9/8 Stat Notes - WPA, Feeble Marquee Stats, Popups

by schmenkman on Sep 8, 2010 9:02 AM EDT

Best offensive performance -- WPA and OPS

JoshuaR had a fanpost a few days ago asking which Phillie has had the single best offensive performance this year.

The list below was in the comments, and I thought I would repeat it here. These are the top games in Win Probability Added. As a reminder, WPA is calculated for each at bat by looking at how that AB changed the team's probabilty of winning the game. For example, the winner is JRoll's game on 6/23, but in his first four at bats, he had WPAs of -.024, -.020, -.035, and -.030 for a total of -.108. His walk-off increased the Phils’ probability of winning by .709 (from .291 to 1.000), for the total of .601.

1. Rollins 6/23	.601	1-5, walk-off HR
2. Howard 4/10	.583	2-4, triple, HR, 3 RBI
3. Ruiz 8/12	.539	3-5, 3 RBIs, walk-off double
4. Ruiz 8/5	.506	3-5, 2 2B’s, HR in 10th
5. Polanco 8/1	.473	2-6, game winner in 11th
6. Ruiz 5/4	.454	2-3, 2B, walk-off HR in 10th
7. Werth 4/24	.451	2-4, 2 solo HR's, including go-ahead run in the top of the 9th in 3-2 win
8. Rollins 7/25	.441	2-4, drives in tying run, scores winning run on WP
9. Ruiz 5/10	.430	4-5, HR — after this game, he led the NL in OBP and was 12th in OPS
10. Howard 7/27	.395	2-4, HR, 3 RBI
11. Victorino 8/28	.388	2-4, go-ahead 3B in 7th
12. Ibanez 8/5	.385	3-4, RBI in the top of the 9th to bring score to 4-3, game tying run
13. Rollins 8/18	.372	3-5, 3 RBI, double short of cycle
14. Werth 6/23	.369	3-3, 2B, HR

This isn't necessarily what most people think of when they consider best offensive performances, but it does factor in timeliness, or "clutch". Also listed in the same fanpost comments are the highest single game OPS's this year:

1. Howard 6/18	4.250	4-4, double, triple, 2 HRs, 3 RBIs, 3 runs
2. Werth, 7/23	3.333	3 for 3, 2B, HR, BB
3. Victorino 5/10	2.833	2 for 3, 2 triples, 3 walks
4. Ruiz 8/23	2.750	1 for 2, HR, 2 walks
4. Ibanez 6/19	2.750	2 for 3, 2B, HR, BB
4. Werth 5/6	2.750	3 for 4, 2 doubles, HR, 3 RBI
4. Utley 5/20	2.750	1 for 2, HR, 2 walks, 3 runs

Marquee Stats

The Phillies have a good chance of making the playoffs, but I got to thinking what the initial TBS broadcasts would look like as batter after batter came up with stats that have been decimated by slumps and injuries. Below are the 2009 full year stats, compared to the 2010 projected ending numbers (extrapolating current stats with essentially full playing time the rest of the way):

2009 Final				2010 Projections				Difference
	AVG	HR	RBI		AVG	HR	RBI		AVG	HR	RBI
Rollins	.250	21	77	Rollins	.240	9	47	1st	-.010	-12	-30
Victorino	.292	10	62	Polanco	.309	7	56	2nd	.017	-3	-6
Utley	.282	31	93	Utley	.270	15	64	3rd	-.012	-16	-29
Howard	.279	45	141	Howard	.277	32	104	4th	-.002	-13	-37
Werth	.268	36	99	Werth	.293	23	76	5th	.025	-13	-23
Ibanez	.272	34	93	Ibanez	.262	15	80	6th	-.010	-19	-13
Feliz	.266	12	82	Victorino	.257	20	71	7th	-.009	8	-11
Ruiz	.255	9	43	Ruiz	.288	7	48	8th	.033	-2	5

Kind of funny that Feliz and his .695 OPS would be 2nd in RBIs on the 2010 team.

Infield Popups

Finally, an interesting post by Rob Neyer... He deserves some credit for talking about Howard in a positive light for a change.

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Comments

Excellent stuff, as ever, schmenkman. I love the marquee stat matchup. This will create many playoff color analyst heads to ’splode. Aside from my out-and-out Phillies fandom, this might be the single most interesting factor driving my interest in another Phillies playoff appearance.

So many interesting case studies in “WTF happened in 2010?” The injury bug created quite the system failure. I keep coming back to Victorino as the weirdest case.

And you’re right – lost in the miasma of Feliz hatred was the fact that the guy absolutely raked until the ASB in 2009.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 8, 2010 10:20 AM EDT reply actions

Yes, then he just fell off a cliff.

by Cormican on Sep 8, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Although not his RBIs:

through July 4: .296/.348/.420 (.768 OPS) with 40 RBI in ~300 PAs
July 5th – on: .242/.272/.358 (.631 OPS) with 43 RBI in ~320 PAs

by schmenkman on Sep 8, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh to become completely ineffective, yet still manage to be effective somehow. ’tis a wondrous thing.

by Cormican on Sep 8, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Not a bad deal having Utley, Howard, Werth, and Ibanez in front of you.

by schmenkman on Sep 8, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I looked at % of runners driven in for 2009, and Feliz was 38th in the majors, out of 222 with 400+ PAs.

From the Phils:
7. Howard 19.2%
38. Feliz 17.4%
63. Rollins 16.2%
77. Ibanez 15.7%
na Ruiz 15.0% (<400)
103. Utley 14.9%
107. Victorino 14.8%
111. Werth 14.6%

Howard was 1st in this in 2007-2009 combined. Probably lower but still top 5 if you also include 2010. I should do the math some time.

by schmenkman on Sep 10, 2010 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions

This post is a few days old I doubt anybody will see this, so I’ll just keep talking to myself — anyhow, it’s nice to see all 8 starters in the top half of the 222 eligible players.

by schmenkman on Sep 10, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Long live Pedro Feliz! (tongue firmly planted in cheek)

by David S. Cohen on Sep 8, 2010 10:42 AM EDT reply actions

Pretty imressive that 4 of the top 9 game performances on the WPA chart are by Carlos Ruiz (and Rollins is the only other player with more than 1 of them). Ruiz has definitely been clutch this year and is arguably the team MVP.

by GTPinNJ on Sep 8, 2010 11:26 AM EDT reply actions

Another good point. And as we’ve noted here before, since 8/1 of last year he’s been among the premier hitters in baseball, and if there’s a better 8-hole guy in the NL, I’d like to know who.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 8, 2010 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions

He’s very good. But there’s no such thing as clutch. It’s just luck.

by taco pal on Sep 8, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I disagree. It’s possible (and correct) to say “Ruiz has been clutch this year” without saying “Ruiz is clutch”.

by phatj on Sep 8, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t know about that. I think the concept of “clutch” necessarily assumes an element of causation, which I think is lacking as a factual matter. That Ruiz has, by happenstance, done well in high-leverage situations, does not make him “clutch” as that term is normally understood.

by taco pal on Sep 8, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Right, that’s what I said. Ruiz has been clutch, not Ruiz is clutch.

by phatj on Sep 8, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

I’d agree with this. I’d venture to say that you two are talking past each other to some extent, and actually agree.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 8, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions

here

Clutch ability = no
Clutch performance = yes!

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 8, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I understand what you guys are getting at, but I still think it’s wrong on a semantic level. I guess one could say “clutch results” but I don’t think “clutch performance” is right unless Ruiz was actually driven to perform better in high-leverage situations because they were high-leverage situations.

by taco pal on Sep 8, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Even the “clutch results” thing is pretty shaky, the more I think about it. It would be sort of like saying “I was clutch in picking the right lottery numbers.” Those aren’t clutch results, those are just good results that look clutch.

by taco pal on Sep 8, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions

So you wouldn’t say he has had “clutch hits”?

by phatj on Sep 8, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I would say he had timely hits. But I think the word “clutch,” by definition, means that he got those timely hits because of the timeliness of the situation. If the causation is, in fact, absent, then they weren’t really clutch.

by taco pal on Sep 8, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t agree with that definition. But whatever.

by phatj on Sep 8, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions

So what you’re trying to say, essentially, is that “clutch” is the new black. Or the new “toolsy.”

by PhillyFriar on Sep 8, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions

ugh

/shudder/

by taco pal on Sep 8, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Your marquee stats analysis is very consistent with the piece I wrote today. The new story for the Phils is that the hitting has suffered a downturn. But, along with it, is the new story that the pitching has turned phenomenal. The marquee stats for the pitchers that they’ll show on TBS are going to be eye-dropping (especially if they take from my piece and show the post-July 21 stats!).

by David S. Cohen on Sep 8, 2010 2:31 PM EDT reply actions