John Dewan: Chase Utley is the best baserunner in the MLB

John Dewan's baserunning metric has Utley at +77 bases over the last three years. Swoon.

7 months ago Delicious Cake 6 comments 0 recs |

Comments

Good stuff, thanks.

The opening paragraph is especially interesting:

One of the signature moments of this year’s postseason so far was that incredible play during Game 4 of the Phillies-Cardinals divisional series in which Albert Pujols threw out Chase Utley as Utley tried to go first-to-third on a ground ball to shortstop. Despite being thrown out, you cannot fault Utley for trying to take the extra base on that play. That was a great baserunning play. Utley knew exactly what he was doing, and had the play pegged perfectly.

That seems to capture the basic position in the hardcore saber-world: that it was a good decision by Utley.

by yolacrary on Oct 13, 2011 8:01 PM EDT reply actions

Which is kind of surprising to me. Yes, in a sense it was heads-up, but it was also a risky move, and you normally don’t see the saber crowd patting a guy on the back for taking such a big run for a whole one extra base. Still, Pujols did have to make a really good play to get him, so it’s not as though it was completely boneheaded or anything. I’m just not so sure it was as objectively good as that description implies.

by Rujasu on Oct 13, 2011 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, here are the numbers:

The run expectancy if Utley remains at second is 0.725.

If Pujols takes the out at first, the possible REs are 0.117 (none on, two outs) and 0.983 (runner on third, one out). So the equation is:

0.983p + 0.117(1 – p) = 0.725
p = .702

I.e., if Pujols takes the out at first, then going for third is a good move if Utley is going to be safe at least 70.2% of the time.

If Pujols concedes the runner at first, the REs are 0.573 (runner on first, one out) and 1.904 (first and third, no outs).

1.904p + 0.573(1 – p) = 0.725
p = .114

So if Pujols concedes the runner, Utley needs to be safe 11.4% of the time to justify running.

In both cases I think his odds of being safe exceed those thresholds. So yeah I believe it was a good move overall.

by Spoilt Victorian Child on Oct 14, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, it’s nice to see Victorino placing third.

by yolacrary on Oct 13, 2011 8:06 PM EDT reply actions

May just be perception, but it seemed like he really benefited from the Davey Lopes years. He was always fast, but couldn’t steal bases particularly well when he came up, and didn’t seem to be a particularly disciplined baserunner. I wonder how much of a factor that was (and just generally gaining more experience as a pro ballplayer over the years, though many players never seem to learn these things).

by Rujasu on Oct 13, 2011 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions