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Phillies Prospect Roundup (Tuesday Edition): ...and the box scores vanish

The bad news about football season kicking off, and MLB kicking into high gear for its stretch run, is that it also marks the end of the minor league regular season. To some, it may sound like a small price to pay, but for prospect junkies like myself, it's a bit hard to swallow. Once the short season leagues start up, there can be up to eight Phillies box scores to check per day, and as Labor Day passes, they suddenly vanish. True, we'll get to see the Lakewood BlueClaws start their playoff run tomorrow, so we'll have something to wean us off of the en masse box scores that make up the latter part of the summer, but it's a tease more than anything else.

With that said, this year's box scores -- or, more accurately, the cumulative statistics they engender -- have told us quite a bit about the Phillies' farm system. Assessing the big picture isn't something that can happen overnight, but we now have a chance to assess the information that's out there, see what Baseball American and the like have to say in their forthcoming offseason prospect rankings, and form our own conclusions. Sure, it still stinks that there's no baseball to follow (instructs and the various winter leagues aside), but next season is only seven months away!

So as we meander through our last prospect roundup of the 2010 season, let's take a look at some of the 40-man call ups along with a few more guys.

Star-divide

Vance Worley, RHP, Philadelphia: Yesterday's spot starter was a tough luck loser, as he more than held his own in his first major league start (5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K). I think dajafi is onto something when he wonders aloud whether we've seen the last of Worley as a starter this year; Rich Dubee's displeasure with Kyle Kendrick aside, it's probable the Worley is a better option at the back of the rotation, plain and simple. He doesn't have Kendrick's platoon issues, he's been stingier with the free pass, and his curve and slider (while not exactly earth-shattering) give him legitimate secondary pitches to induce swings and misses. Put it this way: watch this space.

Antonio Bastardo, LHP, Philadelphia: Bastardo laid waste to the minor leagues this year, posting a 1.12 FIP and 4.5 K/BB in 20 Triple-A appearances, and after a couple of false starts with the big league club, it appears that the diminutive southpaw is finally finding his gear in the bigs. He hasn't walked a batter in his 2.1 innings since returning to the Phils, and aside from the bunt parade the Rockies dropped on him, he hasn't been terribly hittable either. Charlie Manuel should continue to deploy Bastardo cautiously, but if he's healthy and throwing strikes, he's really tough on left handed hitters, and could prove to be a valuable specialist this month and as part of any potential playoff roster.

Mike Zagurski, LHP, Philadelphia: See Bastardo, Antonio... no, I'm actually kind of serious. The erstwhile Kansas Jayhawk was likewise impressive in Triple-A (3.04 FIP, 11.9 K/9, 4.8 BB/9), and he's likewise struggled a bit in the majors. It's all about command for the Tommy John survivor, as two hit batsmen punctuated a rough outing yesterday against the Marlins. Zagurski's no world beater, but he's held hitters to a .225 batting average throughout his minor league career, and could prove to be an effective mop up guy with occasional LOOGY deployment.

Scott Mathieson, RHP, Philadelphia: In case you couldn't tell, September roster expansion is really about all the arms you can add to your bullpen for the stretch run, as the presence of Bastardo, Zagurski, and Mathieson attests to. The double Tommy John survivor has -- stop me if this sounds familiar -- had a bit of trouble throwing strikes while wearing red pinstripes, although he's only appeared twice this year for the Phils. Command issues should probably leave him confined to low leverage situations until he gets comfortable, but guys who can pop high 90s on the radar gun aren't exactly a dime a dozen.

Trevor May, RHP, Lakewood: It's been a weird season for the big right hander. He's continued to pile up the strikeouts at each stop, but his control problems became a big issue in Clearwater (where he walked 61 in 70.0 innings), necessitating a demotion to Lakewood. Back in Low-A, May has been nothing short of outstanding, and he'll take the hill for the BlueClaws tomorrow with a sparkling 2.00 FIP, 13.0 K/9, and -- best of all -- 2.9 BB/9. Kevin Goldstein recently raved about his upside; the question that remains is whether the mechanical issues that plagued him earlier in the year have been smoothed.

Domingo Santana, OF-R, Williamsport: The now 18-year old had a rough go of it in 2010, ending up with a combined .211/.329/.333 line across stops at Lakewood and Williamsport. I still think the Opening Day assignment to Lakewood was overaggressive and may have had something to do with his subsequent struggles (even in the NYPL), but that's pure speculation on my part. What we do know is that Santana is still very young, and he would still be age appropriate in Lakewood two years from now, so there's absolutely no need to panic here. I'm fascinated to see where he winds up on offseason prospect lists.

Cody Overbeck, 3B-R, Reading: The overall Reading numbers aren't awe inspiring -- .255/.333/.440, 8.8% BB, 30.8% K -- but he improved greatly as he adjusted to Double-A, including a .316/.404/.600 showing in August. The strikeouts are something of a concern, but even more of a concern is where Overbeck fits defensively -- he was a -5 TotalZone at the hot corner last year, and his .927 fielding percentage this year doesn't instill a ton of confidence. I still think Overbeck profiles as a four corners reserve a la Ty Wigginton (non-2010 edition), but he'll need to play at least a passable third base for that scenario to occur.

Eric Pettis, RHP, Williamsport: Pettis was the closer for UC-Irvine his sophomore and junior seasons before being shifted to the rotation for his senior year, and he likewise handled both roles for the Crosscutters this summer. Whenever he entered the game, though, Pettis was dominant, as a simple glance at his NYPL numbers show: 10.3 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, 45.3% GB, 1.30 FIP. He's obviously not the kind of monster prospect his numbers would indicate -- guys like that don't usually last to the 35th round, after all -- but he's certainly got a shot to make it to the bigs as a bullpen guy, which would be a great return on a pick that late.

James Klocke, C-L, Lakewood: Klocke is a guy I haven't mentioned before, and there's a chance I may never mention him again, but he was a later round draft pick that I really liked. A 31st round selection out of Southeast Missouri State, Klocke scooped up several All-American awards after a .370/.444/.635 campaign as a senior. Guys with great control of the strike zone always intrigue me, and Klocke has that in spades; his 111:66 BB:K in his college career carried over to a 6:8 BB:K in just 107 plate appearances in pro ball. A 15% caught stealing rate might indicate that he's lacking a bit defensively, but I'd like to see him get a crack at full season ball next year to see if he can develop into a backup catcher.

Julio Rodriguez, RHP, Lakewood: This is a classic case of, "We need to wait to see what the scouting reports say." On pure numbers, Rodriguez is easily a Top 10 prospect in the system, racking up 90 strikeouts in just 56.1 innings for the BlueClaws to go along with 36 in 34.0 NYPL innings. He's also rectified the gopher ball problem that plagued him last year, surrendering only 4 in his 90.1 innings. The real issue, as Phuture Phillies noted a few weeks back, is that there have been conflicting reports on his velocity, and if he's only sitting high 80s, that isn't a great recipe for success heading forward. We'll have to wait to make a judgment on this one, but I for one am fascinated to see what the scouting reports say.

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Well at least you’ll have one less distraction during your honeymoon.

by taco pal on Sep 7, 2010 3:33 PM EDT reply actions  

oh baby

You’re more polished than Vance Worley, and have more upside than Brody Colvin…

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 7, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Have you been spying on me?

In all seriousness, my fiance should be thankful that the Hawaii Winter League is no more, or I’d definitely have tried to catch a game.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 7, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hawaii Winter League ….
1. We admitted we were powerless over our addiction – that our lives had become unmanageable
2. Came to believe that a Power greater than ourselves could restore us to sanity….

by j reed on Sep 7, 2010 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hawaiian honeymoon? Where are you going?

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 7, 2010 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oahu and Maui. Never been, so I’m stoked.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 7, 2010 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice. Maui’s awesome. Helicopter ride, submarine ride, bike down the volcano. Drive to Hana, swim with the pretty fishes. Fresh pineapple o NOM NOM

enjoy, but don’t take the tiki off the island.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 7, 2010 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Go find the Victorinos. OK, don’t.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 8, 2010 7:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

O sweet mystery of life

I found a guy with a high .ISO in the Dominican League!

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 7, 2010 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t have a strong opinion on the Kendrick/Worley choice as far as September 2010 goes (I’m thinking it probably won’t make a huge difference either way), but going forward it’s pretty clear that we ought to upgrade Kyle somehow. But I was just thinking: if his platoon split is one of his biggest problems, then why have’t we ever thought about converting him into a reliever? Isn’t that the natural logical solution? And what would we have to lose? It occurs to me that Chad Durbin was once a starter who couldn’t strike anybody out and had a terrible split against lefties but later turned into a pretty serviceable middle reliever. A Kendrick who faced 80% righties might actually be pretty decent.

by taco pal on Sep 7, 2010 3:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Years ago, I thought Kendrick could be a decent ROOGY—I guess a bit more than that, potentially a guy who could handle a Durbin-type role, given his handedness. Maybe this is still the case, though I don’t see it happening with the Phillies given that (I think) Kendrick is about to move out of minimum-salary land. Would love it they could trade him for something, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s non-tendered this winter.

by dajafi on Sep 7, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn’t be shocked either, but I think it would clearly be a mistake. Considering the state of pitching throughout MLB (even in this “year of the pitcher”), there has to be somebody out there who’d be willing to give up a warm body for Kendrick. Even if all we could get is the lamest of AAAA prospects, that alone would preclude non-tendering as the right decision.

by taco pal on Sep 7, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

you don’t really see that many "roogy"s in MLB do you? Typical a RH RP is a guy who can get guys out from both sides of the plate with some efficiency. Would it be worthwhile to donate a roster spot to Kendrick over a Durbin type pitcher? I’d think not.

Know what they call a RHPer who just can’t get LHBs out?
A minor-leaguer.

by Bilzo on Sep 7, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe you should read more carefully before commenting.

by taco pal on Sep 7, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

a guy who only hits the high 80s could strike out 90 in 56 innings????

by PSUcup1 on Sep 7, 2010 4:06 PM EDT reply actions  

It happens but usually it’s a polished college pitcher pitching to hitters who are much younger than him. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of a 19/20-year-old doing it to college grads. I’ve gotta think that even if he doesn’t throw hard enough, he must have the makings of a serious breaking ball or trick pitch.

by taco pal on Sep 7, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

What he said.

Although, I should probably take back much of what I wrote about Julio, because Goldstein’s Future Shock column today actually talks about him (kind of eerie, huh?). Subscription needed, but I’ll tease with one relevant part of the write up…

Six-foot-four, skinny and loose armed, Rodriguez sat in the upper 80s as an amateur, but he’s slowly bumped that number up since turning pro… Now sitting in the low 90s with a number of 93- and 94-mph readings thrown in, Rodriguez has the ability to generate swings and misses with his heater, while his slow, loopy curveball projects as a second plus pitch down the road.

Guess that answers that, says the guy with egg all over his face.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 7, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

If he’s throwing low 90’s, he’s what, the 5th best pitching prospect we have?
Cosart, Colvin, Biddle, May, then Rodriguez, right?

by philsandthrills on Sep 7, 2010 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

For now. And that’s based on an extremely small amount of data.

by taco pal on Sep 7, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’d say that’s fair. I haven’t yet decided who’s third between May and Biddle, and you could make an argument for someone like Worley in there (depending on how you weight low ceiling/high probability guys), but I’d say that’s probably our top five at this point.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 7, 2010 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you can control the break on a two-seamer effectively you could conceivable get away with it. It’s a great pitch when it’s not breaking early and into the center of the plate or the break is too serve for the pitcher to throw strikes with any consistiency. Unless your Maddux, many two seamer pitchers like Padilla and Burnett know to well how wiley the two seamer can be.

by j reed on Sep 7, 2010 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah i was thinking he must have a filthy change up!

by PSUcup1 on Sep 7, 2010 4:12 PM EDT reply actions  

PF, did you see the Phils sacked Lehigh Valley’s manager? Wonder what your take is on that, other than that I think they’re seeing honest-to-goodness talent coming through LHV over the next couple of years and don’t want to put them in the holding cell vibe they’ve had there the last two years.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 8, 2010 1:41 AM EDT reply actions  

They should have the all-prospect infield next year.

1B Rizzotti
2B Garcia
3B Overbeck
SS Galvis

by taco pal on Sep 8, 2010 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

I haven’t followed the ins and outs of the Pigs all that closely, but Huppert is now 184-248 in 3 years as manager there, and I’d assume the brass just deems that unacceptable. If distance from Pythag is in any way indicative of manager ability, then they could be onto something, as Huppert is a full 14 games removed from his expected number of wins over those 3 years.

Odds are better, though, that you’re right that they just want to change up the atmosphere. I’d venture to guess that Huppert isn’t really a terrible manager or anything, it’s just the nature of the beast.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 8, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

It can't be because of the record, can it?

I mean, nobody cares about the record of minor league teams, except presumably for the teams themselves. I imagine that the importance of the manager is vastly overshadowed by the team’s talent level, and I would guess that this is even more true in the minors than the majors. The Phillies don’t usually have their best prospects spend much time in AAA; it’s not surprising the team is bad.

by phatj on Sep 8, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh I agree, but I think the organization also tried to make “quality” Quad-A assignments to keep the IronPigs competitive in the opening years of the franchise, and the team regressed mightily from last year to this year. Even if winning isn’t the #1 priority, someone perceived (rightly or wrongly) as a losing manager isn’t going to keep a job for all that long. Or, as gregg from Phuture Phillies says:

Although minor league managers are not judged solely on their won-loss record, a cumulative record of over 60 games below .500 in his three years at the helm was difficult to look past.

Or, think of it this way: since prospects aren’t staying in Triple-A for long, he’s not really there to be a teacher. So if he’s not there to teach, he’s there to win, right?

by PhillyFriar on Sep 8, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t know. If the Phillies tried to stock the team with solid AAAA players they haven’t done a very good job. The IronPigs were absolutely dreadful their first year, mediocre last year and back to dreadful this year.

Seems to me that expecting a manager to succeed in AAA in the Phillies system is setting him up for failure.

by phatj on Sep 8, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m not saying they’re either justified or unjustified in firing Huppert, just pointing out what their probable rationale is. I’ll stick with the, “The team was bad, but not that bad” route.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 8, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tagg Bozied

I know he’s 31, and not a prospect at this point, but after he posts a 1.052 OPS, I have to ask — any idea where he goes from here? I assume he keeps plugging, looking for a major league cup of coffee.

by schmenkman on Sep 8, 2010 9:51 AM EDT reply actions  

Yes. Destined to roam the earth, like David Carradine in Kung Fu.

by taco pal on Sep 8, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

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