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Around SBN: Sixers Vs. Celtics: Countdown To Game Seven

Be resolute, fear no sacrifice and surmount every difficulty to win victory: Phillies 7, Nationals 6

By the 9th inning of today's game, most Phillies fans had probably come to grips with the likelihood that the team would enter this week's pivotal three game series against the Braves with only a two game lead in the division. Earlier, the Braves wrapped up a sweep of the hapless Mets with a 6-3 victory, and with the Phillies bats quiet for most of the afternoon, it seemed like the Nationals' 6-3 lead would hold. Wrong. Again.

But before we get to the good stuff, lets talk about the bad stuff. For 5 innings, Chairman Joe Blanton was excellent--striking out 8, walking 0, and allowing only 1 earned run. But you'd think, by the last month of the regular season, Charlie Manuel would have realized that Joe Blanton tends to tire and, in turn, become ineffective as his pitch count nears 100. With this in mind, and with Blanton's pitch count over 80 entering the 6th inning, it probably would have been smart to have arms warming in the bullpen to enter the game at the first sign of trouble. But no, as has happened too often this season, Charlie's failure to understand Blanton's limitations resulted in Blanton being hung out there to dry. Despite signs that he was losing his command, Joe was left in the game with two on and two outs to face Mike Morse who worked a good at bat and launched a 3-2 batting practice fastball over the right field wall to turn a 3-1 Phillies lead into a 4-3 deficit. And the fun didn't end there. With Manuel's recent bullpen strategy of using his best relievers in low-leverage situations having the expected side effect of rendering Ryan Madson and Chad Durbin unavailable to pitch in a close game, he was forced to use Danys Baez and J.C. Romero in a game the Phillies were trailing by fewer than three runs. Naturally, the Nats tacked on runs in the 7th and 8th innings to run the score to 6-3.

Although they were able to tag Nationals starter Yunesky Maya for 3 runs and chase him after only 4.2 innings pitched, the Phils failed on several occasions to extend their lead (stranding 10 runners total) and were kept at bay by the Nationals bullpen from the 6th through 8th innings. But as we all know by now, the cliche "We play all 27 outs" has become something of a motto for this team. As things turned out, they would only need 24 outs today. Facing the meat of the Phillies order in the bottom of the 9th, Drew Storen wasted no time putting runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs as Polanco singled and Utley followed with a double down the left field line. Ryan Howard proceeded to drive them in on a line drive single to center, bringing the Phillies within one, still with no outs. Then, up stepped the much-maligned-by-people-who-don't-know-anything-about-baseball Jayson Werth. Already with two hits on the day, Werth worked a full count and fouled several fastballs straight back before finally squaring one up and crushing it out of the deepest part of the ballpark in center field giving the Phillies another comeback, walkoff win, 7-6. Goddamn, this team is fun.

With the win, the Phils remain three games up on the Braves. Cole Hamels faces Jair Jurrjens tomorrow. Who's excited?

20100919_nationals_phillies_0_85_live_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

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12 games to go – Unnamed Entity is 10, with a 3 game lead and 89 wins already….100 wins is not an impossibility. Would be awesome if that could happen.

by WanderingMoses on Sep 19, 2010 6:46 PM EDT reply actions  

5 ahead in the loss column for the wild card as I post with 12 to go. You have to like that, too.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Sep 19, 2010 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, I had pointed out to my wife that our margin for playoff baseball has continuously expanded over the past week, even as our division margin holds fast and true.

by WanderingMoses on Sep 19, 2010 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Both beautiful, beautiful things!

by dannijd on Sep 20, 2010 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe, but I’d think that if they’re at, say, 98 wins going into the last series, the division will almost certainly be locked up and they’ll rest the starters.

by SethC on Sep 20, 2010 3:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

OT

Andre Johnson is a beast.

by philsandthrills on Sep 19, 2010 6:52 PM EDT reply actions  

I walked off my plane from a successful weekend of trolling Braves fans in Atlanta to Werth winning it.

What a wonderful day.

"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez

by Jose and the Contrarians on Sep 19, 2010 7:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Also, the picture caption is so true. Made me laugh pretty hard. Nice job FM.

by philsandthrills on Sep 19, 2010 7:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Just too perfect. Excellent job Fuqua!

by dannijd on Sep 20, 2010 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Dude. That was pretty awesome.

So, in this case, I was OK with Charlie leaving Blanton in the game. The fact that he’s appeared to have stamina problems this year is not really statistically meaningful. He hasn’t been known for having such problems in his career, the number of games in which he’s had problems this year have been a small sample, and most of them occurred earlier in the season when he may or may not have been building up his stamina following his injury rehab. Also, the bullpen was short today, and I think Blanton with a pitch count of 90 was a better risk to take than the alternative, which would have meant both (1) bringing your weaker relievers in to face more batters, and (2) increasing the possibility that you would have had to use Madson in this game. There is a direct correlation between taking your starter out earlier and using your bullpen more.

I think I’ve shown that I am no knee-jerk supporter of Charlie’s decisions, but they have to be evaluated case by case. Today, I don’t think there is a very strong case for questioning his decisions.

by taco pal on Sep 19, 2010 7:08 PM EDT reply actions  

This is an interesting point and something I obviously didn’t consider. I still think it was apparent after the 6th inning walk that Blanton was losing his command and I don’t know if I agree with the assertion that a tiring Blanton is better than our weaker relievers. Especially not if we’re talking about Contreras vs. a tired Blanton. And according to Charlie, Madson was unavailable today (whatever that actually means).

Also, we have to take into account that the reason we only had our lesser relievers available today was because Charlie has been using his good guys in absurd situations.

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Sep 19, 2010 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

As far as your second paragraph goes, I definitely agree with that. Charlie’s ridiculous usage of Madson is the root of all evil here. I just don’t think he compounded that error any further today. Or, at least, it was a grey area where reasonable minds can differ.

by taco pal on Sep 19, 2010 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I tend to agree with you- a tiring Blanton rapidly becomes a worse choice than even the weaker relievers (although Baez and Romero tried really hard to disprove this theory). I thought going into the sixth that Blanton should be in with a short leash- the minute he gave up the walk it was time for the hook. Watching Blanton struggle his way through was simply awful.

As for Madson- after last night’s eighth inning, a day or two of rest is probably appropriate- last night (while an appropriate situational use of Madson), he clearly lacked command, and it was perhaps best that he get a day or so’s rest. I also think Manuel may have been trying to keep Madson available for Monday- something that he may not have been after warming up Friday, and pitching Saturday and today.

by dannijd on Sep 20, 2010 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’m pleased for Nite Owl, though the case could be made that he could have been brought in to pitch the 7th if Durbin and Madson weren’t to be touched. My quibbles with Manuel are bigger than just one game – and perhaps it’s my nascent prospectaphilia here, but they don’t seem to make much use of the expanded roster as a strategic weapon. Beyond Francisco/Dobbs/Gload/Schneider (and God forbid we pinch hit for Valdez), there’s just not much point to being on the Phillies’ bench.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 19, 2010 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m pleased for him too, but I wonder if bringing him in in the ninth instead of the seventh goes back to a trust factor. Manuel used Baez and Romero because he knew them better and trusted them more, leaving Contreras available if the Phillies closed the gap. Then, with the Phillies down by three and the offense doing bupkis, he sent Worley out as essentially a white flag, thus saving Contreras to do battle another day (or in extras if the offense woke up).

by dannijd on Sep 20, 2010 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

It’s possible this was worlds test outing and he will get more opportunity now. Maybe he leap frogged Baez bastardo and Herndon on the depth chart.

by Bilzo on Sep 20, 2010 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

On a somewhat related note, a test of Charlie’s intelligence will be coming up on the immediate horizon.

We have exactly nine games left, meaning that all but one of our starting pitchers will start two more games. One guy will only start once. If we make no changes to the current sequence, that one guy will be Blanton.

This can be avoided if Charlie simply flips Blanton and Kendrick for the first two games of the Mets’ series. If he does that, then Kendrick will be the guy who starts only one more game, while Blanton will start the last game of the second-to-last series of the year in DC.

Of course, in order for him to do this, Charlie has to recognize that, contrary to what most talk radio callers believe, Blanton and Kendrick are not interchangeable back-of-the-rotation starters. Rather, Blanton is a very good pitcher, while Kendrick is a below-average pitcher: there is a large gap between them. Of course, it will take a little insight to recognize this and not be misled by the fact that Blanton’s ERA is higher than Kendrick’s. Also, one needs to avoid being misled by the fact that Kendrick gave up fewer runs yesterday than Blanton did today.

I think that Charlie will pass this particular test, but we will need to wait and see.

by taco pal on Sep 19, 2010 7:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Flipping Blanton and Kendrick would not require anyone to pitch on short rest. It would go like this:

Fri 9/24 vs NYM – Blanton 4 days
Sat 9/25 vs NYM – Kendrick 6 days
Sun 9/26 vs NYM – Hamels 5 days
Mon 9/27 @ WAS – Halladay 5 days
Tue 9/28 @ WAS – Oswalt 5 days
Wed 9/29 @ WAS – Blanton 4 days
Thu 9/30 – off
Fri 10/1 @ ATL – Hamels 4 days (if necessary)
Sat 10/2 @ ATL – Halladay 4 days (if necessary)
Tue 10/3 @ ATL – Oswalt 4 days (if necessary)

You could also move Kendrick from 9/25 to 9/28, so the Big Three would go on four days’ rest the first time around and then five days’ rest in the three games at Atlanta.

by taco pal on Sep 19, 2010 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

After further reflection, it seems to me that moving Kendrick to the 28th would make the most sense, as it would make us less vulnerable to a rainout potentially screwing up our ability to use the Big Three in the last series.

by taco pal on Sep 19, 2010 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right, I meant after the next series we’ll have nine left.

by taco pal on Sep 20, 2010 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

I was with ya! We’ve dun been over the matchups for Mon-Wed vs ATL.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 20, 2010 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

Might need to re-do those handicaps...

Jair Jurrjens may be unavailable tonight. He has tweaked his knee, and the team has called up pitching prospect Brandon Beachy in case Jurrjens can’t go.

by dannijd on Sep 20, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

According to Matt Swartz, the Phillies’ odds of winning each of the next three games will be between 55%-70%. Let’s say they’re all at 62.5% for simplicity’s sake. That would mean that the likelihood of each of the following outcomes is:

Phillies sweep 24.4%
Phillies win two 43.9%
Phillies win one 26.4%
Braves sweep 5.3%

by taco pal on Sep 19, 2010 7:20 PM EDT reply actions  

I was disappointed that Vance Worley cut his hair. But at least he still has the goggles.

by taco pal on Sep 19, 2010 7:26 PM EDT reply actions  

And his first big league win.

by youaretheman26 on Sep 19, 2010 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes…this was far more important than his appearance.

by Bilzo on Sep 19, 2010 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dude, that’s 5 comments in a row. Nice.

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Sep 19, 2010 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gotta break ’em up for readability!

by taco pal on Sep 19, 2010 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Someone has to keep this recap thread interesting, damn it!

by philsandthrills on Sep 19, 2010 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

and decidedly less clutter’d with furrin langwitch.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 19, 2010 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks.

By the way, bonus points for whoever can guess where the title came from without googling it.

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Sep 19, 2010 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

My guess would be a WWII era leader, maybe Churchill?

by Ritty77 on Sep 19, 2010 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, not THAT far off, historically speaking.

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Sep 19, 2010 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ll go with random.war.movie.

by Bilzo on Sep 19, 2010 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah…wasn’t real close either.

by Bilzo on Sep 19, 2010 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mao Tse-Tung

Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!

by EREX21 on Sep 19, 2010 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

bzzt. actually mao zedong.

:)

by Bilzo on Sep 19, 2010 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ve seen it spelled both ways.

The best thing about Tim Tebow is his former roommate.

by Justin F. on Sep 19, 2010 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just go with Chairman Mao and however you spell his last name won’t matter

That's great Bobby, but we don't have Dance Dance Revolution, so... you're dumb.

by alcatraz0109 on Sep 19, 2010 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

the forty million man murderer is what i prefer

by packimop on Sep 19, 2010 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Both of those also work. ; )

The best thing about Tim Tebow is his former roommate.

by Justin F. on Sep 19, 2010 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

apparently my smiley indicating sarcasm didn’t quite take with y’all.

by Bilzo on Sep 19, 2010 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

That is one hell of a fan graph (and one hell of a game).

by ww2b on Sep 19, 2010 8:01 PM EDT reply actions  

I am telling you the Mets layed down and it will be the Braves undoing. They think they won tose games they did not. I t almost seemed like a horn went off and the Mets said let them win hopefully we will hurt the Phillzaies. i hope after we trash the braves we humiate the Mets for there losing on purpose to hurt the Phils!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.

by Christopher A on Sep 19, 2010 8:03 PM EDT reply actions  

The Mets didn’t lose on purpose. They just suck. Stop it.

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Sep 19, 2010 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes they do I saw the first two games they do trust me.

I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.

by Christopher A on Sep 19, 2010 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I saw the first two games too. They were playing like the Mets have played for much of this season, poorly.

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Sep 19, 2010 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah. They’re just bad. Over at TC, they’re asserting that the Nats laid down to stick it to the Braves.

Whatever team is playing the Phils/Braves wants to win. They may trot out a prospect to see what he’s got, or pull a star at the first warning of injury, but trust me, they want to win.

by Bilzo on Sep 19, 2010 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

There will never be a Met/Braves series in which one of the teams doesnt want to win. The Mets are just unable to win at this point.

by Shoert on Sep 19, 2010 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

i am sorry for misspelling my wife is slamming me for it.

I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.

by Christopher A on Sep 19, 2010 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m sure there are Braves fans saying the same thing about the Nats.

by taco pal on Sep 19, 2010 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I didn’t see these game. but if they did it is because they knew the Mets were throwing and helping make this a hell of an up comming series.

I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.

by Christopher A on Sep 19, 2010 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Seriously, stop. No one throws games in MLB, even if you “know they did.”

by philsandthrills on Sep 19, 2010 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

rRing Lardner and Hugh Fullerton, the journalists who began poking around.

by j reed on Sep 19, 2010 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Watching “Boardwalk Empire” right now…ol’ Arnold Rothstein rears his ugly head again!

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by doubleh on Sep 19, 2010 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

“I’ve loved baseball ever since Arnold Rothstein fixed the World Series in 1919.” — Hyman Roth

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Sep 19, 2010 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

“Let us learn to show our friendship for a man when he is alive and not after he is dead. After that my own rule is to leave everything alone.”

by taco pal on Sep 19, 2010 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well the Chi. Sox aren’t throwing anything this season other than poop…at themselves.

by j reed on Sep 19, 2010 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Andruw Jones’ smirk – no matter the uni – it annoys the shit out of me.

by j reed on Sep 19, 2010 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Scene

[Mets locker room Friday night, minutes before game time. Jerry MANUEL gathers his players around for a pregame pep talk.]

MANUEL: Alright everybody, there are fifteen games left in this season. It’s been rough for everyone in 2010. Johan’s out for the rest of the year. They’re still cleaning Frankie’s father in law’s blood off the carpet. The GM has all but lost his job. Times are tough.

[He points at his team.]

MANUEL: But our job is to focus on the now. We have to remember what is truly important here and make sure we end this season with our heads held high. Some of you might be playing for free agent contracts or raises in arbitration. Others might be motivated by earning a starting role next year…

[Josh THOLE nods silently.]

MANUEL:…or a major league roster spot.

[Lucas DUDA and Dillon GEE exchange knowing looks.]

MANUEL: Maybe it’s your last go-around with a big club. Heck, maybe some of you actually care about the fans that come out and support us.

[An anonymous chuckle is heard.]

MANUEL: I, myself, might just have my job on the line over the next few weeks.

[MANUEL solemnly bows his head. None of the other players follow suit.]

MANUEL: Whatever motivation you may have…FORGET IT. Don’t you realize? All of those motivations – pride, career advancement, millions of dollars…they pale in comparison to the off chance that we can mildly hurt the playoff chances of a team we’re not playing!

[Players give a rousing cheer!]

MANUEL: We have an opportunity to embarrass ourselves, our organization, and our city, all in the name of screwing over a team our fans don’t like…for the benefit of another team our fans don’t like!

[David WRIGHT stands up.]

WRIGHT: Of course! This logic is flawless!

MANUEL: Now let’s go out there and play like the uninspired, listless, apathetic team I know we can be!

[Team cheers. Manuel leads them out of the room, the entire team chanting “LET’S GO METS!” as they prepare to take the field. Exit.]

by Aphilfan on Sep 19, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Rockies threatening in the top of the 11th against Broxton. Huston Street blew a save in the 9th. Jonathan Herrera at the plate.

by taco pal on Sep 19, 2010 8:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Herrera walks. Now Carlos Gonzalez vs. George Sherrill with the bases loaded, two outs, tied score.

by taco pal on Sep 19, 2010 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

"By the 9th inning of today's game, most Phillies fans had probably come to grips with the likelihood that the team would enter this week's pivotal three game series against the Braves with only a two game lead in the division."

Verbatim conversation between my buddy and I from Ashburn Alley in the bottom of the 9th before any Phillies had batted.

Him: “Walk-off?”
Me: “Walk-off.”
Him: “Who’s gonna win it?”
Me: “J-Dubb.”
Him: “Oh yeah?”
Me: “Yeah, he’s due. Werth wants to kill some ivy.”
Him: “Ivy?”
Me: “Yeah, he’s going to hit it off the batter’s eye in dead center.”
Him: “You think so, huh?”
Me: “Yup. You could make the argument that it’s easier to hit them out to left or right – and it IS… But J-Dubb’s going deep to center.”
Him: “…because Werth wants to kill some ivy.”
Me: “Yup.”

Wrong by just a couple feet… so close.

Needless to say…. AWESOME GODDAMNED WIN.

by Chutley's Impressed by Mac's Speed on Sep 19, 2010 8:41 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

rec for the great video i watched about 40 times

by packimop on Sep 20, 2010 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

OK, I'll admit it

After the 8th, I thought this one was pretty much over. Nats’ BP has been pretty solid lately and the Phils had been leaving ducks on all day.

I was happy to eat my shitburger for dinner. Go Phils!

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by doubleh on Sep 19, 2010 8:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Me too...

I gave up on peeking in on the game (at work, so it involved running into the break room to sneak a peek) when it was the top of the ninth, and I saw that Worley was pitching the ninth- I had figured that the game was over- only to have my boss come up to me a little while latter and tell me that Werth had homered to win the game— totally made my day!

by dannijd on Sep 20, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

Victorino

leads the league in long-distance umpire tosses.

He was pretty stupid today. I’ll grant that he was the victim of a lousy call, but the reaction was poor. Werth being out of position was a factor in the Nats’ 6th run.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 19, 2010 11:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Lol....

What is it with this team and check swings?

by dannijd on Sep 20, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions  

Litany of Fear- Frank Herbert from Dune :)

by The Fish on Sep 19, 2010 11:56 PM EDT reply actions  

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