"Flipping the Switch" Midseason

by David S. Cohen on Sep 24, 2010 11:41 AM EDT

Have you heard this before? Early in the season when a team is struggling or playing just mediocre ball, some commentator says "the team can't just flip the switch in the middle of the season and start doing well. They need to get their act together now."

If you're a Phillies fan, you've probably heard this just about every June for the last six years, usually right around when interleague play ends. However, if you've followed this team closely over the past six years, you should respond to this claim by saying "well, actually, they obviously can!"

The Phillies under Charlie Manuel have thrived by being able to "flip the switch" midseason. They've done it every single year Manuel has managed the team. This chart shows the year-by-year midseason "flip" for each season Manuel has managed the Phillies:

	Pre-W	Pre-L	Pre-W%	Post-W	Post-L	Post-W%	Diff
2005	45	44	0.506	43	30	0.589	0.083
2006	40	47	0.460	45	30	0.600	0.140
2007	44	44	0.500	45	29	0.608	0.108
2008	52	44	0.542	40	26	0.606	0.064
2009	48	38	0.558	45	31	0.592	0.034
2010	47	40	0.540	45	21	0.682	0.142

As the chart makes clear, in no season did the Phillies perform anywhere near the same after the All-Star break. Their "worst" improvement came last year when they went from a .558 team before the break to a .592 team after the break. In every other season under Manuel, their improvement was much more drastic, ranging from an improvement of .064 in 2008 to this year's incredible improvement of .142 (almost matched in 2006 after the team's dreadful first half, the only half season under Manuel in which the Phillies played worse than .500 ball).

The aggregate numbers are even more shocking than the year-by-year numbers. This chart shows the Phillies aggregate pre- and post-break numbers under Manuel:

	W	L	Win %	RS	RA	RD	R/G	Ra/G
Pre	276	257	0.518	2637	2511	+126	4.9	4.7
Post	263	167	0.612	2269	1847	+422	5.3	4.3

This chart is astounding. Under Manuel, the Phillies have been a .612 team in the second half of the season. That's almost an improvement of .100, as the team plays slightly better than .500 baseball in the first half. The team improves this dramatically by outscoring the opposition by a run per game in the second half while doing so only by 0.2 runs per game in the first half.

I don't have the answers as to how this happens. There's certainly speculation - the hitters are warm weather hitters, the front office has been in the habit of making high profile additions in July and August, Charlie's form of motivation takes a while to kick in, etc.

Whatever it is, the fact of the improvement is undeniable. Under Charlie Manuel, the Phillies absolutely know how to "flip the switch."

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Comments

Interesting stuff. What amazes me is that this “aging” team seems to play better as the season goes on, and especially now when it is at its “oldest.”

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 24, 2010 11:52 AM EDT reply actions

Well...

The team got a lot younger around 7/23 when Moyer went on the DL. Coincidence?

by phatj on Sep 24, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Do you think Moyer colors his hair? I’m thinking he’s got to.

by taco pal on Sep 24, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions

does the carpet match the drapes?

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 24, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

The Phillies over the last five years both have the resources and a kind of, I believe, pseudo-statistical grasp on how attrition functions in the course of a season. This year it seems especially apparent how much their divisional opponents’ rosters are in disarray, with resultant mismatches that allow their studs to push the accelerator to the floor. The Braves series was a good example of this. Combine that with how the schedule is constructed so that the last month is basically divisional play, and it really does play in such a way that the rich get richer.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 24, 2010 2:07 PM EDT reply actions

You mentioned the schedule being so heavy with divisional opponents- is this a unique thing- just the way the schedule fell – or is it something that the MLB does on purpose, and that exists for every team every year?

by dannijd on Sep 24, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m pretty sure that MLB schedules a lot of divisional games in September on purpose. Obviously they don’t know which specific matchups will be meaningful in advance, so the fact that the Phils play the Braves twice in the last week and a half is coincidence.

by phatj on Sep 24, 2010 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

One more metric

In Charlie’s 6 years, the Phillies have gained 26 games in the standings after the All-Star break:

2005 – +5.5
2006 – 0
2007 – +5.5
2008 – +2.5
2009 – +2.0
2010 – +10.5

by David S. Cohen on Sep 24, 2010 3:11 PM EDT reply actions

Wow! How are you figuring this in terms of gains in the standings?

by dannijd on Sep 24, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Baseball Reference has season game logs that show where the team was in the standings after each game. Just compare the all-star break with the end of the season.

by David S. Cohen on Sep 24, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

ok… I had thought that there was more gain this year because of going from down 7 to up 6 in the division, but I am probably counting the wrong way.

by dannijd on Sep 24, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

At the break, they were “only” 4.5 down. They didn’t hit 7 until July 20 – 6 games later. All results and game lists are here.

by David S. Cohen on Sep 24, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

The year where they flipped the smallest switch was also the year they didn’t need to.

by EastFallowfield on Sep 24, 2010 4:48 PM EDT reply actions

What is it then that makes this team focus after the break when they need to that other teams can’t do?

by David S. Cohen on Sep 24, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Desperation?

by EastFallowfield on Sep 24, 2010 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions

The Phillies are 51-32 (.614) against teams that are currently better than .500.* Think about that. They are playing better than .600 ball against the best teams in the league.

*Assuming I interpret the BR data correctly.

by essman on Sep 24, 2010 6:21 PM EDT reply actions

Another oddity

Switch or no switch, as Charlie Manuel’s leadership became more ingrained you might have expected the team to play more consistently throughout the year. And, for the last four years that had been the case. From 2006-2009 the first half records got progressively better, and the team was on a steady course of lessening the difference between the halves. Since 2006 the differences had been shrinking by around .035 per year, so that the expected difference in 2010 would have been virtually nil. This year, however, the first half was back at the 2008 level, while the post-ASB percentage is an almost-unprecedented number, one that has been reached by only a few clubs over an entire season.
The explanation, I think, is in the enormous number of injuries during the first half – and the truth of the matter is, now that everyone except for Rollins is back, this team may be better today because of those injuries and how they hung in there and never wrote off this season.

by phillyinportland on Sep 24, 2010 6:50 PM EDT reply actions

Improving by an average of 10% (winning percentage) after the ASB is downright incredible. I wonder if that’s more attributable to the players or Manuel (I haven’t checked if he did anything similar in Cleveland.)

That's great Bobby, but we don't have Dance Dance Revolution, so... you're dumb.

by alcatraz0109 on Sep 24, 2010 6:59 PM EDT reply actions