From the Abyss to First Place - How the Phillies Got Here
by David S. Cohen on Sep 8, 2010 11:43 AM EDT
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PrintAt the end of play on July 21, the Phillies were 48-46. They had just lost their fourth game in a row, and their second in a row to the Cardinals in which the Phils scored only 1 run. They were in third place -- 7 games out of first place and half a game behind the Mets. Chase Utley was on the DL, Ryan Madson and Joe Blanton had ERAs over 6.00, Jamie Moyer had been injured the day before, Jimmy Rollins' OPS had plummeted in a month from over 1.000 to .700 (and was about to go under it), and Roy Oswalt was pitching for the Astros.
Things looked bleak.
But turnarounds happen without identifying themselves first. And with July 21 the Phils' 2010 nadir, no one really noticed that July 22 was the start of an amazing comeback.
Since that loss to the Cardinals on July 21, the Phillies have played .696 ball, going 32-14 over the last month and a half. They've been excellent at home, with a 19-10 record (.655 win percentage). They've been other-worldly on the road, with a 13-4 record (.765).
Given the team's almost season-long offensive struggles, it should come as no surprise the Phillies have won with pitching and not with their hitting. During this 46 game stretch, the Phillies actually have scored less per game than they did in their first 94 games -- 4.63 runs per game in the first 94 games compared to 4.57 runs per game in the last 46.
However, they've held other teams to almost 1 run less per game. In the first 94 games, they gave up 4.46 runs per game. In the last 46, they've given up only 3.54 runs.
It's simply impossible to overstate how incredible the three-headed monster of Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt has been. Since July 21 (and excluding Oswalt's start for the Astros on July 24), the three of them have combined for this incredible line: 26 games started, 183.67 innings, 2.30 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 4.95 K/BB, and 0.93 HR/9. The Phillies are 19-7 in games they've started (meaning the team is 13-7 over this stretch in games not started by one of the three).
Incredibly, the back-end of the Phillies' bullpen has been almost better. Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson have been on fire since July 22. Combined, they've made 50 appearances, pitched 49 innings to the tune of a 1.65 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 4.85 K/BB, and 0.37 HR/9.
The story of how the Phillies got to first place reflects the new normal for the Phillies, and one Phillies fans need to get used to. The days of scoring 5 to 5.5 runs per game are apparently over. Injuries and age seem to have taken their toll on the aging lineup.
Instead, dominant pitching is the new normal. With a starting rotation featuring three guys who go deep into games and collectively pitch like Bob Gibson at his best, the decrease in runs scored isn't the liability it would have been in years past. And with Madson and Lidge shortening games once again, the opposing offenses have very little chance when one of the three-headed monster is pitching.
Dominant starting pitching, shut-down back-end relievers, and adequate offensive production -- that's a formula for a first-place team. It's a different formula than we're used to, but it works nonetheless.
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It’s a long season for sure. I have to say I was a bit worried about the team when they had a lot of players on the DL but was always confident they would turn it around.
The team has had some good luck the past few years with minimal injuries. They had their fair share this season but fought through it and are looking to turn it on the last month of the season.
I think you’ve missed the point of this post. They aren’t “looking to turn it on the last month of the season.” They’ve been turning it on for the past month and a half . . . despite the injuries. If just under .700 ball isn’t “turn[ing] it on” for you, I can’t imagine what is.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 8, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
No, I know they have been playing well, that’s how they got into first place. Obviously they have been playing well for the last month or so and they need to keep it going the last month. Seems like a bit of a nit pick on choice of words but I recognize it might not have been the best choice on my part.
I think we’re still hopeful that the offense can be resurgent.
I (for one) am not expecting Rollins, Victorino, and Ibanez to improve substantially, but I’d like to think that Utley has a lot of room for improvement, Howard can get some power back, and that Werth and Ruiz can be status quo. Overall, I don’t think those are ridiculuous hopes.
I agree. The team has been winning for sure, but I still think there is that extra gear where they put it all together down the stretch. I mean, look at the teams we have played during that stretch.
Some good teams for sure but the Nationals, Diamondbacks and Dodgers are not exactly strong teams. We can still hit another gear against the likes of the Braves down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Pinch me. Never thought I’d see a pitching staff like this on the Phils in my lifetime. We’s a hittin’ team, son.
Now, they need to make sure they don’t make a habit of falling apart defensively and ride this stud pitching all the way to and through the playoffs.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
I never feared we’d be back in the driver’s seat come Sept. Fantasy drafts, cool window open nights and the Phils back in Phirst, ahhhhh September.
OT question- How did Robertson look this weekend? 1 inning I know but I did not get to see and am hoping he can resurrect his career here.
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
I know its nitpicky, but this cant be right:
“During this 46 game stretch, the Phillies actually have scored less per game than they did in their first 94 games — 4.63 runs per game in the first 94 games compared to 4.87 runs per game in the last 46.”
Thanks for catching that. I updated it.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 8, 2010 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Great post.
Part of the explanation is also just that offense is down (and pitching up) all around MLB. A lot of the Phillies’ hitters’ disappointing stats are not quite as disappointing if you look at them relative to their peers’.
Oh, and Joe Blanton has also been very good throughout that stretch! For this reason, I would not consider dropping him from the rotation etiher in the last two weeks of the regular season or in the postseason. Only Kendrick deserves to be dropped.
Back to back games without allowing a first-inning run- it’s a miracle!
by dannijd on Sep 8, 2010 6:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I would, however, drop Blanton from the NLDS rotation if the Phils wound up in the “A” series (or whatever it’s called). You know, the one where you could go 1-2-3-1-2 on normal rest.
Aren't the schedulers
working to shorten the amount of rest days? Or is that just later in the playoffs?
Wow. That NLDS is like an NBA scjhedule: Wed-Fri-Sun-Mon-Wed. Never seen anything like that before.
by phillyinportland on Sep 9, 2010 3:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I love to look at the line graph on the phillies yahoo sports page just below the NL east standings. You see the decline, that last dip in July then a strong push upward awesomeness!! Also I know I have read this on a blog here somewhere but I would like to say it as well Ryan Howard learn a freakin drag bunt down 3rd base line just get it past stupid pitcher and its a single everytime the shift is on…Finally I know people always rip on Philly fans, but I have read the good phight blogs for awhile and there are always intelligent and realistic comments so proud to be a phillies fan for as long as I can remember (which is the ’93 season when I was 7)
Actually
Wouldn’t a bunt by a left hander down the 3d base line be a push bunt, not a drag bunt?
by MJW on Sep 8, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
But you are not the only one to call it that in the last couple days, so don’t feel bad. :)
by dannijd on Sep 8, 2010 6:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Great post.
I’ll admit that with the team scuffling along near .500 into late July, I was in “sell/get ’em next year” mode. My logic was that the team was built to win with certain baseline assumptions, the biggest of which was that they’d mash opponents into submission. Between age and injuries, that wasn’t happening this year.
But it’s to the huge credit of Amaro and Manuel that they found another winning formula—the arms-led approach David describes here. Good on them for taking the leap of faith, and good on the players for justifying it.
I was right there with you. And truthfully, I can’t overstate how big the Oswalt deal was in changing my mind (along with the club’s fortunes, obviously).
Great piece, David.
Remember how much hand-wringing there was (maybe not here on TGP, but by media and other fans) about the Phillies looking to trade for pitching when their offense was a bigger problem? Well, the offense has continued to be a problem, but the team has been awesome. Goes to show that you can always get better by improving either run scoring or run prevention, it’s just a matter of what’s out there.
What’s going to drive me crazy is when the announcers talk this September/post-season about how the Phillies are better situated for a playoff run because, as we all know, “pitching wins in October.”
by David S. Cohen on Sep 8, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Well I think they’ll be partially and accidentally correct, in that frontline pitching (as opposed to pitching depth) does, in fact, win in October. Of course, you can say the same thing about hitting, but the point is that Halladay-Hamels-Oswalt is a terrifying front end of the rotation.
Absolutely. But, as you rightly note, a front-line hitting team can win in October too, as we’ve seen countless times.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 8, 2010 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
This may be slightly off point but I have been impressed over the last month at how stongly the ESPN team has been in support of the Phillies, first in their chances of overtaking the Braves and now in picking the strongest team in the NL. Not that it helps in any way, but it’s nice to see this team from Philadelphia get some of the love that normally seems to go to other teams, especially the Red Sox and Cubs (when they were good).
by phillyinportland on Sep 9, 2010 3:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Haven’t been watching them much of late, but this isn’t too surprising since they generally just pick whoever won last year.
Touche. And John Kruk adds his Philliness to the proceedings nightly. Kind of like Ron Jaworski does for the Eagles.
by phillyinportland on Sep 9, 2010 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Yup. This is actually an argument I had several times while I was ardently advocating a deal for Haren. (Then I ardently advocated against a deal for Oswalt because of the price I assumed, before tipping my hat to Amaro for getting the deal done at a bargain price.)
Run prevention is the shizznizzle, yo.
I argued against the deal for Haren, becuase I didn’t think it possible to win games by a 3-2 margin repeatedly. I don’t think the recent pitching success (starters AND bullpen) is going to be sustainable though, and without an improvement to the offense, I think the team will be in trouble.
The Braves kept staging improbable 9th inning comebacks, which they’ve stopped doing, unshockingly.
The Phils are winning a lot of low scoring 1 run games, which they’ll probably not be able to sustain either.
I don’t see why it wouldn’t be sustainable. If you’ve got better pitchers, then chances are you’re going to win more low scoring games.
by zfg on Sep 8, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. Not one of the Phillies pitchers is clearly playing over his head right now.
Also, it’s true that we’re benefiting a bit from one-run wins lately, but only a bit. The Phillies’ pythagorean over the 46-game stretch is 29-17. Their actual record is 32-14. So we’ve been a tad lucky, but even our “real” performance over that stretch has been highly impressive.
this is kind of my point TP. The Phils are +3 gms over where they should be. That luck is not likely to continue, and if there was no luck for the phils and they played averageally….they’d still be the chaser for a playoff spot and not the chasee.
But that’s not the same thing as saying that the wins due to good pitching aren’t sustainable. The Phils won a close game last night in which the teams combined to put up 15 runs.
The Pythagorean wins thing determines the W-L record based on runs scored vs. runs allowed, so while scoring more runs wins you more games, allowing fewer has the same result.
by zfg on Sep 8, 2010 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
To add to zfg’s response, you are confusing the retrospective luck that we’ve experienced with the prospective luck that we will or will not need going forward.
Yes, we’ve been slightly lucky to get back to first place as soon as we have.
But going forward, we almost certainly will not need to maintain that level of luck in order to stay in first place. Even if you assume that we only play at a .630 clip (i.e. the WP for a 29-17 record) the rest of the way, that will be enough. And a .630 clip represents our luck-neutral trend based on our recent RS and RA inputs.
just some food for thought
confusing the retrospective luck that we’ve experienced with the prospective luck that we will or will not need going forward.
Although, if my understanding of the Bayesian approach is correct, then those aligned with that camp, who think in terms of prior probabilities, might beg to differ.
While I will cop to being one of those who said that the team need more offense, not more pitching, one need only look at the Seattle Mariners to realize that pitching and defense can only get so far- one must still have at least a certain amount of offense if a team is to go far.
That being said, the Phillies may have just enough offense to make it provided the pitching is really good.
by dannijd on Sep 8, 2010 6:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You’re not talking Mariners level offence here. The Phils have been getting league average offence, which is a lot better than Seattle.
True. The Phillies just make me nervous with their tendency to not score runs with any type of consistency.
by dannijd on Sep 9, 2010 11:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Very well put. It’s still pretty mind-boggling to me how they were able to switch to the arms-led approach mid-season. Usually it seems like these are the kinds of things that require pretty significant offseason retooling. Granted, the addition of Halladay went a long way towards that, but the addition of Oswalt and Hamels’ dominance have been just as huge.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
And I’d hate to say I told you so about Hamels, but, well…
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
I am not so sure that I buy into this switch to an arms-led approach being a mid-season thing. While the addition of Oswalt has been amazingly helpful, the fact is that many of the pieces (Halladay, Hamels, and Blanton) were already there, and adding a pitcher at the trade deadline has kind of become a tradition for this team in the last four years. So while this team has evolved, the evolution was already in progress prior to the season, and it’s continuing to turn is as much if not more a credit to Hamels getting his game together after a rocky April and Blanton coming on strong in the second half as it is a philosophical change. This may also explain why they were able to do what appeared to be a major re-tooling mid-way – much of the personnel was already there.
by dannijd on Sep 8, 2010 6:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I was in the same boat as you toward the end of July- I wanted nothing to do with trading for rental help, and had even come to accept trading Jayson Werth for prospects to be the right decision (as much as I did not want to see him go).
However, while the average runs scored per game may be down over previous years, scoring less in the second half than the first is nothing new this year- the Phillies also averaged less runs (both scored and allowed in the second halves the last two years compared to the first halves).
by dannijd on Sep 8, 2010 4:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Nice piece, David. One other aspect to consider is base stealing. Jerry Crasnick at ESPN wrote a piece today ranking the offenses of the contending teams. The Phillies were 4th (banking on some improvement, I assume), but what I thought was funny is he finished with this:
Two years ago, when the Phillies won the World Series, they ranked fourth in the majors with 136 stolen bases. This year they’re 15th with only 82 steals. Barring a sudden spurt of adventurousness on the basepaths, they won’t be doing as much damage with their legs in October.
Rollins came off the DL on June 22nd. Since July 1, the Phillies are 5th in the majors in steals, and 1st in the NL. They also continue to lead the NL in SB%, as they perennially do.
I’d rather see a baserunning statistic that simply measures: “Number of runners thrown out on the bases/((H+BB) – HRs)” Werth’s gaffes aside, the Phillies seem to practice the SABR principle of not doing this pretty well.
I have a vague recollection that there is a baserunning statistic out there that sort of fits this description. No idea where to find it though.
I would bet that Werth would actually come out as a good baserunning according to any objective metric. The gaffes seem like a bigger deal than they are because they are so memorable, but overall, he’s good at taking extra bases and doesn’t get caught stealing very often.
Rollins and Utley, meanwhile, are probably the two best baserunners I’ve ever seen. They are awesome.
BP has equivalent baserunning runs, but it does’t take into account outs made on the bases directly; its components are net assessments of air advancement runs created, stolen base runs created, hit advancement runs created, etc. It’s here (team or individual) if anyone’s interested.
On a stylistic note, I like the one-sentence “Things looked bleak.” paragraph in this post. I am not always a fan of this device, but it works well here.
great article
I liked this piece a lot. It’s a great time of the year, and an incredible time to be a Phillies fan. Personally, my favorite part of the resurgence has been Cole Hamels. Dude has been absolutely nasty. Now that he is using the cutter with confidence, I see him having an ’08 like playoff run.
Blanton
While Blanton is the only starter who is undefeated since July 22nd, he has pitched in some amazing games. These are the results of his nine starts since July 26th: 5-4 W*, 7-5 L (Ryan Zimmerman’s HR), 7-5 W, 10-9 W (Ruiz v Broxton), 8-2 W*, 3-2 L (to Houston), 3-1 W*, 12-11 W, and 8-7 W. A couple of things stand out – lots of close, high-scoring games, and his innings pitched has been very solid. Seven times he’s gone six or more innings, once 5.2 (L.A. game) and only once knocked out early – 5th inning vs. Colorado.
- Games won by Blanton
by phillyinportland on Sep 9, 2010 3:44 AM EDT reply actions
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