Ben Francisco compared with pre-2008 Jayson Werth

by UnionFan on Jan 14, 2011 3:21 PM EST

SEASON

Age

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

BB/K

XBH

Werth

24-28

326

976

156

253

155

131

305

0.259

0.347

0.430

0.777

0.43

Francisco

25-28

360

1093

157

288

140

223

0.263

0.322

0.446

0.768

0.43

120

Player	Split	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BB/K	XBH
Werth	RHP	698	174	20	99	89	229	0.249	0.328	0.408	0.736	0.39	63
Francisco	RHP	782	205	26	96	58	165	0.262	0.323	0.440	0.762	0.35	86

Werth	LHP	278	79	13	56	42	76	0.284	0.371	0.486	0.857	0.55	29
Francisco	LHP	311	83	13	44	37	58	0.267	0.347	0.460	0.806	0.64	34

Am I saying Ben Francisco will definitely step in and match Werth’s superstar contributions just because they had very similar stats at the same point in their careers? Of course not. Taking that jump from pretty good role player to superstar player isn’t something that happens just because they get the opportunity to start.

I’m just saying that too much talk has revolved around the idea that our only hope in right field is Domonic Brown or a trade. That’s clearly not the only possible situation to having a valuable, hitting right fielder. I’m more of the belief that Brown provides insurance in case Raul Ibanez’s game goes to hell.

Give Francisco a chance.

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Comments

Werth’s problem during those years was a major wrist injury. Francisco doesn’t have that explanation so I think he has next-to-zero chance of duplicating Werth’s career path.

That said, I do like Ben.

by taco pal on Jan 14, 2011 5:23 PM EST reply actions

He’s like a poor man’s Werth.

by j reed on Jan 15, 2011 1:28 AM EST up reply actions

Poorest man’s?

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Jan 16, 2011 3:19 PM EST up reply actions

pre-2008 Werth

by j reed on Jan 16, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

That makes no sense. I forgot about the fielding. If he could field half a lick then yeah as a everday player he could be a poor man’s Werth but as is he’d be the poorest man’s Werth.

by j reed on Jan 16, 2011 5:21 PM EST up reply actions

I will tase anyone who embellishes this thread about comparative worth with a pun of any kind. You’ve been warned.

by Wet Luzinski on Jan 16, 2011 11:16 PM EST up reply actions

Why start out with the taser? Shouldn’t you vomit on them first as a “warning shot?”

by Phrozen on Jan 18, 2011 1:59 PM EST up reply actions

then you might electrocute them in a puddle of yer puke

by j reed on Jan 18, 2011 6:11 PM EST up reply actions

I thought the entire point of the taser was to electrocute.

by Cormican on Jan 21, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions

HA! But

technically no. Electrocution is death caused by electric shock. Given enough amps. the heart suffers ventricular defibullation – “a condition in which there is uncoordinated contraction of the cardiac muscle of the ventricles in the heart” Or the Big One

Stun devices don’t have the amps to get close to this. The puke could theoretically lower the body’s resistance which would increase the amps but i think 99.9999999% of the time you’d be just be stunned and smell like puke.

by j reed on Jan 21, 2011 8:27 PM EST up reply actions

Francisco and Werth’s fielding stats matchup too, at least with Field%, Range Factor, and Outfield Assists / 9IP. I’d prove it here, but I guess they don’t allow tables in posts and you don’t want an unformatted mess of numbers.

Just sayin

by UnionFan on Jan 19, 2011 2:32 PM EST reply actions

Really?

by taco pal on Jan 19, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

wut?

by j reed on Jan 19, 2011 4:05 PM EST up reply actions

www.baseball-reference.com

it’s a technical analyst’s best friend

by UnionFan on Jan 20, 2011 8:35 AM EST up reply actions

I think you may want to revisit their respective baseball-ref pages.

by yolacrary on Jan 20, 2011 11:42 AM EST up reply actions

They are fairly close, though.

For their first four seasons:
IP: Werth 2279, Francisco 2200
Chances: Werth 603, Francisco 549
Putouts: Werth 571, Francisco 522
Assists: Werth 23, Francisco 22
Errors: Werth 9, Francisco 5
Pct: Werth .985, Francisco .991
RF/9: Werth 2.35, Francisco 2.23.

Werth’s numbers are slightly better, but not overwhelmingly so.

by Phrozen on Jan 20, 2011 12:41 PM EST up reply actions

actually for the fielding I measured both players’ stats by full career to counter the myth that Francisco will represent a downturn in fielding

RF-
IP: Werth 4121, Francisco 493.2
Field%: Werth 99.0%, Francisco 98.2%, -0.8% change
RF/9: Werth 2.18, Francisco 2.04, -6.9% change
Assists/9: Werth .081, Francisco .109, +26.1% change

OF-
IP: Werth 5967, Francisco 2201
Field%: Werth 98.6%, Francisco 99.1%, +0.5% change
RF/9: Werth 2.26, Francisco 2.22, -1.8% change
Assists/9: Werth .077, Francisco .090, +14.5% change

by UnionFan on Jan 20, 2011 2:09 PM EST reply actions

These are encouraging on the surface. A couple of caveats though:

- 493 innings is a fairly small sample in right (~60 games)
- Assists are very small numbers and fluctuate quite a bit; also, Werth has a reputation as a good arm and it’s likely runners/coaches take fewer chances on him than on BF
- Field% is not that meaningul either, because error numbers are again very few, and really only measure surehandedness
- To me, Range is the only one of these that’s important, and that does look good for Francisco. My concern with that is I don’t know if it’s comparable across the outfield; i.e. maybe Left Fielders naturally get more chances, and since BF has played there more maybe it’s artificially inflated (I’ll look that up when I have more time)

by schmenkman on Jan 20, 2011 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

excellent points, especially about the assists.

Over the past 10 years, combined range for everyone at each outfield position:
LF: 2.00
CF: 2.64
RF: 2.12

Ben Francisco played almost 2/3 of his time in left field. Jayson Werth spent over 2/3 of his time in right field.

Still, to your point, it is also worth mentioning that right fielders tend to be better than left, which could skew these numbers. The only way of proving this would be combining these numbers with a sum of all hit charts.

by UnionFan on Jan 21, 2011 8:09 AM EST up reply actions