Stat Notes - September 5

by schmenkman on Sep 5, 2010 12:51 AM EDT

The buffet today features some fresh stats on the Phils' big 3, and a Triple Crown update highlighting Carlos Gonzalez.

Phillies Starters
When the Phillies acquired Roy Oswalt, these were the NL rankings of the Phils' top 3:

NL rank	(out of 52 qualifiers)					Through 7/29
	ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	WHIP	GB/FB
Halladay	2	2	1	2	3	7
Oswalt	19	11	6	6	6	31
Hamels	22	35	15	12	27	34

Updated through Saturday (SIERA through Friday):

NL rank	(out of 51 qualifiers)					Through 9/4
	ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	WHIP	GB/FB
Halladay	6	3	1	1	3	5
Oswalt	11	11	9	11	5	28
Hamels	15	23	8	6	13	29

- Halladay has stayed at or near the top of the league.
- Oswalt has moved up in ERA while falling back in FIP and SIERA
- Hamels has moved up significantly, and has a 2.75 ERA since May 16th

"Very Bad" Starts
Admittedly arbitrary, I label a start as Very Bad if the ER allowed are greater than the Innings Pitched. In the Phillies' first 92 games through July 19th, they had 11 Very Bad Starts (VBS), and 50 Quality Starts (54%). Since then they've had only 1 VBS in 44 games, with 29 QS's (66%).

Games	QS	VBS	other
first 92	54%	12%	34%
last 44	66%	2%	32%

Triple Crown
Non-Phillies note for a change, but significant enough that I think it needs to be tracked. In spite of the advent of new stats in recent years, the Triple Crown still captures the imagination. There hasn't been a Triple Crown winner since Yastrzemski in 1967, and none in the NL since Joe Medwick in 1937.

Batting Average		Home Runs		RBIs
1. Carlos Gonzalez, COL	.335	1. Albert Pujols, STL	35	1. Joey Votto, CIN	98
2. Joey Votto, CIN	.324	2. Adam Dunn, WAS	33	2. Albert Pujols, STL	96
3. Starlin Castro, CHC	.321	3. Joey Votto, CIN	32	3. Carlos Gonzalez, COL	95
4. Martin Prado, ATL	.317	4. Mark Reynolds, ARI	32	4. Adam LaRoche, ARI	90
5. Albert Pujols, STL	.311	5. Carlos Gonzalez, COL	31	5. David Wright, NYM	90

Gonzalez has inserted himself in the race in recent weeks, and it's largely due to his performance at Coors, where he's been phenomenal -- I don't think I've ever seen a more extreme home-away differential:
Home -- .391/.436/.790 (1.226 OPS), 24 HR
Away -- .275/.295/.434 (.729 OPS), 7 HR

Prior to this year, in 620+ PAs he's had a more conventional home field advantage:
Home -- .273/.313/.488 (.801 OPS), 10 HR
Away -- .251/.313/.392 (.705 OPS), 7 HR

So his Road performance has barely budged, but his stats at Coors have skyrocketed.

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Comments

If CarGo wins the Triple Crown , the amount of activity on the blogoshere will spontaneously create an AI.

by j reed on Sep 5, 2010 2:10 AM EDT reply actions

CarGo

Check out this research done by an Athletics fan. explains the coors effect pretty well

http://www.athleticsnation.com/2010/8/8/1611852/carlos-gonzalez-a-god-on-a-mountain

kinda blew my mind that fastballs were the worst pitch to throw in colorado.

by jamiethekiller on Sep 5, 2010 9:31 AM EDT reply actions

Very Interesting

I wonder if, just as this effect would benefit some hitters over others (free swingers with power), if it would have greater effects on some pitchers than others.

by dannijd on Sep 5, 2010 10:54 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Triple Crown

How likely is it that Omar Infante swoops in and pisses all over Votto/Pujols/Cargo’s Triple Crown hopes?

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 5, 2010 9:32 AM EDT reply actions

I’ve been wondering the same thing. Infante’s batting average now is .340, well above the other three. I think you need 502 plate appearances to qualify for the batting title and it looks like Infante has 386 from at bats and walks, not sure how many others. So, with about 25 games left he’s going to need about 115, which seems very doable if he’s leading off and playing every day. Which will mean a lot of wasted air about the triple crown. Just think if somebody did have it in their grasp, except for All Star Omar Infante.

by phillyinportland on Sep 5, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I wasn’t aware Infante was lurking beneath the surface. His BABIP is way high (.381 this year, .315 for his career), so it will be interesting to see how long he keeps it up.

by schmenkman on Sep 5, 2010 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Technically, you need 3.1 PA per game, so if you have a rainout that doesn’t get made up, you only need 499 PA, and so forth.

Also, if a player doesn’t meet the PA threshold, but would win the batting title anyway if you assumed that he would go 0 for however many more ABs he would need to get to that threshold, then he still wins the batting title. So that gives Infante a little more breathing room provided that he can keep his average up that high for the rest of the month.

by taco pal on Sep 5, 2010 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Very. Any model is going to have Infante the easy favorite at this point to win the BA title (mine’s at 49%) based on two things:

- He’s hitting leadoff and not missing any time and is now very likely to get 502 PA and if he misses, it’ll likely only be by a few PA.
- There’s simply not much time for him to drop very far as long as he doesn’t completely tank.

Pujols still has a great shot at leading in HR and RBI, but he’s falling too far behind too many players in BA.

--
Dan Szymborski
Dan's Archive: BTF, ESPN

by D.Szymborski on Sep 6, 2010 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Wow on Gonzalez. I knew he was having a great year (and not just against the Phils), but I didn’t realize that.

Also, arbitrary or not, I really like the VBS label. Good stuff here.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 5, 2010 9:50 AM EDT reply actions

agreed, that could be a very accessible and useful new-wave stat.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 5, 2010 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I would love to see someone go for the Triple Crown. With three candidates this year, it seems like a good opportunity but I have the feeling at least two of them are going to end up as winning at least one category, ruining the chance for a sweep.

The Mikan Drill

by JoshuaR on Sep 5, 2010 10:19 AM EDT reply actions