Homestand Pitching Probables (Sept. 3-8)
by taco pal on Sep 3, 2010 4:11 PM EDT
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PrintHere are the current pitching probables for the homestand that begins today. Not all of these guys have been officially announced, so some are just educated guesses. Of course, everything is subject to change in the event of a rainout, injury, arrest - what have you.
Incidentally, it came to my attention that the Phillies' website has Joe Blanton scheduled to pitch in the night game of Monday's doubleheader. This would be on only three days' rest. If this information is right, then it would make no sense unless Charlie is planning not to use a spot starter at all in the series, and instead start Blanton, Hamels, and Halladay on short rest in three consecutive games. Could that possibly be what he's thinking? It seems to me that this would be extremely unwise regardless of the fact that there's an off-day coming up on Thursday. Yet it would also be consistent with Charlie's character.
For purposes of this chart, however, I am going to assume that Charlie will not be an idiot.
| Day | Pitcher | G | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | GB% | LD% | FB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA |
| Friday | Hamels | 27 | 27 | 174.0 | 9.10 | 2.59 | 1.24 | .299 | 43.9 | 17.6 | 38.4 | 11.0% | 3.31 | 3.84 | 3.47 | 3.21 |
| Capuano | 18 | 3 | 32.0 | 9.28 | 3.09 | 1.41 | .336 | 44.0 | 17.6 | 38.5 | 14.3% | 5.06 | 4.20 | 3.66 | 3.43 | |
| Saturday | Halladay | 28 | 28 | 214.0 | 7.99 | 1.09 | 0.71 | .303 | 51.3 | 19.0 | 29.7 | 9.4% | 2.27 | 2.80 | 2.91 | 2.90 |
| Bush | 27 | 26 | 147.0 | 5.51 | 3.31 | 1.53 | .310 | 40.3 | 17.9 | 41.7 | 12.1% | 4.71 | 5.27 | 4.99 | 4.82 | |
| Sunday | Kendrick | 28 | 26 | 154.1 | 4.20 | 2.45 | 1.40 | .287 | 44.4 | 17.2 | 38.4 | 11.8% | 4.72 | 5.05 | 4.82 | 4.93 |
| Wolf | 28 | 28 | 172.0 | 5.81 | 4.08 | 1.36 | .294 | 39.5 | 19.9 | 40.6 | 11.5% | 4.76 | 5.30 | 5.13 | 5.00 | |
| Monday #1 | Oswalt | 27 | 27 | 176.2 | 8.20 | 2.50 | 0.82 | .270 | 44.4 | 18.8 | 36.9 | 9.0% | 3.01 | 3.36 | 3.55 | 3.42 |
| Sanchez | 26 | 26 | 160.1 | 7.07 | 3.26 | 0.39 | .312 | 43.8 | 18.5 | 37.7 | 3.9% | 3.14 | 3.28 | 4.25 | 4.16 | |
| Monday #2 | TBA | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| TBA | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | |
| Tuesday | Blanton | 23 | 23 | 142.1 | 6.39 | 2.09 | 1.39 | .337 | 42.6 | 18.0 | 39.5 | 11.6% | 5.14 | 4.45 | 4.26 | 4.16 |
| Volstad | 25 | 25 | 143.2 | 5.64 | 3.32 | 0.88 | .306 | 47.5 | 18.1 | 34.3 | 8.8% | 4.82 | 4.39 | 4.64 | 4.62 | |
| Wednesday | Hamels | 27 | 27 | 174.0 | 9.10 | 2.59 | 1.24 | .299 | 43.9 | 17.6 | 38.4 | 11.0% | 3.31 | 3.84 | 3.47 | 3.21 |
| Miller | 3 | 1 | 10.0 | 4.50 | 6.30 | 0.90 | .256 | 48.3 | 13.8 | 37.9 | 9.1% | 4.50 | 5.50 | 5.71 | 5.80 |
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Oh wait – Volstad is suspended for six games. Which means he isn’t allowed to pitch until Wednesday. But Miller can’t flip with him, because Miller’s pitching tonight and there would only be three days’ rest between today and Tuesday.
The Marlins are already without any good options to spot-start the second game on Monday. So now that they have to find someone to spot-start on Tuesday too, they are going to be pretty screwed for that series.
I decided to go over to Fish Stripes, the Marlins blog to see what the discussion was about who they think their Game 2 starter will Monday. Clearly there are better things to do in Miami than visit SBNation. This would currently be the highest commented article on their front page, with 2 comments.
So much for that plan of attack.
For purposes of this chart, however, I am going to assume that Charlie will not be an idiot.
Don’t make an ass out of you and me…
Thanks for this, definitely a helpful visual of what the next week looks like. I’ll say now that I’m advocating Worley for the spot start — I think he’s a legitimately better pitcher than either Robertson or Carpenter, and has been throwing well in Triple-A lately.
I second that recommendation. Also, I think his glasses are kind of bad ass.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Definitely. He has a high ceiling on folk hero-ability because of those glasses, a la Rick Vaughn. The hair works for that too.
Observations:
1. Capuano hasn’t sucked this year, in limited time.
2. We have SIERA and xFIP advantages in every game of the homestand, including the Kendrick game.
3. Our big three = badasses.
But the Phils bought their pitching staff to go with their hitters…so it doesn’t count…somehow. /rockies’ fan’d
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Plus the Phillies get to hit in their bandbox park while the other team is (presumably) forced to have their at bats at some other, much larger yard. Or at least that’s how I understand the complaints from other teams/fans.
by zfg on Sep 3, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow, Kendrick’s FIP is better than Randy Wolf’s. This may explain why Team WL is a hilarious afterthought (the Mariners-laden lineup didn’t help either). Memo to self: understand advanced scoring metric prior to draft day.
But really – who believed that would have been the case in September?
Pitching Rotation
The rotation will have to be determined by the outcome of the first four games. If the Phils win them all, then start someone with less experience. If the Phils go 2 and 2 ( God forbid), then the rotation may have to continue with less rest between games!
Ummm, no. This isn’t the playoffs, so no need to throw more than half of our rotation on short rest at this point.
Yeah............and go 2 and 3 and sit 5 games behind!
by shesaysitbest on Sep 3, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Remember the Phold of 1964
I was pretty young to know exactly what was going on, but as I understand it, Gene Mauch decided that his 2 aces could make a 2 man rotation to win the few games needed to clinch, and then he was going to rest them until the World Series…we all know how that turned out. They never did clinch…
Tonight
Anyone venturing to the game remember Mayor’s Cup is tonight at the Linc. Lots of drunken Temple and Nova fans. As I understand it, if you get there early and show them your Phillies ticket, you can get into the football game for $10.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
I’m a Villanova fan, but even I think Temple will win this year. Nova has had some key losses to their team and are coming off of a championship. I don’t think it was an embarassment that Temple lost them last year, because I think they were just a good team (perhaps better than some of the other teams Temple plays, eh?), but I also don’t think Temple took them seriously coming into that game.
I don’t think they’ll make the same mistake tonight. As of this writing, they are leading 7-0.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Didn’t mean to slight Nova with my earlier comment — they’re obviously an impressive program, having won FCS last year. But Temple has been on the way up under Golden in recent years, and you’d generally expect an FBS bowl team to handle an FCS team.
And now it’s 14-10 Cats at the half, so who knows… maybe Nova just has Temple’s number?
I liked this, by the way.
Old school
Yesterday’s make-up was scheduled at a perfect time for Fox Sports Midwest, which snagged a few minutes with Denver-area natives Roy Halladay and Brad Lidge to promo an upcoming football game between their former high schools.
Lidge’s Cherry Creek High plays Halladay’s Arvada West on Sept. 16 in a showdown between two of the region’s athletic powerhouses.
In 1995, Lidge was part of a Cherry Creek baseball team that defeated Halladay and Arvada West en route to the state title. The closer donned a navy windbreaker with his alma mater’s logo, while Halladay wore a white Arvada West T-shirt while filming the segment.
Well, I don’t think Worley will be the spot starter on Monday, since he started for Lehigh Valley tonight. Oh, and Carpenter started last night.
Robertson it is. Sigh. I guess he isn’t that bad, but the Marlins seem far more dangerous to me against a left hander than a right hander.
It looks like you did this by “hand” , that is sans nifty database program. That’s alot of work. Much appreciated. One suggestion, include handedness of pitcher. That’s one qualm I have with baseball stat. culture in general: the handedness of the player is part of their physical description which is usually at the heading of their profile pages and not often included in other less formal settings. For example a batters slash line could easily let you know their handedness with a R , L, or S before or after the AVG/OBP/SLG.
TBA
Vance Worley is going to pitch monday his last start he only pitched one inning
"My truck done shocked the fire outta me. My arm don't hurt no more" - Roy Oswalt
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