Some Phillies Links For You, November 14, 2011: Papelbon Arrives, Reyes to Miami?, GM Meetings

I feel like Papelbon caption should be “I’m firing ma laser!”

But I’m thinking about Cole Hamels today. Where is the money for his extension coming from exactly? Is there anyone else a little worried that the Amaro plan here is that we might trade him this offseason for a boatload of prospects? Please tell me I’m needlessly worrying.

I haven’t heard anyone really talk about this yet but if the Miami Marlins of Florida sign Reyes then what do they do with the seemingly always miserable Hanley Ramirez?

And secondly, I would think that other GM’s probably hate Amaro for inflating the market year after year.

Pardon me while I annoyingly plagiarize a comment I left on Romero’s fanshot the other day. This may have been addressed in the last thread, but I can’t bring myself to wade through the hundreds of new comments that were left over the weekend.

The article Romero linked to says that although Madson and Papelbon were both way overpriced, if you had to choose between them, $50 for Papelbon is a better deal than $44 for Madson, since a $6 million differential is pretty insignificant over 4 years, and Papelbon is clearly a better pitcher than Madson.

The first problem I see with this is that it ignores the vesting option. But moving right along – the second problem is that the evidence that Papelbon really is a better pitcher than Madson is pretty thin.

Here are their recent cumulative xFIPs. The multiyear ones are weighted averages.

2011 only: Madson 2.94, Papelbon 2.16
2010-2011: Madson 2.85, Papelbon 2.87
2009-2011: Madson 2.99, Papelbon 3.23
2008-2011: Madson 3.16, Papelbon 3.00

There’s no doubt that Papelbon had a better 2011 than Madson did, but Hunter Pence also had a better 2011 than Carlos Gonzalez. There’s a reason why we make it a point not to place too much weight on single-season samples. More recent stats are more predictive than less recent stats, but bigger sample sizes are more predictive than smaller sample sizes, so you have to strike a balance between those two things. With relievers, you especially need to watch the sample sizes – Papelbon and Madson both only threw 60-some innings in 2011.

Of course, Papelbon deserves some extra credit for his league and his division, but how much? Closers never face pitchers, and while the average DH is better than the average PH, the difference between them is way smaller than the difference between an average PH and an average P. And yes the AL East is tough, but not nearly as tough for Papelbon as for other pitchers, because Papelbon never had to pitch against the Red Sox lineup.

What I would like to see is:
1. Pecotas over the next four years (I’m not a BP subscriber)
2. Team wOBAs for each team’s division rivals, adjusted to account for PHs for Ps

Now there’s Madson-to-Marlins rumors (lol).

Just hypothetically, say the Marlins do get Madson. Is the Marlins’ first-round pick protected, similar to the Washington Nationals last year when they got Werth?

So Papelbon is official, and its a lot of $$$ still

At least the Facebook crowd seems largely against it.

For the wrong reasons, of course, but still against it…

Has anybody heard how backloaded the Papelbon deal is? I haven’t seen anything so far.

Does Duke/Notre Dame allow Jewish students?

He’s a FA now right?/ Do we resign him or go after someone else?

The link to McCovey Chronicles is a MUST MUST MUST. Post and comments. Block out some time for some quality laffs.

…the Phillies won’t move him to the front office, right?

“I was here when we talked to Michael Cuddyer. He’s a very strong-minded person, and he would definitely be a great fit on our team,” Manuel said. "He has a tremendous attitude, and not only that, but he can play first base, third base, leftfield, rightfield or second base. He said, ‘Charlie, I’m a baseball player. I’ll play anywhere you want me to play, and I’ll do a good enough job that it will pass.’ "

$11 million a year for “good enough…that it will pass.” Great fit! Sign me up!

Four days into it and I’m still upset. It’s not getting any better with age. T minus 1820 days or so to go. Crap.

I predict that I will be celebrating in 2016 when Papelbon and Howard are coming off the books.

It makes you want to cheer for hyperinflation.

So word on the street is Miami offered Reyes 5 years and 90mm, or 15mm per… it’s sounding like the Brewers, Tigers, Gnats and Giants are likely out.

Who else is in?

Honestly, at 5/90 I’d take a real hard look at Reyes over Rollins before I start doling out 10 to 12 per on a LF….