A Tale of Two Septembers: Phillies Surging While the Braves Implode

by David S. Cohen on Sep 17, 2010 11:36 AM EDT

Watching the Phillies and the Braves since September 1 has been exhilarating for Phillies fans and downright miserable for Braves fans. The Phillies have gone from 3 games behind the Braves at the start of play on September 1 to 3 up on the Braves at the start of play today. How have the two teams flip-flopped in such a short period of time?

To start, the Phillies have had the best record in the NL in September, going 12-3. (That's the second best record in baseball this month, behind the Twins by only half a game, as the Twins have won the same number but lost only 2.) The Braves, on the other hand, have gone 6-9 this month, better than only the sad group of the Nationals, Brewers, Pirates, D-Backs, and Dodgers.

The Phillies have won both at home and on the road this month. They're a sterling 5-2 at home and an even more impressive 7-1 on the road in September. The Braves have losing records at home and on the road. Despite having success at home all year, they've only gone 4-5 this month in Atlanta. But they've continued their season-long road woes this month, going 2-4 in away games.

The Phillies vaunted top-3 starters have been great this month, but their other starters have faltered, giving them only the 8th best ERA this month in the NL - at 3.76. The Braves' pitching has been worse though, with a 4.13 ERA, good for 12th in the NL in September. Both teams have given up about the same number of runs over their 15 games - Phillies having given up 64 while the Braves have given up 66.

It's the two offenses that are worlds apart this month. While slumping through the middle part of the season after a hot first month and a half, the Phillies offense has woken up. The Phillies have scored 88 runs this month, good for second in the NL. They've done so with an .853 OPS, also second in the NL. They lead the league with a .378 OBP and are third with a .475 SLG. On the base paths, they've swiped an impressive 15 bases, good for first in the league, and they've been caught only twice.

In contrast, the Braves' offense has been horrible this month. They've scored only 52 runs, good for only 10th in the league. They've put up an OPS almost 170 points lower than the Phils' -- at .684, they're 9th in the NL in September. They've gotten on base better than league average, as they have a .329 OBP, which is 5th in the NL. But, they've had a massive power outage, with only a .355 SLG, which is 14th in the league. And they've done nothing to help themselves on the bases, as they've stolen only 1 base while getting caught 5 times.

Thanks to the Phillies' incredible September, they sit atop the entire NL by 3 games and are only 3 games short of having the best record in baseball.

Thanks to the Braves' horrendous September, they are only 0.5 games up in the NL Wild Card race and are at serious risk of missing the playoffs for the fifth season in a row.

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The worst Braves’ hitters this month (by OPS) have been:

Melky Cabrera (38 AB): .499
Brian McCann (45 AB): .632
Alex Gonzalez (56 AB): .668
Martin Prado (63 AB): .683

Also, Freddie Freeman, Rick Ankiel, Brooks Conrad, and Eric Hinske are all below .500 OPS in limited playing time.

by taco pal on Sep 17, 2010 11:57 AM EDT reply actions

Yunel Escobar is hitting .342/.375/.447 in September.

by perfectdepth on Sep 17, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions

wow…that’s a lot of getting on base with no power or walks at all. Ichiroish.

by Bilzo on Sep 17, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

which is kind of odd, since Escobar has always had a pretty strong walk rate. it’s only 42 PA, so most likely just a small sample issue.

by perfectdepth on Sep 17, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Unfortunately

This September can change drastically either way starting Monday.

by PhilsForever on Sep 17, 2010 12:02 PM EDT reply actions

Well, whether it’s unfortunate or fortunate remains to be seen.

by taco pal on Sep 17, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions

good point

I guess I negated the unfortunately with my other comment about changing drastically either way

by PhilsForever on Sep 17, 2010 12:16 PM EDT reply actions

To quote Winston Wolfe

“Let’s not go sucking each other’s d***’s just yet.”

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 17, 2010 12:21 PM EDT reply actions

Just because you are a character doesn’t mean you have character.

by taco pal on Sep 17, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah. Jinxes are bullshit and all, but if the Phillies collapse over these last 15 games, people are going to have fun with this article.

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Sep 17, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

There are no predictions in it though. All it does is state retrospective facts.

by taco pal on Sep 17, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

True. But there is an element of schadenfreude, clearly.

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Sep 17, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions

No, no… Say it ain’t so, David!

by taco pal on Sep 17, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

ehhh…they’d have fun with any article by a Phils proponent if they go all 2007 mets.

As TP said though, there are no predictions. just stating how it got here.

by Bilzo on Sep 17, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Would this article sound any different...

…if it was written for Talking Chop, except that the Braves would be mentioned first each time the teams were compared?

It’s not like one of those “The Race Is Over” posts we read in mid-September coming out of New York.

by EastFallowfield on Sep 17, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

exactly. I don’t think any of us are crowning the phils the champs yet. We recognize the odds are in their favor, but not that losing is unpossible.

by Bilzo on Sep 17, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

It Was in August

That this appeared…

MEMO to Jimmy Rollins: The best team won.

Yes, it’s still the dog days of August and the Mets have to travel to beautiful Philadelphia tomorrow, but the NL East race is over. Though the Yankees are fighting for their playoff souls, the Mets are merrily on their way to another October.

This really wasn’t much of a race. Despite all the Mets problems, despite the fact they left the door wide open in the division, the Phillies and Braves have not been able to step through the portal.

by EastFallowfield on Sep 17, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

That is a wonderfully enjoyable read now. If only he knew they were about to not only fall out of the playoffs but clear out of relativity for the next few years.

by Cormican on Sep 17, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow. Nice quote, thanks for pulling that article.

The Mikan Drill

by JoshuaR on Sep 17, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Thats why NY fans are a joke

Ill be honest though, ive been reading everything at talking chop everyday just to wallow in their misery. Occasionally i get a chuckle because a lot of braves fans think the braves can take the phillies when we play them. They also think our top 3 pitchers are only hot right now and will come back down to earth. Cant wait to see their responses when H2O goes lights out on them the first series.

You can muff a punt but can't punt a muff

by andyb on Sep 17, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Just make sure you don’t post any comments there, please.

by taco pal on Sep 17, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

at least not in a nelsonesque “ha-ha” fashion.

by Bilzo on Sep 17, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Dont worry im not a troll

Theres no point in commenting. I just like to read what they have to say because it makes me excited to watch them lose. (As much as id like to rub it in, Ill let the phillies play do the talking).

You can muff a punt but can't punt a muff

by andyb on Sep 17, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Of course, the Braves could take the Phillies when we play them—anything can happen in a short series (cough, Houston, cough), but the odds are certainly not in their favor and I certainly wouldn’t trade places with them. You couldn’t line this series up any better; now it’s just up to them to take care of their business on the field.

But first: the gNats. Eyes on the present, peeps.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by doubleh on Sep 17, 2010 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

How will my keeping my eyes on the present help the Phillies in any way?

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Sep 17, 2010 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s meant more for the Phillies than the fans, but it doesn’t hurt to take it game by game in general.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by doubleh on Sep 17, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice article. I’m really surprised by the offense being that good, because it seems like there’s been a decent number of close wins lately. The base running really has helped as well, especially with J-Roll shelved.

For about a 2 wk period there, the Braves seemed to be hanging on by thumping opposing closers, and the magic from that wand seems to be exhausted. D-Lee has been an unimpressive pickup, and I think Ankiel and TGAG have regressed to norms after initial bursts.

Let’s hope it continues.

(one typo if you want to correct it, doesn’t detract from article…While slumping through the middle pat of the season after a hot first month and a half, the Phillies offense has woken up.)

by Bilzo on Sep 17, 2010 12:53 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks. Fixed the error!

by David S. Cohen on Sep 17, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I probably would have thrown in a few qualifiers, but yeah—this is basically just descriptive of what’s happening.

If I had a bit more time, I might look into why the Braves have faltered lately. With a couple exceptions—e.g. Hudson far outperforming his rate stats, which still only took him from “well above average pitcher” to “Cy Young candidate”—I don’t think they were really playing above their heads through the first five months, They lost Larry Jones Jr., but otherwise injuries haven’t been crippling. I’m not putting it on Cox or “character.”

Much as I loathe them, I also thought, and kind of still think, they’re a better team than what they’ve shown the last 15 games. Not that I’m complaining, or want anything other than to stomp on their throats next week and essentially lock this thing up.

by dajafi on Sep 17, 2010 2:45 PM EDT reply actions

I’ve thought the same thing—I don’t think they’d been playing over their heads, but do think they’d been getting their fair share of good luck, which now seems to have completely turned to much more bad luck. Their outhitting many of their opponents and failing miserably with RISP. That’s probably gotta turn around at some point—love for it to wait until after our series is through so we don’t have to worry about them much.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by doubleh on Sep 17, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s not so much that they had good luck before as we had bad luck. I think the Braves’ record is legit. But we would be further ahead of them if we hadn’t had injuries and what not.

by taco pal on Sep 17, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

can’t take the injuries off the board though, have to play with the hand you’re dealt. The slumpsmas season took place when the core was mostly intact, minus rollins, who hasn’t been a great contributor when healthy.

I really think that all those late comeback wins made them look better than they were for a while. Playing from behind is hard, and they got away with it for a couple weeks, which padded their record.

by Bilzo on Sep 17, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Whether a team has had bad luck, and how a team ought to react to bad luck, are two different questions.

by taco pal on Sep 17, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

that’s true. The Phils definitely were unlucky wrt injuries this year, but it could’ve been worse.

by Bilzo on Sep 17, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I do not think the Phillies were particularly unlucky with injuries this year. They are old and getting older. I expect that next year will be more of the same, if not worse.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Sep 17, 2010 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I wouldn’t call them old, not just yet. In two years, definitely, but right now they are more getting old than actually old.

by FearTheTurtIe on Sep 17, 2010 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

If you want to look at it that way, then the Braves were lucky to avoid injuries. While their mean and median ages may be lower than ours, they had more key guys on their roster who were obvious injury risks, yet the only one of them who suffered an injury was Chipper.

In any event, I think the Phillies were, in fact, unlucky with injuries. Old teams do suffer injuries more frequently, but that doesn’t render any amount of lost WAR as “not unlucky.” The amount of expected lost WAR is something that can be quantified – albeit not with precision but as an estimate. If you’re an older team that can be expected to lose 10 WAR, then you most certainly are unlucky if you actually lose 15 WAR. The Phillies simply lost so much production as a result of injuries this year that I find it extremely hard to believe that what they lost did not exceed what they could have expected at the middle of the bell curve, though I am of course open to hearing a detailed, statistically supported counterargument on that.

by taco pal on Sep 17, 2010 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Well Saito can be added to the list though how severe, I don’t know. Perhaps a recon mission to TChop is in order.

by j reed on Sep 18, 2010 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions

I think it’s best to consider the injury in determining good or bad luck. Contact and accidental injuries (hit by pitch, twisted ankles like Howard, collisions) are random and unfortunate perhaps with exceptions made for head first slide and chair kicking. Players have seen enough injuries caused by this slide to know they are rolling loaded dice everytime they do it esp when there is another viable, safer technique to use. The other injuries fall into the overuse, poor conditioning, and/or bad technique category which are mostly preventable and therefore are not so easily dismissed as bad luck.

by j reed on Sep 17, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions

+1. Plus the simple fact of having too many miles on the body.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Sep 17, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions

We have had a lot of bad luck with injuries, but we’ve had some pretty outstanding luck with Pythagenpat — we’re three wins over our first-order expectation and seven wins over our third-order expectation. Whether we’ve had good or bad luck in the aggregate depends on which of those numbers you prefer to use, I guess.

by Spoilt Victorian Child on Sep 17, 2010 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions

DNL

Question of the Day yesterday: Do you think the Phillies will have the division locked up by the end of the homestand?

71% said yes.

I disagree. The number which shall not be named (sorry, TP, I AM superstitious) is 13. They’d have to continue to play .700 baseball and the Braves play .200 baseball to get there in 9 games.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by doubleh on Sep 17, 2010 2:55 PM EDT reply actions

Disclaimer: not exact math. People better at math than me can feel free to calculate to the exact decimal point if you think the Phils can do it/not do it.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by doubleh on Sep 17, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Close enough. .667 (6 of 9) by the Phillies, and .222 (2 of 9) by the Braves would do it. Or .778 and .333. Or…. and so on. My last game of the season is the 8th in the homestand, so I would love for it to happen, even possibly that day, but I would put the chances at about 2%.

by schmenkman on Sep 17, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions

It might be easier just to say, if we go 9-0, they’d have to go 5-4. Or:

PHI 8-1, ATL 4-5
PHI 7-2, ATL 3-6
PHI 6-3, ATL 2-7
PHI 5-4, ATL 1-8
PHI 4-5, ATL 0-9

Any one of those would do it.

by taco pal on Sep 17, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions

You probably started typing before I did.

by schmenkman on Sep 17, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Rats, schmenk beat me to it.

Anyway, I agree with him that none of these outcomes are particularly likely. Of course, IF we were to sweep the Braves (difficult but achievable), then in the other six games we would only need:

PHI 6-0, ATL 5-1
PHI 5-1, ATL 4-2
PHI 4-2, ATL 3-3
PHI 3-3, ATL 2-4
PHI 2-4, ATL 1-5
PHI 1-5, ATL 0-6

by taco pal on Sep 17, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m hoping that the Phillies clinch during my trip to Phils/Nats on the 9th. I can’t say I wasn’t thinking of that possibility when I ordered the tickets for that date. There are still three spots open, by the way.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Sep 17, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions

29th. Damn keyboard.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Sep 17, 2010 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I would like the phils to be up 4 before the final series in Atlanta (can you imagine being up 2 going in there with it being Cox’s potential last games…blah blah blah).

In order for that to happen, the Phils need to win 1 more than the braves over the next 12. Simply taking 2 out of 3 in the series at Philly would really help that, and a sweep would dunk it I think.

Other than games between each other, Phils have 6 against the Nats, 3 against the Mets.
Braves have 3 Nats, 3 Fish, 3 Mets…so it’s pretty much an identical schedule, except Phils get 3 nats instead of 3 fish for the braves.

by Bilzo on Sep 17, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree with all of this—I really want it locked before the last weekend, though with a magic number of one in your scenario and H/H/O going I’d still feel okay—but add that the Braves this year have been a different, and much worse, team on the road than at Turner Field. Over these next nine games, while we’re at CBP and they’re on the road, the Phils can really create space… and this weekend, we’re all Mets fans again.

by dajafi on Sep 17, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I would prefer that Bobby Cox commit ritualistic suicide using a shattered Chipper Jones bat shard following the Braves’ elimination by the Phillies in the last series of the year.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Sep 17, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions

That ritual would be best done after Cox is forced to run the gauntlet made up of Native Americans from Creek Nation in traditional war dress armed with tomahawks. See movie Black Robe scene when Iroquois force their Huron captives to run the gauntlet.

by j reed on Sep 17, 2010 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions