2011 Phillies, Against The Odds

by Xeifrank on Nov 16, 2011 10:54 PM EST

Here is a look at how the Phillies 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season. If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Phillies games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5907 which translates to an expected win total of 95.69 games. If you do the same for my simulation of each Phillies game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5829 or 94.44 wins. The Phillies actually went 102-60 on the season. Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Phillies were the largest favorite to win.

Date	Away SP	Home SP	Away	Home	Fave	Fave Win Perc	PHI Win Perc	Sim PHI Win Perc	Winning Team	Away Runs	Home Runs	Total Runs
09-15-2011	Alex Sanabia	Cliff Lee	FLA	PHI	PHI	76.19	76.19	76.013	PHI	1	2	3
08-12-11	Livan Hernandez	Cole Hamels	WAS	PHI	PHI	72.49	72.49	69.218	WAS	4	2	6
07-29-2011	Charlie Morton	Roy Halladay	PIT	PHI	PHI	72.299	72.299	67.644	PHI	3	10	13
07-30-2011	James McDonald	Cliff Lee	PIT	PHI	PHI	70.76	70.76	70.82	PHI	4	7	11
04-01-11	Brett Myers	Roy Halladay	HOU	PHI	PHI	70.588	70.588	64.324	PHI	4	5	9
08-17-2011	Joe Saunders	Cliff Lee	ARI	PHI	PHI	70.326	70.326	70.064	PHI	2	9	11
08-22-2011	Dillon Gee	Cliff Lee	NYN	PHI	PHI	70.238	70.238	70.269	PHI	0	10	10
04-02-11	Wandy Rodriguez	Cliff Lee	HOU	PHI	PHI	69.697	69.697	62.609	PHI	4	9	13
09-14-2011	Roy Halladay	Bud Norris	PHI	HOU	PHI	69.697	69.697	67.507	PHI	1	0	1
09-20-2011	Tommy Milone	Cliff Lee	WAS	PHI	PHI	69.325	69.325	71.92	WAS	3	0	3
08-16-2011	Josh Collmenter	Roy Halladay	ARI	PHI	PHI	69.231	69.231	67.094	ARI	3	2	5
09-13-2011	Cole Hamels	J.A. Happ	PHI	HOU	PHI	68.847	68.847	62.429	HOU	2	5	7
05-03-11	Livan Hernandez	Cole Hamels	WAS	PHI	PHI	68.75	68.75	62.364	PHI	1	4	5
07-24-2011	Tim Stauffer	Roy Halladay	SD	PHI	PHI	68.75	68.75	66.207	PHI	3	5	8
07-25-2011	Aaron Harang	Cliff Lee	SD	PHI	PHI	68.75	68.75	68.769	SD	5	4	9
08-21-2011	Roy Halladay	Chien-Ming Wang	PHI	WAS	PHI	68.354	68.354	64.818	WAS	4	5	9
05-05-11	John Lannan	Roy Halladay	WAS	PHI	PHI	68.254	68.254	64.507	PHI	3	7	10
06-16-2011	Javier Vazquez	Cliff Lee	FLA	PHI	PHI	68.153	68.153	74.08	PHI	0	3	3
06-26-2011	Josh Outman	Roy Halladay	OAK	PHI	PHI	67.532	67.532	67.731	PHI	1	3	4
08-13-2011	John Lannan	Roy Oswalt	WAS	PHI	PHI	66.997	66.997	61.65	PHI	3	11	14
09-04-11	Roy Halladay	Anibal Sanchez	PHI	FLA	PHI	66.667	66.667	58.133	FLA	4	5	9
04-19-2011	Randy Wolf	Roy Halladay	MIL	PHI	PHI	66.667	66.667	68.072	MIL	9	0	9
06-10-11	Carlos Zambrano	Roy Halladay	CHN	PHI	PHI	66.555	66.555	69.478	PHI	5	7	12
06-14-2011	Chris Volstad	Cole Hamels	FLA	PHI	PHI	66.443	66.443	70.261	PHI	1	9	10
08-23-2011	John Niese	Vance Worley	NYN	PHI	PHI	66.387	66.387	58.236	PHI	4	9	13
08-26-2011	Clay Hensley	Roy Oswalt	FLA	PHI	PHI	66.102	66.102	69.299	FLA	6	5	11
04-03-11	Bud Norris	Roy Oswalt	HOU	PHI	PHI	65.812	65.812	67.663	PHI	3	7	10
04-20-2011	Chris Narveson	Cliff Lee	MIL	PHI	PHI	65.812	65.812	66.719	PHI	3	4	7
04-30-2011	John Niese	Roy Halladay	NYN	PHI	PHI	65.812	65.812	62.815	PHI	1	2	3
09-19-2011	Kyle Lohse	Roy Halladay	STL	PHI	PHI	65.812	65.812	63.77	STL	4	3	7
09-05-11	Derek Lowe	Cliff Lee	ATL	PHI	PHI	65.753	65.753	66.093	PHI	0	9	9
09-22-2011	Brad Peacock	Roy Oswalt	WAS	PHI	PHI	65.695	65.695	70.14	WAS	6	1	7
08-03-11	Roy Halladay	Jason Hammel	PHI	COL	PHI	65.636	65.636	58.181	PHI	8	6	14
06-12-11	Doug Davis	Roy Oswalt	CHN	PHI	PHI	65.636	65.636	68.04	PHI	3	4	7
07-31-2011	Jeff Karstens	Vance Worley	PIT	PHI	PHI	65.517	65.517	69.069	PHI	5	6	11
04-07-11	John Niese	Roy Halladay	NYN	PHI	PHI	65.398	65.398	62.784	PHI	0	11	11
04-15-2011	Javier Vazquez	Roy Oswalt	FLA	PHI	PHI	65.096	65.096	64.963	FLA	4	3	7
05-30-2011	Roy Halladay	Livan Hernandez	PHI	WAS	PHI	64.912	64.912	62.738	PHI	5	4	9
04-24-2011	Roy Halladay	Wade LeBlanc	PHI	SD	PHI	64.851	64.851	56.415	PHI	3	1	4
05-25-2011	Travis Wood	Roy Halladay	CIN	PHI	PHI	64.851	64.851	58.249	PHI	4	5	9
08-24-2011	Mike Pelfrey	Kyle Kendrick	NYN	PHI	PHI	64.602	64.602	60.135	NYN	7	4	11
06-05-11	Roy Halladay	James McDonald	PHI	PIT	PHI	64.476	64.476	61.564	PHI	7	3	10
06-25-2011	Trevor Cahill	Cole Hamels	OAK	PHI	PHI	64.476	64.476	66.745	OAK	4	1	5
07-18-2011	Roy Halladay	Rodrigo Lopez	PHI	CHN	PHI	64.476	64.476	59.42	CHN	1	6	7
06-15-2011	Anibal Sanchez	Roy Halladay	FLA	PHI	PHI	64.349	64.349	68.209	PHI	4	5	9
06-06-11	Ted Lilly	Cliff Lee	LAN	PHI	PHI	64.222	64.222	71.79	PHI	1	3	4
04-13-2011	Roy Halladay	John Lannan	PHI	WAS	PHI	64.093	64.093	53.453	PHI	3	2	5
08-30-2011	Roy Halladay	Bronson Arroyo	PHI	CIN	PHI	64.093	64.093	58.905	PHI	9	0	9
06-11-11	Matt Garza	Cliff Lee	CHN	PHI	PHI	64.029	64.029	66.439	PHI	1	7	8
04-05-11	Chris Young	Cole Hamels	NYN	PHI	PHI	63.834	63.834	65.891	NYN	7	1	8
06-08-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Cole Hamels	LAN	PHI	PHI	63.834	63.834	69.864	PHI	0	2	2
09-25-2011	Roy Halladay	Mike Pelfrey	PHI	NYN	PHI	63.834	63.834	59.961	PHI	9	4	13
07-22-2011	Cory Luebke	Cole Hamels	SD	PHI	PHI	63.57	63.57	63.686	PHI	1	3	4
07-03-11	Cliff Lee	Jo-Jo Reyes	PHI	TOR	PHI	63.303	63.303	60.566	TOR	4	7	11
09-21-2011	John Lannan	Vance Worley	WAS	PHI	PHI	63.031	63.031	69.71	WAS	7	5	12
06-07-11	Rubby DeLaRosa	Roy Oswalt	LAN	PHI	PHI	62.894	62.894	67.468	LAN	6	2	8
07-08-11	Brandon Beachy	Roy Halladay	ATL	PHI	PHI	62.756	62.756	69.374	PHI	2	3	5
05-01-11	Chris Young	Cliff Lee	NYN	PHI	PHI	62.687	62.687	69.055	NYN	2	1	3
07-10-11	Derek Lowe	Cole Hamels	ATL	PHI	PHI	62.547	62.547	61.518	PHI	1	14	15
08-09-11	Cliff Lee	Ted Lilly	PHI	LAN	PHI	62.477	62.477	64.426	PHI	2	1	3
05-31-2011	Cliff Lee	Jason Marquis	PHI	WAS	PHI	62.477	62.477	62.33	WAS	2	10	12
09-12-11	Roy Oswalt	Brett Myers	PHI	HOU	PHI	62.335	62.335	62.314	HOU	1	5	6
09-26-2011	Cliff Lee	Randall Delgado	PHI	ATL	PHI	62.121	62.121	62.161	PHI	4	2	6
05-20-2011	C.J. Wilson	Roy Halladay	TEX	PHI	PHI	62.049	62.049	56.788	PHI	2	3	5
07-27-2011	Matt Cain	Cole Hamels	SF	PHI	PHI	61.977	61.977	60.713	SF	2	1	3
08-31-2011	Cliff Lee	Dontrelle Willis	PHI	CIN	PHI	61.832	61.832	54.785	PHI	3	0	3
06-21-2011	Roy Halladay	Kyle McClellan	PHI	STL	PHI	61.464	61.464	62.278	PHI	10	2	12
09-03-11	Cole Hamels	Ricky Nolasco	PHI	FLA	PHI	61.39	61.39	54.96	FLA	4	8	12
09-20-2011	Ross Detwiler	Kyle Kendrick	WAS	PHI	PHI	61.39	61.39	61.65	WAS	4	3	7
05-23-2011	Bronson Arroyo	Cole Hamels	CIN	PHI	PHI	61.165	61.165	63.991	PHI	3	10	13
08-08-11	Roy Halladay	Hiroki Kuroda	PHI	LAN	PHI	61.014	61.014	60.785	PHI	5	3	8
04-17-2011	Anibal Sanchez	Cole Hamels	FLA	PHI	PHI	60.861	60.861	61.289	PHI	2	3	5
07-05-11	Cole Hamels	Chris Volstad	PHI	FLA	PHI	60.707	60.707	66.463	PHI	14	2	16
07-02-11	Roy Halladay	Carlos Villanueva	PHI	TOR	PHI	60.239	60.239	64.421	PHI	5	3	8
05-06-11	Derek Lowe	Cliff Lee	ATL	PHI	PHI	60.239	60.239	62.946	ATL	5	0	5
06-15-2011	Elih Villanueva	Kyle Kendrick	FLA	PHI	PHI	60.239	60.239	64.49	PHI	1	8	9
06-24-2011	Guillermo Moscoso	Vance Worley	OAK	PHI	PHI	60.239	60.239	60.348	PHI	0	1	1
07-09-11	Tommy Hanson	Cliff Lee	ATL	PHI	PHI	59.759	59.759	58.823	ATL	4	1	5
04-27-2011	Cole Hamels	Joe Saunders	PHI	ARI	PHI	59.759	59.759	59.225	PHI	8	4	12
05-26-2011	Homer Bailey	Cliff Lee	CIN	PHI	PHI	59.759	59.759	60.401	PHI	4	10	14
05-28-2011	Cole Hamels	Mike Pelfrey	PHI	NYN	PHI	59.759	59.759	59.013	PHI	5	2	7
06-03-11	Cole Hamels	Jeff Karstens	PHI	PIT	PHI	59.596	59.596	62.264	PIT	1	2	3
05-04-11	Jason Marquis	Vance Worley	WAS	PHI	PHI	59.596	59.596	48.431	PHI	4	7	11
04-14-2011	Cliff Lee	Jordan Zimmerman	PHI	WAS	PHI	59.514	59.514	56.566	PHI	4	0	4
05-21-2011	Colby Lewis	Cliff Lee	TEX	PHI	PHI	59.514	59.514	63.186	PHI	0	2	2
05-22-2011	Matt Harrison	Roy Oswalt	TEX	PHI	PHI	59.432	59.432	61.011	TEX	2	0	2
06-19-2011	Cole Hamels	Jason Vargas	PHI	SEA	PHI	59.432	59.432	54.651	SEA	0	2	2
04-25-2011	Cliff Lee	Ian Kennedy	PHI	ARI	PHI	59.267	59.267	58.307	ARI	0	4	4
07-19-2011	Cliff Lee	Matt Garza	PHI	CHN	PHI	59.1	59.1	50.331	PHI	4	2	6
06-01-11	Roy Oswalt	John Lannan	PHI	WAS	PHI	58.932	58.932	56.278	WAS	1	2	3
09-10-11	Cliff Lee	Randy Wolf	PHI	MIL	PHI	58.932	58.932	57.028	PHI	3	2	5
08-18-2011	Ian Kennedy	Vance Worley	ARI	PHI	PHI	58.932	58.932	60.01	PHI	1	4	5
06-09-11	Randy Wells	Kyle Kendrick	CHN	PHI	PHI	58.763	58.763	62.202	CHN	4	3	7
09-15-2011	Anibal Sanchez	Kyle Kendrick	FLA	PHI	PHI	58.678	58.678	54.327	PHI	1	3	4
06-22-2011	Cliff Lee	Kyle Lohse	PHI	STL	PHI	58.246	58.246	60.314	PHI	4	0	4
08-29-2011	Cole Hamels	Homer Bailey	PHI	CIN	PHI	58.246	58.246	55.268	PHI	3	2	5
05-08-11	Jair Jurrjens	Cole Hamels	ATL	PHI	PHI	57.806	57.806	64.24	ATL	5	2	7
09-17-2011	Jake Westbrook	Roy Oswalt	STL	PHI	PHI	57.627	57.627	55.88	PHI	2	9	11
05-18-2011	Jorge de la Rosa	Cole Hamels	COL	PHI	PHI	57.537	57.537	59.044	PHI	1	2	3
08-19-2011	Roy Oswalt	Livan Hernandez	PHI	WAS	PHI	57.537	57.537	52.405	WAS	4	8	12
09-07-11	Brandon Beachy	Roy Oswalt	ATL	PHI	PHI	57.173	57.173	57.012	PHI	2	3	5
09-09-11	Roy Halladay	Shaun Marcum	PHI	MIL	PHI	57.173	57.173	56.303	PHI	5	3	8
07-23-2011	Mat Latos	Kyle Kendrick	SD	PHI	PHI	57.173	57.173	51.718	PHI	6	8	14
08-04-11	Cliff Lee	Madison Bumgarner	PHI	SF	PHI	56.989	56.989	46.404	PHI	3	0	3
04-29-2011	Mike Pelfrey	Vance Worley	NYN	PHI	PHI	56.897	56.897	51.724	PHI	3	10	13
09-24-2011	Cole Hamels	R.A. Dickey	PHI	NYN	PHI	56.897	56.897	57.16	NYN	1	2	3
09-16-2011	Jaime Garcia	Vance Worley	STL	PHI	PHI	56.803	56.803	50.504	STL	4	2	6
08-01-11	Cole Hamels	Jhoulys Chacin	PHI	COL	PHI	56.71	56.71	54.213	PHI	4	3	7
09-02-11	Roy Oswalt	Brad Hand	PHI	FLA	PHI	56.616	56.616	56.717	PHI	5	3	8
07-16-2011	Cole Hamels	John Niese	PHI	NYN	PHI	56.616	56.616	52.077	NYN	2	11	13
04-06-11	Mike Pelfrey	Joe Blanton	NYN	PHI	PHI	56.14	56.14	55.562	PHI	7	10	17
09-01-11	Vance Worley	Mike Leake	PHI	CIN	PHI	56.044	56.044	52.137	PHI	6	4	10
05-16-2011	Cliff Lee	Jake Westbrook	PHI	STL	PHI	55.85	55.85	52.209	STL	1	3	4
05-27-2011	Roy Oswalt	Chris Capuano	PHI	NYN	PHI	55.654	55.654	58.306	PHI	6	4	10
08-06-11	Cole Hamels	Matt Cain	PHI	SF	PHI	55.457	55.457	50.115	PHI	2	1	3
08-10-11	Vance Worley	Chad Billingsley	PHI	LAN	PHI	54.853	54.853	51.74	PHI	9	8	17
09-08-11	Cole Hamels	Chris Narveson	PHI	MIL	PHI	54.751	54.751	53.635	PHI	7	2	9
06-29-2011	John Lackey	Vance Worley	BOS	PHI	PHI	54.649	54.649	52.411	PHI	1	2	3
04-26-2011	Roy Oswalt	Daniel Hudson	PHI	ARI	PHI	54.023	54.023	51.95	ARI	5	7	12
06-28-2011	Josh Beckett	Cliff Lee	BOS	PHI	PHI	54.023	54.023	60.841	PHI	0	5	5
06-30-2011	Jon Lester	Cole Hamels	BOS	PHI	PHI	53.811	53.811	59.756	BOS	5	2	7
09-06-11	Tim Hudson	Vance Worley	ATL	PHI	PHI	53.596	53.596	60.484	PHI	3	6	9
04-12-11	Joe Blanton	Livan Hernandez	PHI	WAS	PHI	53.596	53.596	48.174	WAS	4	7	11
04-18-2011	Shaun Marcum	Joe Blanton	MIL	PHI	PHI	53.38	53.38	57.671	MIL	6	3	9
09-18-2011	Chris Carpenter	Cole Hamels	STL	PHI	PHI	53.38	53.38	53.89	STL	5	0	5
08-05-11	Vance Worley	Jonathan Sanchez	PHI	SF	PHI	53.162	53.162	48.231	PHI	9	2	11
04-22-2011	Cole Hamels	Clayton Richard	PHI	SD	PHI	53.162	53.162	49.618	PHI	2	0	2
05-15-2011	Roy Halladay	Tim Hudson	PHI	ATL	PHI	52.381	52.381	54.811	ATL	2	3	5
09-24-2011	Joe Blanton	Dillon Gee	PHI	NYN	PHI	52.267	52.267	50.28	NYN	3	6	9
05-29-2011	Vance Worley	John Niese	PHI	NYN	PHI	51.807	51.807	43.375	NYN	5	9	14
08-02-11	Kyle Kendrick	Aaron Cook	PHI	COL	PHI	51.574	51.574	42.53	PHI	5	0	5
04-21-2011	Roy Oswalt	Mat Latos	PHI	SD	PHI	51.338	51.338	48.66	PHI	3	0	3
07-26-2011	Tim Lincecum	Vance Worley	SF	PHI	PHI	51.338	51.338	54.618	PHI	2	7	9
05-07-11	Julio Teheren	Kyle Kendrick	ATL	PHI	PHI	51.22	51.22	55.991	PHI	0	3	3
05-11-11	Cliff Lee	Ricky Nolasco	PHI	FLA	PHI	51.1	51.1	56.771	PHI	5	3	8
05-24-2011	Johnny Cueto	Vance Worley	CIN	PHI	PHI	51.1	51.1	46.363	CIN	6	3	9
07-17-2011	Kyle Kendrick	Mike Pelfrey	PHI	NYN	PHI	50.98	50.98	50.776	PHI	8	5	13
07-15-2011	Vance Worley	R.A. Dickey	PHI	NYN	PHI	50.86	50.86	51.987	PHI	7	2	9
06-04-11	Kyle Kendrick	Charlie Morton	PHI	PIT	PHI	50.739	50.739	50.748	PIT	3	6	9
09-27-2011	Roy Oswalt	Derek Lowe	PHI	ATL	PHI	50.617	50.617	48.59	PHI	7	1	8
04-08-11	Cliff Lee	Tim Hudson	PHI	ATL	PHI	50.495	50.495	55.739	ATL	3	6	9
05-09-11	Joe Blanton	Javier Vazquez	PHI	FLA	PHI	50.249	50.249	53.872	PHI	6	4	10
07-20-2011	Vance Worley	Ryan Dempster	PHI	CHN	PHI	50.249	50.249	45.342	PHI	9	1	10
05-10-11	Roy Halladay	Josh Johnson	PHI	FLA	PHI	50	50	49.939	FLA	1	2	3
04-23-2011	Joe Blanton	Tim Stauffer	PHI	SD	SD	50.249	49.751	44.851	PHI	4	2	6
05-13-2011	Cole Hamels	Brandon Beachy	PHI	ATL	ATL	50.617	49.383	54.929	PHI	5	4	9
04-09-11	Roy Oswalt	Brandon Beachy	PHI	ATL	ATL	51.338	48.662	52.631	PHI	10	2	12
06-23-2011	Roy Oswalt	Chris Carpenter	PHI	STL	STL	51.338	48.662	49.936	STL	2	12	14
06-17-2011	Roy Oswalt	Michael Pineda	PHI	SEA	SEA	51.456	48.544	47.245	SEA	2	4	6
07-04-11	Vance Worley	Ricky Nolasco	PHI	FLA	FLA	51.691	48.309	49.798	PHI	1	0	1
09-11-11	Vance Worley	Yovanni Gallardo	PHI	MIL	MIL	52.038	47.962	50.326	MIL	2	3	5
05-19-2011	Jhoulys Chacin	Joe Blanton	COL	PHI	COL	52.267	47.733	50.41	COL	7	1	8
07-28-2011	Tim Lincecum	Kyle Kendrick	SF	PHI	SF	52.381	47.619	43.651	SF	4	1	5
04-10-11	Cole Hamels	Derek Lowe	PHI	ATL	ATL	52.719	47.281	50.841	PHI	3	0	3
08-20-2011	Kyle Kendrick	John Lannan	PHI	WAS	WAS	54.023	45.977	45.993	PHI	5	0	5
07-06-11	Kyle Kendrick	Anibal Sanchez	PHI	FLA	FLA	55.056	44.944	41.11	FLA	6	7	13
08-07-11	Roy Oswalt	Tim Lincecum	PHI	SF	SF	55.752	44.248	42.182	SF	1	3	4
05-17-2011	Roy Oswalt	Jaime Garcia	PHI	STL	STL	57.627	42.373	37.797	STL	1	2	3
06-18-2011	Vance Worley	Felx Hernandez	PHI	SEA	SEA	57.627	42.373	38.023	PHI	5	1	6
07-01-11	Kyle Kendrick	Ricky Romero	PHI	TOR	TOR	59.1	40.9	44.042	PHI	7	6	13
09-28-2011	Joe Blanton	Tim Hudson	PHI	ATL	ATL	60.08	39.92	39.841	PHI	4	3	7
05-14-2011	Joe Blanton	Jair Jurrjens	PHI	ATL	ATL	60.239	39.761	47.831	ATL	3	5	8

Tweet Comment 7 comments | 1 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Wow, where on Earth did you find all this data / how long did it take to compile? Great stuff.

Also, interesting to note that the Phillies were favored to win 144 of their 162 matchups. That’s got to be the most of any team in baseball. And the 18 games, were they weren’t favored to win, they went 9-9. Not as sparkling a record as the 93-51 record for the other games. But hey, if you beat the casino odds 50% of the time, your ass is out the door in a flash because they assume you’re cheating.

Some people don't think it be what it is, but it do.

by TheOrangeCone on Nov 16, 2011 11:38 PM EST reply actions

I recorded the odds of every game every day during the season. The days I missed, I was able to find a site that has all the old odds listed. I used the Vegas odds to compare my simulator against to see how accurate it was. The vig would’ve wiped out any ML profit, but it did pretty good on the run totals of all things. There were certain teams that it did better at predicting than others. May just be a fluke or could be something about the type of starting pitchers that team has??
Thanks for the comment.
vr, Xei

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Nov 17, 2011 12:16 AM EST up reply actions

More so than that, they were the underdogs in all of two home games all year. Granted, they lost both games, but that’s still sick.

by RaptorLC on Nov 17, 2011 4:42 AM EST up reply actions

NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS!

;-)

"I wouldn’t run if there was a fire. I wouldn’t run anywhere. I hate running." - O. Munn

by doubleh on Nov 17, 2011 10:56 AM EST reply actions

Interesting…Basically shows you the Phillies were severally overbet. I almost want to bet against the Phillies every game next year.

by BrandonB on Nov 17, 2011 1:49 PM EST reply actions

as it turned out

they were underbet vs the empirical results. They won more games than the bettors expected them to. By quite a bit.

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Nov 17, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions

What’s interesting to me is the distribution of each of the Phillies’ starters along this spectrum. According to this chart, Roy Halladay did not pitch a single game in which the opposing team was favored to win (the closest he came to being the underdog was an exactly even-money game he pitched against the inimitable Josh Johnson). Same for Cliff Lee.

But of the games the Phillies were underdogs in, 5 of them (nearly a third) were pitched by Roy Oswalt, 2 more than Vance Worley, who made just 2 fewer starts than Oswalt did, and 1 more than Kyle Kendrick (though in 8 more starts than KK). In percentages, Oswalt was the underdog in 23% of his starts, Worley in 14%, and Kendrick in 27%.

Assuming that the distribution of opposing pitchers is essentially random, this says to things to me: Vegas was pretty damn high on the Phillies staff in general (if our 7th starter was favored to win 73% of his starts), and they did not regard Oswalt well at all, given the Kendrick baseline.

I guess what that means is that they were also fairly high on the Phillies’ offense. And I know the SSS caveat applies. But interesting takeaways nonetheless.

Moyer for 5th Starter in 2012.

by Missing Jamie Moyer on Nov 19, 2011 12:14 PM EST reply actions