Clinic Duty: Phillies 2, Marlins 1
by FuquaManuel on Sep 15, 2010 12:03 AM EDT
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PrintEntering tonight's start, Cole Hamels was riding an impressive 25 inning scoreless streak. With one out in the first, that streak came to an end on a weakly hit RBI single off the bat of Dan Uggla. By the time Cole departed the game with two outs in the 7th, he had started a new scoreless streak--this one 6 1/3 innings.
It's hard to overstate just how dominant Hamels was tonight. Despite struggling with his command a times, the ice cream to the Phillies' ace chipwich (Roy-Cole-Roy, get it?) amassed an incredible 13 strikeouts (11 of them swinging) against only 2 walks in 6.2 innings pitched. In both the 4th and 6th innings he struck out the side. Consider this: 13 of the 20 outs Cole recorded tonight came via the K, which in turn means 7 outs came via balls in play. If Cole gave up 5 base hits tonight, that means the Marlins got hits on 5/12 balls in play--a .416 BABIP! This is why we stat nerds love the strikeout so much; because it can mitigate against a pitcher's occasional bad luck. Cole joined Roy Halladay as the second Phils pitcher with 200+ Ks, breaking his career-high of 196 set in 2008. His fastball, which seemed to have lost a tick during his last appearance--perhaps due to fatigue--sat in the 91-93 mph range all night. Incredibly, Cole used his fastball to record strike three 8 times tonight. Yeah, that's what they mean when they say a pitcher has "a good fastball tonight." The only quibble that can be had is with Cole's pitch count. As is often the case in high-strikeout performances, Cole ran a number of deep counts, particularly in the first 3 innings. He was lifted for Chad Durbin in the bottom of the 7th after throwing 127 pitches.
Of course, with Cole on the mound tonight, it was expected that runs would be hard to come by for the Phillies. The bats flashed a much better approach tonight against rookie righty Adalberto Mendez--who in his first career start held the Phillies to one hit--working 5 walks and chasing him after only 4.2 innings. Still, despite numerous chances (they stranded 12 baserunners on the night) they were only able to plate two runs: the first on a first inning double by Placido Polanco and the second on a Jayson Werth RBI groundout in the fifth. Luckily, that would prove to be enough for Cole. Madson and Lidge, our once again formidable 1-2 punch out of the bullpen, worked scoreless 8th and 9th innings, respectively. Game. Set. Match.
Meanwhile, in Atlanta, the Barves fell 6-0 to the Nationals, fueled by homers from Adam Dunn and...Livan Hernandez. LOL. The Phils move a full two games up on Atlanta in the NL East. Tomorrow, Roy Halladay tries to make it a sweep and attempts to throw his second perfect game of the season in the Marlins' stadium, whatever it's called today.
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I have to admit I became a bit testy when Doebbels came in and couldn’t throw strikes. Didn’t want to see Cole’s masterpiece crapped on by the pen. Luckily, Chad got out of the inning.
Winz is good. I think I will celebrate with a nice Meritage. 2007 wasn’t a very good year, but it sure was cheap!
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Great recap
I was in attendance tonight and I second everything that was already said about Cole’s performance tonight. The Marlins hitters were so far behind his fastball tonight that I kept looking at the gun to see if he was hitting 95….which he wasn’t….had them off balance and waving at his offspeed stuff too.
Steve Jeltz
.210/.308/.268
"The reason why I pointed at (Dawkins) is because he taught me how to play the game the right way. That way was to tackle the guy with the ball; you don't try and catch it. You don't get glory for that but if you punish him, you set the tempo and the tone and it affects the rest of the game. When I pointed at him, it was to give respect for what he showed me over the years.
The more I hear about BABIP, the more I question the way folks interpret it as blind luck. I get the feeling people think whatever happens after the ball leaves a guys bat is blind luck whether it is a hit or an out is made. I suppose that is a mathematical way to look at it.
However, batters do aim for spots, pull, try to hit the other way, shorten swings etc. etc. Sometimes it sounds like people think whatever happens is just the BABIP fairy.
I get the usefulness of the stat, I just hope it is interpreted correctly.
by Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 on Sep 15, 2010 12:22 AM EDT reply actions
Or of course I may not know what I’m talking about/ inadvertently taking the anti-sabremetrics “gotta play the game to know it” stance.
by Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 on Sep 15, 2010 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Yup. Over, say, a 1-game sample size, I think you can legitimately say, “He missed his spots badly tonight and they hit a bunch of line drives against him,” and not have to say that the .400 1-game BABIP makes it purely luck-driven. Of course, in this instance, I think FM was using a 1-game case to prove a larger (or, one might say, larger sample size) point — namely, that strikeouts are awesome.
Exactly.
Just trying to illustrate that over a large sample size, a pitcher who strikes out more guys can get away with having a higher BABIP (i.e. bad luck) because by definition, fewer balls are being put in play. Francisco Liriano is a good example of this. Conversely, David Herndon is a good example of the problem with being a pitcher that doesn’t strike many people out.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
And of course, a pitcher who gets ground balls can get away with a lower strikeout rate because any hits tend not to turn into extra base hits or home runs. Conversely, John Maine is a good example of the problem with being a pitcher that doesn’t get any ground balls.
(Someone had to defend Herndon’s honor!)
Not to mention the ever not suitable, game wasn’t meant to be played in monsoon season we’re to dumb for a dome conditons that the NL, in particular the East, has had to endure for the last 20 years. But I think it just triggered the 2008 WS Beast Mode Monsoon Hamels. 13 K’s only one of which was the pitcher, 2 BB against some potent right handed bats…. post-season hopefuls around the league just took that much more of a collective gulp.
Playing .700+ baseball over the last 52 games will do that….hard to believe we were 48-46 at one point, with only Domonic Brown’s promotion to be excited about!
Steve Jeltz
.210/.308/.268
"The reason why I pointed at (Dawkins) is because he taught me how to play the game the right way. That way was to tackle the guy with the ball; you don't try and catch it. You don't get glory for that but if you punish him, you set the tempo and the tone and it affects the rest of the game. When I pointed at him, it was to give respect for what he showed me over the years.
Yes. The worm turns quickly in this game. Something for all of us to keep in mind in future seasons.
Long time no see, by the way.
Hamels
Cole Hamels is a straight up fuckin beast. I feel bad that I ever doubted him way back in the beginning of the season. Dude is filthy right now. Nobody is gonna touch a Roy-Hamels-Roy rotation come playoff time
Carpenter faltered. Wainwright did not – he gave up 1 run in 8.0 innings, but the lead slipped away after he left the game when Matt Holliday dropped a ball in the outfield. The point is not that “aces falter” – sometimes they do because they’re human, but I’m not so worried about that. The point is that there are many ways for teams to lose games when they have aces on the mound, whether it’s the aces’ fault or not.
Sh*t happens in a short series. There’s a reason why they play 162 games in a baseball season to determine who makes the postseason. Because in baseball the level of random variance in a single game or even in a 10-game stretch is pretty enormous.
Nice article from ESPN.com about Roy Halladay and the Cy Young Award: http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/6760/halladay-has-inside-track-to-cy-young-award.
by phillyinportland on Sep 15, 2010 3:31 AM EDT reply actions
Love the recap title. Great write up. Well done FM.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
I’m glad someone noticed that.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Sep 15, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Uggla made a pair of impressive plays at second base, nailing howard and hamels on should’ve been hits.
Also….do we need a MIA alert for Domonic Brown? Where is this guy?
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