Best Record in the NL?

by David S. Cohen on Sep 7, 2010 2:04 PM EDT

Right now, there's lots of angst in Phillies fandom about the inconsistent, sometimes non-existent offense, Ryan Howard's hitting since his injury, Jimmy Rollins' spot in the lineup, and the fifth starter spot.

But all this fretting is missing a much more important point. The Phillies have a very real chance to finish the season with something they haven't had since 1977 - the best record in the NL.

Going into tonight's games, the overall NL standings look like this:

Team	Wins	Losses	Win %	GB	Run Diff.
Cincinnati	79	58	0.577	-	94
Atlanta	79	59	0.572	0.5	124
Philadelphia	79	60	0.568	1	72
San Diego	77	59	0.566	1.5	104
San Francisco	77	61	0.558	2.5	73

For good reason, most of the focus has been on how far the Phillies are behind the Braves (now only half a game) and how far they are up on the Giants (now only 1.5 games). And, with the playoff teams being decided by division, we rarely get a glimpse of the overall NL standings.

But here we are with three and a half weeks of baseball left to be played and the Phillies are just 1 game out of first place in the NL. The three biggest reasons the Phillies might just pull off this feat are Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt. Having these three anchoring their rotation for the last 23 games of the season is a huge advantage.

However, in order to pull this off, the Phillies will need to overcome their schedule. By strength of their remaining opponents, the Phillies have the second toughest road in front of them:

Team	Opp Win %
Padres	0.523
Phillies	0.501
Braves	0.492
Giants	0.491
Reds	0.460

Unfortunately, the Reds, with the best record in the NL now, have a sizable advantage here, as they face a steady diet of the Pirates, D-Backs, Astros, and Brewers in the remaining weeks. But the Reds also have the biggest division lead and are the most guaranteed to make the playoffs, so they may ease up a bit.

Of course, at this point, the big issue is just making it to the playoffs. As the first chart shows, the Phillies are almost equally likely to miss the playoffs as they are to have the best record in the NL. However, if they do get the best record in the NL, they get homefield advantage throughout (as the NL won the All-Star game this year).

For a team that's 12-5 at home in the playoffs in the past three years, that could be huge.

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Comments

Have to disagree with this line:

“As the first chart shows, the Phillies are almost equally likely to miss the playoffs as they are to have the best record in the NL.”

Its very unlikely that all 3 of Giants, Braves and Padres will finish with a better record than the Phils. BP’s Pecota-adjusted odds actually have the Phils with a higher chance to make the playoffs than the Braves at this point, with 85%.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php

by Nikk.m on Sep 7, 2010 2:48 PM EDT reply actions

The question is

Likelihood of missing the playoffs >/=/< likelihood of having the best record in the NL

not

Likelihood of missing the playoffs >/=/< likelihood of missing the playoffs

by taco pal on Sep 7, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

And the reading comprehension award goes to . . . TP!

by David S. Cohen on Sep 7, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Woo hoo! Do I get a prize?

by taco pal on Sep 7, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions

while the Reds opponents have the lowest overall win %, they do have a 4 game set in Colorado which is never easy and a 3 game set in SD. Also they have 6 remaining with Houston who is still playing darn good baseball. So its not as easy as the numbers may indicate…

by PSUcup1 on Sep 7, 2010 3:13 PM EDT reply actions

The Astros are 32-22 since July 4. That’s pretty shocking. Makes the sweep from a couple of weeks ago a little easier to stomach.

by taco pal on Sep 7, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah.. Id rather have 6 against the Mets and/or Nats than the Astro’s

by PSUcup1 on Sep 7, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions

^^meant marlins, not Nats

by PSUcup1 on Sep 7, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions

The Philles have 11 home games left, 12 on the road

The Braves have 13 at home, and 11 on the road, but have the hardest remaining series against the Cardinals (4 games in Atlanta.)

It’s basically as close and fair as you can have it.

For Bobby.

by Scott Coleman on Sep 7, 2010 3:22 PM EDT reply actions

Not really, Braves have it much harder. They have to play us, amirite?

by Nikk.m on Sep 7, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Well I meant in a series where we aren’t playing each other. I thought that was implied though.

For Bobby.

by Scott Coleman on Sep 7, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree it’s pretty even, but will the Cardinals really be playing for anything beyond pride? Since sweeping Cincy a few weeks back they’ve been in full on collapse and went from a 2 or 3 game lead in the division to double digit games back and fairly far back in the WC race.

by Cormican on Sep 7, 2010 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I think so. If we pass the Braves, then the Cards will be playing a four-game series against the wild-card leader while five games or so back.

by taco pal on Sep 7, 2010 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Even if the Phils don’t pass the Braves and stay a half or one game back that’ll be in the Cards minds. Especially since the Phils and Braves play (if I’m correct) 6 of the last 9 games against one another?

by packimop on Sep 7, 2010 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

but Wainwright/Carpenter/Garcia is just as good as any other trio in baseball, and they’re still capable of playing well. And while the lineup isn’t much with the injuries, Pujols and Holliday are both capable of beating you by themselves.

For Bobby.

by Scott Coleman on Sep 7, 2010 5:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions