What Hamels W-L should be.

by #26HOF2B on Sep 3, 2010 10:55 PM EDT

For a while now I've been wondering what Cole's record could have been. If he got the support from the offense in the close ones(ex. two 1-0 losses vs Mets). My criteria went like this: any game he gave up 2 or less runs against with at least 7 IP and he received a ND or the L. As we all know he is currently 9-10. With this formula he would've been 17-6. What a difference a little help from your friends can do.

P.S. Halladay (16-10) under the same theory should be 19-8.

P.P.S. Oswalt (10-13) should be 16-7, but all except one ND is the Astros fault.

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Exhibit AAA as to why pitcher W/L mean little in how they are performing overall.

The Mikan Drill

by JoshuaR on Sep 3, 2010 11:12 PM EDT reply actions

We have this calculated at Baseball Prospectus

Here’s the link:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=70640

The thing to remember when reading these is that this is for an AVERAGE team, not a good team, so you almost never see a player’s luck-neutral W-L (which is E(W) – E(L) in the report) get as high as you think it should be. No one ever wins 20 games without getting a little more offense than the average team provides for the average pitcher.

So going into tonight’s game: Halladay was a luck neutral 15.8 – 7.1, instead of 16 – 10. Hamels should be 11.9 – 8.8 instead of 9 – 10, while Oswalt should be 12.4 – 8.5 instead of 10 – 13.

by Matt Swartz on Sep 4, 2010 11:43 PM EDT reply actions

thanks for the reply Matt. Being a die hard fan it just sticks in my crawl when our homegrown Cole wasn’t getting the help our potent offense if fully capable of providing. Also while I hear alot of people giving no merit to the W-L category these days. Then why when professional writers and broadcasters talk about potential Hall of Fame Pitchers they talk about 300 wins.

by #26HOF2B on Sep 5, 2010 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions

It seems that pitcher W/L can be likened to Newtonian mechanics: generally speaking, it bears out that good pitchers have good W/L and bad pitchers don’t. But when you drill down (a la quantum mechanics) there are anomalies that it can’t account for: injuries, good pitchers on bad teams, etc…

by Philibuster on Sep 5, 2010 8:39 PM EDT reply actions