Some Phillies Links For You, September 28, 2010: Hangover Champs, Sweeney Rules, H2Whoaaa
by WholeCamels on Sep 28, 2010 8:39 AM EDT
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Phils Ride September Sizzle to (another) N.L. East Crown
I really don't want to believe that this team can "turn it on" in September, but they're certainly looked that way the past four seasons or so.
Sweeney influences visit to wounded veterans by Phillies
Mike Sweeney = Awesomest Dude
Howard & Sweeney: The Pupil Leads the Teacher
Dusty, allergies, etc.
MLB Power Poll: Phillies back where it all began - Sporting News
Hey guyz, the Phillies won the Power Poll!! ::eyeroll::
Paul Hagen: Phillies' NL East title is sweet for Sweeney
Wow, this really is Sweeney's Hour, huh? I love it.
Phillies Notebook: Rollins weathers another night out of Phillies lineup
At this point, you just let him rest and get a few at-bats.
The Goessling Game: What can the Nationals learn from the Phillies? They're just better
This took years to build. The Nationals are just now getting some decent talent.
Phils may only pitch H2O in NLDS
Damn right, they should!
The Fightins - Scenes from an NL East clincher
Including another epic Mike Sweeney hug.
The Fightins - "It was fun, but it’s only gonna get funner."
This will be the "Why Can't Us?" of 2010, right?
(video courtesy TheFightins.com)
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Maybe his was posted somewhere else, but after watching the celebration and looking at various pictures, I never once saw Roy Oswalt. Did I miss him somewhere?
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
I noticed that too
There’s stories about Halladay and Sweeney, but nothing of Oswalt returning to the playoffs.
by Screen Name 20 on Sep 28, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
during the radio broadcast, Oswalt mentioned that he had to pitch today, so he wasn’t going to be able to celebrate as much as the rest of them. He said something about needing to go out and pitch his 5 innings etc just to keep up with the rest of the staff.
Good, thanks. That’s kind of what I thought.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Sep 28, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
The Hoffman article is chock full of RAJ musings and not much smug, if any. I find it fascinating that he had numerous conversations about trading to get Cliff Lee back, but found the asking price too high. It’s about as close to an admission that he didn’t maximize value when we traded him in the first place that we’ll ever get.
“What’s more important is doing what we think is right . . . There was no reason for us not to look into getting him back. I had plenty of discussions with [Seattle general manager] Jack Zduriencik. I could have made the deal. We would have lost some very, very, very good players – players that I wasn’t willing to part with.”
That said, he done damn good in getting Oswalt. Last night was just awesome and I’m seriously pumped about the post-season.
Wow, even more than the tacit admission of his mistake, I think that’s the first time I’ve seen RAJ active value prospects over a splash deal. That’s really encouraging, since, around draft deadline day, I tend to wake up in cold sweats over the prospect (haw haw) of trading Cosart, Colvin, Singleton, etc..
That’s a really fair point. Though — and this really isn’t Lee-baiting — I thought the ensuing trade somewhat mitigated that restraint, if only on the Blue Jays-Phillies side, given that we lost Drabek after all was said and done, anyway (though we did keep Brown, so, maybe I’m over-reacting).
I guess why I like that quote is that I’m happy to see a stated method to RAJ’s prospect-handling. It helps to lessen the (maybe unreasonable) fear that the trade success thus far is smoke and mirrors.
in hindsight, who had the better season, Halladay or Lee?
I realize they could’ve had both but it didn’t turn out all that hideously, except I guess it ended up costing Happ in the end, b/c if the Phils had Halladay and Lee, odds are they wouldn’t have had to go after Roy #2.
No, you’re right; and even if we boil it down to the loss of Happ (though Gose and Villar certainly are compelling prospects) is pretty reasonable, given what Oswalt’s brought to the table this year, and what he could bring next year.
What struck me reading the quote, though, was that there’s always been a bit of hindsight glitter with Amaro. That is to say, any defense of Amaro’s moves tends to be a “Well…at least it worked out that well, despite our misgivings.” Not that there’s anything wrong or ever unusual about that kind of view of a trade, but it’s nice to see that it’s not that RAJ has an uncanny ability to avoid negative consequences, but rather has a strategy for minimizing them.
We actually came out pretty far ahead. Lee’s a free agent. Oswalt’s under contract for another year plus an option of some sort, and his salary is reasonable. That’s worth much more than the difference in the value of the packages (three prospects vs. two prospects + Happ).
Agreed. Of course, we now have the benefit of viewing this after having aquired Oswalt and viewing all of the transactions in context. I still question the return we initially got for Lee, but I’m just about over it :)
by Boundforbeach on Sep 28, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I think this falls into the category of “you win some, you lose some”. Not every deal can be an outright theft/deal of the century. Smart people are involved on both sides of every transaction in MLB, despite what we tend to think from our seats in the peanut gallery.
I can’t rationally bitch about how it turned out — the Phillies have a very likely and cost-controlled replacement for Werth. Oswalt helped hugely this year to stabilize the pitching staff when the team desperately needed it. Oswalt is incredibly cheap this year and next. He has next year and an option. The Phillies will get a pick for Werth (or not lose one if they sign someone). The team is loaded up pretty well for next year. There is still decent talent on the farm.
Oh yeah, and this aging team finished with the best record in the NL and is poised to make a run in the playoffs (how far is something that Amaro really can’t control anyway).
So, to recap:
1. The team was great this year
2. The team looks good next year
3. The Phillies didn’t sell out the future but were able to make sure that this year (which many of us were willing to give up on a couple months ago) would be a success, insofar as that can be controlled (playoffs having a large degree of randomness).
Sounds to me like RAJ earned his keep this year. He didn’t put it all together (many people did, including the much-reviled Ed Wade), but he didn’t fuck it up, either. I point out that the latter achievement is not so easy to accomplish as it seems.
I am pretty psyched for the playoffs. I don’t think RAJ is ever going to be viewed by me as being a warm and cuddly guy that I “cheer” for, but his good work over the last couple of years should be acknowledged more than grudgingly. He’s been pretty good, in all fairness.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 28, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
This is a pretty fair and balanced approach to take. Gotta give RAJ his due and tip of the cap for the Oswalt deal. History favors the bold, and RAJ certainly isn’t afraid to shake things up in a major way. Although if we never got Oswalt and failed to make the playoffs, I’m sure he would be getting more than a fair share of criticism for the Lee deal about now.
by Boundforbeach on Sep 28, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
The Lee trade was, in many ways, a calculated risk. I’m not saying he had a master plan to get Oswalt at the trade deadline. But I think he said to himself:
1. We cannot and will not give Lee the extension he will demand.
2. So, if Lee stays, he’s going to leave after the year, which must be avoided if at all possible.
3. If I trade Lee, there is some X% chance that I will be able to acquire a better replacement at the trade deadline (not better in terms of ability, but better in terms of ability + contract situation).
4. If I trade Lee, there is also some Y% chance that the payoff from the prospects I get back will match the one year of Lee and picks that I gave up.
5. X%+Y% (or should that be X ∪Y?) > Lee + picks
Just to add my two cents worth. I think Amaro also deserves a lot of credit for what he did last year to put the team in a position to challenge for a second title in a row. Late July 2009, I think the rotation was Hamels, Happ, Blanton, Moyer, and Rodrigo Lopez(!). A few weeks into August and the rotation included Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, who went 12-5 between them and started eight games in the postseason. Add in this year’s acquisitions of Roy Oswalt and Mike Sweeney and Amaro has to be considered one of the masters of the midseason pickup move.
by phillyinportland on Sep 29, 2010 2:14 AM EDT up reply actions
You know, we all love Mike Sweeney because he’s easy to love, but let’s not put him on a pedestal. He’s done very little for the Phillies.
Yeah, he’s just an add-on more than a midseason deal. And his impact is nothing like that of Lee, Martinez, or Oswalt. Still, somebody recognized the guy could play, and the team’s record since he arrived is phenomenal.
by phillyinportland on Sep 29, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
BP's adjusted standings
The Phillies have clinched the NL East and the best record in the NL. They currently have the best record in baseball.
Yet, they’re still second in the NL East in the Baseball Prospectus adjusted standings. I’ll take reality, thank you.
You don’t even need to do anything that complicated, we’re still second to the Braves in pythag.
by Spoilt Victorian Child on Sep 28, 2010 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Again, I’ll gladly take reality. The Braves can sit home in October with their Pythagorean crown.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 28, 2010 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
And the Rockies are leading the NL West. That should make them feel better this winter.
by phillyinportland on Sep 29, 2010 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions
As the #1 seed in the NL, they get choice of DS schedules, but I take it they haven’t decided yet which one they will do, even though it should be obvious which one should be taken.
by WanderingMoses on Sep 28, 2010 10:25 AM EDT reply actions
We should be hearing soon. I understand that we only have a very short period of time after clinching to select the schedule.
Ok, so that may be wrong. In 2007, at least, the #1 seed had until 1 hour after their final regular season game to choose their schedule, not after their clinching game.
I am assuming that this has only started since TBS began airing all of the DS’s. I remember a smorgasboard of schedules when DS games were on FX, Family Channel, Fox Sports Net, and the mother network. What a mess…it even made the Baseball Network look organized.
by WanderingMoses on Sep 28, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Look at all the Phillies fans at home and that were there in the Washington. I think it is kinda funny that after the rays lost last night. In the paper here they are complaining that on a night they could have clinched they had only 12,000 fans there ha ha.
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
Well, they were playing the Orioles….their stadium is a piece of crap, and the stadium is away from the main population center, and mostly, they were playing the Orioles.
by WanderingMoses on Sep 28, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes it is, but one has to think…how long before the Rays hightail it out of the Bay Area into greener pastures?
by WanderingMoses on Sep 28, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Or are removed as a team all together. Their owner already said there is going to be a significant decrease in payroll next year. I can’t imagine their team getting better despite the young talent they have, and obviously the fans aren’t going to suddenly come out for a doormat team again.
5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!
And what would those greener pastures be? I can’t really think of an empty market that would be a slam-dunk attendance-wise.
The stadium sucks, and it’s in an awful location. And the economy is brutal. And, well, Orioles, etc. Lots of reasons.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Sep 28, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Heard chat about moving the Rays up to the Meadowlands, although I am sure that the Wilpons and the Steinbrenners would be thrilled about that.
Seriously, though, they probably need to move to a more accessible location in the region. St. Pete is nothing but old folks and transplants who probably would not root for the Rays anyway.
by WanderingMoses on Sep 28, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Just spitballin'
Portland?
Vancouver?
Nashville?
I doubt any of them could easily support a MLB team.
I believe the A’s are gunning for a stadium there.
by WanderingMoses on Sep 28, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
PHILADELPHIA! Duh!
Bring them back as the A’s, and make the A’s the Oakland NORML’s or something.
It’d be awesome!
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 28, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Bring Tampa as the A’s….actually not a bad idea. I think Philly could support two teams, and with a team like the Rays, they would be competitive.
by WanderingMoses on Sep 28, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t like another Baseball team in Philly, Think about it…. They would be fighting over the same fans thus cutting the number of followers in 1/2 than you’ll start seeing non sellout games than team payroll drops than we’re back to the being middle of the pack. I like winning and signing big names to long term deals.
by h2o_34_35_44 on Sep 28, 2010 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
That is possible, but since it will never happen anyway, this is just idle speculation on my part. Remember, I am a theologian by trade, speculation is my game :)
by WanderingMoses on Sep 28, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
The biggest metropolitan areas in the continental US that don’t have MLB teams are:
Orlando 2.75 million
Sacramento 2.44 million
Charlotte 2.39 million
Portland 2.24 million
San Antonio 2.07 million
Tampa is almost identical to Orlando in population.
Portland makes the most sense to me. only one other franchise in the northwest, their AAA team is leaving, and you don’t have to compete with the regional focus on other sports like you would in other areas (i.e. the south, Texas). plus there’s some nice symmetry with restoring one of the original PCL franchises to the majors.
I’ve always wondered why New England didn’t have more teams. Providence metro is 1.6 million, and Connecticut has more than 3 million people who can’t all be Yankees fans. Boston used to support two teams, so there’s history for it.
for Canada, aside from Montreal (which probably will never happen again, unfortunately), Vancouver metro has 2.12 million as well.
by perfectdepth on Sep 28, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Montreal could happen again someday. The passage of time heals many wounds. It will take a lot more time than has passed so far, though.
Portland thought it was in the running for the Expos but it never got serious enough to put forth a proposal based on where its new stadium would actually go. The AAA team left when the city declined to put up money for a minor-league size ballpark. The city thinks it would be perfect for major league baseball, but to be feasible it would need a retractable roof stadium like Safeco Field in Seattle to avoid constant rainouts in the spring. Unless some wealthy owner builds a stadium out of his own funds I don’t see it happening.
by phillyinportland on Sep 29, 2010 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions
random article i ran across by accident
<a href="http://media.www.deltacollegian.com/media/storage/paper320/news/2010/09/10/Sports/One-On.One.With.StarShortstop.Stephen.Malcolm-3929939.shtml" target="new">Interview with Phillies 8th-round draft pick Stephen Malcolm, from the San Joaquin Delta College Student Newspaper.
(Don’t click the link PF! Resist temptation!)
Werth's Type A status...
Not to bring up a sore subject but Elias released the rankings of Type A free agents as it stands and there is some pretty good news there. Werth is the top ranked player on the list which guarantees the Phillies a 1st round pick as compensation should he leave regardless of whether the team that signs him signs any other Type A’s. As it stands the lowest pick that even seems plausible would be the 19th pick of the Tigers.
by phanatic's phloozies on Sep 28, 2010 11:06 AM EDT reply actions
That assumes that we offer him arbitration and he turns it down. This is such a no-brainer that I think Ruben will do it regardless of his weird phobia about the arbitration process, but I do not feel 100% secure about it.
He has to right? It does seem painfully obvious to us but I guess stranger things have happened. What does Werth pull for a one year arbitration deal do you think? 10-12 million?
by phanatic's phloozies on Sep 28, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
He has to right? It does seem painfully obvious to us but I guess stranger things have happened. What does Werth pull for a one year arbitration deal do you think? 10-12 million?
by phanatic's phloozies on Sep 28, 2010 11:25 AM EDT reply actions
The mega-tie
If all three wild card contenders end up with the same record, the result may be tie-breaking games on both Monday and Tuesday. This may result in some crazy cross-country travel, inability to get the rotation set up, and bullpen fatigue.
I am definitely hoping for this. Although I can understand that many fans might prefer
(a) being confident enough to not root for chaos for our NL opponents
or
(b) rooting against Braves at all cost and at all times
The three-way tie is unlikely enough that I’d just as soon root for the Braves to be two games out of the WC spot coming in to the final series, so that the Phillies just have to win one to eliminate them.
I’m not especially worried about the other contenders (nor the Braves, mind you, I just want to humiliate them).
With the WC fight in full swing the Phillies and Braves the last series of the year. If SD is still in the hunt say a game or so back will the Phillies go out and and play the starters to try to keep them from a postseason? If the Rockies climb their way back into this thing do the Phillies roll over and give the final 3 games. I think as far as favorable first round it would be SD > ATL > COL. Just running things through my head.
I think you’ll see a balance. Charlie’s first priority is to the Phillies, not the Padres or Reds, so he has to rest players while he has the chance (Polanco comes to mind). At the same time, he strikes me as the kind of guy who won’t want to short change a game that has meaning, even if that meaning is for someone else.
So my guess is as long as those games mean something they’d play about 5-6 regulars per game, rotating the 2-3 guys who get to sit, all while keeping H2O (to whatever degree they even pitch) on strict, relatively low counts. Blanton and Kendrick (and Worley) could be used as if they were on full starts. Still a respectable lineup while everyone still gets a chance to rest.
No. Ignore the Braves and their situation. Rest the team. Given the randomness of baseball, the scrubs might win 35 – 40% of the time anyway.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 28, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
NLDS
Who are the top preferred NLDS opponents for us? I want to have some rooting interest in this final week, so how would you guys prefer for things to shake out?
Since we cant play the Braves in the NLDS regardless, I’d much rather play the Pads or the Reds in the short series instead of the Giants who have 3 hot pitchers of their own.
The Pirates.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 28, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I am rooting for the Cards this weekend to guarantee the Rockies are stomped out rather than remaining an ember that could still torch the forest.
by WanderingMoses on Sep 28, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Who are the top preferred NLDS opponents for us?
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 28, 2010 12:14 PM EDT reply actions
I’ve had strange cut/paste issues lately. It’s like I’m driving a Prius or an Audi 5000 [*] and trying to brake.
[*] Skeptical link is intentional.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 28, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
My preference, from most wanted to least, with some explanation:
1. Padres – For whatever reason, Phillies play very well at PETCO, and their lineup is very ordinary. Great bullpen, Latos is great but the rest of the rotation is good but not scary.
2. Reds – Worst starting pitching, but the lineup kind of scares me (especially MVottoP).
3. Giants – Cain and Lincecum could go on a Johnson/Schilling-like run from 2001. But the offense stinks.
Generally I’ll take any of them and I think the Phillies can easily beat all three.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Sep 28, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
also it seems Latos has hit a bit of a wall as he has never thrown this many innings. my order of preference also goes
1.SD
2. Cincy
3. SF
I’d flip the Reds and Giants. The Reds bullpen, while not great, scares me slightly more than the Giants (though not by much), and the only threat the Giants have with a bat is Posey, everyone else is pretty streaky, at best.
That said I would LOVE to face the Giants, as I think the friendly ribbing we could get into with McCovey Cove would be epic. They are a thoroughly entertaining, very smart blog and I don’t think the back and forth would be as adversarial as previous seasons with the Dodgers, Yankees and any back and forth with the Padres would surely be.
Wait, you really think that the Reds have a better bullpen than the Giants?
Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly
by say hey nation on Sep 28, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t see it. They have similar BB/9 but other than the Giants are better.
Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly
by say hey nation on Sep 28, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Question: The article says the Phillies win the tiebreaker with Giants, but they are 3-3 against them. What tie breaker are the talking about?
Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly
From what I’ve seen, it’s a tiebreaker based on how both teams have done in their respective divisions. So, in other words, the Phillies have a better record in the NL East than the Giants do in the NL West, so they win the tie-tiebreaker.
Don’t the Phillies have a better record % wise vs the NLW as well?
by h2o_34_35_44 on Sep 28, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
That particular section in the rule book refers to “intradivision record,” which apparently means “record within your own division.” But the same section refers to “intraleague record,” which I take to mean “record within your own league” by parallelism. I’m not sure how this differs from just plain old “record.” Unless, in this context, “intraleague” means “interleague.”
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