Phillies -- Spring Training BABIPs

by schmenkman on Mar 18, 2011 1:43 AM EDT

As taco pal reviewed recently, there are a number of position players on the bubble, fighting for remaining roster spots.

Many of these players, as well as some, like Gload, Valdez, and Schneider who are considered locks to make the team, are having great Springs. However some of this success is due to unusually high BABIPs, and highlights the risk of basing Opening Day roster decisions in large part on the 40-80 PAs a player might get in Spring Training.

In the table below, adj OPS is what each player's Spring OPS would be if we added or subtracted enough singles to bring their Spring BABIP in line with their career number.

Roster Contenders

Of the "bubble" players, John Mayberry Jr. and Josh Barfield both have an OPS over 1.000. However one of these two appears to be more lucky than hot.
- John Mayberry's BABIP is .303. This is not far from the .278 he's seen in limited MLB time, which is actually about what might be expected based on his .307 BABIP in AAA.
- However Josh Barfield's impressive OPS of 1.012 is due almost entirely to a .500 BABIP. Taking away enough singles to reduce his BABIP to his .307 career number would reduce his OPS to .713, not far from his career OPS of .671.
- In addition, Delwyn Young, Michael Martinez, and Pete Orr have all been helped somewhat by above-average BABIPs.

Others

- Rollins and Ruiz are having a tough time even when accounting for differences in BABIP
- Howard, Francisco, and Schneider on the other hand are doing well, and would also be doing well with their usual BABIP.
- Victorino (.922 OPS) and Polanco (.466) are having very different Springs, but both would be at typical levels if their BABIP also was.
- Gload and Valdez have both been helped by high BABIPs.

(data table after the jump)

data through Wed. 3/16

	Career		Spring 2011
	OPS	BABIP	PA	OPS	BABIP	adj OPS
J Rollins	.764	.290	46	.562	.270	.595
B Francisco	.775	.296	42	1.165	.379	1.044
S Victorino	.770	.301	45	.922	.394	.773
P Polanco	.758	.312	40	.466	.189	.702
R Howard	.944	.328	41	1.036	.261	1.117
R Ibanez	.823	.306	38	.924	.333	.880
C Ruiz	.749	.280	24	.440	.188	.572

R Gload	.742	.303	36	1.102	.412	.894
W Valdez	.615	.273	37	1.150	.483	.801
B Schneider	.698	.277	25	1.019	.250	1.057

D Young	.709	.324	48	.794	.406	.678
J Mayberry	.810	.278	47	1.119	.303	1.082
M Martinez		.280	36	.750	.357	.630
P Orr	.623	.314	28	.889	.364	.808
J Barfield	.671	.307	29	1.012	.500	.713

Martinez has no MLB experience, so his MLB BABIP is estimated based on his career MiLB BABIP of .299

The 3x3 grid below shows whether they've been lucky/unlucky (i.e. Spring BABIP compared to career BABIP), and hot/cold (i.e. adjusted OPS compared to career OPS):

	Cold		Hot
Lucky		Barfield Victorino Young Martinez	Valdez Gload Francisco Orr
	Rollins	Ibanez	Mayberry Schneider
Unlucky	Ruiz	Polanco	Howard

I haven't seen hitters categorized this way, and maybe for good reason. Does this make sense? Fire away.

Tweet Comment 65 comments | 2 recs |

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Comments

Great work! Very interesting.

by dannijd on Mar 18, 2011 7:21 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

I've never seen it either

But definitely like it. I especially love Howard’s numbers. Great work

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by Chris Haines on Mar 18, 2011 8:42 AM EDT reply actions

Amen- Howard is really mashing this Spring- I hope he can carry it into the season- the team could really use it!

by dannijd on Mar 18, 2011 10:15 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

This is very useful. Thanks for doing the legwork.

Hot streaks are misleading; overall BABIP tells us a lot, but not everything. Is the player getting lucky, or hitting more line drives (in which case, the line drive % would likely regress as well, etc)?

by yolacrary on Mar 18, 2011 8:47 AM EDT reply actions

So basically what this says is that our internal replacements for Utley are not that good. TEAR.

by Nikk.m on Mar 18, 2011 9:55 AM EDT reply actions

Spring training phantasies aside it was nothing we did not already know.

by dannijd on Mar 18, 2011 10:14 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Barfield put up a .740 ops his rookie season and was a decent prospect. He’s still young, so there is reason to phantasize about him. The .500 babip is kind of a downer

by Nikk.m on Mar 18, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

I am happy with Mayberry however, hopefully he’ll be our lefty masher this year.

by Nikk.m on Mar 18, 2011 9:56 AM EDT reply actions

I'll settle

for ANYONE in the lineu being a lefty masher. Anyone.

by phil-er-up on Mar 18, 2011 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions

schmenkman

I like. It puts the Utley injury into perspective. What I have maintained all along is that:

Phils – Utley < Phils – Werth, that is, the loss of Utley’s bat will be far more imapctful this season than the loss of Werth’s.

by phil-er-up on Mar 18, 2011 10:11 AM EDT reply actions

Makes perfect sense — good hitters are much easier to find for RF than at second.

by schmenkman on Mar 18, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions

BTW, Luis Castillo is now available for the $400k minimum. Not interested, but I had forgotten how fast he used to be. Averaged 48 steals per year in 1999-2002, including 62 in 2000.

by schmenkman on Mar 18, 2011 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions

If Bowa or Wade were still in charge of this team, he’d be a Phillie yesterday.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Mar 18, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

My first instinct is “no thanks”, but as bad as he is, is he better than the current roster choices?

by dannijd on Mar 18, 2011 11:57 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

No.

by taco pal on Mar 18, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Ruiz

I wonder how much of Ruiz being cold comes from a paucity of At Bats- even before missing time for the birth of his son, he was playing less than the rest of the starters, so he could still be getting his sea legs so to speak.

by dannijd on Mar 18, 2011 10:18 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

Didnt know there was a new little chooch in the world. The chooch bloodline lives on!

by Nikk.m on Mar 18, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Their 2nd, actually, joining 8-year old Carlos Jr. The baby arrived 9 months to day after Halladay’s perfecto.

by schmenkman on Mar 18, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Not to nitpick, but he’s not “their” second, 8 year old Carlos is a brother from another mother.

New baby’s name is also Carlos. Zoowithroy has an adorable picture of him:

http://www.zoowithroy.com/2011/03/chooch-handles-midnight-baby-carlos-iii.html

Training for the Phillies 5K Run on March 26th. Hoping I don't embarrass myself :-)

5K training blog: In play, run(s)

by LeepinLizardz on Mar 18, 2011 10:55 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Jroll got himself a twitter account

http://twitter.com/jimmyrollins11

by Nikk.m on Mar 18, 2011 12:07 PM EDT reply actions

Has anyone confirmed it’s the real deal?

by Senor Octubre on Mar 18, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions

it was in Murphy’s blog in philly.com

by Nikk.m on Mar 18, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Franske

Saw somewhere that he signed an extension to stay with the team as the radio voice until 2016. Whew!

Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.

by doubleh on Mar 18, 2011 12:17 PM EDT reply actions

Extensions for everybody!

by taco pal on Mar 18, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

You can’t have just one.

Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.

by doubleh on Mar 18, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Excellent. Best radio voice in baseball, in my opinion.

by Phrozen on Mar 18, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Dave Cameron thinks the Phils should sign Castillo.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/should-the-phillies-sign-luis-castillo/

by taco pal on Mar 18, 2011 12:32 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t disagree with his reasoning. I’m not sure it’s necessary, but If he’s brought in to provide some redundancy as an infield utility guy. I’m okay with it. It’s the common, though decidedly unsexy, low risk – low reward signing.

by Cormican on Mar 18, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Cameron didn’t mention that his LD% was at a career low 14.4% last year. It has been jumping around, so it may not be part of a trend. Also, I got the impression that he wasn’t the best clubhouse guy, but maybe that was due to the particular situation on the Mets.

by schmenkman on Mar 18, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Unless there’s something from his Minnesota or Florida days about being a negative clubhouse influence, I’d be inclined to chalk it up to the Mess.

Bob.

by The Dark on Mar 18, 2011 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe he’s changed. The darkness of the organization may have gripped him permanently.

by taco pal on Mar 18, 2011 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions

I just don’t want to give him a major league contract. Too much path-dependence then. A minor league deal would be okay.

by taco pal on Mar 18, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions

agree with that.

by perfectdepth on Mar 18, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Ditto

by Cormican on Mar 18, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Kenny Chesney visited Doc and the Phils today before the game. Ew.

Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.

by doubleh on Mar 18, 2011 2:01 PM EDT reply actions

I had to look him up on Wikipedia.

by Cormican on Mar 18, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Pop musician with acoustic guitar.

Bob.

by The Dark on Mar 18, 2011 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I gather he’s some big Country guy.

by Cormican on Mar 19, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Meh. He was married to Renee Zellweger briefly—they had their marriage annulled due to “fraud”. Whatever that means.

Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.

by doubleh on Mar 19, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Hmm, that leaves a lot to interpretation.

FWIW, I think Renee Zellweger is pretty overrated.

by Cormican on Mar 19, 2011 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions

See, this is that overrated/underrated problem we were discussing a few days ago. When Renee Zellweger first became known, I thought she was underrated. Somewhere along the line, things flipped and she became overrated.

by taco pal on Mar 20, 2011 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah. I’m just not big into the current country music style. Give me the old guys – Johnny Cash, Waylon Jennings, Charlie Daniels (who I actually did see in concert last week). They had a totally different style and theme to their music. The current stuff is often just pop lyrics and music with different instrumentation.

Bob.

by The Dark on Mar 19, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I love both, and while the modern stuff dominates the iPod, there is still room for Willie Nelson, Charlie Daniels, Hank William Jr., and a few other old dogs.

Chesney’s music, particularly his more recet stuff is what I put on when I am feeling down- it makes me feel better most of the time.

by dannijd on Mar 19, 2011 9:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

So you must spend, what, 95% of your waking hours listening to Kenny Chesney?

That’s a pretty miserable existence. I think I’d rather just feel down. Or be dead.

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Mar 19, 2011 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions

No… I have actually been becoming much more positive… Some days the depression wins, but most days I do pretty good.

by dannijd on Mar 20, 2011 10:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I don’t begrudge others what they listen to, but I have never “gotten” Country in any way shape or form. I dig some Johnny Cash, but he’s pretty atypical as he kind of talks over his music, as opposed to, well, that style of singing in Country.

by Cormican on Mar 19, 2011 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes. Another country-hater here, but Johnny Cash is awesome.

by taco pal on Mar 20, 2011 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions

The one drawback to living in the South is there is a lot of Country here.

by Cormican on Mar 21, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

The one?

by phatj on Mar 21, 2011 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, that and the heavy religious stuff. But I love the South. Great weather, not as congested, most of the people here are from the north anyway.

by Cormican on Mar 21, 2011 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I love him!!!! I am going to see him in June!

by dannijd on Mar 19, 2011 12:43 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I love the chart. I think that’s a really nice and simple way to quickly sum up a team’s offensive production and what could be expected of them going forward.

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Mar 18, 2011 2:27 PM EDT reply actions

I would certainly appreciate something like this during the season too.

by philsandthrills on Mar 18, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I like it too, and I plan to automate it, so feel free to remind me if I forget to post it.

by schmenkman on Mar 18, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks, and will do.

by philsandthrills on Mar 18, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

would it be possible to factor in the different batted ball types? (does that seem useful to you? it seems like it would be helpful to know whether guys are hitting the ball hard, etc.)

by yolacrary on Mar 18, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Definitely useful, I just can’t automate it as much as the basic BABIP data. It will require some effort to get that out of FG each time.

by schmenkman on Mar 18, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions

schmenk the automator

by taco pal on Mar 18, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

autoschmenkmaton

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Mar 18, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice pickup of Esmil Rogers.
I was really hoping he’d sneak by until I found a spot to put him.

by philsandthrills on Mar 18, 2011 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions

This would be a cool thing to have posted permanently on one of the sidebars of the blog, if that would be doable.

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Mar 18, 2011 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions

this is the hitter's Johari Window

by Wet Luzinski on Mar 18, 2011 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Johari

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Mar 18, 2011 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Believe it or not, I’m mostly serious. The metaphor kind of works. I’d love schmenkman to do some monthly updates to see how players progress with this kind of look at BA performance.

by Wet Luzinski on Mar 21, 2011 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions