Phillies v. Braves Top Three Starters: I'll Take Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt Anyday
by David S. Cohen on Sep 15, 2010 11:57 AM EDT
Email
PrintWith the Phillies moving Roy Oswalt's start up a day later this week (although keeping him on normal rest), the Phils are poised to use no one other than their devastatingly good three-headed monster of Oswalt, Roy Halladay, and Cole Hamels in both of the remaining series against the Braves.
And that's bad news for the Braves. Even more to the point, it's bad news even if the Braves throw their top three starters at the Phillies -- Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, and Derek Lowe.
Comparing both teams' top three starters makes it painfully obvious how much better the Phillies' top starters are than the Braves. In fact, a good argument can be made that there isn't a single Braves top-3 starter that is preferable to a single Phillies top-3 starter.
Here are the stats through the entire season (with Roy Oswalt's stats for the entire year, not just when he was a Phillie):
| Phillies | IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | OPS | WAR |
| Roy Halladay | 228.67 | 2.44 | 3.03 | 2.91 | 1.05 | 7.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.650 | 6.2 |
| Cole Hamels | 194.67 | 3.01 | 3.62 | 3.38 | 1.16 | 9.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.682 | 3.8 |
| Roy Oswalt | 192.67 | 2.94 | 3.42 | 3.51 | 1.05 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.625 | 4.0 |
| Braves | IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | OPS | WAR |
| Tim Hudson | 203 | 2.62 | 3.81 | 3.79 | 1.13 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.623 | 3.2 |
| Tommy Hanson | 178 | 3.54 | 3.35 | 4.10 | 1.20 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.665 | 3.8 |
| Derek Lowe | 177 | 4.22 | 4.02 | 3.76 | 1.39 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.743 | 2.3 |
As a unit, the comparison isn't even close. The highest Phillies' ERA is 3.01, the highest WHIP is 1.16, and the lowest WAR is 3.8. Only Tim Hudson can break into the ERA and WHIP class of the Phillies' top-3, but he hasn't had the same overall value this year, with a WAR of only 3.2. Tommy Hanson, with his higher ERA and WHIP, actually has a higher WAR, tying Cole Hamels at 3.8.
Looking at each pitcher individually, is there a single Braves starter you would want this year over one of the Phillies? The only argument that can really be made is that Tim Hudson, with his 2.62 ERA, could qualify, either to replace Hamels or Oswalt. However, that's a stretch, as Hudson's peripherals indicate he just hasn't pitched to match the ERA he's put up -- his K/9 is the lowest of the six pitchers here, and his BB/9 is the second highest. He's been absurdly lucky so far, as his BABIP for the year is .256, way below his career average of .284. Ultimately, he's had less value to the Braves (as measured by WAR) than any of the Phillies' top-3. No thanks, I'll stick with each of the Phillies' pitchers.
But, you're a Braves fan, and you think to yourself that this season-long comparison isn't right, as the Braves' pitchers have been better in the second half. Well, let's look at the post-All Star break comparison. Note, I don't have the FIP, xFIP, and WAR splis for post-All Star break, so this chart isn't as detailed, but it still does the trick:
| Phillies | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | OPS |
| Roy Halladay | 80.67 | 2.90 | 1.04 | 8.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.678 |
| Cole Hamels | 82.67 | 1.96 | 0.93 | 10.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.561 |
| Roy Oswalt | 63.67 | 1.98 | 0.93 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.570 |
| Braves | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | OPS |
| Tim Hudson | 81.67 | 3.09 | 1.13 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.641 |
| Tommy Hanson | 75.67 | 2.74 | 0.98 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.581 |
| Derek Lowe | 63.33 | 3.98 | 1.36 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.756 |
Again, the Phillies' top-3 as a group blows away the top-3 starters for the Braves. Hamels and Oswalt have been even more incredible in the second half than Hanson has been. And, is there anyone on the planet who would take Hanson over Halladay, even though Halladay's second half has been, by most metrics, slightly worse? I didn't think so.
The Phillies' top-3 has been incredible this year. As a whole, they are clearly heads above the top-3 starters the Braves have. And, individually, there's really very little argument that any one of the top-3 Braves' starters belongs with the Phillies' top-3.
Starting pitching? Advantage Phillies . . . by a long shot.
239 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
? If that’s directed at me, no disrespect was intended towards David.
by Boundforbeach on Sep 15, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d assume that WC’s comment was more directed at the hail storm of insults we’re about to have thrown our way by fans of a certain team that may not like David’s conclusion here.
by PhillyFriar on Sep 15, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
What PhillyFriar said.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Sep 15, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d just as soon let the stats speak for themselves, call the rest of the season, hoist division flag, and get into the playoff crapshoot.
by Wet Luzinski on Sep 15, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Was thinking about the rotation comparison this morning and reached the same conclusion: I’d order the ten pitchers as our top three, their top four (the three you name and Jurrjens), Blanton, their #5, and Kendrick.
I’d take our lineup too, and at this point our bench. (Given how awful said bench seemed for stretches this year, I’m pretty thrilled to have Gload/Francisco/Sweeney/Brown as late-game weapons, and Exxon and Schneider are find for what they are.) On balance I think you have to give them the edge for bullpen, though Madson/Lidge look pretty strong right now.
Also: eff them, their whiny manager and their stay-at-home, ignorant, obnoxious pseudo-fans. I hate the friggin Braves.
To be honest, I’d take Blanton over Jurrjens even. Blanton’s fielding independent stats are better than Jurrjens this season, and his xFIP last season is better than Jurrjens’ was. At the very least, the two pitchers are close enough to make it a wash.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Sep 15, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, no doubt. Blanton is closer to Hudson and Lowe than he is to Jurrjens. Jurrjens simply isn’t that good of a pitcher and never has been. (He’s still young though, so I could see him developing into a solidly above-average starter down the road.)
Yeah. Although, in Jurrjens’ defense, his FIP might tell a fuller story because he has shown the ability over a fairly large sample size to limit home runs, which is interesting because he doesn’t show very extreme ground ball tendencies at all.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Sep 15, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Jurrjens simply isn’t that good of a pitcher and never has been.
2009: 215 IP, 14-10, 2.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .237 BAA
"Baseball is like church. Many attend but few understand."
You can argue that Jair’s advanced stats indicate that he won’t ever be as good as he was in ‘09 again or that his ERA might have been lower than it should have, but to say that he’s never been a good pitcher is just ignorant on your part and clearly indicates that you are either a) Too biased against the Braves to make a reasonable observation or b) Didn’t watch Jurrjens pitch last year.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend but few understand."
but to say that he’s never been a good that good of pitcher is just ignorant on your part
Better?
"Baseball is like church. Many attend but few understand."
No, because my statement was accurate and yours is inaccurate.
The word “that” is a word that indicates a relative comparison. Compared to the milieu of pitcher that we were discussing above, Jurrjens really isn’t that good. He is not as good as Joe Blanton and he certainly isn’t anywhere near the Phillies’ top three.
If you look at advanced statistics, Jurrjens is no better than an average major league starting pitcher. That may make him a “good pitcher” in some sense, but when what we’re discussing is a comparison with the Phillies’ top four, he isn’t that good. I’m sorry to burst your bubble, but that is the truth. You have cited zero evidence that would show otherwise. Flawed stats such as W-L record, ERA, etc. are not going to cut it, nor is your empty snark. Give some facts if you actually want anyone to think you’re right.
I don't want to go back and forth with you on this anymore
I certainly wasn’t arguing that JJ was anywhere close to the level of Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt. (For the record I’d take 1. Halladay 2. Oswalt 3. Hudson 4. Hamels 5. Hanson) “That good” is a completely relative term so I guess its pointless to argue about it. It’s also just your opinion on what are “flawed stats” and what aren’t. I think everyone would agree that W-L is pretty flawed but you can’t act like the ERA of a pitcher doesn’t mean shit.
Give some facts if you actually want anyone to think you’re right.
If you’re going to make this about JJ vs. Blanton, the stats are clear.
Here is me giving some facts:
Blanton Career FIP: 4.47, xFIP: 4.38, ERA: 4.31
Jurrjens Career FIP: 3.85, xFIP: 4.30, ERA: 3.52
And if you’re going to say that JJ “never has been that good of a pitcher” in relation to the Philly staff, I’m sure you’d be interested to find that his FIP in 2009 was below both Hamels’ and Oswalt’s.
Good day. You’d be hard pressed to find a moderator being this much of a jackass on TC, given that I didn’t post on this board in an inflammatory manner. (See the 13 year old troll below)
"Baseball is like church. Many attend but few understand."
ERA isn’t meaningless, but it is folly to look at it when you have xFIP available to you. ERA doesn’t add any meaningful information beyond that conveyed by xFIP. It is only a weaker version of that stat.
Career xFIP would be of interest if what we were discussing was “Who’s likely to have a better career?” But that is not what we are discussing. What we are discussing is “Which pitcher is better in 2010?” I already stated that Jurrjens may develop into an above-average pitcher someday. But Blanton is at his peak now and Jurrjens isn’t. Jurrjens has never been as good of a pitcher as Blanton is now.
Your comparisons of career stats also fail to take into consideration the fact that Blanton pitched against a DH for more than half of his career, while Jurrjens hasn’t.
Your point about 2009 FIPs is also a bad argument because FIP does not control for park factors, and neutralizes luck far less than xFIP does. There’s a reason why xFIP exists. I take it that the reason why you selectively cited Jurrjens’ ’09 FIP and not his xFIP is that the xFIP, despite being a better metric, does not support your preconceived conclusion. While it is possible that Jurrjens has some sort of unusual skill at depressing his HR/FB, it is unlikely that his low HR/FB rates are explainable entirely by skill, and not also by a substantial amount of luck.
If you don’t want to be criticized harshly in the future, perhaps you shouldn’t use statistics in a dishonest manner in the future. The fact that your tone may not have been as inflammatory as the 13-year-old’s doesn’t mean that you didn’t deserve the criticism you received. You should expect to be judged on your content as well as your tone.
What we are discussing is "Which pitcher is better in 2010?"
I was refuting your statement that Jurrjens “has never been that good of a pitcher”. I’d take 2010 Blanton over 2010 JJ any day. He’s been absolutely terrible this season.
You’re right, I should have included xFIP because FIP doesn’t account for the difference between Citizen’s Bank/Minute Maid/Turner Field.
I think what it comes down to is that I think Jurrjens does have an uncanny ability to limit homeruns (or at least in 09) and I think his xFIP doesn’t reflect that because the stat isn’t subjective (not that it should be). You obviously think that Jurrjen’s success in the 2009 season was more due to luck/ballpark factors than to his skill, hence your reliance on xFIP. I suppose we’ll find out over the course of JJ’s career.
"Baseball is like church. Many attend but few understand."
I was refuting your statement that Jurrjens "has never been that good of a pitcher".
Right, but my point was that the 2009 Jurrjens wasn’t “that good” i.e. as good as the 2010 Blanton. A comparison between Jurrjens’ career stats and Blanton’s career stats can’t disprove my point, because (a) I was never comparing 2009 Jurrjens to Blanton’s career avgs to begin with, and (b) in any event, Blanton’s career avgs are distorted because many of them were compiled in a more offensive era and league than that in which Jurrjens compiled most of his stats. In fact, even a comparison between Jurrjens’ 2009 stats and Blanton’s career stats wouldn’t be able to disprove my point.
Anyway, we’ve beaten this horse to death so let’s just drop it.
Jurrjens has had an uncanny ability to limit home runs over the course of his major league career, and while I’m sure that stadium undoubtedly helps him, I think we still have to credit him to an extent for having a home run suppressing skill. Or, in simpler terms, Jurrjens’ FIP might be a more accurate indicator of his ability than his xFIP.
That said, even an ability to limit HR/FB% is mitigated by Jurrjens’ continuously declining ground ball rate. He’s essentially posted the same strikeout and walk ratios over the past 3 seasons, but his GB% slipped from a fantastic 51.5% in 2008 (when he sported a spiffy 3.59 FIP) to a below average 39.9% this year (when he sports an alright 4.20 FIP).
In other words, while our own Cookies exhibits more standard vulnerability to the home run, his higher strikeout, lower walk, and (now even) higher ground ball rate probably make it a wash between the two, as you said, FM.
by PhillyFriar on Sep 15, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Damn. Jinx!
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Sep 15, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Jinx yourself, I beat you by a solid 15 seconds!
by PhillyFriar on Sep 15, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Then I’ve got some serious lag going on over here.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Sep 15, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Could be me. Just hope it’s my Internet and not my fiance’s brand new computer, because I’ll probably get in trouble if I’m slowing this thing down two weeks after getting it…
by PhillyFriar on Sep 15, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Honestly, I’m trying to get a fair record down in this discussion in case any Braves fans stumble across this. I don’t want to give them even one iota of fuel to say that we’re underselling their players.
In that vein, I suppose we could argue that Tommy Hanson could have some ability to limit HR/FB% as well, but I’d argue that the sample isn’t yet big enough on him to draw any conclusions. And we certainly have to take park factors into account — although Turner field isn’t as extreme as McAfee Coliseum, it’s interesting to see that Blanton had significantly lower HR/FB% in Oakland that regressed to the mean when he moved to Philly.
by PhillyFriar on Sep 15, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Would SIERA be more reliable? I must confess that I still don’t really understand how SIERA is calculated.
You know, I’m not sure. I know that SIERA accounts for the smaller effect that fly ball rate (and thus, home runs) has on strikeout pitchers, but I don’t know if it uses any sort of normalized (xFIP-style) HR/FB% or just takes a pitcher’s actual home runs allowed (FIP-style).
Or, in other words…
by PhillyFriar on Sep 15, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
The first question is that while I think that the Matt-signal seems to work great, I’m curious how often I miss it? I only know that I seem to stumble across it a lot.
Nextly, let’s talk SIERA, xFIP, HR/FB, and Jurrjens…
To understand what SIERA does (don’t worry about the math), you need to contrast it with what xFIP and FIP do.
FIP say that okay 1 home runs = 1.4 runs on average, 1 strikeout = -0.3 runs on average, 1 walk = 0.3 runs on average, and then it says suppose that all balls in play outcomes are equal to the league average for everyone. How many earned runs per nine does that pitcher give up?
xFIP says all that stuff too but says that since pitchers don’t control HR/FB, just assume that the league average rate of fly balls turn into home runs, and those are worth 1.4 runs on average…and redo the FIP.
What SIERA does is say how many earned runs do pitchers give up nowadays when they have this combination of GB/FB, K, and BB rates? That does a couple nice things. One is that it allows ground balls to help pitchers who need double plays more and fly balls hurt pitchers who allow lots of baserunners more. Another main thing is that if a pitcher has a skill that is CORRELATED with one of those things but isn’t included in the formula, it will affect SIERA. Specifically, strikeout pitchers have lower BABIPs. So lower BABIPs mean that just saying 1 K = -0.3 runs is going to underestimate the effect. The reality is that K’s indicate that the pitcher got some outs but that he also probably allowed fewer hits when the ball was put in play. So strikeout pitchers can do very well with SIERA. So can ground ball pitchers. Guys like Hudson and prime-Johan have better SIERAs than xFIPs.
The BABIP thing that SIERA does might or might not work for HR/FB. It would require more research. The question is if ground ball pitchers, strikeout pitchers, or control pitchers have different HR/FB than the rest of the league. If they do, then SIERA will attribute that to them.
Jurrjens is average at just about all skills and SIERA has randomly deposited him right around the middle, 4.38 SIERAs two years in a row after 4.16 in 08. Now, people might be inclined to say in both 08 and 09, Jurrjens beat his peripherals by a lot, so he’s going to be underestimated by these indicators. That’s possible. What’s also possible is that a certain fraction of the league will get lucky two years in a row. That could have been the case with Jurrjens. Maybe he’s just average. If so, he’s worse than Blanton. Blanton’s SIERA is about 4.1 right now.
The BABIP thing that SIERA does might or might not work for HR/FB. It would require more research. The question is if ground ball pitchers, strikeout pitchers, or control pitchers have different HR/FB than the rest of the league. If they do, then SIERA will attribute that to them.
So basically, if it turns out that an ability to limit HR/FB% is correlated in any way to the ability to get ground balls, strikeouts, or show above-average control, then SIERA will sort of automatically account for it. Am I reading that right?
I guess the follow up question would be: how does SIERA look at somebody like Matt Cain? I know the park helps, but he’s suppressed home runs very successfully over the course of his entire career, and he does it with solid but unspectacular K, BB, and GB rates. I guess the issue is whether SIERA does anything to “recognize” guys with long-term HR/FB% skill demonstration, in the way that FIP sort of inadvertently does.
You are reading that right.
SIERA will not pick up on Cain. But keep in mind that Cain might just be really lucky. Someone in the league is the luckiest player in terms of career HR/FB. Someone in the league is best player at suppressing HR/FB. I’m not sure we have a great way to figure out which is which, but there are a lot more lucky HR/FB guys than skillful HR/FB guys. SIERA isn’t going to pick up on Cain. Only people with ground ball, control, or strkeout skills if those correlate with HR/FB suppression skill.
Essentially, there are too few true outliers to incorporate anything purporting to account for them into a predictive stat like SIERA.
I wonder at what point we can say that the HR/FB% sample size becomes large enough to signify a trend? Some sort of benchmark would help us consider whether Cain or Jurrjens are demonstrating a skill, and not luck.
Tom Tango had something on this a few months. I think the answer was that if you saw a pitchers numbers over like 4 or 5 years, you could consider the difference between league average and the career numbers to be half luck, half skill.
by Matt Swartz on Sep 15, 2010 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Great post. And undeniably accurate. The numbers say what they say.
In fact, I honestly think it’s a legitimate open question where those guys measure up in comparison to Joe Blanton. Personally, I would take all three of the Braves’ starters over Blanton, but it’s a much closer call than some might think. (Of course, I think Hanson will turn into a much better pitcher than Blanton eventually, but I’m just talking about right now.)
I love the post ASB argument Braves fans have been using. Post ASB, Roy Halladay (one of the Cy Young favorites) is our 3rd best pitcher.
that just makes us sound better
Kolb - a heavy medieval war club with a spiked or flanged metal head, used to crush armor - Wikipedia of course
I've been waiting my whole life for an Eagles Championship
RIP JJ
by sports00fan00 on Sep 15, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
1-6-5-4 DP off Lannan’s glove to erase a 2 men on with 1 out.
by PhillyFriar on Sep 15, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Whoops, make that 1-6-4-3 DP.
(Although, a 1-6-5-4 DP would be really impressive.)
by PhillyFriar on Sep 15, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought I’d stretch the sample size back to last year to see what that would show. I think this probably improves the accuracy of the data here, although it’s a bit of a case-by-case judgment call. I also included SIERA, on the theory that perhaps it would help mitigate the FIP/xFIP issue discussed above, although I’m not sure if that’s the case.
I excluded Minor since he doesn’t have a sufficient sample, plus Kendrick since I think no one will debate that he’s the worst of the group.
xFIP rankings (2009-2010)
1. Halladay (2.98)
2. Hamels (3.53)
3. Oswalt (3.68)
4. Hudson (3.73)
5. Lowe (3.98)
6. Hanson (4.07)
7. Blanton (4.11)
8. Jurrjens (4.49)
SIERA rankings (2009-2010)
1. Halladay (3.01)
2. Hamels (3.33)
3. Hudson (3.60)
4. Oswalt (3.61)
5. Hanson (3.72)
6. Blanton (3.99)
7. Lowe (4.07)
8. Jurrjens (4.38)
Wow, SIERA likes Blanton even more than xFIP.
Good stuff here, definitely helps give an even more well-rounded view of the issue. Also…
I excluded Minor since he doesn’t have a sufficient sample…
Understandable, though we should certainly mention that Minor’s early numbers look really, really good. I didn’t like the draft pick when the Braves made it (or, more accurately, I liked it as a Phillies fan), but he’s far exceeded any expectations this year in both velocity and strikeout rate. I’d still argue that he doesn’t profile as an ace, but there’s a lot to like about the kid, and he could insert his name into this list fairly quickly if his performance holds up the second and third time around the league.
by PhillyFriar on Sep 15, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
David, where are your numbers from? They don’t match BB-Ref’s particularly closely, although they changed their numbers today: http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8264
BB-Ref rankings:
6.7 Halladay (#1 in NL)
5.3 Hudson (#4)
4.8 Hamels (#6)
4.4 Oswalt (t-#9)
1.5 Hanson
0.0 Jurrjens
I’d assume David is using the Fangraphs numbers.
by PhillyFriar on Sep 15, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I should clarify
I’m referring to WAR specifically.
Yup, I got my WAR numbers from Fangraphs.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 15, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
how about San Fran when Lincecum is back on his game?
by Boundforbeach on Sep 15, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Bumgarner hasn’t pitched much this year has he? I was thinking Sanchez as well, but they have a real debate as to who to start as their top 3 if they make the postseason.
by Boundforbeach on Sep 15, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
No, you’re right, he hasn’t. I think he is ahead of Sanchez ability-wise, but similar to Mike Minor, it’s hard to get a handle on how to rate him at this point since he’s still getting accustomed to the big leagues.
But if he puts it together soon (or if he has already put it together), the Giants will have (or already have) a monster rotation, because he is a pretty big talent.
cards can throw weignright / carpender at you
Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Sep 15, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Cardinals top two matches up, but Garcia doesn’t.
Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez is really good, but falls short at the third spot as well.
Yankees, Rays, Rangers, Twins, Rockies, and definitely Reds don’t stack up, if we’re looking at other potential playoff teams.
So… like TP, I can’t think of one. Would have to think whether any four-man rotation beats the Big Three with Blanton.
by PhillyFriar on Sep 15, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Nah, 4 is too hard :)
Just off the top of my head, I have a hard time coming up with any top 3 that’s this good since Mulder, Hudson and Zito in their prime. And they had a pitcher’s park and lacked the outstanding peripherals that these guys have. Do you have to go back to Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz? I’m probably forgetting some teams…
Per Oswalt’s recent quote, one might consider the Oswalt-Pettitte-Roided Clemens trio of 2005 or so. But I’d go with what we’ve got.
Well, we have a better rotation but the people in Atlanta have real lives. A classic comment from Talking Chop just a few minutes ago.
Look at big baseball markets, except New York, and the level of education. Sorry but people in Atlanta have family, lives, businesses that they care about more than baseball. People in Philly and Boston are statistically more depressed and NEED baseball to not go insane.
by BeatTehMets on Sep 15, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it’s a pretty common sentiment among Southerners. Needless to say, it isn’t true. The truth is that they just prefer different sports, most notably college football.
This is a good write up
I’m a Bravos fan and I don’t need to look at the stats to know that Halladay is literally out of this world and handily beats out any of our starters or basically any starter on any other team in the league. The numbers are what they are, but that said, the Braves have solid starting pitching even despite recent struggles. Nonetheless, the series in Philly next week has the potential to be disastrous for us if some of our guys don’t step up.
Also, as an Atlanta resident for ten years, allow me to give you the real reasons for our lack of attendance. I think it’s hard for the northeast to imagine a winning ballclub with low attendance, but the truth is that Atlanta and really all of Georgia and the southeast will never be a baseball region. Ever. Native Georgians grow up loving collge football and you get as much passion for the Bulldogs down here that they have for the Red Sox in
Boston. It’s a religion here. I personally cant stand college football, but have accepted that it is a way of life.
Also- a lot of people who live in Atlanta are not from Atlanta. They move here from the northeast or Midwest like myself and thus are loyal to their hometown teams over the Braves. I see Phillies, Mets, Yankees and Sox fans all the time. Hell, I see Mariners and Angels jerseys somewhat frequently which is surprising given how far away they are. There’s a lot of displaced fans that really have no loyalty to the Braves. Alternativley, there’s a lot of displaced Braves fans who love the team because they grew up watching them on TBS but don’t live in Atlanta and can’t get to games.
Of course, we do have a terrible public transit
system here and it makes getting to games inefficient and difficult. But that’s a topic for another day and one I have strong feelings about. But there are reasons that the Braves have lower attendance and those reasons don’t include being “obnoxious psudo-fans”. There are some diehards here like myself. And to me, the diehards are the only fans that matter.
by E-Lizz on Sep 16, 2010 2:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Thanks. You sound like the most intelligent Braves fan we’ve seen in these parts. I hear you’ve been taking some steps to improve your transit system. Hope that goes well.
I love reading Talking Chop
But don’t post as much as others do. With open blogs like these, you get a lot of legit fans who study sabermetrics and make intelligent posts, but you also get a lot of duds who post off emotion or what ESPN told them. It’s the reality of sports blogs unfortunately.
Unfortunately Atlanta is such a commuter city it’s harder to entice people to take public transit. I heard talk of them getting rid of the Braves shuttle from downtown which I think ia horrible. But the funding just isn’t there and the transit system is so limited to certain parts of the city. It is what it is, but the reality is that Atlanta grew way too big, way too fast.
by E-Lizz on Sep 16, 2010 2:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No offense to Atlanta, but I’ll take ‘level of education’ in Philadlephia or New York over Atlanta any day of the week and twice on Caturday
by SportingFanaticism on Sep 15, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
ha
Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Sep 15, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL!
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Sep 15, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Interestingly, I’ve known a few native Atlantans and none of them have ever been Georgia Tech fans. They all seem to root for Georgia. None of them went to either school.
Interesting that the poster mentions depression, because based on a study that was done by Business Week about a year ago, Atlanta was ranked as the 10th most depressed city in the county. Philly and Boston were not even in the top 20. Which is all the report ranked.
As for Education, that is somewhat subjective but based on every study I have seen, Philadelphia’s national scores are higher than Atlanta’s and have been for sometime. Though Atlanta’s are improving.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Philadelphia certainly has superior higher education, for whatever that’s worth. Not that Atlanta’s colleges are bad.
I dub this the
Andy Kaufman thread.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 15, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
new TGP banner: The Good Phight – Needing Baseball to be Statistically Less Insane, Yet More Depressed
maybe we’ll put that in the can for next June/Slumpuary
by Wet Luzinski on Sep 15, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
to play devil's advocate for a bit...
are the groundball tendencies of Hudson and Lowe reflected in FIP/xFIP/SIERA? they have by far the highest GB/FB ratios in the majors this year, per Fangraphs.
I think Lowe is clearly in a lower tier than the top four here, so I’m asking this more w/r/t Hudson.
FIP’s just a formula based on Ks, walks and homers, so no.
My understanding of xFIP is that it uses expected home runs based on fly ball rate, assigning the league average HR/FB%, so yes.
Yup, exactly.
SIERA is a more complicated formula, but per the under-the-hood article that our blogger emeritus wrote with Eric Seidman, it accounts for ground ball tendencies in a couple of different ways…
1. Allows for the fact that a high ground-ball rate is more useful to pitchers who walk more batters, due to the potential that double plays wipe away runners….
4. Allows for the fact that adding ground balls is more useful when you already allow a lot of ground balls because there are frequently runners on first.
5. Corrects for the fact that QERA used GB/BIP instead of GB/PA (e.g. Joel Pineiro is all contact, so increasing his ground-ball rate means more ground balls than if Oliver Perez had done it, given he’s not a high contact guy).
I’m certainly missing details here, but the overarching point is that SIERA does take ground ball tendencies into account.
…but in the case of Hudson, the distinction is irrelevant, since his HR/FB is right at the league average (which is why his FIP and xFIP are the same). So the short answer is really no, it doesn’t care that he’s a groundball pitcher. His FIP is high because his K/BB isn’t great and his BABIP is, that’s all.
This doesn’t really answer your question, but:
1. Hudson appears to be one of these Matt Cain types in that his ERA is almost always a bit lower than his xFIP
2. However, the discrepancy this year is significantly larger even than his career norms, even though his GB rate is only a tad higher than it usually is. So either his fielders this year suddenly got way better, or he’s getting very lucky if perhaps not to the full degree that the xFIP-ERA might suggest at first glance.
By the way, I liked this graphic that they had on Fangraphs a while back (between the fifth and sixth paragraphs).
Hudson has induced an inordinate number of ground balls this year that have gone right to the second baseman. Not up the middle, not in the right-side hole – right at the fielder. That strikes me as being clearly flukish.
those are some pretty fascinating graphs. good link.
by perfectdepth on Sep 15, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Switch it up TP – Nationals 4, Braves 2.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 15, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Best in the NL
Heyman’s new article. Gives us lots of love, particularly because of our top trio of starters.
“This Philly team, which is 11-3 in September and overtook the Braves in the East, could make it three straight World Series appearances. It is creating such a stir partly because of its revival but mostly because of its vaunted top trio in the rotation of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. Oswalt makes a nice replacement for ex-Phillie Cliff Lee, who was traded away last winter.
“If I was a real smart guy we’d have all four of ‘em,’’ Phillies GM Ruben Amaro said, good-naturedly.”
/joking smug’d
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/09/14/wednesday.scoop/index.html?eref=sihp
Can we get a smug-level ruling on this please?
"I tried to run him over but Eli had his big boy pads on and he kind of stopped me from getting in the end zone. The next time I’ll try to jump over his head.’’ - Asante Samuel
What would we do with all 4?
Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Sep 15, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Not be satisfied with a 100-win year or a 7-game lead at any point in the season.
by phillyinportland on Sep 16, 2010 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Jesus, what a play by Zimmerman. Made a diving throw to stop Infante from legging out a bunt hit, but did move Hinske to third with just one out.
I have Ryan Zimmerman envy. I want one.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 15, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Most people don’t realize how good he really is. Better than David Wright at this point, and really just a touch shy of Evan Longoria status.
Zimmerman and Dunn together are almost enough to make me a Nationalist.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 15, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Let’s go nationals(-zimmerman, i’m playing him in fantasy semi-finals)
Kolb - a heavy medieval war club with a spiked or flanged metal head, used to crush armor - Wikipedia of course
I've been waiting my whole life for an Eagles Championship
RIP JJ
by sports00fan00 on Sep 15, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
This is true. I freakin hated that guy. Zimmerman first pitch swinging, must be taking lessons from Shane.
by FearTheTurtIe on Sep 15, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. I really hope not though. It would make Braves fans super pleased.
by FearTheTurtIe on Sep 15, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
this is the college team atl fans rout for
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GJVxFP19Gs
ATL folks should never bring up their education
Have you seen this? This kind of scares me on many levels, but it is shockingly well done.
by Wet Luzinski on Sep 15, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
by % they actually already had the 3rd best record behind us and SD, now they are 4th behind Cincy as well…
by PSUcup1 on Sep 15, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
There’s a possibility that these last six games will turn out to be less of the showdown for first place that we’ve all been waiting for than an opportunity for the Phils to knock the Braves clear out of the postseason. That would be funny.
I have been struggling with this sentiment
If the Phillies were to make the postseason who would the fans rather they end up facing? The Giants or Rockies in the wild card? Or would we rather the braves win the wild card and they end up playing the padres or reds in the first round? As much as I hate the braves, this does present a dilemma to me. Anyone else?
by PhilsForever on Sep 15, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Somewhat. But I think it’s always a bad idea to try less than your best. It’s OK to rest players for the postseason if your sole motivation is to keep them sharp, but apart from that, you should always play to win the game and let the chips fall.
oh no, i get that
I was not suggesting the Phillies should let up if they have the braves back enough. I was just saying I am struggling with what matchup I would prefer they have in the playoffs as a fan.
by PhilsForever on Sep 15, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t mean to belittle them at all, but I’d definitely rather face the Padres than any other team out there in the NL field. Their bullpen is nasty and Latos is really good, but they don’t match up with our rotation past Latos, and they obviously struggle to score runs.
I would tend to agree
In fact, the ideal playoff situation for the Phililes would be the Giants win the nl west and the padres win the wild card. That would just be too good to be true.
by PhilsForever on Sep 15, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Not the Rockies. Coors Field is ridculous. Padres. We seem too play well out there and they don’t really have alot other than Latos starter-wise, unless Chris Young gets back but I doubt that will happen. Plus things have to roll their way more so than other teams for them to score runs.
also Carlos Gonzalez has a batting average of approximately eight billion against us. I’ll pass…
by perfectdepth on Sep 15, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Tulowitzki has been earning his spot on my roto team after that injury. He’s been insanely good over the last couple of weeks:
Tulowitzki, Troy SS COL 9HR 0.3934OBP 16R 20RBI 1SB-CS
Heyward has been good, too: 1HR 0.5312OBP 7R 4RBI -1SB-CS
The numbers are only my starts for them over the last 14 days, but Tulo has started every day. Heyward’s OBP is ridiculous. As he gets bigger and slugs more, he’s going to be a nightmare for years to come.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 15, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
You play to win the game
Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Sep 15, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Just hoping that the Lannan/Burnett/Storen combo isn’t quite as pesky when the Phils face the Nats.
What a gigantic turn of events over the past few weeks.
This may be the lineup for the foreseeable future. Everything i read and hear, J-Roll does not sound too confident that he is returning soon or that he will be 100% when he does.
Supposedly he is available to PH tonight.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Should he be running the bases? By the way, do you know if it’s the same leg that had the calf strains?
I wonder the answer to the first one myself, I would think no. I guess their thought is that one trip around the bases at most won’t do too much to hurt him. As for the injury itself, I am honestly not sure.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
Halladay tonight...
Is there a more perfect pitcher to have on the mound tonight knowing how huge this game is?
by phanatic's phloozies on Sep 15, 2010 3:06 PM EDT reply actions
Hamels or Oswalt
Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Sep 15, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
those fans dropped that team faster than… (insert something clever here)
by PHIGHTINPHILS on Sep 15, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
the Nats are an odd team
living in DC, I see them a lot, and they’ll look like a solid team at times and then utterly lost the next game. they’d lost 6 straight before these last two wins over the Braves.
the prospect of a Kendrick start concerns me a bit, because the Nats have just owned him this year. small sample size, of course, but 21 hits & 16 runs in 11+ innings.
I agree, I also live in DC and see them quite a bit and I always get the impression that they have the ability to be a much better team than they are. They tend to destroy good teams and play subpar against bad teams….
By the way, the Orioles are looking scary now. Who knew that Buck could turn that around so quick.
by PhilliesPhan610 on Sep 15, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Andy MacPhail
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
by EREX21 on Sep 15, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I concur. It’s tough to make anything of them. I’ve been watching them since I went back to school in August, and it really is an odd disparity. Their lineup really isn’t that bad, and has a great 3-4 punch in Zimmerman and Dunn. They have the 11th best OPS and 10th best BA in the NL, which isn’t that great, until you consider that they are the 3rd worst team in the NL. Their pitching is really their weak point, but has the potential to be much better, with Strasburg, Lannan, and Marquis (who is having an awful year). I do think they have the potential to be much better, and they were a pleasure to watch during this series.
by FearTheTurtIe on Sep 15, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I think their low-on base really hurts them. outside of Dunn/Zimmerman/Willingham, their regulars all have OBPs between .296 (Rodriguez) and .319 (Morgan).
by perfectdepth on Sep 15, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
And Jordan Zimmerman is just getting back in the saddle after Tommy John.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 15, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
The Braves and the Wild Card
Until recently, I’d assumed that the Braves were a shoo-in for the playoffs, either as the NL East champs or the Wild Card if the Phils win the division. But, now, it’s looking more and more possible that the Braves might not even make the playoffs. They’re falling (5-9 in their last 14), they’re now 2.5 behind the Phillies, and only 1 up on the Giants.
The Braves might just be sitting at home come October.
It would be particularly amusing if (1) we are the ones who do it to them, and (2) we do it to them gratuitously, after we already have our spot locked up.
by taco pal on Sep 15, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Point two may indeed happen if Charlie feels that winning the division is not enough and that th goal is now to finish with the best record in the NL so as to allow for the possibility of a more favorable post season schedule.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
If you have a chance to rest of the big 3 and you do it. Sending an ace on the mound with your postseason locked up just trying to get best record is not the way to go. I would rather go on the road for the first 2 games and send a fresh Halladay / Hamels at them.
Hey Dez, it's 2am do you know where your mother is?
by sowhatifitisasportste on Sep 15, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Bobby Cox.
oops, you asked why it wouldn’t be the objective
never mind
by Wet Luzinski on Sep 15, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
That might be a possibility if another team makes a run at the best record in the NL and the Phillies are reluctant to give that up (primarily for the choice of 5 games in 8 days vs 7 days).
Amen. And it’d be even better if someone made Chipper watch from the dugout..
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 15, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean, after they did it to us for so many years, I think it’s only proper to return the favor many times over.
by ThinMountainAir on Sep 15, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Schedule strength could play an important role here. We had the idea for awhile that the NL West teams would sort of knock each other off so that only one team would come out of that division, but that’s not necessarily the case. Witness the remaining schedules of the current Wild Card and NL West contenders (opponent’s winning percentage in parentheses)…
Atlanta (.503): @ NYM (3); @ PHI (3); @ WAS (3); vs. FLA (3); vs. PHI (3)
San Diego (.521): @ COL (in progress); @ STL (4); @ LA (3); vs. CIN (3); vs. CHC (4); @SF (3)
San Fran (.485): vs. LAD (2); vs. MIL (3); @ CHC (3); @ COL (3); vs. ARI (3); vs. SD (3)
Colorado (.506): vs. SD (in progress); @ LA (3); @ ARI (3); vs. SF (3); vs. LAD (3); @ STL (4)
Make of that what you will, but I’d venture to say that nobody has 6 games left as difficult as the Braves’ against the Phillies’ three aces. Games against the Mets and Nats should certainly help — those teams are worse off than the Dodgers and various NL Central clubs that pepper the other teams’ schedules — but as we saw today, it’s a funny old game.
come on
We all know the Mets are gonna lay down for the braves that series unfortunately.
by PhilsForever on Sep 15, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably, but you never know. The Braves might be intent on outdoing them in that regard.
Matchups:
Fri – Jon Niese vs. Tommy Hanson
Sat – Daniel Gee vs. Tim Hudson
Sun – R.A. Dickey vs. Derek Lowe
If Cox wanted to, he could flip Lowe with Jurrjens so that Lowe would instead be able to start the Monday game against the Phillies on six days’ rest. (Jurrjens would have four days’ rest if he pitched on Sunday vs. NY.) I don’t know if that would necessarily be wise for Atlanta though.
But, but, but.....CLIFF LEE!!!!!
Cliff Lee, Cliff Lee, Cliff Lee!!!!
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 15, 2010 4:05 PM EDT reply actions
But….the Phillies could have had Halladay, Oswalt AND Lee!!!!!! And Galactus hitting clean-up!!!!!
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 15, 2010 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Put a subject line on those sorts of things next time, please — let’s others minimize them. Galactus is kind of big.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 15, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
By the way...
Yall PhilPhucks don’t have a dammmm chance! Stats don’t mean nothin if you got the spirit of Bobby Cox! We will come back, and we will WIN! don’t care if you got a 3 game lead, the Braves starters will prevail!
You give me a mets fan, and after chipper and heyward take him out in the back alley he'll want to cheer for the Braves.
Пусть ярость благородная
Let our noble wrath
Вскипает как волна,
Seethe like waves
Идет война народная,
The national war is going
Священная война!
The Sacred War!
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Sep 15, 2010 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Can I have a shoe with that?
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 15, 2010 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Quite a feeble battle cry
That's great Bobby, but we don't have Dance Dance Revolution, so... you're dumb.
by alcatraz0109 on Sep 15, 2010 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s the spirit, ChopMaster! If nothing else works, then a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through!
/Blackadder’d
The best thing about Tim Tebow is his former roommate.
He’s like Baldrick, with an evil, asinine plan that he thinks is really clever.
by phillyinportland on Sep 17, 2010 3:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on The Good Phight
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Next Game
Philadelphia Phillies
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, May 24, 2012, 8:15 PM EDT
Busch Stadium
Clear. Winds blowing out to left field at 15-20 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 85.
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Local radio host honors Cubs’ Tony Campana with parody song
- Roy Halladay bobblehead with glove on wrong hand selling on MLB.com
- Will Smith shows why making your big-league debut at Yankee Stadium is less than ideal
- Steinbrenners selling the Yankees? Family denies New York Daily News report
- The Juice: Brandon Phillips flip sets up Todd Frazier walkoff for Reds
