Why Jose Reyes Will Be a Philadelphia Phillie Next Year (And Jimmy Rollins Won't Be)
by David S. Cohen on Oct 25, 2011 9:53 PM EDT
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PrintA few caveats before I get into the substance of this post. First, I don't listen to talk radio or follow discussions on grit and hustle blogs, so if this is already out there in some other form on the airwaves or the interwebs, I apologize. Second, this post is not at all normative (not about what I think should happen) and is entirely predictive (about what I think will happen). These are two very different things. Third, I have absolutely zero inside information about the Phillies (other than about their view of how many wins Gene Mauch had as a manager, and I already shared that with you).
So, with those preliminaries out of the way, let me be very clear about what I think will happen with the Phillies this off-season - they will not re-sign Jimmy Rollins and will instead sign Jose Reyes to a six-figure five- or-more-year deal. The simple reason I believe this has nothing to do with need or what is best for the Phillies. Rather, I think it's quite clear that one of the signature characteristics of Ruben Amaro Jr.'s reign as Phillies GM is that he goes for the splashiest acquisition he can at every opportunity.
Let's review his history with the Phillies during the two most important points during the year for acquiring major league talent - the off-season and the trade deadline. Amaro was named the Phillies GM November 1, 2008. He has presided over three off-seasons and three trade deadlines. Below is a list of the biggest moves made at each of these six points in time:
2008-09 off-season: signed Raul Ibanez.
2009 trade deadline: traded for Cliff Lee.
2009-10 off-season: traded for Roy Halladay.
2010 trade deadline: traded for Roy Oswalt.
2010-11 off-season: signed Cliff Lee.
2011 trade deadline: traded for Hunter Pence.
There's a very strong argument that, except for the 2008-09 off-season, Amaro acquired the top talent available at each of those periods in time. There's no doubt that trading for Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt and signing Cliff Lee as a free agent were the biggest talent acquisitions for those periods in time. Trading for Hunter Pence this past trade deadline is probably in competition with the Braves acquiring Michael Bourn, but it's a close call.
The only acquisition that was clearly not the top talent available at the time was Raul Ibanez in 2008-09. Jason Bay, CC Sabathia, and Adrian Beltre were all available. Ibanez was a high level talent that off-season, but he wasn't the best.
Nonetheless, I think a pattern is evident here. Amaro likes splashy acquisitions, and his definition of splashy is to go for the brass ring. The only clear exception was in Amaro's first year when a) he was getting his feet wet and b) his team was coming off a World Series win.
But every other time he's had the opportunity to acquire talent, he's gone for the best out there. This is a pattern. This is what this man does. And, if this man's pattern holds true this off-season, we'll see Jose Reyes in a Phillies uniform next year.
Let me be clear though - Reyes is not the top free agent out there this year. The top is undisputed - Albert Pujols. Behind him is Prince Fielder and then probably C.C. Sabathia. However, the Phillies are not going to acquire another first baseman, nor are they going to sign another high-priced starting pitcher.
Jose Reyes is next, and, lo and behold, the Phillies need a short stop. Reyes is four years younger than Rollins. He had a year in which he got on base at a clip 0.046 higher than Rollins and slugged almost .100 points higher. Yes, he's been injury prone, but so has Rollins. He's decidedly more of a splashy acquisition.
What's more is that Amaro is probably going to feel pressure to "shake up the team" this off-season. I've already made clear that I don't think this is necessary, but I think Amaro is going to take that to heart and do what he's done before - add one of the top talents in baseball.
Jose Reyes, welcome to the Philadelphia Phillies. Jimmy Rollins, sad to see you go but you're a victim of a very powerful man's ego.
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I guess I need to find a new least favorite baseball player.
by FearTheTurtIe on Oct 25, 2011 9:59 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I think I’m gonna cry.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
by doubleh on Oct 25, 2011 9:59 PM EDT via iPhone app reply actions
No, thanks...
I really do not want Reyes here- he is even more injury prone than Rollins, and is going to demand an even more ludicrously overpriced long contract. I know Ruben loves nothing more than to make a splash, but this is one pool he should not swim in.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2011 10:00 PM EDT via iPhone app reply actions
I’m pretty sure that Rollins and Reyes are both going to be seeking contracts that are around the same length. I don’t see Reyes asking for – or getting – a contract of more than five years.
I think Him asking for a Crawford deal, then teams seeing what Crawford did last year, won’t net him anything outrages. I would be surprised if he got the Highest SS deal ever.
I think they may be the same length, but I think Reyes will get more per year, and that it is a deal that may go bad real fast.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2011 10:51 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
He’ll get more per year because he is both younger and better. Listen, I love Jimmy, but if I’m being honest about what’s best for the team (and not who I like better), then it’s Reyes. It’s ok not to want Reyes because you don’t like him. Just don’t turn “I like Jimmy/I don’t like Reyes” into “I think Reyes is bad/overpriced/whatever” because they’re not the same thing.
by lizroscher on Oct 26, 2011 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
It is not that simple- for the right price, I don’t mind Reyes. Granted, I have injury concerns about him (he has missed a lot of games in the past three seasons), and a sentimental attachment to Rollins. But my opposition is not rooted in this- I am a fan, and thus emotional, but front office decisions should be made dispassionately.
That being said, I do tend to believe that some team is going to flash crazy money at Reyes- money that is well above what any shortstop has received, and will probably be above what he is worth. If the Phillies can get Reyes for something that approximates his reasonable market value (based on WAR and what other shortstops have received), and signing him does not cause other needs (resigning Hamels, fortifying the bench) to go unmet, then I am ok with it. I do not want to see Amaro’s lust for the big deal, cause him to do something that is bad for the big picture.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Oct 26, 2011 10:15 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
What would you consider the right price? And what is your opposition to this, if it’s not emotionally based? Because I’m not seeing it. Rollins will be asking for a combination of money and years that won’t be terribly different from Reyes. As I’ve said, Reyes is younger and better, and will therefore command more money than Rollins. But I do not think some team is going to offer Reyes more money than any shortstop ever. How quickly we forget the 10 year deal that the Yankees gave to Jeter, which was at nearly $19m/year. And really, there are so few players that are actually signed for their “reasonable market value” that hoping for that in this case is folly. Overpayment is the trend, and it will not end with Amaro.
Honestly, it’s totally fine to say “I do not like Reyes, I love Jimmy, and I want him to stay.” Not every argument needs to be rooted in statistics. But if you are looking at statistics, Reyes is clearly the better player.
I love Jimmy and I want him to stay.
That said, I won’t be pissed if we end up with Reyes because:
1) Jimmy takes the money and years from someone else because it was either a ludicrous overpay (the Werth deal) or a 5/6 year deal that we matched in AAV, but not years.
2) We sign Reyes quickly, at a good deal, because he wants to play here.
I will be pissed if we go after Reyes, openly, piss off Jimmy, and he signs somewhere else out of spite, and we end up with neither of them. I’ll also be pissed if we really overpay for Reyes and Jimmy ends up with a 3 year 40 mm deal.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
WRING THOSE HANDS BABY
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, Twitter, fun!
by FuquaManuel on Oct 25, 2011 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
If this really does happen, then RAJ should resign with the job of Phillies’ GM going to the tenth caller on WIP, since that seems to be where Amaro gets most of the ideas of his roster moves from. A WIP caller will certainly work for cheaper than Amaro so the Phillies organization would save some money that way.
Everything's more important with bunting.
by Veni Vidi Vici on Oct 25, 2011 10:01 PM EDT reply actions
To be fair, no one really thought we’d A) trade or B) re-sign Cliff Lee. Apart from that, this is about right.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 25, 2011 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions
But then Michael Young and Carlos Beltran would have wound up Phillies, and neither of them are good baseball players!
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2011 10:54 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
I’d rather keep Rollins, but come on, when our offseason argument comes down to “Who do we want at SS, Rollins or Reyes” you know you have a great problem
by JpH89 on Oct 25, 2011 10:02 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
This is rather disheartening to read since I know it’s probably true. But we can think of it this way as well: Rollins is more than likely going to be signed by a contender or a contender-wannabe. If that is the case, then I hope he does get a 5-year deal and start siphoning money out of said franchise. If Ian Desmond weren’t starting to make a (rather unimpressive) name for himself in Washington, I wouldn’t mind Rollins signing there and sucking money out of that team as well.
Or maybe we’ll get lucky and the Nats will overpay for Reyes to keep us from getting him. I wouldn’t put it past Rizzo.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
I think the fact that Reyes is a hotly sought after FA this season is less indicative of Reyes’ abilities and more about how thin the field is for Free Agents this Winter, in baseball in general and especially at his position. So in other words expect the Nats to sign him to a ridiculous contract.
Everything's more important with bunting.
by Veni Vidi Vici on Oct 25, 2011 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmmmm...
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 25, 2011 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
My nightmare scenario: Nats overpay for Reyes, Giants overpay for Rollins, the Rafael Furcal era begins in Philly. No offense to Furcal, but the step down from the top 2 SS to the next best is a doozy.
by Cormican on Oct 26, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
And the eye of it is hovering over your Twitter feed!
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
You’d definitely have to change the smug advisory level if this happens.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
I think you’d have to invent a new level – perhaps “Scorched Earth,” and color code it “Trefoil”
Moyer for 5th Starter in 2012.
by Missing Jamie Moyer on Oct 26, 2011 3:59 AM EDT up reply actions
“We don’t give a fuck what you fans want”
I was wondering what size animal it needed to be to not be a pitch. - Roy Oswalt
Which fans, the smart ones or the rest of them?
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 26, 2011 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I have no idea what the masses want. But TGP clearly wants to Pay Jimmy. So if this Reyes horror happens, we have no choice but to take it as a personal smuggification.
I was wondering what size animal it needed to be to not be a pitch. - Roy Oswalt
Having listened to bits and pieces of the sports talk station, it seems like “what the fans want” = get jimmy the hell out of town and replace him with anybody because that’s addition by subtraction. A lot of the hosts are banging this drum too.
by TMcAllister on Oct 27, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that’s the consensus I’ve picked up. He’s a cancer, he loafs on the basepaths, he’s too old, he has a terrible approach, he’s uncoachable, he kills them in the playoffs, Valdez is just as good in the field as he is, etc.
Really, a lot of it comes down to “we want someone new,” because new is always exciting, at least on day 1.
by TMcAllister on Oct 27, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s sad because none of this garbage is anywhere close to true. A “cancer” wouldn’t have been retained for 11 seasons. Know who else loafs on the basepaths? Albert Pujols. But because he hits home runz and has a lot of RBIz, he’s excused for it. It’s what taco pal said earlier; people have already decided they want Jimmy gone for whatever reason, and now they’re grasping for quantifiable reasons to justify it.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 27, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
In my view, “loafing” on the basepaths is an affirmative good. If you run out every single grounder, you’ll probably end up hurting the team more than you help it. So what if you make an out the 0.01% of the time that the 1B drops the ball or what not? Is that really worth increasing your injury risk by 0.01%? Of course not. Jimmy runs when it matters.
On 610, Gargano keeps harping on the play from the playoffs when Jimmy obviously hit a sharp foul grounder, but it was called fair for some reason, and Jimmy never left the box. That’s offered as the ultimate evidence that he won’t even bother to try in the playoffs if he doesn’t feel like it.
I don’t listen religiously, by any means, but i haven’t heard a single caller say, “hey, maybe he didn’t run because it was obviously a foul ball and the play was over in about 2 seconds.” Nope— Jimmy is all about Jimmy and he only works hard when it’s good for Jimmy; if he was a gamer, he would have been running regardless of fair or foul. That’s the conclusion.
by TMcAllister on Oct 27, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
What about that play earlier in the year where Rickie Weeks hit a roller up the first base line, and just at the last second it went fair and was picked up by Howard? I doubt he caught flak for that, but I’m sure Rollins would have.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 27, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you and TP are right on that. Plus, even before Amaro’s comments, lots of people were convinced that the team needed a radical shakeup (because the team is too complacent?) and SS offers the easiest opportunity for a radical change.
by TMcAllister on Oct 27, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah it’s not like these folks want to dump Jimmy to sign Reyes. Many of them also see Reyes as a bad person. They just want to dump Jimmy for the sake of dumping Jimmy. Who replaces him is irrelevant.
I am open to this possibility, however, I would need to the contract details. I think this could happen without me wanting to tie Ruben Amaro’s testicles to the Ben Franklin Bridge, like the Pence trade did.
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
If he gets more than $100 million, Rube’s head belongs to me. You can keep the testicles. I wouldn’t lose my shit over a 5/70 deal, but given the injury risk, I’d probably offer less.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 25, 2011 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I should clarify. The testicles would not be detached from the body before the hanging.
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Can I still have the head? I think I can trade it for prospects.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 25, 2011 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
This conversation is getting a little BSH after dark.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
TGP after dark.
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
OMG, it’s spreading! Run!
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
…Was it something I said?
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 25, 2011 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
WholeCamels after Dark goes to some bad places, my friend.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Oct 25, 2011 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m imagining some Hunter S. Thompson kind of shit.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
I was neck-deep in the comments section when the drugs took hold.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Oct 25, 2011 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHS3qJdxefY
Baseball is like Crack but better for you
by kmrblue1027 on Oct 25, 2011 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I knew it was only a matter of time before someone posted this. Good song.
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
I’ve always been partial to this quote:
“In a nation ruled by swine, all pigs are upwardly mobile—and the rest of us are fucked until we can put our acts together: not necessarily to win, but mainly to keep from losing completely. We owe that to ourselves and our crippled self-image as something better than a nation of panicked sheep.”
Sounds like an afternoon on WIP.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
My favorite
The Circus-Circus is what the whole hep world would be doing Saturday night if the Nazis had won the war. This is the sixth Reich. The ground floor is full of gambling tables, like all the other casinos . . . but the place is about four stories high, in the style of a circus tent, and all manner of strange County-Fair/Polish Carnival madness is going on up in this space.
by Wet Luzinski on Oct 25, 2011 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Sixth? I think someone skipped a few Reichs.
by Phrozen on Oct 26, 2011 12:48 AM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Speaking of...
Baseball Glove, Yamaka, and belly shirt. Slutty Michael Schwimmer for Halloween.
by JpH89 on Oct 25, 2011 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Your idea’s simplicity rendered a waste of time the hours I spent this past weekend with chicken wire and plaster of Paris on my “Aroused Michael Martinez” costume.
by Wet Luzinski on Oct 26, 2011 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
What are you smoking that you think Reyes will take 5/70… I see 5/100 or better in his future (he is going to be so overpaid it is disgusting).
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2011 11:26 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Please define what you mean by “overpaid.” Because there’s no way this is another one of your hyperbolic, knee-jerk reactions. As I’m sure you know, Reyes has been worth at least 5.8 fWAR 4 of his last 6 seasons. At 5/100 for those numbers, he’d actually be underpaid by a pretty significant margin.
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, Twitter, fun!
by FuquaManuel on Oct 25, 2011 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
5/100 was about the minimum I could see him signing for (and I could actually see it being substantially more). While his past production definitely merits such a contract, his reliance on a speedy style of play coupled with his history of leg injuries invites questions as to his ability to sustain such production through his age 33 season. He represents both high risk and high potential reward, and any contract he signs needs to recognize both.
Per FanGraphs, his average value over the last four seasons is 17.975 mil, and over his last 5 is 19.14 mil. 5/100 is reasonable, and may be low if he stays pretty much healthy and productive. So, I will retract my comment in as much as I said that 5/100 marks a huge overpay. I do not retract the part where I believe 5/70 is not happening, nor the part where I would not be surprised if some team overpays- only the definition of what an overpay is.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2011 11:56 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Well, let’s consider what the market for shortstops is. Troy Tulowitzki’s extension came right after an MVP-worthy season, 6 years at $118 million, keeping him under contract until 2020. He’ll earn $152.25 from 2012-2020, $16.9 per year. Over the period from 2007 (Tulo’s rookie year) till this past season, Tulowitzki has accrued 24.6 WAR according to BR, good for an average of 4.9 WAR per season. Now, for argument’s sake, let’s say that his extension only took him from 2012-2016, a period where him sustaining 4.9 WAR per season is a bit more feasible, but still paid him $16.9 million per year. The Rockies are paying $3.45 million per WAR. Now Reyes, by comparison, has accrued a total of 19.6 WAR in that same 5-year period, or 3.9 WAR per season. If we’re going to pay the same dollar/WAR rate for 5 years, we’d end up paying Reyes $13.5 million per season, which over 5 years, amounts to $67.7 million, almost exactly what I suggested above.
Now Derek Jeter’s contract kinda screws this up completely. At only 3.2 WAR per season since 2007, he’s currently being paid $5.4 million per WAR with his latest contract (3 years at $51 million). That would push Reyes’s salary to $105.4 million over 5 years. Of course, Reyes and his agent are likely to pursue a contract close to this. But I think based on the market standards for quality shortstops, with Tulowitzki sitting at the top of the heap, a 5-year $100 million would be a gross overpay. It’s just another example how the New York Yankees are fucking up the market by overpaying (which to them, doesn’t feel like overpaying). Jose Reyes is a damn good shortstop, better than most of the other starting shortstops in the game. But this alone is not reason to start throwing money at him, and given his injury history and the fact that he put up his best season ever in a contract year, it would be incredibly unwise to do so.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 26, 2011 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
In my mind it would pale in comparison to the Pence trade. It’s a difference of giving up four very good prospects for one player that was not needed to giving up a conditional First Round pick to fill in what would be a need if Rollins is gone. An awful move, yes, but not nearly as awful as the Pence deal.
Everything's more important with bunting.
by Veni Vidi Vici on Oct 25, 2011 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd prefer the ACME Co. big splash
Swap albatrosses…Trade Howard to the White Sox for Adam Dunn and Alex Rios…flip Rios and cash to the Nationals for Adam LaRoche. It’s ridiculous, but Kenny Williams and the Lerner Family are crazy…so who knows. If Dunn rebounds playing 1st base everyday in the NL, which I think he could, then great…if not, than they only have a 15 M per year albatross until 2014 vs 25 M per year until 2016. LaRoche is owed 8 M next season with a 1 M buy out for 2013. Offer Victorino arbitration and collect draft picks next offseason opening a hole for 2012 FA Matt Kemp. If Dunn returns to form, look to trade him and open a spot to acquire Joey Votto….I love playing GM on these video games.
Thank-you for my laugh for the week!
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2011 11:25 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Canada just beat the USA for the Gold Medal at the Pan Am Games. Think Ruben can work out acquire some Canadian players and Canadian health care for a bunch of American prospects?
Everything's more important with bunting.
by Veni Vidi Vici on Oct 25, 2011 10:38 PM EDT reply actions
Where do you think Scott Mathieson and Aumont came from?
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 25, 2011 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh yeah, how about that? Learn something new every day.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 25, 2011 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions
wannabe hockey players that just couldn’t skate…maybe Hartnell can play 1st base
by DirtyWaters on Oct 25, 2011 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Does Ruben have total control over roster moves, or is there some sort of brain trust? I wonder how much input Manuel gives.
Luxury rap, the Hermes of verses. Sophisticated ignorance, write my curses in cursive
by Eaglesadvocate on Oct 25, 2011 10:48 PM EDT reply actions
Considering that he heard about Big Roy and Cliff the same way we did, I doubt he has much of a voice.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2011 11:22 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
I’m so glad TGP has officially come out with its Official Endorsement of Jose Reyes for Shortstop with plenty of time before Election Day.
We’re only 50 comments in and this is one of the best comments threads ever.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
You know what we need next?
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 25, 2011 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
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You know I love the ponies… :)
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Oct 26, 2011 12:04 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
please don't
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Oct 26, 2011 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s an Internet meme. It’ll run its course in no time, and you’ll never see it again. When was the last time “YAY Guys!” showed up?
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 26, 2011 4:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I’ll miss the weebles.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
I has a sad :,(
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Oct 26, 2011 10:22 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
And that’s the beauty. Let them run their course, go away, and return. And when they return, you remember how great they once were.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 26, 2011 4:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Must have been a good night, yeah?
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 26, 2011 4:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think it’s disappearance was largely fueled by Frenchie taking his talents to KC- let him come back in the division (heck the National League), and it would come back to life.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Oct 26, 2011 10:20 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
tee hee hee
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Oct 25, 2011 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Ya know...
This idea could have some upside…. Evil grin.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Oct 26, 2011 12:24 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Reverse Psychology Trolling
This is a new one.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 25, 2011 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Jazz Hands!
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
oh, JAZZ Hands, n/m
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Oct 25, 2011 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Flagged.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 25, 2011 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
no you won’t
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Oct 25, 2011 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s going to sign them both.
I’d argue that Cliff wasn’t the top player available at the 09 trade deadline, since I remember a lot of Halladay being available and somewhat close to coming here, but they’re close enough that that’s nitpicking.
by youaretheman26 on Oct 25, 2011 11:31 PM EDT reply actions
By the way, I just hope that Reyes doesn’t support some kind of Socialistic redistribution of wealth tax scheme with all that Free Agent money that Amaro will be giving him. That in and of itself is a good enough reason to sign him over Rollins.
Everything's more important with bunting.
by Veni Vidi Vici on Oct 25, 2011 11:51 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
The only place for Communists is Free Agency!
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Oct 26, 2011 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Does anyone think the Phillies will get hit with the luxury tax?
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
They can spend probably somewhere ~$60,000,000 the next 4 months without Luxury tax being an issue. It’s not impossible. Hamels, Pence, Closer, Short Stop is probably in the neighborhood of $50,000,000. But that leaves $10,000,000 for basically bench players. They’ll probably put 4-5 Million of that aside for in-season moves. They’ll be close, but I don’t think it’s unmanageable.
Do not want.
I get it. Reyes is a good player. Better than Rollins at this point but for my money, which I guess it really isn’t, but in my opinion the difference between what Reyes will cost as opposed to what Rollins will cost is a lot greater than the actual gap in what Reyes would provide for a team compared to Rollins. In my opinion that is.
Ed Snider is a crotchety old fuck.
That is all.
If this happens, Taco Pal and I may literally both explode from the inside.
But in reality, if I have to choose between a 5 year deal for 15-17mm per for Reyes or 5 years 13-15 per for Rollins….
It’s all about the years.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
That’s easy. If Reyes is that “cheap,” then it’s a no-brainer.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 26, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m really not sure where people think Reyes is going to get 20 per. Aside from jeter, no SS
Has ever had a contract more than 17 per and that was Tulo.
Yankees, red sox, nationals aren’t bidding on him, doubt the cubs are in, so who does that leave for a 20mm per annual value? Not many. If any.
I know you were kinda joking with this Dave, but I really think it’s gonna happen at 5/16-17 per, and I think were gonna then trade Brown, Galvis, Polanco and a pitcher for David wright.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
A-Rod?
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, Twitter, fun!
by FuquaManuel on Oct 26, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
True
Forgot about the three years in Texas, just like most Texas fans. A-Rod got 22 per as a SS In Texas. He was also 25, Coming off an 11 WAR 316/420/606 41 HR 132 RBI season in Seattle. he was also probably the best player in the game
Hats kinda the point, though. Jose Reyes is probably the third or fourth best SS in the game right now, coming off of two injury plagued seasons the year after Werth, and Crawford bombed hard.
I think if Rube was dumb enough to come in at 5/80 he’d be bidding against himself
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
I did my best to dissect what I think would be a reasonable offer for Reyes. It’s up there somewhere…
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 26, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you’re right about his value, but he’s gonna get somewhere between that 13.5 and the 20 for Jeter.
which is about 16-17mm per.
I would chance it on Reyes and have no complaints about it if he signs a 4/65 with a 5th year club option. especially if Jimmy turns into a hardass and wants 4 years guaranteed as well at similar numbers.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Brown, Galvis, Polanco, and a pitcher for David Wright?
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Bidders for a ShortStop this winter?
Phillies, Mets (though I think they go short term and hope Wilmer Flores is the future in 2 years), Giants (can they break the bank?), Angels (maybe), Red Sox (if they decline Scutaro’s option, but they badly need pitching, so I doubt they go that route). Every other team that comes to mind are renowned tight wads.
Am i crazy to think the cubs may go in? Castro was historically awful defensively this year. Theo has to have a crazy scheme up his sleeve. There is just so much he needs to do to that team.
Let me be clear though – Reyes is not the top free agent out there this year. The top is undisputed – Albert Pujols.
If he really wants to make a splash, he could always just sign Pujols. Pujols plays first base against lefties and third base against righties. You always have either Polanco or Howard available for a “professional at-bat” off the bench.
Unless Albert Pujols signs a one-year deal (which is never going to happen), any Pujols signing that does not involve a Ryan Howard trade (which will never happen) is extremely stupid.
Though I can’t say signing Pujols isn’t something Amaro would do, wasteful as it is.
Editor at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Depends on your goal—if you want to build a sustainable powerhouse that is competitive for a decades, then I agree, Pujols and Howard on the same team is extremely stupid.
If, however, your goal is to grab the headlines with the biggest free agent signing or trade at every opportunity, and then leave somebody else to clean up your mess later, Pujols – not Reyes – is your man this offseason.
by topherstarr on Oct 26, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Just because he played 3rd base a handful of times back in 2000, does not mean he A. Can still play 3rd, or B. He is in shape to play 3rd.
He is a 1B now. That and a DH. That is all. None of this MLB All Star Baseball 1999 stuff. No video games. He plays 1B.
Reyes is a cancer. He is a whiner. He is a baby. Has no one else seen his antics up in NY? The same will happen here. This team does not need a me first player like Reyes. I will not deny his talent, but Reyes is not someone I want. I like the idea of trading for a 3B like Wright either playing Polanco @ SS or signing a stopgap SS like a Furcal.
More than a few things...
A) No one actually expects Amaro to try and sign Pujols.
B) Is Reyes actually a clubhouse cancer, or is your perception of him slighted by your being a Phillies fan? I don’t know, I know very little about his relationship with his teammates, so I’m not going to make that assumption.
C) I’d suggest reading the article “Placido Polanco is good at baseball,” since it details how he’s one of the better options at a weaker position in baseball. As for moving him to short, no. He’s played less than 800 innings there, as opposed to over 12,000 at second and third. And don’t let Rafael Furcal’s postseason performance sway you into thinking he’d be a good fit with us. He posted an OBP under .300 during the season with some pretty horrendous defense.
Although he is “scrappy” and plays the game the right way™.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 26, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I am not a Reyes fan but I wouldn’t go so far as to call him a ‘cancer.’ K-Rod is a cancer. Reyes is just a showboater and IMO, an ass. There is a world of difference between the two.
Look, if it comes down to it, I can live with Reyes. I prefer Jimmy, of course, but if we lose him and get Reyes for the same length of time, then all I can do is shrug and hope he gets some good work in improving his fielding.
As for Wright, I like the guy and even last year would have supported a deal for him, but I’m concerned about the price, especially since, as Cone points out, there is no real need to get him. And certainly not if it means losing Dom or May…
by Airedale260 on Oct 26, 2011 12:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And as with most players, I think his antics would become cuter if he became a Phillie.
by lizroscher on Oct 26, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Absolutely. Usually what’s an asshole move on one club is an intense, gritty, crowd-pleasing move on your club.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 26, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
@ you and Liz: Points well taken.
See: Victorino, Shane.
I don’t know…Reyes and Wright would be nice additions on offense but I worry about the defensive side. Of course we could always pack them off to Jupiter for a couple months until spring training starts (Florida, not the planet).
by Airedale260 on Oct 26, 2011 5:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Pujols also started a handful of games this year at 3rd. I understand why you don’t remember them, he is not a very good third baseman, at this point.
How much does the positional adjustment make a difference in WAR? I’ve been looking at fangraphs, and I can’t really make sense of how it is calculated.
In other words, for the sake of argument, assume Pujols plays replacement level defense at 1st and 3rd. He would be more valuable as a 3rd baseman than a 1st baseman because of positional adjustment. In the real world, he plays above average defense at 1st—how much does his defense at 3rd have to suck to make him less valuable as a 3rd baseman?
Doesn’t he also have some sort of problem with his throwing arm that would make him less able to withstand making the throws day in and day out?
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Oct 26, 2011 10:25 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
Uggh...
No question that Reyes is a dynamic player…for about 100 to 120 games per year. But he has had injuries of a type that are likely to recur as he moves into his 30s.
Next thing I will read is that the Phils are interested in Chipper Jones for bench strength and late inning defense. That will really make me cry.
Sign. Rollins. Please. And use the dollars you will save to subtract out Gload and Schneider and bring in someone for the bench.
"I have had a perfectly wonderful evening, but this wasn't it." Groucho Marx
I have to disagree with spending any serious money on the bench. You are way better bringing in a bunch of cheap players to spring training and hoping you hit on somebody that gets hot.
Here is why:
Say you could somehow sign Jose Bautista as your bench bat. He put up 8.3 fWAR this year in 655 PA. So you prorate that over Ross Gload’s 118 PA this year, and you get about 1.5 WAR. For context, that’s only about twice as valuable as Cliff Lee was as a hitter this year.
Obviously anybody that is available and is as good as Bautista (or a quarter of that good) is going to have a starting job somewhere. So the best strategy for the bench is to go for (cheap) quantity over quality in the spring and hope somebody gets lucky on balls in play for a while, and then when he stops being lucky move on to the next guy. Meanwhile, you allocate your money to players who will actually play.
by topherstarr on Oct 26, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
To be clear
I agree with you that we shouldn’t be spending excessive dollars on the bench. Just that if Rollins is a better value and cheaper, the differential dollars could be used in other places, like the bench.
"I have had a perfectly wonderful evening, but this wasn't it." Groucho Marx
by BenDerDonDat on Oct 26, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree- given that Utley, Rollins, and Polanco are not spring chickens, I would love to see at least something of an upgrade at utility infielder- Valdez may not be a bad short stop, but he was a horror show at second and bad at third.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Oct 26, 2011 10:29 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions
If this happens, it could work out for the Phils. Whether Reyes is a better player than Rollins (which he is) is kind of neither here nor there. What matters is value. I don’t think there’s any reason to assume that Reyes will be undervalued compared to Rollins, but it’s not impossible.
Although if it’s close, this may be one of those rare circumstances where the negative aesthetics of the decision may outweigh the positives on the field for me. I don’t actually think that Reyes is a bad guy or anything, but I dislike him just because of the fact that for several years he’s been the best player on a team I dislike. All other things being at least close to equal, I’d rather stay with Jimmy and use the rest of the money to buy other stuff.
I do think that it’s bad news in any field of life anytime you allow yourself to be led by a person who’s main driving motivation is his need to prove how big his balls are. It may or may not hurt us here, but it has hurt us in the past and it will hurt us again in the future.
I do think that it’s bad news in any field of life anytime you allow yourself to be led by a person who’s main driving motivation is his need to prove how big his balls are. It may or may not hurt us here, but it has hurt us in the past and it will hurt us again in the future.
And this is my biggest issue with all of this. I have a harder time looking past a me first player than others do. But there is no real argument to be had that Reyes isn’t the better player than Rollins. However what it comes down to, for me is two things. Value. Value of what Reyes will provide compared to Rollins when factoring in their contracts. And value of what Reyes would provide as opposed to what Rollins plus whatever the money saved on signing Rollins instead of Reyes provides. And I suppose up front there is really no way of knowing what that is.
Ed Snider is a crotchety old fuck.
That is all.
I do think that it’s bad news in any field of life anytime you allow yourself to be led by a person who’s main driving motivation is his need to prove how big his balls are.
I assumed you were referring to Amaro, but that could also describe the Jimmy Rollins school of “leadership” I suppose.
Rollins is the smart play
Reyes is the flashy play
I’d be more excited to watch games with Reyes because it’s a new face in the lineup. However, I don’t really think Reyes gives you a better chance to win than Rollins
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 26, 2011 3:11 PM EDT reply actions
Especially if he costs more and you end up losing Hamels as a result.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
I’m assuming that you keep Hamels in addition to signing Reyes. The addition doesn’t make sense if it’s a lateral at best addition
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 26, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I think they’d lose Madson before they lose Hamels. If a cash crunch happened, I assume Rubes would go with more of a risk at Closer (Broxton, Nathan, Farnsworth, K-Rod (I said it), Wood)
I could see Nathan being signed on the cheap. Coming off an injury-plagued year where he bounced in and out of the closer role. I feel like he’d be willing to take a smaller contract now and prove he can still get the job done than ask for a large deal he probably won’t get.
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Oct 26, 2011 4:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think too much is made of Amaro’s ego, his alleged need to make a big splash. The acquisition of Lee in the first place, and then his FA signing, are themselves two examples that don’t quite fit. It was Halladay Amaro really wanted, and for whatever reason, he held off on pulling the trigger on that one, pulling off a nice trade for a somewhat under-the-rader pitcher (Cy Young Award notwithstanding). The FA re-signing of Lee sort of fell in Amaro’s lap. There was little indication he was making a serious push for Lee, and it wasn’t until Lee called him that he tried to make the deal. It certainly made a splash, there’s no question about it, but it doesn’t strike me as reflecting that need to make one.
I think, in fact, what characterizes most of his moves, adding in the Polanco signing and the Howard extension (and frankly the Victorino and Blanton extensions work here too), is the desire to a) solve problems quickly, where possible, and b) achieve some measure of budget certainty. This has its pluses and minuses. He gets on with the next order of business, but he also doesn’t “wait out the market”. The extra years for Ibanez and Polanco are perhaps results of this. The Victorino and Blanton extensions were excellent moves (however much the latter is widely derided), but they seemed to be in large part about avoiding arbitration per se; that is, uncertainty. The exhaustively discussed Howard extension was perverse—an extreme manifestation of his need for budget certainty.
by yolacrary on Oct 26, 2011 9:02 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Good comment. I actually agree with most of this. But I’m still concerned that the Pence trade is going to be the way of the future, just because it was the most recent thing Amaro did, and because it was just so over the top.
This is a really good post yolacrary...
..as was the comment about the Pence deal made by JoeCatz. Many Phils fans were slobbering over Pence like teenage girls at a Justin Bieber concert, and I do think the GM may have made that move to keep the peace with the fannies in the stands. I think the jury is still out on whether that will prove to be a good or bad trade (my reaction at the time- meh; my reaction now-still meh)..
There have been many worse trades that’s for sure.
Anyway, look forward to the off-season. I have a feeling there may be some surprises.
"I have had a perfectly wonderful evening, but this wasn't it." Groucho Marx
by BenDerDonDat on Oct 27, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Frankly, if anything links the acquisitions of Ibanez, Lee, Lee and Halladay it’s thatt they were somewhat surprises. Ibanez mostly for contract terms. Lee, no one saw that coming either time. Halladay had been widely known, but by the time it happened, it seemed like the deal was dead, Ruben wouldn’t relinquish Brown, end of deal.
In the end, I guess what the Phillies should do is pretty straightforward. This is a simplification, but I think it gets at the basic truth.
Reyes is X % better than Rollins
Reyes’ contract ÷ Rollins’ contract x 100 = Y
If X >> Y, then sign Reyes
If X << Y, then sign Rollins
If X ≈ Y, then reasonable people can differ. I say sign Rollins.
Lost in all of this is what happens to Freddy Galvis should we end up signing either of them to a 4 or 5 year deal…
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Simple, trade him for Verlander to be our 5th starter.
by Cormican on Oct 27, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I've decided to circle back for a serious response.
I don’t care. Well, not entirely, anyway. Galvis has one season under his belt that suggests he isn’t the second coming of Steve Jeltz. If he continues to progress next year, maybe Jimmy or Jose get to try their hand at 3rd. Maybe Galvis starts taking some reps at 3rd late next year. If neither of those options prove feasible, then, yeah, someone becomes trade bait.
If Walding is looking like a rock star in High A, maybe we can trade Galvis without hurting ourselves. If the draftees from this year all flame out, then maybe Rollins/Reyes becomes tradeable. I don’t think anyone is comfortable enough with Galvis’ skill set to make anything off limits yet.
Yeah. They should act as if Galvis isn’t going to turn into anything. Then, if he does, they can treat it as a pleasant surprise and a good problem and deal with it.
Probably should have phrased that response differently. I was more wondering if people thought he becomes more valuable as a trade chip or as an internal inexpensive utility option…
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Interesting...
heres a link to every player, in order, making $1,000,000 or more.
http://www.stevetheump.com/2011_millionaires.htm
Here are the NON STARTING PITCHERS making more than 15,000,000 per season:
A-Rod 32mm
Vernon Wells 26mm
Texiera 23mm
Mauer 23mm
Todd Helton 20mm
Miguel Cabrera 20mm
Ryan Howard 20mm
Carlos Lee 19mm
Alfonso Soriano 19mm
Tori Hunter 18.5mm
Jason Bay 18mm
Ichiro 18mm
Matt Holliday 16mm
Michael Young 16mm
Utley 15mm
Justin Morneau 15mm
Carl Crawford 15mm
Texiera, Mauer, Holliday and Utley are about the only deals in that bunch that stand out as probably correct.
I just can’t see Jose Reyes getting 20mm per.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
wow. Icount 17 out of the top 25 (not including option deals) that are BAD numbers.
Its like anything over 15mm per is usually a bad idea…
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Before this year, I would have said that Ichiro’s contract wasn’t bad. It looks bad now, but hopefully he’ll turn it around.
The others… yeah
Ichiro’s deal is a PERFECT EXAMPLE, though, of the classic 5 year overpay.
He signed a 5 year 90mm deal after the 2007 season. he put up a 351 .396 .431 line with freaking 238 hits. Dude is never hurt, plays every game, etc… and had never had a season of less than 4 WAR, and was coming off of a 5.8 war season.
He was still 33 years old.
He was worth every penny of that 18mm the first three years. and put up virtually the same numbers .
last season, in the 4th year of that deal, he played 161 games. put up 0.4 WAR and a 272/310/335 line.
forget about the average, and the slg. his OBP was 40 points lower than the lowest of his career and 60 points off his career average. He walked and struck out at his career rates. He lost a step. Plain and simple. He got older.
Thats why, IMO no matter how much it’s gonna piss people off, you don’t sign Jimmy Rollins to anything more than a 3 year deal with an option for 4. its the years. Its always the years.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
Even a team with a moderate budget should be able to survive a big contract like that from time to time as long as they aren’t constantly cleaning out their farm system. Sometimes the options just suck, and you have to pay the dollars and years. But as long as you aren’t paying free agent market price at every position, it shouldn’t be that big of a deal.
Take the Mariners. Fangraphs has Ichiro worth about $63 million in the first 3 years and $1 million in the 4th year. So say he’s worth $65 million over the life of that 5 year contract. It works out to about a $5 million/year overpay.
Dustin Ackley, meanwhile, was worth about $12 million this year, and cost the Mariners around half a million dollars. So say he only duplicates that next year, now over the life of Ichiro’s contract the Mariners have paid around $91 million for $89 million worth of production from two positions. That’s not so bad.
Of course, Amaro hasn’t really given us any reason to think that he will find value in other places to offset the high cost of the extra years on big contracts. But as a matter of principle, the extra years don’t have to kill you if a crappy market forces you to overpay for a certain position. I’d rather not have to go 5 years with Jimmy, but 4 years with a vesting option or something for the 5th wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
Actually, in Amaro’s defense: Holy crap Halladay’s contract. Halladay could miss an entire season and the Phillies could still come out ahead on that deal.
This was the first of 3 years/$60 million. Fangraphs had him worth $36.7 million just this year, and $63.1 million since he got here. I don’t remember what they paid him last year because Toronto sent some cash in the trade, but seriously, that’s insane.
by topherstarr on Oct 28, 2011 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Toronto sent $6,000,000 and it was ~$15,750,000 that year. so in 2010 we paid Halladay Blanton money.
So in all, the Phillies will pay Halladay $69.75 million over 4 years (plus another $20 million if his option vests). If he pitches approximately like he has since he got here, at $4.5 million/fWAR he will have earned the guaranteed portion of his contract before the end of May.
Or put another way, in his average start as a Phillie, Halladay has been worth his own salary plus almost an entire season of another player being paid the league minimum.
I agree with you 100%, and if it was just Jimmy that’d be one thing, but it’s not just Jimmy.
If Jimmy signs a 5 year deal at 15 per, lets say, we’ll be commiting 65 MM to Rollins, Howard and Lee for their age 36 and 37 years.
Figure 20 for Hamels too, for his 33 and 34 years…
and whatever they decide to do with pence….
See where this is going?
A 3 year deal with a 4th year for Jimmy is doable. the 5th year is frightening. As it is for Reyes, IMO, who even though hes younger, may not be as productive.
25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark
I wonder if they ever actually made an attempt to extend Rollins. Maybe after all of these years, he really just wanted to try free agency no matter what. Because it sure seems like the Phillies painted themselves in a corner at shortstop: it’s going to either be damn expensive or awful.
by topherstarr on Oct 28, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
And I’m right with you. Since Amaro took over, the pattern hasn’t been very comforting, unless you want to believe that the payroll is in fact unlimited. What’s really unsettling is that, in addition to constantly raiding the farm system of prospects with all of the trades, they could be shifting money from scouting and player development to pay the big league club.
In a vacuum, you could probably defend any of the deals except Howard’s. But collectively, when you lay it out as you just did, it doesn’t look so nice.
by topherstarr on Oct 28, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
For the record, the Phillies, right now, are ~$60,000,000 under the Salary Cap for next year (accounting for relatively minimum salaries for rookies and second year players).
Hm. How are Pence and Hamels figured into that?
by topherstarr on Oct 28, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I assume Pence ~$11mm, Hamels maybe at $16mm. $10mm for a closer, let’s say $7mm for bench and maybe a spare Bullpen arm. That leaves $16mm for Shortstop, and that assumes no cushion for in season activity (call-ups, trades, etc.). Ruben could go cheaper on the bench or seriously backload Pence and/or Hamels to free up some cash.
David’s column is well thought through. And I recognize that this blog focuses on stats and performance, not emotions. And TP’s algebraic equation above is logical. However, I absolutely do not want RAJ to sign Reyes. At any price. Even if Jimmy signs with SF and the cost is 1 year of Furcal while hoping that the Phils win the lottery with Galvis.
Astaire and Rogers, G and Jagr
Hunter Pence did not guarantee a WS, but, then, neither did Carlos Beltran.
http://www.facebook.com/975thefanatic/posts/10150388418714049
I count 1 in favor of re-signing Rollins, 18 opposed
Why are you doing this to yourself?
Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.
by TheOrangeCone on Nov 1, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
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