As Chase Utley Goes . . .
by David S. Cohen on Sep 2, 2010 9:52 AM EDT
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PrintPutting aside last night's career-first three-double game for Chase Utley, you'd be forgiven a bit if it was hard for you to remember just how good Utley can be at the plate.
Even though it seems like forever ago, he actually was putting together quite an amazing season through the Phillies' first 43 games. From the start of the season through May 23, in 184 plate appearances, Utley had a great .307/.429/.587 triple-slash line, good for a 1.016 OPS. His counting stats of 10 home runs, 23 RBI, and 34 runs scored were also flashy, and it was easy to assume that he was going to have another incredible season proving that he was among the top second basemen in baseball history.
But then everything changed starting with the Phillies' 44th game on May 25. You might think that Utley's problems began with his hand injury on June 28, but that would ignore just how poorly he was hitting the month before that. From May 25 through June 28, Utley had 132 plate appearances and a .237/.318/.307 triple-slash line, good for a .625 OPS. That's a huge drop-off from the 1.016 OPS for his first 184 plate appearances.
Utley then spent over 6 weeks on the DL. He returned August 17 and picked up right where he left off. Since his return, he's had a .241/.362/.328 line for a .690 OPS. (Thanks to last night, Utley's post-DL OPS jumped over .100 points, as going into last night he had a .208/.344/.245 line for an awful .589 OPS.)
Putting that all together, Utley has had two completely different seasons:
| PA | HR | RBI | R | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| First 184 | 10 | 23 | 34 | 0.307 | 0.429 | 0.587 | 1.016 |
| Next 201 | 1 | 20 | 20 | 0.238 | 0.333 | 0.314 | 0.647 |
There are a couple of things that could be going on here. One option is that, as I've written about in years past, Utley is a hitter who goes on these Jekyll/Hyde runs. This could be just another one of his radical swings as a hitter. However, another option is that Utley was hurt long before he hurt his hand in late June. Right before the end of his hot streak, Utley missed two games on May 17 and 18 for "flulike symptoms." Could that two-day break have been something other than the flu? Could it have been the start of the rumored knee injury that Davey Lopes talked to Baseball Prospectus about in mid-June? The timing of Utley's absence along with the start of his cold streak works almost perfectly.
The thing with Utley is that we'll never know. His stoic public persona (with the exception of his declaration of "World Fucking Champions!") will never give away the goods about what has happened to him this season. Yes, we all know he had a hand injury that kept him out, but the team had to give information about that as Utley went on the DL. Anything else is a mystery.
What we do know, however, is that as Utley goes, the team goes. The other hitters have had hot and cold streaks throughout the year, but the team's production is tied to Utley. In the 43 games Utley was looking like an MVP candidate, the team averaged 5.28 runs per game. Since then, with Utley slumping, injured, on the DL, or some combination of the three, the team has averaged a full run less per game, at 4.26.
If last night's game is any indication of health or a breakout for Utley, the Phillies are going to reap the rewards. If not, well, it's going to be a tough September.
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I’m very interested to see how Utley hits this September. As has been widely noted, he’s often worn down late in the year; he’s not a huge guy, and he’s played almost every day, not infrequently through pain. Ideally, he’s fresh from missing the time with injury and relatively pain-free, and turns in a September (and October, ideally) that resembles his first seven or so weeks of the season.
Insane thought that is very stupid, but I’m still going to say it. Give fielders a week off at a time to stay fresh, and bring in the subs. With good pitching, not too hard to go .500 ball
sry, just had to say it
"The Tree of Liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants"
~Thomas Jefferson
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Sep 2, 2010 11:41 AM EDT reply actions
weirdly enough, the Subs held their ground and did what was asked of them, which was to not suck, and they’re a large reason why the Phils are 2 games ahead in the WC, and not 3 back
"The Tree of Liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants"
~Thomas Jefferson
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Sep 2, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
No, they really did suck for the most part. It’s just that the pitching was incredible, and that’s why the Phils are 2 games ahead in the WC, and not 3 back.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 2, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
somebody had to score the 1 or 2 runs to win yes? Backups as starters did what they were expected to do
"The Tree of Liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants"
~Thomas Jefferson
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Sep 2, 2010 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
or, to put it this way, I didn’t expect much out of the bench players, and they provided a bit more than nothing, so I see it as a victory
"The Tree of Liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants"
~Thomas Jefferson
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Sep 2, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
No one in baseball provides nothing. Not even Eric Bruntlett or Endy Chavez (although it’s close). But, providing more than nothing and being the reason the team survived with the big guys out are very different things.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 2, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the relevant question is whether they performed creditably as backups in comparison to their fellow MLB backup peers. I don’t know the answer to that question though.
My gut is that they did do that (though of course I’d have to look at the stats to figure it out conclusively). But, there is a narrative out there, that CCB is channeling, that the reserves fill-in play is the reason the team is in contention. I think that’s just wrong — the dominant pitching is what saved this team during that stretch (and is still saving it now).
by David S. Cohen on Sep 2, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe that the backups performed respectably (and in some cases admirably) during their time as fill ins. They, along with amazing performance from the pitching staff and players who remained standing, are a big reason that this team is where it is. At times it was impossible from the offensive production to figure out which was which (thinking back to the first Reds series and the Pirates series that followed).
One of the things that makes it hard on the replacement players in Philadelphia is just how big of shoes they have to fill when they are on the field. A backup replacing the average second baseman is going to be a dropoff. A backup replacing Chase Utley is going to have a hard time not looking bad even if he is an above average replacement. The same goes for many other places on the diamond and makes me feel that the backups did contribute something and represent themselves admirably.
BP has an occasional feature sort of addressing this question called “The Replacement-Level Killers.” I don’t think any of our guys qualified; even Exxon, while mostly lousy, wasn’t totally atrocious.
(Exxon’s agent: feel free to use this when you’re trying to find him work next year.)
Valdez actually has a slightly positive WAR this year. If you’re a shortstop, it seems, non-atrocious is actually sorta useful.
Ross Gload certainly did NOT suck when he got a few starts. Actually played a great 1st base and hit a few HRs.
That picture of Chase above looks like a zombie. Is Zombie Chase finally dead and real Chase is back? Who killed him?
I say Sweeney. I bet he’s a secret zombie hunter.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
If last night’s game is any indication of health or a breakout for Utley, the Phillies are going to reap the rewards. If not, well, it’s going to be a tough September.
Replace “September” with “the next three years,” and — at the risk of sounding alarmist — I think the whole thing still holds true. I imagine we’re going to have quite the discussion in the offseason as to whether Utley has hit his decline phase, and I’d say there’s a cogent argument on each side of that debate. And as Utley goes, so goes this entire incarnation of the Phillies; it’s actually still amazing to me that some people don’t realize he’s been the lynchpin of this entire era.
But Ryan Howard is the premier power bat of this generation.
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Sep 2, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
But but but the team just doesn’t win when Rollins isn’t in the line up.
Looking forward to the Kevin Kolb era.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
No… This year, the team went into Slumpmas in earnest right after losing Rollins to the second calf strain, and did not really and completely emerge from it until he returned. While the team needs Chase Utley to play and play well, they also need Rollins- both his presence and his play in the field, even if he is not hitting as well as one would like.
by dannijd on Sep 2, 2010 1:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No… This year, the team went into Slumpmas in earnest right after losing Rollins to the second calf strain, and did not really and completely emerge from it until he returned. While the team needs Chase Utley to play and play well, they also need Rollins- both his presence and his play in the field, even if he is not hitting as well as one would like.
by dannijd on Sep 2, 2010 1:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
This just is incorrect. The team was dominant when Rollins was out the first go-round. They averaged 5.24 runs per game, which is much higher than they’ve averaged with him in games. With him in games, they average 4.63 runs per game. Now, it’s true that the team was horrible when he was out the second time, scoring only 3.23 runs per game, but as we saw in the first time he was out, that’s not about missing Rollins. That’s about other players slumping simultaneously.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 2, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
But you will agree, David, that the crux of the issue is that the Phillies are better when Rollins scores a run, yes?
Oh yes, when Rollins scores a run, the baseball gods shine down on the team and we automatically win. When others score runs but he doesn’t, might as well start drinking because we’re going to lose and lose big.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 2, 2010 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
They broke our heads putting Morgan on TV! Cli-
ches, stories, anecdotes, tons! cracking the skulls of
those of us who read Bill James and liked it!
Consistency! old school! hall of fame! desire! consistency!
hailed from the Big Red Machine!
Momentum! the right way! insights! hunches! signs! the whole
boatload of Joe Morgan’s bullshit!
by Wet Luzinski on Sep 2, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
LOL
I always enjoy where all of us at TGP can agree…the awfulness of Eaton, the mediocrity-at-best of Baez, and of course, the superlative abilities of Chase.
Here, however, while we all agree at the general annoyance of Mr. Morgan, I’m puzzled as to what to call it: ineptitude? incompetence? insistent malaprops? hopelessly anachronistic? sheer misplaced hubris? Some combination or all of the above? Help me out here.
Raul Ibanez: since Moyer is on the DL, he is fast becoming our favorite old guy.
Rooting against a certain LW for the Tampa Bay Lightning will be impossible.
Part of it to me is just the strange bifurcation of the baseball commentariat (like, for instance, there are fan sites where people are welcome to – or at least not pilloried for – using words like “bifurcation” and “commentariat”) that strikes me as unnecessary. I’m likewise puzzled that there can’t be both in the same package. One could wonder, for instance, how much stronger Morgan would be if he’d say stuff like, “Now when I was coming up as a player, the managers and coaches would look at a guy like Utley and say [heart/desire/hustle], but what’s unusual about him is that if you look at statistics like [non-counting statistic], it misses how he demonstrates [quantifiable baseball skill], which can contribute to how many games a team can win.”
I might force my very heart to stop beating if I heard that some Sunday night from Morgan, but isn’t it pretty to think an ex-player might one day think this way?
Right now, to me, that’s the joy of reading sites like TGP, where things that Morgan (and Anderson and T-Mac and Wheels – who have to soft-pedal certain observations because they are paid by the Phillies) spew get a good looking at/dressing down.
I’m hopeful, though, at the better of the breed of the newer-wave journalists. Guys like Zolecki and Gelb and Lawrence are out there, reading this site and others like this, engaged with us and not dismissive, and walking two worlds of the coaches/players/scouts. And thoughtful players, like the Phillies own Michael Schwimer, are only just starting to scratch the surface of what’s possible in terms of new wave commentary.
I wonder, though, about how much soft pedaling the Phillies broadcasters do. Take for example, Monday night’s game. While they gave Kuroda his due, the big thing that they harped on all evening is the failures of the Phillies batters, both to square up to pitches and to leave the high cheese alone. While they probably could have been negative, they did not try to make Kuroda out to be Cy Young.
He’s one of few people who got to live out his childhood dream, was great doing it and was paid well to do so, is immortalized in museum that celebrates a select few of the incredible small class of people who also lived out their childhood dream…would you give a fuck if you we’re an inept, well paid broadcaster after having such a life? Everything’s coming up Millhouse for Morgan. What can you do but turn the volume down on the TV.
Yeah, I read this and just cover my ears and say; “la, la, la, I can’t hear you.” /sarcasm
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
I know, I didn’t mean to be drab. He looked great last night, and I do think he may have been more injured than he was letting on, as David says in this piece, so he very well could be rounding into form. It’s just that, knowing his importance as the team’s best field player both now and in the foreseeable future, I worry about him beating his own body into submission.
Oh, I know the reality of the future; I’m just being irrational about is all. He’s my second favorite ballplayer of all time and I’m just not ready to accept the possibility that this is the beginning of the near end.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
There’s no doubt in my mind the Phillies need to get serious about contingency planning for second base and really focus on what Bello Garcia can do as either utility/bench or actual understudy.
If all goes well, they won’t need to do anything until 2013, but I’d try to have someone relatively viable in place for the end of next season.
We love you Chase!
Seriously, David, terrific analysis, why I come here.
Raul Ibanez: since Moyer is on the DL, he is fast becoming our favorite old guy.
Rooting against a certain LW for the Tampa Bay Lightning will be impossible.
Boy
You must be feeling smug right about now…
Do you have some lotto numbers for us to play?
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 2, 2010 11:19 PM EDT reply actions
What I love about that is how closely that imitates me in real life – in looks, style, attitude, body . . . the whole enchilada.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 3, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
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