Chooch -- BABIP and future expectations

by schmenkman on Feb 17, 2011 10:57 PM EST

When we talk aboiut Carlos Ruiz and what we might expect from him in 2011, the subject of his BABIP inevitably comes up: it was a career high .335 last year, after being only .262 through 2009.

But for a couple of reasons it seems that 2010 may not have been the aberration we tend to think it was:
1) he's had the higher BABIP for 1/3 of his major league plate appearances
2) when you include his AAA stats, since he reached that level he's had more PA's at the higher BABIP than the lower one.

Period	PA's	BABIP
AAA	830	.326
2006- mid'09	1136	.256
mid'09-2010	541	.334

However maybe we should expect AAA BABIP to be higher. And he did just turn 32, after all, which may mean his BABIP is more likely to go down than up, even if he wasn't coming off a career high.

The above split again, this time with his rate stats...

Period	PA's	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP
AAA	830	.301	.372	.478	.850	.326
2006- mid'09	1136	.238	.328	.360	.688	.256
mid'09-2010	541	.308	.405	.475	.880	.334

One other note, about Chooch and his spot in the batting order. His excellent .400 OBP last year is often attributed in large part to batting 8th and therefore being pitched around. What gets overlooked however is that he batted 7th about half the time in 2010, and he hit much better in that spot:

Spot	PA's	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP
7th	209	.337	.407	.524	.931	.354
8th	211	.263	.398	.351	.749	.321
other	13
Overall	433	.302	.400	.447	.847	.335

I think there's an argument to be made for batting Ruiz 7th and Brown 8th early in the season, keeping pressure low on Brown as he gains confidence, while also allowing him to work on his plate discipline.

Further analysis for anyone who's so inclined:
- how much of a drop off in BABIP should we expect from AAA to the majors?
- how much of a drop off is there typically as a player heads into his mid-30s?
- did Ruiz face better-quality pitches hitting 7th than in the 8 slot?

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Comments

how much of a drop off is there typically as a player heads into his mid-30s

I would actually be more specific and replace “player” with catcher just because they get much more wear and tear.

by j reed on Feb 18, 2011 1:18 AM EST reply actions

True, but Ruiz also didn’t become a catcher until after signing his pro contract at age 19. He’s got a little less wear and tear than other catchers his age. It’s probably not that significant, but I’d consider looking at the drop-off for catchers in their early 30s as a comparison, rather than mid 30s.

Bob.

by The Dark on Feb 20, 2011 9:51 PM EST up reply actions

Just thinking out loud

Also I was wondering, because sample size issues with BABIP, that instead of just looking at his BABIP for a 1/3 of the season if you used a weekly rolling average for that interval of time. That way you might see how he was trending week to week. Or maybe take that rolling average further and see how it correlates with his rate stats.

by j reed on Feb 18, 2011 1:28 AM EST reply actions

BABIP has to regress, right?

Chooch’s BABIP on GB was .266, amazing for a slow, right handed bat. For comparison’s sake, Victorino’s BABIP was .247 on GBs.

by Mace Chutney on Feb 23, 2011 9:45 AM EST reply actions

I think you’re right, it will, the question I guess is how much (and wasn’t it .276?). I don’t think we have the data for this, but I wonder what his GB BABIP was in his 830 PA’s in AAA.

Don’t get me wrong, Ruiz’s hitting will be worse this year than last, I’m just not so sure the drop-off is going to be as severe as some others do.

by schmenkman on Feb 23, 2011 10:06 AM EST up reply actions

For whatever it’s worth, Charlie was quoted as saying he could hit a lot more homers this year. Maybe a BABIP decrease can be partly offset by a BABOOP increase. Ruiz did have more power in the minors than he’s showed so far in the majors, so who knows.

by taco pal on Feb 23, 2011 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

I don’t think Chooch is as slow as a lot of people say he is. People tend to just assume he’s slow just because he’s a stocky catcher, but I think he’s actually somewhere in the middle of the pack.

by taco pal on Feb 23, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions