Trade Victorino?

by philiafan14364 on Oct 31, 2011 9:51 PM EDT

Since Ryan Howard is likely going to miss at least some of 2012 with the Achilles injury, it would seem that the logical solution would be to put Mayberry at 1B and Brown (crossing my fingers he makes the team out of ST) in left while the Big Piece is out. My question is, what if Brown and Mayberry both tear the cover off the ball while RyHo is out, or at least play pretty well?

When he gets healthy, Howard has to be in the lineup, but who should sit? The most obvious answer would be to platoon Mayberry and Brown for the rest of the year, but might the Phillies get creative? Mayberry has already shown that he can handle center field pretty well, albeit in a small sample size. Does that potentially make Shane expendable? If we can get a deal similar to what the Mets got for Beltran last year (which was a B+ prospect according to Sickles), would anyone be willing to take it?

I'm sure most would answer "fu*k no", but keep in mind Shane's in the last year of his contract, so if Brown and Mayberry preform well enough this year, he might not be back next year anyway. I know this begs the question, "what does good enough" mean?

Victorino had easily the best year of his career posting a 5.9 WAR in only 130 games. Seeing as how Victorino had never broken the 5 WAR plateau before in his career, I would expect him to regress to around 4-4.5 WAR next year. Honestly, I think if Mayberry plays every day, he could reach that and maybe more. I know there's pretty much no consensus at all as to what to expect from Jr. next year, but I don't think a 4 WAR season is that unreasonable given the progress he made this year. Basically, if Mayberry can just repeat what he did in 2011, I think it makes Victorino VERY expendable, and I would definitely be willing to at least shop Shane around at the deadline.

I know the Phillies won't think like this, but to me, it doesn't even matter what Brown does as there's really not much of a chance he's worse than Raul was this year. That is, even if bad Dom shows up in the field next year, it probably won't be a net loss; the Phillies will be no worse off in left than they were this year when they won 102 games and stopped trying at the end.

Overall, I think we should at least be open to the possibility of dealing the beloved Hawaiian at some point this year, and even if we don't trade him, the possibility that he's gone at the end of the year.

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What about a trade for 3rd baseman in a final contract year or a super utility guy in the final year, plus some prospect(s)?

by Cormican on Oct 31, 2011 10:57 PM EDT reply actions

Eh

I’d rather get a long term solution at 3rd. Polanco’s contract is effectively over after 2012 anyway, so I don’t see any point in replacing him now.

I’d rather get a good prospect and then go after Wright or Youk in 2013 since we should have a lot of spending money that year.

by philiafan14364 on Oct 31, 2011 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Wright’s a waste, and Youk’s batting stance drives me nuts. Couldn’t root for the guy. I’m hopeful that in a few year Martinez, Tyler Greene, Franco or someone else can take over third, so I only want a bridge to that player.

by Cormican on Nov 1, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions

Youk gets a reputation as a tough player, but in all honesty he’s had some injury in the last few years that make me seriously concerned about his durability over a 162 game (and beyond) season. I say let somebody else deal with him.

by teezy33 on Nov 1, 2011 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Him and his stupid, stupid batting stance.

by Cormican on Nov 2, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Polanco’s contract is effectively over after 2012 anyway, so I don’t see any point in replacing him now.

If Polanco repeats his 2011 performance in 2012, the FO should give serious thought to picking up his 2013 option. It’s a mutual option though, so Polanco might not agree to it.

by taco pal on Nov 1, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Honestly, I think if Mayberry plays every day, he could reach that and maybe more.

This is highly, highly unlikely. This year, he managed to accumulate 2.4 WAR (almost entirely from offense, his defense and baserunning were worth .3 WAR combined) in about 300 PAs. Extrapolating that over a 700 PA full season would indeed put Mayberry at well above a 4 WAR season, all the way at 5.6 WAR in fact.

However, Mayberry is both unlikely to repeat his contributions this season, as he would face lefties far less often. In 296 PA this season, Mayberry faced lefties 120 times, and righties 176 times, for a 3:2 ratio of righties to lefties. By contrast, Victorino saw a 3:1 ratio of righties to lefties, Ibanez saw a 3.15:1 ratio righties to lefties, and Pence saw a 3.18:1 ratio of righties to lefties. So, we can assume that if Mayberry were to play full time, he’s see righties about 25% of the time, as compared to the 40% in 2011.

This would be a fairly strong hit to Mayberry’s value, as he hit righties for a .342 wOBA and lefties for a .403 wOBA.
Even assuming Mayberry’s skill was well represented by his hitting last season, he’d project to have a .357 wOBA over the course of the season (of course his splits are far too small of a sample size to confidently make this projection, but clearly his skill vs. lefties and righties aren’t equal so I’d say it’s fair to project on the basis of that fact and take last season’s values as a baseline).

Certainly, a .357 wOBA is a solid number from a centerfielder, but with little in the way of added baserunning or defensive value, it’s hard to see that being anything other than a significant step down from Victorino. The problem with your assumption in the post, that 5.9 WAR was a career high and was unlikely to be reached again, is that it was in only 130 games, whereas a reasonable assumption for Victorino in 2012 is at least 150 or so. Even if Victorino declines offensively, (which I’m not so sure will happen, given that Victorino didn’t do anything last season that he hadn’t partially done in a previous season and he didn’t benefit from an inflated BABIP), he’d still have a good shot at 5+ WAR, thanks to the extra games.

It’s certainly not an outrageous idea, and it’s worthy of some consideration, but to think that going from Victorino to Mayberry (as well as Mayberry/Brown to Brown) is anything other than a significant step down is just wrong, imo.

As for the notion of a Mayberry/Brown platoon next year, I honestly think Brown is going to start the season in AAA, at the very least. His year was enough of a disaster that they may just give him a bit more time in the minors rather than forcing him into LF to start the year.

Finally, it’d be incredibly frustrating to trade Victorino for a B+ prospect after having just last year traded for Hunter Pence for at the very least two B-B+ prospects and a B- prospect when Pence won’t be getting much less going forward than what Victorino will get this year and in FA. Certainly, you can’t predict John Mayberry coming out of nowhere, but it’d still be really really irritating.

by philsandthrills on Oct 31, 2011 11:26 PM EDT reply actions

Even if Victorino declines offensively, (which I’m not so sure will happen, given that Victorino didn’t do anything last season that he hadn’t partially done in a previous season and he didn’t benefit from an inflated BABIP), he’d still have a good shot at 5+ WAR, thanks to the extra games.

I don’t think so. Victorino has never come anywhere near ISO’ing .212 in his career in baseball, and its not particularly close either. As far as I know, he didn’t bulk up in the offseason or anything, The only change in his batted ball splits was more FB, but his LD rate went down. Unless you have a good reason as to why Shane was hitting extra base hits at an unprecedented rate, I’m not comfortable projecting him to keep it up next year. Victorino’s oWAR was almost 1.2 more this year than at any other point in his career, and that was with 100 less PAs, so the extra XB hits almost certainly had a huge an influence on his high WAR this year.

4 years of less than 5 WAR a year as opposed to ONE really good year at 5.9? I think I’m gonna chalk Shane’s 2011 up to a career year, and say that the 4 years of evidence regarding Shane’s play is much more indicative of what he’s likely to do next year compared to the single data point that is this past year.

Now onto Mayberry, Maybe I should have clarified, I think its very probable that, in a vacuum, Victorino will have a better year in terms of WAR than Mayberry. Maybe you’re right, maybe 4.5 WAR is on the high side for John, fine. I will note, however, that according to BR, Mayberry was worth .6 dWAR, while Victorino was worth .5 dWAR. Obviously, Shane spent a lot more of his time at a premium position, but he also played a lot more than Mayberry, and its not as if defensive statistics are overly reliable anyway…

Furthermore, its not really unprecedented for big leaguers to 1) become good baserunners over the course of their career and 2) have their baserunning stats fluctuate. So it could be that 2011 was not a good indication of what Mayberry will be on the base paths. Also, Fangraphs has Shane’s BSR as 2.2 this year, while Johns was 1.2. Again, Mayberry played a lot less.

All I’m saying is that Mayberry will probably make the value difference between them close enough to the point that Shane is expendable.

but to think that going from Victorino to Mayberry (as well as Mayberry/Brown to Brown) is anything other than a significant step down is just wrong, imo.

Clearly, we differ on projecting Shane next year so I’ll agree to disagree.

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think so. Victorino has never come anywhere near ISO’ing .212 in his career in baseball, and its not particularly close either. As far as I know, he didn’t bulk up in the offseason or anything, The only change in his batted ball splits was more FB, but his LD rate went down. Unless you have a good reason as to why Shane was hitting extra base hits at an unprecedented rate, I’m not comfortable projecting him to keep it up next year. Victorino’s oWAR was almost 1.2 more this year than at any other point in his career, and that was with 100 less PAs, so the extra XB hits almost certainly had a huge an influence on his high WAR this year.

ISO wasn’t really what I was talking about when I was referring to what Victorino did last season. In particular, I was referring to BB%, K%, and HR/FB, as all three are good indications of future performance. In fact, Shane’s HR/FB rate actually decreased compared to the year before as had a higher FB% and made contact more often. As for his increase in triples, well, clearly Shane’s power and speed have always allowed him to hit a high number of triples but the combination this year allowed him to reach incredible numbers in the triples category. I doubt he’s quite as prolific at hitting triples next season, but I see no reason to expect a serious decline either.

As for the argument that Shane’s one year was a career year and isn’t likely to be repeated again, I’ll say again that Shane’s improvement in the skill based portions of hitting, i.e. not striking out, hitting more home runs, and taking walks, indicate that he’s likely to stay at or near this level of performance going forward. He wasn’t succeeding due to luck on balls in play or having his home run rate elevate for no apparent reason, but rather he improved the portions of the his game that he can fully (well, nearly fully) control.

I don’t really trust defensive statistics all too much, especially to the degree of of .1 WAR or so, and the only reason I cited it earlier was to show the degree to which he had earned value from offense alone. As for baserunning, I agree that he can improve, but Shane still holds a significant advantage over him in that front as his baserunning and stolen base % has always been among the best in the majors. And you misstated his BSR, as Fangraphs has it at 4.2, not 2.2.

All I’m saying is that Mayberry will probably make the value difference between them close enough to the point that Shane is expendable.

I think you should at the very least hold off on saying probably here. It may happen, as Mayberry’s second half may be truly indicative of how he’ll perform in the future. Or, he may revert back to the average AAA level player he had been before last season. We don’t know enough yet, and to say that it’s probable that he sustains his performance while Victorino declines is just incorrect. I would hope that what we saw is real, and I’m fairly convinced that it is on some level, but I’m not sure he can sustain it.

In addition, as I stated above, even if Victorino declines and Mayberry performs around the same level as last season, the Phillies could still want to hang on to both as Brown may not yet be capable of holding down the LF job on his own. Again, I hope (really really really badly) that Brown proves himself next season, offensively and especially defensively, but for now we simply don’t know. And hell, all this excludes the possibility that Mayberry ends up playing first for the majority of the season until Ryan Howard comes back, in which case this is all moot.

by philsandthrills on Nov 1, 2011 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions

I thought HR/FB was largely luck-driven? Or is that just for pitchers?

by phatj on Nov 1, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, for hitters it’s a controllable skill.

by philsandthrills on Nov 1, 2011 2:53 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions

I know you weren’t talking about ISO, I brought it up as a possible reason for Shane’s ridiculous improvement this year because that’s really the only number/stat from his 2011 season that is very far off his career averages.

His career BB rate is 7.7% and his career K rate is 11.5%, compared to his 2011 numbers which were 9.4% BB rate and 10.8% K rate. Neither of those rates is far enough away from his career norms for me to say that that’s the reason he improved. In fact, I think the difference is small enough (especially the strikeout rate) that they could easily be nothing more than random fluctuations. As for his HR/FB rate, that too is not very far off his career averages, 7.8% career vs 8.9% last year. Again, I don’t see enough to make me believe 2011 was anything more than a career year.

I think you should at the very least hold off on saying probably here.

I think you missed the qualifier at the top.

what if Brown and Mayberry both tear the cover off the ball while RyHo is out, or at least play pretty well?

Obviously, if Jr. lays an egg while Howard is out, then we’re not going to be trading Victorino, nor would I advocate doing so.

Part of me though, hopes Ryan misses a good chunk of the year because its not like the team needs him to get to the playoffs, and I really want to get a good long look at John and Dom.

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions

his ISO is somewhat higher, but not drastically so (checkout other players’ fluctuating ISOs)… what made this year a career year was that he combined different elements of other years in one place: he upped his average a bit from 2010, while retaining the HR power from that year, and also hitting more triples, as he had in 2009… but of course lots of triples are likely doubles under different circumstances, and sure enough, his doubles count was down

by yolacrary on Nov 1, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Assuming identical PAs, Shane would have hit 9 less doubles in 2011 than in 2009, not a huge difference considering the increase in HRs and triples.

Per PA, Shane just hit a lot more XBs this year. I don’t think that’s sustainable.

And yes, guys like Pujols or Utely seem to have very large fluctuations in ISO, but guys that don’t seem to hit for much power (like pre-2011 Vic) don’t seem fluctuate as much.

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I was saying that often triples are otherwise doubles… actually, so are homeruns.

so his double were down a bit, but his triples and HRs up; this year, two or three of each could be doubles instead (because of a less fluky bounce in the case of triples, or flyballs not traveling so far in the case of homers)

do you catch what I’m saying? he did hit more overall this year, especially per PA, but not out of line with his career

by yolacrary on Nov 1, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I see what you’re saying, I think we’re saying the same thing, I just don’t see him doing it again this year, because it does, at least to me, appear to be out of line with his career.

Assuming identical PAs in 2011 and 2009 (his next highest XB hit total for a season), he had 15% more XB hits last year than 09. I don’t think that improvement is ‘real’, given his age.

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Part of me though, hopes Ryan misses a good chunk of the year because its not like the team needs him to get to the playoffs

I agree that in a vacuum Howard’s absence doesn’t hurt their playoff chanves, but I think there’s a few factors that may change that. If for some god awful reason neither Rollins nor Reyes is resigned and they go with Galvis. If Mayberry reverts and the only other option is a Ross Gload type back-up. They go high risk for a “closer” and Joe Nathan/K-Rod/whomever doesn’t pay off and has a bad season (you know Charlie will stick with his guy, even in the face of evidence that he ain’t his guy). Any combo of those factors could make it painful for Howard to be out for a long time

by Cormican on Nov 1, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

projecting Mayberry as a 4+ WAR player requires privileging his 296 major league PA in 2011 (or if you really want to get crazy with small sample sizes, his 158 post-ASB PA) over the 2,975 minor league PA he accumulated over 7 years. in those minor league PA, Mayberry hit .258/.328/.457. he might be one of those rare individuals who suddenly turns into a productive player after years of mediocrity, but counting on that change is mere wishcasting.

you can see evidence of that in the 2012 ZiPS projections for Victorino and Mayberry: .274/.342/.450 vs. .246/.300/.427. hopefully Mayberry’s hot streak in the second half of the year represents a real change in his talent level, but it’s foolish to rely on that.

(of course, this also ignores the fact that if Mayberry is your starting CF, your only backup option if he’s injured or ineffective is Michael Martinez, since there’s no CF at AAA or AA who isn’t minor league filler.)

by perfectdepth on Nov 1, 2011 10:15 AM EDT reply actions

rojecting Mayberry as a 4+ WAR player requires privileging his 296 major league PA in 2011

Yup, I’m banking on the idea that the alleged tweaks to his stance are the reason he hit better. We don’t have any evidence to the contrary yet, so I think its fair to predict.

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

no, it’s really not fair to say that 158 PA are more predictive than more than 3,000 PA. it’s a best case scenario, and ignoring the high probability that it won’t happen would be foolish.

by perfectdepth on Nov 1, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions

the “evidence to the contrary” is those 3,000 PA. plenty of mediocre players have had 150 good or even great PA in their careers.

by perfectdepth on Nov 1, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Those 3000 PAs are largely irrelevant if he did in fact make corrections to his batting stance, which he apparently did. If he’s seeing the ball much better now than he did in his career, why judge him on something that he’s not doing anymore?

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

they are not “largely irrelevant.” they are very, very relevant because they comprise the entirety of his professional career prior to a few months in 2011.

baseball players are constantly tweaking their stances (or deliveries, pitches, workout routines, etc.). whenever someone has a hot streak, you read articles attributing it to this or that. now sometimes, a slight change actually does create an entirely new player (obviously, Tony Batista is the poster boy here). but far, far more often the hot streak was merely a hot streak, or pitchers figure out the weakness in a new stance, or something else goes wrong.

when you take a limited time span in a long career (again, 150 PA versus 3,000 PA) and throw out everything else, it’s wishcasting. plain and simple.

by perfectdepth on Nov 1, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

whenever someone has a hot streak, you read articles attributing it to this or that

Really? I don’t, aside from articles that usually say its just BABIP related, which Mayberry’s wasn’t. I think its pretty clear the John shortened his swing, lowered his stance, is controlling the bat better and can see the ball better, which usually are signs of a better hitter.

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions

you think it’s pretty clear based on three screengrabs in a blog post and, presumably, your own recollection of games. forgive me for not accepting this as gospel.

by perfectdepth on Nov 1, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, no. The whole 2.5 WAR in less 300 PAs had something to do with it, so did the slashed K rate, as did the 133 wRC+ etc.

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s still a fairly small sample size. Did he improve as a hitter? Quite likely, but there’s plenty of variance in hitters’ careers, and many hitters change batting stances as often as they change trousers.

by Rujasu on Nov 1, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

No evidence to the contrary, but also a pretty tiny amount of evidence in support

by taco pal on Nov 1, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Shane’s performance may or may not be sustainable in 2012, and Mayberry’s performance may or may not be sustainable in 2012, but I have a hard time thinking simultaneously that the best bet is that Shane’s isn’t and Mayberry’s is.

by taco pal on Nov 1, 2011 1:02 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t know, Mayberry made a tangible change to his game (new stance), whereas Shane, as far as I can tell, seems to have benefited from phantom XB hits. It’ll probably be somewhere in between.

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

phantom XB hits?

frankly, his September slump, which was really very bad, makes his overall numbers, including his LD & HR/FB rates look worse than they were

anecdotally, he was hitting the ball much harder, up till September, more consistently than ever before… will he keep that up? beats me. but he is, after all, an established MLB hitter, over the course of several seasons; Mayberry, new stance or no new stance, is not…. the chances are in Victorino’s favor, which doesn’t mean it’s impossible that what you’re saying won’t pan out.

but, given Howard’s injury, we don’t have to choose for a while, probably, do we?

by yolacrary on Nov 1, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

but he is, after all, an established MLB hitter, over the course of several seasons; Mayberry, new stance or no new stance, is not…. the chances are in Victorino’s favor

I’m not so sure. Victorino is largely a known quantity who just had his age 30 season. Not too many guys have breakout years at age 30. Meanwhile, Mayberry just came off his age 27 season which IS a time in players lives when they breakout, and he adjusted his stance with great initial results. I’m by no means suggesting that Mayberry will keep it up, but I’m not so sure his chances of keeping it up are worse than Shane’s.

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m by no means suggesting that Mayberry will keep it up, but I’m not so sure his chances of keeping it up are worse than Shane’s.

Being unsure that your factual premise is wrong is a less-than-ringing endorsement of the wisdom of your plan. What you need to do is claim that you factual premise is likely to be right, and then defend it.

by taco pal on Nov 1, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

No, that’s the flaw of averages. There is a chance Mayberry won’t keep it up, I’m not guaranteeing he’ll be a great player. I am, however, saying that there is also a pretty good chance (and in my mind, greater than Victorino’s) that what he’s doing is real.

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Victorino didn’t have a breakout season, his breakout season was a few years ago… this season is likely a peak.

it’s one thing for you to have confidence in Mayberry, but you’re just looking for reasons to downplay Victorino’s success

by yolacrary on Nov 1, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

No I’m not, I’m looking for reasons as to why Victorino was significantly better last year than at any point is his career, and so far, I haven’t seen much of anything other than “he just was”.

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

except you’re dismissing out of hand all of arguments in his favor…

look, his walk rate was up, and his K rate was down; his IFFB rate was down slightly, his overall flyball rate was up, but HR/FB rate was down slightly from the previous year… he did slightly better in 2011 than 2010 on balls in play, but worse than the previous few years….

in virtually every category he was slightly, but not substantially, better… the improved walk and K rate speak as well as anything else to the possibility that he’s improving, but he could easily regress back towards his earlier mean.

one thing you’re overlooking, both his defense and baserunning were rated better this year than in previous years, so that upped his WAR, too.

the upshot, and the point I and other have been making over and over, is that he was not significantly better in 2011 (meaning there’s nothing special to look for), he was just a little better in all the different areas of his game, so it looks like a career year (lots of players have career years when they are 30 or 31; shit just comes together)… nothing needs to be explained beyond what already has been.

by yolacrary on Nov 1, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

another point: offense was down around the league, overall, so his slight improvements across the board look even better when compared against the league (and affect, obviously, his career-high WAR)

by yolacrary on Nov 1, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Let me start by saying that for this, I had PAs calculated from fangraphs, and then had to use oWAR from BR, so there might be slight inconsistancies.

However, between 07-10 Victorino averaged 2.6 oWAR with an average of 558.25 PAs, in 2011 he had 4.6 oWAR, inflate that to 558.25 PAs and thats 4.9 oWAR, which is an 88% increase!!!

I don’t think

he was just a little better in all the different areas of his game

explains that. If you want to accept that answer fine, but I certainly see something going on there, and its probably luck, meaning a regression is likely.

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I already said it’s a peak, but it’s not an outrageous peak…. it’s not like Brady Anderson hitting 50 homeruns, or Norm Cash hitting .361

I also already said that, being a peak, of course he’s likely to regress, but you’re still reading too much into these numbers

by yolacrary on Nov 1, 2011 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah, I was in the middle of figuring all that out when you posted below.

Probably sounds like I was beating a dead horse huh?

I still think its a valid point though…

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions

phantom XB hits

okay, now you’re just flat out trolling.

by perfectdepth on Nov 1, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

How so? All of Victorino’s numbers/rates/stats/anything else you can think of were pretty much inline with his career averages, except for XB hits and therefore ISO. Unless you think there’s a sound reason as to why more of his balls hit went for extra bases than usual, I don’t think you’re in any position to call that trolling.

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

they’re not “phantom” hits. they’re actual hits that were actually recorded by Shane Victorino, an actual player for the actual Philadelphia Phillies.

maybe you’re not trolling, but you’re sure doing a great job at ignoring or dismissing facts that contradict your argument.

by perfectdepth on Nov 1, 2011 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions

What facts are being ignored?

All I see is Victorino getting more extra base hits while doing everything else largely the same. So I ask again, do you have a good reason as to why he got these added extra base hits other than unsustainable luck?

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m sorry, you’re wrong… slight uptick in extra base hits is not at all out of the ordinary

by yolacrary on Nov 1, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Between 07-10 he hit an average of 51.5 xb hits a year, and had an average of 558.25 PAs, giving him an extra base hit 9.22% of the time, compared to 2011 when he did it 11.56% of the time, which is a 25% difference. I don’t think that’s a “slight uptick”, do you?

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

his flyball rate was rather higher; I’m guess that’s where the additional extra base hits came from.

anyway, it doesn’t matter… I’m not disagreeing with the point you made in the original post, that it’s more reasonable to expect a 4-4.5 WAR season from him next year; it is! my only point has been that his broad improvement this year is not all abnormal, yet you keep writing as though it is

by yolacrary on Nov 1, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions

while at the same time expressing undue confidence in Mayberry’s more unexpected improvements in a vastly smaller number of plate appearances… your comments boil down to a series of feelings with a bunch of numbers spicing up the mix

but, hey, if Mayberry hits like gangbusters, and Victorino regresses and more, might it be in the Phillies interest to trade the latter? maybe, maybe not… but a lot has to happen before we’d get to that point

by yolacrary on Nov 1, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

That actually is only a slight uptick.

Using percentages can be misleading. If a player increases his stolen bases from 10 to 13, that’s a 30% increase. Yet it’s obviously still only a slight uptick.

by taco pal on Nov 1, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Using percentages can be misleading.

That’s true, but keep in mind that is from a 4 year average, so you would expect it to be a pretty good indication of the true talent level of the player.

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions

The fact that it’s a four-year average isn’t pertinent to my point though. Go back to my hypothetical. A guy has a four-year average of 10 SB. Then in year 5, he steals 13 bases. Is that not only a slight uptick?

by taco pal on Nov 1, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Right, but over a 4 year average you would expect year 5 to be pretty close to years 1-4, which is not what happened with Victorino. A 4 year average of 51.5 xb hits compared to 64.5 xb hits (negating the sample size difference) last year to me isn’t slight uptick, something changed.

by philiafan14364 on Nov 1, 2011 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

it’s not clear what kind of answer you’re looking for..

have you done the same sorts of comparisons with other hitters? I think you’ll find it’s not that big a deal

by yolacrary on Nov 1, 2011 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Ignoring the fact that taking the average of totals is unwise to do when those totals were produced over different amounts of PA’s, the average alone tells us very little without the standard deviation of that number. The four year average could indicate that he hit 202 xBH’s in year 1 and 0 in year 2-4.
Here are his totals (and the PAs he had each season):
2007: 38 xBHs in 456 PA (8.3% xBH/PA)
2008: 52 xBHs in 570 PA (9.2% xBH/PA)
2009: 62 xBHs in 620 PA (10.0% xBH/PA)
2010: 54 xBHs in 587 PA (9.2% xBH/PA)
2011: 60 xBHs in 519 PA (11.5% xBH/PA)
Okay, so clearly 2011 was his higher xBH/PA ratio of his career, but is it that far outside of what he’d done previously? And even if you believe it is, is it perhaps explainable by the increase in his FB%, which over the period of 2007-2010 was between around 35-36%, and then increased in 2011 to 42%?
In fact, that increase in FB% would explain about 80% of the increase in his xBH/PA, and the rest could probably be explained by the uptick in his FB/HR ratio from 7.9% for 07-10 to 8.9% for 2011.

by philsandthrills on Nov 1, 2011 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions

yes

by yolacrary on Nov 1, 2011 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Ignoring the fact that taking the average of totals is unwise to do when those totals were produced over different amounts of PA’s,

Why do you assume I haven’t accounted for that?

And even if you believe it is, is it perhaps explainable by the increase in his FB%, which over the period of 2007-2010 was between around 35-36%, and then increased in 2011 to 42%?

Could be, but I’m not so sure. Fangraph’s numbers are kinda suspect (FB+GB+LD+S0 =/= ABs like it should) but in 2011, Shane’s XBH/FB actually went down, so I’m not so sure there is a true correlation between the two, since you would expect that number to have gone up. Also, that makes the assumption that FBs are the most likely batted ball to go for extra bases, which I’m not so sure about. Seems to me LDs would be as just as much if not more likely to be an extra base hit, and his line drive rate went down in 2011.

In fact, that increase in FB% would explain about 80% of the increase in his xBH/PA, and the rest could probably be explained by the uptick in his FB/HR ratio from 7.9% for 07-10 to 8.9% for 2011.

How do you figure? And what does his HR/FB rate have anything to do with it? These aren’t balls in play, they are simply batted balls, so HRs are inherently included in either LDs or FBs.

by philiafan14364 on Nov 5, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Let’s try this.

Let’s say Victorino and Mayberry both play full-time in 2012.

What’s a middle-of-the-bell-curve slash line projection for each of them? How about 25th and 75th percentile projections?

by taco pal on Nov 1, 2011 3:42 PM EDT reply actions

Vic: .285/.355/.445
Mayberry: .265/.320/.475

by philiafan14364 on Nov 5, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t actually 100% disageree with the summation of the post, in that, at the deadline, provided all of them are performing there is an odd man out situation going on.

However, who and what do you get for 1/2 a season of Shane and who are you trading him to? It’s likely that he goes to a contender, as a rental, and what would be the point of doing that for a prospect? (Especially when Vic is probably going to project pretty close to type A status…) The only way that would happen is if we were out of it… (or if it was a need for need ML deal, say, for a reliever.. again, not worth it.)

If the situation is what it is, you are much more likely to get a better return if the package is centered around Mayberry or Brown at that point. It’s all moot speculation.

If you’re thinking about trading Victorino, Its much more likely that it happens NOW, in the offseason, in a package deal, and they go out and take a flyer on a guy like Sizemore on a heavy incentive laden deal, knowing that you have mayberry or Brown to fall Back on…

25.8/106 "Winter is coming" -Eddard Stark

by Joecatz on Nov 2, 2011 5:23 PM EDT reply actions

I’d actually be in favor of a heavily incentivized deal for Sizemore.

by Phrozen on Nov 2, 2011 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions

… but not trading Victorino, not at this juncture.

Wouldn’t be prudent.

by Phrozen on Nov 2, 2011 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

The rumors have already started. And honestly, if you’re gonna make a move and want to stock prospects and lower payroll obligations, Moving Vic now makes sense. His return is better now than it will ever be.

It would be just like RAJ to trade Vic for prospects, and go after Reyes,

"Sometimes, the balls that fall in are jam shots"...Hunter Pence, on BABIP

by Joecatz on Nov 5, 2011 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions

As long as he can get some top shelf prospects. Not to say that he doesn’t value prospects properly (I think Aumont’s going to be the future closer for a little while), but he could have done better with the Lee trade. I’m not totally sold on the idea that that was a half-decent trade.

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Nov 5, 2011 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions