Raul Things Considered: Raul Ibanez's Philadelphia Tenure

by WholeCamels on Oct 18, 2011 1:42 PM EDT

(Ed. Note: I hereby acknowledge @LoganDobson for the headline suggestion.)

One of the real perks (or drawbacks, depending on how much you like your stupid statements dredged up from the past... yeah really, Adam Dunn) of writing for an older, more established site like ours is the ability to look back and get an in-the-moment look at how certain players did throughout their tenure in Philadelphia.

At the start, I'm not conceding that Raul Ibanez is finished in Philadelphia; in light of the corner outfield and Ryan Howard situations, it's not inconceivable that the team could bring him back on a one year deal to platoon or be a bench bat of sorts. I don't like the idea, but it's possible.

Raul Ibanez and The Good Phight had a funny history. If you look at that first link, the signing was almost universally reviled, and for reasons that mostly came to fruition -- if you sign a guy in his mid 30s to multi-year deal, he'll be in his late 30s at the end of the deal, and will be extremely unlikely to be very productive. And that happened.

But as we all remember, Ibanez busted out of the gates in 2009 like a maniac, immediately became RAUUUULLLLL and was a folk hero of sorts. We had a little egg on our faces and responded accordingly.

Then the stupid, baseless, borderline defamatory steroid accusations started to fly. As our own Mr. Cohen correctly pointed out, that early 2009 hot streak was not out of the ordinary for Ibanez, and he had in fact had more productive streaks throughout his career.

After his early 2009 hot streak came to an end with an injury, Ibanez settled into his weird pattern of blazing hot and Arctic cold streaks, despite having been brought in to be a more "consistent" hitter than the abandoned Pat Burrell. Overall, though, Ibanez became the player that most analysts expected him to be in light of his contract and age -- a late bloomer in a notable decline.

Per Fangraphs, Ibanez provided $18.1 million in "value" over the life of his $31.5 million contract. Not great, but not a disaster.

It is hard to analyze Ibanez in context because there have really been very few players like him -- late bloomers who play regularly despite overall weak offensive output. In the post-Intergration (1947) era, there was been just 31 players who have accumulated 502 or more plate appearances in a single season at age 39. Ibanez is one of them.

Rk	Player	OPS+	PA	Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Barry Bonds	263	617	2004	39	SFG	NL	147	373	129	135	27	3	45	101	232	120	41	5	6	1	.362	.609	.812	1.422
2	Ted Williams	179	517	1958	39	BOS	AL	129	411	81	135	23	2	26	85	98	12	49	19	1	0	.328	.458	.584	1.042
3	Willie Mays	139	566	1970	39	SFG	NL	139	478	94	139	15	2	28	83	79	3	90	7	5	0	.291	.390	.506	.897
4	Willie McCovey	132	548	1977	39	SFG	NL	141	478	54	134	21	0	28	86	67	16	106	16	3	0	.280	.367	.500	.867
5	Reggie Jackson	130	541	1985	39	CAL	AL	143	460	64	116	27	0	27	85	78	12	138	16	1	2	.252	.360	.487	.847
6	Frank Thomas	125	624	2007	39	TOR	AL	155	531	63	147	30	0	26	95	81	3	94	14	0	0	.277	.377	.480	.857
7	Chipper Jones	123	512	2011	39	ATL	NL	126	455	56	125	33	1	18	70	51	10	80	10	2	2	.275	.344	.470	.814
8	Jeff Kent	123	562	2007	39	LAD	NL	136	494	78	149	36	1	20	79	57	4	61	17	1	3	.302	.375	.500	.875
9	Andres Galarraga	122	548	2000	39	ATL	NL	141	494	67	149	25	1	28	100	36	5	126	15	3	5	.302	.369	.526	.895
10	Dave Winfield	120	633	1991	39	CAL	AL	150	568	75	149	27	4	28	86	56	4	109	21	7	2	.262	.326	.472	.798
11	Dave Parker	118	669	1990	39	MIL	AL	157	610	71	176	30	3	21	92	41	11	102	18	4	7	.289	.330	.451	.781
12	Paul Molitor	116	728	1996	39	MIN	AL	161	660	99	225	41	8	9	113	56	10	72	21	18	6	.341	.390	.468	.858
13	Darrell Evans	116	601	1986	39	DET	AL	151	507	78	122	15	0	29	85	91	5	105	6	3	2	.241	.356	.442	.798
14	Joe Morgan	116	504	1983	39	PHI	NL	123	404	72	93	20	1	16	59	89	1	54	13	18	2	.230	.370	.403	.773
15	Steve Finley	109	706	2004	39	TOT	NL	162	628	92	170	28	1	36	94	61	1	82	14	9	7	.271	.333	.490	.823
16	Rafael Palmeiro	108	651	2004	39	BAL	AL	154	550	68	142	29	0	23	88	86	15	61	15	2	1	.258	.359	.436	.796
17	Chili Davis	108	554	1999	39	NYY	AL	146	476	59	128	25	1	19	78	73	7	100	12	4	1	.269	.366	.445	.812
18	Carl Yastrzemski	108	590	1979	39	BOS	AL	147	518	69	140	28	1	21	87	62	8	46	12	3	3	.270	.346	.450	.796
19	Al Kaline	107	630	1974	39	DET	AL	147	558	71	146	28	2	13	64	65	2	75	12	2	2	.262	.337	.389	.726
20	Luis Gonzalez	104	526	2007	39	LAD	NL	139	464	70	129	23	2	15	68	56	4	56	11	6	2	.278	.359	.433	.793
21	Craig Biggio	104	651	2005	39	HOU	NL	155	590	94	156	40	1	26	69	37	2	90	10	11	1	.264	.325	.468	.792
22	George Brett	102	637	1992	39	KCR	AL	152	592	55	169	35	5	7	61	35	6	69	15	8	6	.285	.330	.397	.727
23	Carlton Fisk	102	508	1987	39	CHW	AL	135	454	68	116	22	1	23	71	39	8	72	9	1	4	.256	.321	.460	.782
24	Rod Carew	99	518	1985	39	CAL	AL	127	443	69	124	17	3	2	39	64	9	47	8	5	5	.280	.371	.345	.717
25	Kenny Lofton	95	522	2006	39	LAD	NL	129	469	79	141	15	12	3	41	45	1	42	16	32	5	.301	.360	.403	.763
Rk	Player	OPS+	PA	Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
26	Rickey Henderson	94	670	1998	39	OAK	AL	152	542	101	128	16	1	14	57	118	0	114	5	66	13	.236	.376	.347	.723
27	Pete Rose	94	735	1980	39	PHI	NL	162	655	95	185	42	1	1	64	66	5	33	13	12	8	.282	.352	.354	.706
28	Omar Vizquel	93	659	2006	39	SFG	NL	153	579	88	171	22	10	4	58	56	3	51	13	24	7	.295	.361	.389	.749
29	Rico Carty	92	512	1979	39	TOR	AL	132	461	48	118	26	0	12	55	46	4	45	21	3	1	.256	.322	.390	.713
30	Raul Ibanez	91	575	2011	39	PHI	NL	144	535	65	131	31	1	20	84	33	3	106	13	2	0	.245	.289	.419	.707
31	Luis Aparicio	75	561	1973	39	BOS	AL	132	499	56	135	17	1	0	49	43	1	33	12	13	1	.271	.324	.309	.633

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/18/2011.

A couple things about this list (sorted by adjusted OPS+):

1. Holy crap Hall of Famers. I count no fewer than 20 players who are already in the Hall, will be in the Hall, or would be in the Hall but for PED abuse and/or gambling shenanigans, and about four or five borderline cases. It's not that hard to figure out: Hall of Famers have other-worldly peaks, so good that their decline seasons are still very productive.

2. Barry Bonds' 2004 obviously sticks out, and there are a few other "Steroid Era" seasons on the list, but I don't see a strong spike in "Steroid Era" seasons on this list. Although there is Rafael Palmeiro...

We also see just how unproductive Ibanez was compared to his fellow 39 year olds; the only lower OPS+ on the list belonged to defensive specialist and shortstop Luis Aparicio, whose career OPS+ was 82.

Also hey, Pete Rose in 1980, although Rose would rebound to a fine 119 OPS+ in the strike-shortened 1981 season.

I'm not totally sure where I'm going with this, other than that 39 year old starting positions players are generally really special, and Ibanez just wasn't. On the other hand, it's pretty remarkable that he was almost able to hang with these guys, and hit 20 home runs.

Who knows what Ibanez would have done with regular playing time early in his career?

On a subjective note, despite my ambivalence about his arrival in Philadelphia, I really came to admire and respect Ibanez as a person over the last three years, and I wish him all the best going forward. A very hard worker and at the center of some pretty awesome Phillies memories.

Be well, Raul.

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Comments

I wish he would have ran out to LF wearing the coat, just once

"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
His Name is Mudd http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lo-WjUjzV_Q
@boknows71

by boknows71 on Oct 18, 2011 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Well, he did let fly those long streamers of dip spit while in the outfield from time to time. There’s some style in that.

by ThinMountainAir on Oct 18, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I’ll miss yelling RAUUUUUUUUUUUUUL! /wistful sigh

What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.

by doubleh on Oct 18, 2011 2:18 PM EDT reply actions

Good stuff. Raul is the guy who made us zig when everybody else zagged (and vice versa).

If there’s a past Phillie I could compare him to, in terms of how I feel about them, I think the closest parallel I can come up with is Doug Glanville. Not a great player, but had some good moments, and ultimately won me over just by being such a cool guy.

by taco pal on Oct 18, 2011 2:29 PM EDT reply actions

Also

There should be more writers like this in Philly:
Phillies Fans Should Stop Whining

What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.

by doubleh on Oct 18, 2011 2:33 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

That is pretty good. I’m glad someone used the poker metaphor. That might actually connect with some of the nitwits out there.

by taco pal on Oct 18, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Great article. I want to print it out, laminate it, find Jason Weitzel and shove it in front of his face while screaming, “Read this, you son of a bitch!”

by ThinMountainAir on Oct 18, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah, there’s some quality whining going on at Beerleaguer

by yolacrary on Oct 18, 2011 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions

This writer has had several very well-written, rational pieces.

What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.

by doubleh on Oct 18, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, and I’m personally of the opinion that that $18.1 mill in value is a bit on the low side, mainly because of how much his 2011 value is hurt by his UZR. I’ve alluded to this in comments before, but I might as well lay the whole argument out here once and for all since Raul’s probably leaving now. Basically, I’m just really skeptical about the UZR. Raul became a regular left fielder for good in 2006, and here’s how his UZR/150’s and Rtot/yr’s have looked over that stretch.

UZR/150: 0, -23, -7, +5, -7, -22
Rtot/year: -4, -8, -8, -3, -11, -4

Obviously, the guy isn’t and never has been a good fielder, and there’s some precedent for him having a really terrible UZR (2007). Still, that -22 is dubious. I’m not saying “watching the games” is a good way to measure fielding ability (or anything else). But I do think that “watching the games” is reasonably accurate for one thing, and that’s to judge change in fielding ability.

In other words, I’m not saying Raul’s fielding looked too good on TV this year for -22 to be real. But I do think it’s fair to ask: Did Raul really look that much worse in 2011 than he did in the past, because that’s something I’d think would be noticeable. And frankly, I just didn’t see it. If how he used to “look” matched up to a baseline of -7 or so, then a -22 should have made him look like Luzinski wearing concrete shoes. I have a hard time believing that he could have dropped off that far, from an already ugly-looking baseline, without it being really, really noticeable. YMMV, but to me, he only looked as bad as he’s always looked, no worse.

That alone wouldn’t be a very strong basis for doubting his UZR, but that’s not the only thing we have – we also have an Rtot/yr of -4 from Baseball Reference. When two metrics disagree, I think then it’s fine to use “watching the games” to break the tie.

Raul’s FG value this year was -$6.0 mill, which was based on a -12.6 RAR, which in turn was mostly driven by a -18.9 fielding value. If you put his fielding number more in line with his previous career norms, then his RAR and his Dollars would both end up close to an even 0. Which still isn’t good, obviously, but it would put the value of his contract as a whole around $24.

by taco pal on Oct 18, 2011 2:56 PM EDT reply actions

and as we noted earlier, there could be something off about leftfield in CBP (recall, too, that article about the extreme negative UZRs for leftfielders in Fenway)

by yolacrary on Oct 18, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, I remember that conversation. You know what’s weird though? Afterwards, John Mayberry started playing a lot more in LF, and his UZR was off-the-charts positive. +27.7 UZR/150 in 161.1 innings (SSS). Only two years ago, he posted a -42.2 UZR/150 in 96.1 LF innings.

Ben Francisco’s UZR/150 was at -33.9 in 109 LF innings this year. He was -12.0 in 445 RF innings.

by taco pal on Oct 18, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

good point about Mayberry; though the number of available outfield plays is such that a player’s UZR/150 could easily fluctuate wildly in small samples

by yolacrary on Oct 18, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually, I am saying his fielding looked too good on TV for that UZR to be real.

This is not to say that Ibanez was a great defensive LF. He wasn’t. However, he was adequate. He did what he had to do. The problem, even if you reject it as being completely subjective (which, of course, it is) is this: we are Phillies fans. We know from bad left fielders better than anyone on earth. Greg Luzinski, Ron Stone, Pete Incaviglia, Darren Daulton (a most un-noble experiment), Gregg Jefferies (who remains to this day the only professional player who I would routinely hold my breath when a moderately difficult fly ball went his way, hoping like mad that he would somehow manage to catch it, as if he was one of the 10-year-olds I coached), Pat Burrell…the list is endless and depressing. To say Ibanez even belongs on that list is a stretch. To say he was the worst of the lot is just…um, yeah.

For the last three years, I haven’t worried unduly about a ball hit to left field. BTW, I do hope they bring Raul back to fill the Ross Gload slot on the bench plus an occasional spot-start in LF. Don’t know whether he’d take that sort of pay cut, but he’s a good guy, enjoyable to watch and to listen to, and if the Phillies do win a World Series next year I will be thrilled to watch him celebrate.

by njns on Oct 19, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I’m going to reject that as completely subjective.

by taco pal on Oct 19, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Good stuff, WC. Assuming he doesn’t re-sign with the team, I’m going to miss having him around, crazy Joecatz streaks and all. It’s been Raul…

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Oct 18, 2011 3:13 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

yeah, for me this is different from any other player leaving the team, because more than likely his career is over as well.

Win (will it be) Today?

by Veni Vidi Vici on Oct 18, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I doubt it. Raul has a few more years left in him somewhere. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up in Miami or Seattle.

25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark

by Joecatz on Oct 19, 2011 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed — a .245-20-84 marquee line is probably enough to keep him working for at least another couple years.

-------
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011

by schmenkman on Oct 19, 2011 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Third tour in Seattle as a bench bat might make sense.

by taco pal on Oct 19, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions

I was thinking along these same lines… maybe signing with an AL team as a DH

www.southpawcurve.blogspot.com - check out my baseball blog!!

by JLS89 on Oct 19, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

yeah I forgot all about the DH when I said his career was over. Raul could always join the AL senior tour. Of course then the question comes up if Raul is a good enough hitter for an AL team to spend money on him as a DH.

Win (will it be) Today?

by Veni Vidi Vici on Oct 19, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

There are a lot of crappy DHs out there

by taco pal on Oct 19, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Of the over 200 AL hitters that logged over 450 PA this season exactly 24 of them had at least 20 HRs, 80 RBI AND an OPS over .700.

Willingham, Konerko and Ortiz were the onl;y pure DH’s to hit over 20 HRs.

Add Michael Young, Billy Butler and Victor Martinez to the DH list with over 80 RBI

Add Encarnacion, Damon and Guerrero to the list of DH’s who had better slg percentages than Raul.

Miguel Olivio led the mariners ion HR and RBI with 19/62.

For players with 300+AB, Dustin Ackley ahd the best SLG for them, 1 point lower than Raul.

Raul would have been the best offensive player on that team this year.

He’ll land somewhere and be fine.

25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark

by Joecatz on Oct 19, 2011 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions

those numbers are for the AL only, BTW…

25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark

by Joecatz on Oct 19, 2011 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Paulie played 37 games at DH and 110 at 1B, so he’s hardly a “pure DH.”

But yeah, Raul will be fine. I’m kind of hoping for him to go back to Seattle.

by Phrozen on Oct 19, 2011 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Vaya con Dios

I remember when the Phillies went to the White House in the spring of 2009 to celebrate their championship. Raul did not attend, of course, as he was not on that team. I remember thinking, “He’ll be there with us someday.” It’s a shame it won’t happen.

He was a good guy, above all else.

by ajay on Oct 18, 2011 4:06 PM EDT reply actions

Brandon Moss and Pete Orr were just outrighted. I wonder who will get the two roster spots?

Win (will it be) Today?

by Veni Vidi Vici on Oct 18, 2011 9:31 PM EDT reply actions

Just a guess: Sebastian Valle will get one, to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. And…Matt Rizzotti will get the other? Dunno.

John Bowker is also still on the 40-man. Can’t imagine he will be for too much longer.

The velociraptor was offended when you used the word "fossil" as a derogatory term to describe that older player. "A 'fossil'?! MY MOTHER IS A FOSSIL." You jerk.

"Follow me, as I ogle at some gigglesome prospect statistics." -bobbykelly, Silver Seven SB Nation Senators blog

by LeepinLizardz on Oct 19, 2011 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions

What you didn’t come down with a near-fatal case of BOWKERITIS?!

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Oct 19, 2011 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions

the only cure is more bowker?

by taco pal on Oct 19, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Don’t forget that Lidge, Ibanez, and Oswalt will probably all be coming off the roster soon as well.

by taco pal on Oct 19, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions

currently at 39 players on the 40 man (including Contreras who is still technically on the 60 Day DL)

Lidge,Ibanez, Oswalt, Bowker, Gload, Valdez, Schneider, Francisco, and Kendrick are all Arb eligible or FA’s with a chance of not returning.

(Obviously you have Rollins and Madson as well)

Mathieson, Savery, Schwimmer, Kratz, are all players still on the 40 man that could end up not on the 40 man by the end of spring training, depending on how things shake out.

There will definitely be some interesting moves made in the coming months and weeks.

25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark

by Joecatz on Oct 19, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Thanks.

Although I think it’s pretty certain that Savery and Schwimer will stay there unless they get traded or something. And if Schneider and Kratz aren’t there, you’ll have to replace them (or at least one of them) with other guys at the same position, so those aren’t really vacancies.

by taco pal on Oct 19, 2011 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions

I think Rizzotti’s chances are only slightly better than mine of making the 40 man. Spot 2 will go to Phillipe Aumont. Once Ibanez is off, they’ll add Gillies. Lidge and Oswalt will clear space for One or two other guys (James, maybe), but they’ll also need to leave spots for Free Agents. I expect Kratz will also be outrighted some time in the next 3 weeks.

by Cormican on Oct 19, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

According to Wikipedia (all caveats apply), the rule is that if you were signed at age 19 or older, you have to be protected if you were signed in 2007 or before. If you were signed at age 18 or younger, you have to be protected if you were signed in 2008 or before.

Valle’s first season was 2007, so yeah, he has to be protected.

Tyson Gillies was drafted in 2006 at age 18, so he has to be protected. Actually it seems like he needed to be protected last year, but maybe not? I think there may have been a rule change somewhere along the way so maybe that explains it?

Phillippe Aumont was drafted in 2007 at age 18, so he needs to be protected.

Other under-18 draftees from 2007: Jiwan James?

18-or-over draftees from 2008: Overbeck, Hewitt, Rosenberg, Cloyd, Susdorf. I think Cloyd’s the only one who has a chance to be added.

Probably some other Latin signees that I’m forgetting.

by taco pal on Oct 19, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions

These guys all played in 2007, so they’re up:
Leandro Castro, Cesar Hernandez, Ebelin Lugo, Miguel Alvarez, Lendy Castillo

by taco pal on Oct 19, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions

According to one of the commenters at Phuture Phillies

Tyson Gillies while drafted in 2006 didn’t start his career until 2007 and therefore did not need to be protected until now.

by Chewy59 on Oct 19, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Valle and Aumont are locks, IMO.

Gillies and James are both interesting cases. I can see it going either way with both of them, but really, even if they are exposed to the rule 5 draft, Ithechances of a ML team keeping a 23 Y/O outfielder who has never played above A+ball on a ML roster all season is pretty slim. forget about the roster spot for a second, the year of development at AA for both of them is necessary.

Different story next year, maybe.

25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark

by Joecatz on Oct 19, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I’d protect ’em both. Why take a chance?

by taco pal on Oct 19, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I personally agree with that, but stranger things have happened.

25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark

by Joecatz on Oct 19, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

The saddest of all: What might have been

by Wet Luzinski on Oct 18, 2011 10:24 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

X-Raulity.

by Phrozen on Oct 18, 2011 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

That’s Game One last year, isn’t it?

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Oct 19, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions

Oh god, in that shot he looks like he totally has it… dammit.

by yolacrary on Oct 19, 2011 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Oh yeah. I was there for that “Roy Halladay’s starting so we can’t lose” start, too.

by Wet Luzinski on Oct 19, 2011 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Me, too. Cody Ross hitting HR’s. It was awesome.

What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.

by doubleh on Oct 19, 2011 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Gonna miss you, Raul. Certainly not the best player, and probably not worth his contract, but I really liked the guy both as a player and as a human being.

by Phrozen on Oct 18, 2011 10:55 PM EDT reply actions

It probably doesn’t make sense to bring him back, and it was maddening to be able to predict Strike 1, Strike 2, grounder to 2nd, but he’ll be missed anyway

.707 OPS is pretty poor for a LF-er, but if you were to ask most people whether they would take a season from Ibanez that 1) would be about as productive as Pete Rose in 1980, and 2) would project to a 700-PA equivalent of 38 doubles, 24 HRs, and 102 RBIs (without knowing he wasn’t exposed to most LHP’s), they would gladly take it.

-------
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011

by schmenkman on Oct 18, 2011 11:21 PM EDT reply actions

I will obviously always feel a real connection to Rauls tenure here. One of the best paerts of this seaosn for me was the uncanny way he came through in the Boston game and the Pittsburg series to validate my ridiculous idea of streakiness.

Its too bad he sucked enough down the steretch and Mayberry became valuable enough to put the platoon monkey wrench into the theory.

Good Luck Raul. Should this really be it for you (and I don’t believe it is) may the good folks at ICY HOT see the value in making you their spokesperson for life.

25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark

by Joecatz on Oct 19, 2011 11:09 AM EDT reply actions

I think there’s a possibility that Raul could be a good commentator someday. He’s smart, likeable, and a good communicator. You don’t see that combination very often in MLB, including among active commentators.

by taco pal on Oct 19, 2011 11:12 AM EDT reply actions

Sorta OT, but I listen to Bill Simmons on the BS Report and he talked with Al Michaels earlier this week about commentating, among other things. Anyways, Al Michaels was saying that it’s nice to have a player or manager who is fresh out of the game to be the analyst since they understand today’s game, the players and tendencies. This theory bodes well for Raul if he doesn’t sign a new contract.

www.southpawcurve.blogspot.com - check out my baseball blog!!

by JLS89 on Oct 19, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions

He could also do postgame interviews in two languages. (Which is two more than Sarge!)

by taco pal on Oct 19, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

What is “continued success” in Spanish?

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Oct 19, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Le deseo un éxito

25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark

by Joecatz on Oct 19, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions

El tiempo de Cadillaco!

by Wet Luzinski on Oct 19, 2011 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions

yo te quiero a finito
yo te quiero, oh mi corazón

by j reed on Oct 20, 2011 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions

No way anyone hires him, he’s not a wacky jackass (Millar, etc.).

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Oct 19, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

The Kevin Millar song – A Prayer To God

by j reed on Oct 20, 2011 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Way OT, but I was looking for some run probability resources online, in terms how likely a player is to score from a certain base with a certain number of outs. Does anyone know where I could find such info?

Win (will it be) Today?

by Veni Vidi Vici on Oct 19, 2011 2:31 PM EDT reply actions

my 40 man roster

Pitchers (17)
Returnees under contract (13): Bastardo, Blanton, Contreras, De Fratus, Halladay, Hamels, Herndon, Lee, Ramirez, Savery, Schwimer, Stutes, Worley
Re-sign (1): Madson
From minors (2): Aumont, Cloyd
Other (1): Kendrick or another sixth starter type

Catchers (3)
Ruiz, Valle, some other guy

Infield (11)
Returnees under contract (7): Galvis, Garcia, Hernandez, Howard, Polanco, Rivero, Utley
Re-sign (1): Rollins
From minors: None
Others (3): Miscellaneous backups – could include Valdez, Mini-Mart

Outfield (8)
Returnees under contract (4): Brown, Mayberry, Pence, Victorino
From minors (3): Gillies, James, Castro
Other (1): A backup LF/1B type signed as a free agent

by taco pal on Oct 19, 2011 2:34 PM EDT reply actions

Hey that’s only 39.

Possibilities for the 40th spot:
- Mathieson for now, give him a chance in ST, then cut him to re-open the spot
- Offer arb to Francisco
- Carry Overbeck in addition to the FA backup LF/1B
- Bowker

Those are all fine for the 40th spot, but I don’t think any of those options are so good that you would take two of them and displace any player from my list of 39 above.

Definitely not returning: Lidge, Oswalt, Gload, Ibanez
Don’t sign any FA pitchers

by taco pal on Oct 19, 2011 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

My guess is Rosenberg and Diekman get selected in the Rule V next month. I also imagine the Phillies will use that extra 40 man spot to select some in the Rule V. They could also remove Rivero or consider him this years equivalent to Valdez/Orr. I doubt anyone would select Rivero if he was unprotected.

by Cormican on Oct 19, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmm, Diekman. OK, protect him, and cut the misc backup IFs down from 3 to 2. Use the 40th spot on Rule 5. Cut Mathieson.

by taco pal on Oct 19, 2011 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m torn on Diekman. He could be a very effective LOOGY, but I wouldn’t lose too much sleep if the Phillies lost him.

Side note: Interesting list of FA Catchers for backup role this year:
Rod Barajas
Ryan Doumit
Ramon Hernandez
(as well as Jose Molina, Kelly Shoppach, Dionner Navarro and some other good names) I list the above though, as they have also played some First base. With Howard down for at least the very beginning of next season, it may be worth spending extra for Ryan Doumit, so he can cover First when Howard’s out. It would make more sense than burning extra cash on a bigger name 1B.

by Cormican on Oct 19, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I still want to see Mayberry starting at 1B until Howard returns.

by Sisko on Oct 20, 2011 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Probaby still best to sign a potentail plan B.

by Cormican on Oct 20, 2011 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions

well then it didn’t take long for dumb baserunning to make its World Series debut

Everything's more important with bunting.

by Veni Vidi Vici on Oct 19, 2011 8:13 PM EDT reply actions

wait until they get to the bullpens. it’ll probably make a red sox-yankees game seem fast by comparison…

by Airedale260 on Oct 19, 2011 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I was expecting Cruz to catch that

by j reed on Oct 19, 2011 10:19 PM EDT reply actions

This Cards team has become a real problem. Just go away already you a-holes!

What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.

by doubleh on Oct 19, 2011 10:23 PM EDT reply actions

Why does Rzepczynski always get called Scrabble? It’s been a while since I’ve played the game but from what I remember proper nouns are a big no no in scrabble.

Everything's more important with bunting.

by Veni Vidi Vici on Oct 19, 2011 10:33 PM EDT reply actions

I like “eye chart” better, but I wish he’d give up a few runs already regardless.

What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.

by doubleh on Oct 19, 2011 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions

it drives me nuts that that Rasmus trade has worked out so well for the Cardinals

by yolacrary on Oct 19, 2011 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, just because they might well win the WS doesn’t make the trade a good one, but that’s how it’s being spun.

What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.

by doubleh on Oct 19, 2011 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Eye chart. LOL.

by Phrozen on Oct 20, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions

That would be Doug Mientkiewicz

by phatj on Oct 21, 2011 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions

That was a god awful AB Andrus

by j reed on Oct 19, 2011 10:49 PM EDT reply actions

Wow someone hacking away when the Cardinals are clearly trying to walk him. Where have I seen this before?

Everything's more important with bunting.

by Veni Vidi Vici on Oct 19, 2011 10:54 PM EDT reply actions

Well that was a gift call for the Rangers.

by j reed on Oct 19, 2011 11:05 PM EDT reply actions

Way to go blue. Assholes

by j reed on Oct 19, 2011 11:10 PM EDT reply actions

Fucking Motte. Rollins hammered a gapper for a triple against him in that last game of the 4-game regular season series.

by yolacrary on Oct 19, 2011 11:10 PM EDT reply actions

Holy Shit, do the Rangers want to be back in the Clubhouse in time to watch Letterman or something

Everything's more important with bunting.

by Veni Vidi Vici on Oct 19, 2011 11:11 PM EDT reply actions

They certainly have that look on their faces.

by j reed on Oct 19, 2011 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Seriously. Fuck this game.

What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.

by doubleh on Oct 19, 2011 11:11 PM EDT reply actions

bullshit

by yolacrary on Oct 19, 2011 11:13 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah Cruz, you kinda blew it tonight. You so played that ball wrong.

by j reed on Oct 19, 2011 11:14 PM EDT reply actions

first time the Cardinals have one the first game… maybe this means they lose the series.

by yolacrary on Oct 19, 2011 11:14 PM EDT reply actions

From your fingers to the baseball god’s ears.

What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.

by doubleh on Oct 19, 2011 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions

oh my god… one = won… ugly typo

by yolacrary on Oct 19, 2011 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I really wish that media wouldn’t blame “baseball purists” for the lack of instant replay. I consider myself a baseball purist (I hate the Designated Hitter, hate the Wild Card, and don’t think too much of Interleague play) and even I think that replay should be used a whole lot more

Everything's more important with bunting.

by Veni Vidi Vici on Oct 19, 2011 11:17 PM EDT reply actions