Bang the Dom Slowly: Domonic Brown's Baseball Obituary
The baseball world lost one of its brightest young stars yesterday in Clearwater, Florida, as Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown suddenly became completely unable to play baseball. He was 23.
Team medical officials were baffled, and insisted there was no medical reason for Brown's newfound inability to field, hit, or throw the ball.
"The progression of what happened here was staggering," team physician Michael Ciccotti said. "We're currently looking at video of Dom in winter ball, because all the tests we could run - including a full body-scan, every kind of blood panel we could do, and full psychological evaluations all came up negative."
Ciccotti added that team medical officials were unable to make a prognosis on Brown's remaining gross and fine motor skills, although recent video suggested that he was still able to run and, at times, play catch. But he noted that there was no guarantee that even these skills would be intact by the end of March. "We've unfortunately gone past the point of concern and are in active mourning over his loss."
Brown was 0 for 12 with 8 strikeouts after the team's first four spring training games before suffering his ultimate and untimely fate.
Brown had been in line to assume recently departed free agent Jayson Werth's spot in right field prior to his demise. Werth signed a lucrative multiyear deal with the Washington Nationals this past offseason, and most Phillies fans expected, as did the Phillies, that one of 2010's top prospects would slide easily into the role. Phillies' GM Ruben Amaro Jr. tried to temper the growing enthusiasm over the organization's top prospect, suggesting during the offseason that Brown might have been platooned with other outfielders such as Ben Francisco or John Mayberry, Jr., if not sent down to AAA Lehigh Valley to begin the season.
With Brown's departure, however, all of those plans are gone, unsettling a clubhouse that most sentient baseball observers have the inside edge on winning every possible baseball game that will be played in 2011.
"We work very hard on developing talent throughout the roster," Amaro said. "No doubt Dom's a loss. But we'll get over it. We're a resilient bunch, and we have every confidence that with Ben and John in the outfield we won't miss a beat."
Recent scouting reports noted that Brown had, in fact, been attempting to throw the ball with his foot, and the wrong one, at that. In addition to Brown, the Phillies have been rocked by an epidemic of baseball mortality stretching back to their 2010 season, when legendary pitchers Jamie Moyer and Hall of Famer Robin Roberts suffered from various forms of the malady.
Those losses pale, however, to Sunday's announcement that Chase Utley had also succumbed to a case of mortality that began as a knee injury prior to overwhelming his immortal baseball soul.
Brown's premature and inexplicable slide were reminiscent of other baffling cases of talent drop-offs, most notably the Cardinals' Rick Ankiel or the Dodgers' Steve Sax. But these cases usually involved discreet skills, such as pitching off a mound or making routine throws, rather than a total and systemic breakdown such as Brown's.
Brown's former teammates were still in stunned denial when informed of the news. "We were just talking about everything last night," said Phillies prospect Jiwan James, also an outfielder and a friend of Brown's. "I was just saying [to him] 2-3 more games and everything will be straight. But that was me talking, not him."
Brown was unable to be reached for comment because the lack of any baseball talent made whatever he had to say inaudible and not at all important.
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I’m liking this meme.
I am not a witch.
by RememberthePhitans on Mar 2, 2011 8:33 PM EST up reply actions
First Chase, then Dom. Who is next Base Ba’al? Why do you torture us so??!
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
Voodoo?
I am not one to be superstitious or believe in outlandish explanations not based on fact but I think there is only one logical explanation. He is under some sort of curse because of Voodoo that Jayson Werth paid for.
you were waiting for that, weren’t you?
by Boundforbeach on Mar 2, 2011 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
Foot throwin'...and so young.
He kept trying this, but with a baseball. Maybe he got his Ruizes mixed up. NSFYIAE (Not Safe For Your Inner Athlete’s Ego) but is SFW
OT (speaking of which could we get an OT page?)
Alright so now to get the Pitch F/X feature on Gameday you have to buy the Gameday Audio. Fargin Bastridges!
My guess (hope?) was that the data was missing just because they don’t have all the fancy-pants technology at the A-ball fields in Florida. But if they’re making it available to the paying customers, I guess that’s wrong.
Good point about the fancy pants tech. Forgot about those silly camera thingys. That prolly ’splains it.
No pitch data on AtBat, either, other than location for pitches that wind up wild or in play. I miss pitch fx!
by dannijd on Mar 2, 2011 8:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I read it about 8 times before I saw what it really said.
I am not a witch.
by RememberthePhitans on Mar 2, 2011 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
If you gathered an all-star team of the dumbest posters from every Phillies blog, and there are some dumb ones as we all know, they would still be hard-pressed to outdo the folks over there.
What about Pinstripe Alley?
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
Oooh. I’d like to see that blog fight. Battle of wits indeed.
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
Which makes what comes below this child abuse?
by SportingFanaticism on Mar 3, 2011 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
My favorite part
it looks like we have a good chance as long we as we can score like 2 or 3 runs a game.
Last name Ever
First name Greatest
’Cuz it goes without saying that their pitching staff is throwing up donuts every frame.
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
Yes, because if you ask any GM in the game, they would take Jair Jurrjens over Blaton 100% of the time.
One of the more ridiculous things I’ve ever read on this (or their, I forget which) site, and that’s saying something.
by FearTheTurtIe on Mar 2, 2011 7:47 PM EST up reply actions
The only way I’d take Jurrjens is if I wanted a better pitcher at a cheaper price. I mean, c’mon, last three years (including a injury-plagued 2010), Jurrjens is worth nearly +1 WAR/season. Blanton wasn’t healthy throughout last season, either, but there’s not much evidence to support Blanton over Jurrjens in the past three years.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
JJ: 1.97 K/BB career
JB: 2.32 K/BB career
MLB average K/BB is about 2.0.
The Braves have done well with JJ to date, but it seems as though he has outperformed his peripherals:
2008 – 10 xFIP:
JJ: 3.96; 4.34; 4.47
JB: 4.69; 4.07; 4.06
Blanton is probably a marginally better pitcher. JJ was hurt last year, but so was Heavy B – he injured his panniculus and came back from IR perhaps a bit early and Manuel used him in a very frustrating way for the first couple of months that he was back. As noted, JJ was injured, too, but finished reasonably well, if I recall correctly.
Blanton is worth his WAR. Jurrjens, per fangraphs, was a big WAR winner for ATL over his first three years. Jurrjens is a good example of a decent young, cost-controlled pitcher. Blanton is not awful, and compares favorably to Jurrjens. I don’t think anyone here is going to say that one particularly outshines the other by any dramatic amount.
The reality of MLB is that the Phillies can afford to hire Blanton, even if he may not be the cheapest way to help get to 95 wins. He is a nice piece to have, a valuable one, and one they Phillies should not be in a hurry to dump for nothing just to unload salary. Since the Phillies are essentially sold out for the year already, they don’t need to dump Joe.
I think a healthy Blanton may surprise some people this year, especially if people don’t realize that he was probably rushed back last spring, hurting his numbers. And used for too long during the starts in his first couple of months back from IR.
I am not a witch.
by RememberthePhitans on Mar 2, 2011 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
JJ didn't finish the season...
3 DL stints throughout the year. One stint was back-to-back, I’m not even sure they activated him because he hurt himself warming up prior to the game in which he was scheduled to return. He started the year hurt and wasn’t really right all year long.
If you want to cherry-pick stats, that’s fine. It’s quite obvious why you chose xFIP over FIP in this case. And it’s nothing egregious, simply a better supporting stat for your position. However, with both pitchers posting fairly similar GB%, the fact that Blanton gives up home runs at a considerably higher rate is a bit disconcerting.
Now, if a pitcher can or cannot control whether the ball leaves the park is certainly another debate. However, when Blanton averages twice the amount of home runs given up per season than Jurrjens, one could easily surmise that there’s more there than just some static.
While Jurrjens gives up about one more walk than Blanton per nine (they’ve averaged the same K/9 over the past three seasons),Blanton’s also given up one more hit per nine. Now, that can be skewed a bit by defense, but we’re looking at a three-year sample size, and you can expect the luck to even out somewhat over that period of time.
In the end, we have plenty of evidence to suggest (but not conclude…that’s why there’s a debate…we’ll both leave believing what we want) that while Blanton has better control, he’s also more hittable.
Other things in Jurrjens’ favor include WHIP (as I more or less discussed just above), ERA+, and the FIP mentioned shortly at the beginning.
It’s not cut and dry either way, but there’s plenty of reason to suggest that Jurrjens has far more going for him than Blanton does than simply looking at age and cost-control.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Choosing xFIP over FIP isn’t cherry-picking. It’s a stronger predictor across all pitchers, because it controls for HR/FB rate.
This assumes...
That HR/FB rate should be controlled, which is certainly debatable.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
And it does improve the stat’s predictiveness. As every f**king person who has even a basic grasp of the sabermetric literature knows, unless they are Braves fans who dishonestly want to fudge the stats for the benefit of the pitchers on their own team.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-well-can-we-predict-era/
I’ve never used tRA much, but it certainly dislikes Blanton in comparison with most other metrics.
by philsandthrills on Mar 2, 2011 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
Fangraphs lists it under batted ball data.
tERA and tRA are the same thing, correct?
by philsandthrills on Mar 2, 2011 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
Ah, I see. Yeah I rarely look at that stat either, to the point where I’d pretty much forgotten about it. Interestingly, Blanton’s career xFIP and tERA are pretty close together. The xFIP’s been much better recently, but it was the reverse earlier in his career. It all pretty much cancels out over the long run.
Wow, tERA loves it some Cliff Lee.
Last three years: 2.96, 3.65, 2.65
by philsandthrills on Mar 2, 2011 11:32 PM EST up reply actions
random question...
Is there a stat that measures comprehensive situational hitting that includes risp and moving the runner over with game situations that are waited based on importance in outcome of the game…etc?
"Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support, not illumination." - Vin Scully
Maybe, but that stat would be mostly useless because situational hitting is almost always either (1) luck or (2) overrated.
I agree numbers wise, but not in a player’s ability in the so called “clutch”…which I know is kind of a dirty word in stat speak. Let me clarify what I am looking for…take a players overall numbers and compare them to his numbers only in situations where his team can take the lead or tie the game etc. The numbers on their face wouldn’t have much relevance unless there was a massive difference or trend.
"Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support, not illumination." - Vin Scully
This might not answer your question specifically, but there have been studies about “clutch” by reputable outlets, though to be honest, I’m only really aware of them from a cursory level. A rare free article from Baseball Prospectus seems to open up the rabbit hole from there.
Ever hear of WPA or WPA/LI?
WPA is Win Probability Added, which compares the game state (inning, score differential, outs, and bases occupied) before and after each plate appearance to a table which lists the win probability (also called win expectancy) for each game state based on many years of compiled baseball history, and determines the difference.
Here’s a table listing win expectancy: http://www.tangotiger.net/welist.html.
So, if Ryan Howard comes up against Brian Wilson (for instance) in the bottom of the 9th, with two on and two out, down by a run, the Phillies win probability is .613 (that’s right, they have a better than 50% shot to win there). A home run raises that to 1.000, obviously; striking out drops it to 0.000. So, the HR would be .387 WPA, the K would be -.613 WPA.
WPA/LI attempts to compare WPA to what’s called Leveraged Index, which is a measure (based on Win Probability) of how clutch the situation is. I think it measures the difference between the largest and smallest possible WPs after the PA is complete, or something like that (if I’m right, the LI in the hypothetical Howard example would be 1.000, which is the highest possible LI). The earlier the inning, and the wider the score differential the lower the LI will be.
I was thinking about this more when I was away from my computer and realized I had it wrong – if Leverage Index were defined the way I suggested, dividing WPA by LI would pretty much give the opposite of what I’m talking about, because while LI would increase from 0 to 1 according to the clutchiness of the situation, dividing by it would make a player who hit well in clutch situations look worse than one who didn’t.
FanGraphs is suprisingly unhelpful on the matter:
LI (leverage index): A measure of how important a particular situation is in a baseball game depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base, created by Tom Tango.
Baselines: The average LI is 1 and is considered a neutral situation. 10% of all real game situations have a LI greater than 2, while 60% have a LI less than 1.
It doesn’t say how it’s actually calculated.
You can check splits for those situations usually, but beyond defensive switches and things of that sort, there’s no particular reason behind any variance.
by philsandthrills on Mar 2, 2011 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
The HR/FB average is about 10% or so, and was 9.5% last year.
JJ ended up with a HR/FB of 8.8% in 2010.
It was 6.1% in 2009.
And 7.1% in 2008.
Joe, on the other hand, has had his last three years near or above the league average: 9.4%, 13.0%, and 12.2%. It was the exact opposite for his years in Oakland: 6.8%, 6.5%, and 9.6% in 05-07.
These numbers bounce around, but there is no strong indication that Joe is particularly prone to giving up HR’s and JJ is not. Thus, xFIP is certainly preferable to FIP, in this case(as in nearly all cases.)
by philsandthrills on Mar 2, 2011 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
How many consecutive years below the league average HR/FB rate is necessary to make such a conclusion??
Maybe it’s my meager knowledge being displayed here, but three years below the mark by a fairly significant measure should be at least a decent indicator (though not conclusive).
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
There are more than a few knowledgeable commentators who would argue that no number of years is sufficient to rule out that luck is driving the boat. There are many who argue that Matt Cain hasn’t proven a HR/FB ability yet, and he’s been in the league a hell of a lot longer than Jurrjens. I might not go quite that far myself, but certainly 550.1 IP is nothing to get excited about, unless you’re just biased.
Certainly a sample size of more than 500IP or so. Again, controlling HR’s has been studied in great detail, and to believe that JJ is one of the few with the ability to limit HR’s requires much more proof than a few short years of pitching a little below league average.
Matt Cain, for example, had averaged 7.0% for 6 years, and many still doubt that he truly has an actual skill in preventing HR’s.
by philsandthrills on Mar 2, 2011 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
This is all interesting stuff, by the way...
Thanks for the Cliff’s Notes version of xFIP and HR/FB rates.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I’m sure it’s purely a coincidence that everyone who follows the sabermetric literature knows that xFIP is generally superior to FIP, except for the fans of the team that currently has two starting pitchers with unusually low career HR/FB rates.
It’s possible that some guys have an ability to suppress their HR/FB rates over time. Fangraphs did a study of this recently, which we discussed a little bit on this blog. But the evidence strongly suggests that there should be a heavy presumption against it and Jurrjens simply hasn’t pitched long enough in the majors to overcome that presumption.
For reference, their respective SIERA’s the past 3 years
JJ: 4.16, 4.38, 4.38
JB: 4.85, 3.92, 4.01
Overall, Joe’s been the better pitcher according to SIERA, though just slightly.
Some metrics favor Joe, some favor JJ. xFIP and SIERA are two of the better predictive statistics, however, so that certainly leads me to the conclusion that going forward, Joe is probably the better option.
At the very least, admit that it’s not a 100% decision for any GM.
by philsandthrills on Mar 2, 2011 10:45 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah they’ve basically been on the same level for the past few years. As for future predictions, on one hand Blanton is older than Jurrjens, so you might normally think Jurrjens has more room to improve. On the other hand, Blanton has actually been improving over the past couple of seasons, while Jurrjens has not been. Also, the fact that Jurrjens has been somewhat more injured than Blanton of late is not a point in Jurrjens’ favor, as if we could simply assume that Jurrjens won’t get injured again. To the contrary, it is a point that goes to Jurrjens’ detriment. Health is partly a skill, and Jurrjens has failed to prove that he has that skill. On balance, and going purely by their on-field abilities (i.e. setting aside the vagaries of their contract situations under the CBA), I would rather have Blanton.
Ah, thanks RtP. I was in the middle of writing that (and not thus not studying for my midterms) but you beat me to it. Also, my remark wasn’t meant to assert that Blanton is much better than Jurrjens, but that the two are remarkably equal. It was also meant to illustrate the ridiculousness of that comment, mainly the “ask any GM in the game” part.
by FearTheTurtIe on Mar 2, 2011 9:48 PM EST up reply actions
That’s ok.
Also, just in case this was buried, the favorite bit of mine above is probably this:
Since the Phillies are essentially sold out for the year already, they don’t need to dump Joe.
Q: How can you tell the Braves’ fanbase from that of the Phillies?
A: Because the Phillies have a fansbase, silly!
The bandwagon is big enough for everyone. And it will roll from Atlanta to the sea again this year.
I am not a witch.
by RememberthePhitans on Mar 2, 2011 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
If the two are so remarkably equal...
It’s not too far a stretch to suggest 100% of the GMs would select the younger, cheaper pitcher. I’ve no evidence to back that up, but logic would probably agree with me.
And FWIW, I don’t think Jurrjens is heads-and-shoulders above Blanton. But if two teams not named the Phillies and the Braves had control of each player, at their current age and salaries, and wanted to swap, which way do you think the throw-in prospects would go??
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Except they’re not “remarkably equal.” They’re similar.
If Blanton is better (I believe he is), then for a team with $$ to spend, he could be a better option than JR Richard Jair Jurrjens.
The Yankees, for example, have been known to extravagantly throw money at certain individuals, far in excess of what they would earn on a strictly fair market. For example, what would you say if I told you, three years ago, that 100% of GMs would not offer AJ Burnett $85M?
I didn’t say they were remarkably similar. FeartheTurtle did. But, given his indicated circumstances, my logic there is sound.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
They have historically been remarkably similar when healthy. But while both of them had injury problems last year, Blanton is clearly the healthier of the two. Blanton’s performance has been trending upward, while Jurrjens’ performance has been trending downwards. It is perfectly reasonable for a GM to prefer Blanton even if the cost issue is taken into consideration. Not all should, but some could.
I don’t necessarily agree with “trending downwards,” as there’s a strong correlation between his injury and his performance, but I certainly agree that the injuries are enough to be wary about moving forward.
If you had to hold up a number of fingers on how many GMs would choose Blanton, given current considerations, would you use one hand, two, or would you need your toes as well?? I’m just looking for an estimate, you don’t have to name names.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I feel the need to quantify by what I meant by “remarkably similar” since it’s apparent I wasn’t completely clear. By remarkably similar, I meant that JB and JJ, while healthy, have so far over their careers been remarkably similar. Now as many have said above, what was lost in in translation via the internet (or perhaps my choice of “are” instead of “have been”) is that most predictive stats indicate that Blanton is trending upwards, whereas JJ is trending downwards (or regressing to the somewhat above average pitcher he is).
Also, just to refute something you said earlier, ERA+ favors Blanton, not Jurrjens, which I think is a rather telling statistic. Because one of the largest discrepancies between the two is HR/FB rates, ERA+ is useful because Blanton’s homepark is a “bandbox” and Jurrjens’ is large (ranked 16 and 22 for park factors in 2010, respectively (as an aside, there better not be a post in response to this arguing that CBP is, in fact, a bandbox)). Personally, using ERA+, along with xFIP and SIERA, I believe that Blanton is the better pitcher and will continue to be, but that’s just me.
Finally, I feel like we’ve had this debate before.
by FearTheTurtIe on Mar 3, 2011 12:19 AM EST up reply actions
No, you're wrong on ERA+.
A high ERA+ is better than a low ERA+. Jurrjens has an ERA+ of 118 for his career, 119 in the past three seasons. Blanton has a career ERA+ of 99, and 92 for the past three seasons.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Yea, you’re right. I had too many tabs open it my browser and was looking at the wrong ones while writing. Whoops.
by FearTheTurtIe on Mar 4, 2011 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
I think a reflection on the Death of Sarcasm might be apropos, even if it is simply contained to the great Atlanta area.
by FearTheTurtIe on Mar 2, 2011 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
oh but you see
They might be comforting themselves with sarcasm and humor, but the dude is completely lost at the plate (0/12, 8Ks). DBrown isn’t making adjustments or tinkering with his swing, he is playing for a spot on the team. We all know that link is a joke, but the fact of the matter is that Philly Phans are beginning to get alittle worried about their Werth replacement.
I laughed pretty hard at the “They might be comforting themselves with sarcasm and humor…” line and then laughed even harder once I saw WC’s post over there. Also, I wonder on what authority he is saying:
but the fact of the matter is that Philly Phans are beginning to get alittle worried about their Werth replacement.
If a random Braves fan says it, it must be fact. That, or he listens to WIP.
by FearTheTurtIe on Mar 2, 2011 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
Or reads the message boards at Philly.com!
by dannijd on Mar 2, 2011 8:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Thanks for the link. I would post but I’m banned. That gives me a sad. It’s almost as bad as being banned from Wheeling WV.
I am not a witch.
by RememberthePhitans on Mar 2, 2011 7:11 PM EST up reply actions
Are you banned from the Bobby Cox wifebeater incident or was that someone else
by FearTheTurtIe on Mar 2, 2011 7:45 PM EST up reply actions
I should quantify. By wife beater incident I mean the “This ref looks like a wife beater.” “He looks nothing like Bobby” incident.
by FearTheTurtIe on Mar 2, 2011 7:48 PM EST up reply actions
This was it. My only regret is that I have but one life to give to my country.
I am not a witch.
by RememberthePhitans on Mar 2, 2011 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
At least one poster there knew it was sarcasm…so all hope is not lost.
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
Grant is a satirical genius.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Way to be CLASSLESS, guys.
I have no fucking comment.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Mar 2, 2011 8:01 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
The best part is the comparison between TGP and Bleacher Report. Looking down the front page here: satire, interview, SABRmusings, poetry. Without commenting on the level of work there, one has to wonder a) what BR stories they’ve been reading and b) what the hell “classy” means to them anyway.
I second this.
The Good Phight: a blog that comforts itself with sarcasm and humor. But seriously, it’s worried about Dom Brown.
Jayson Werth’s hating us is so over. /hipster’d
Training for the Phillies 5K Run on March 26th. Hoping I don't embarrass myself :-)
by LeepinLizardz on Mar 3, 2011 11:32 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Yay guys!
This makes me lol.
Training for the Phillies 5K Run on March 26th. Hoping I don't embarrass myself :-)
by LeepinLizardz on Mar 3, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
Great Job!!!
Wet Luzinski’s
Writing skills- tongue in cheek fun
Make Talking Chop dumb
by dannijd on Mar 2, 2011 6:46 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Again, this meme is money.
I am not a witch.
by RememberthePhitans on Mar 2, 2011 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
Seriously...
I joined after reading the comments torching Francoeur possibly signing here. I still go back and read those from time to time.
I just did, too. I didn’t realize what rare form we were in on that post. And that’s just for the photoshoppery. There’s way much more in that thread.
Granted, it was Francoeur, and not every player would inspire that level of commentary. Still, I do feel it’s kind of indicative of the place that I’m thinking, “oh, yeah, that post” in no particularly special way. Still, that post has to go in the vault for next year. But stick around and join in the group snarkgasms.
So I realize it’s gauche to quote MLBTradeRumors, but pulling from a guilty pleasure, I couldn’t help but relay this paraphrase of a piece of Buster Olney’s recent column:
One talent evaluator says “the athleticism has been taken out” of Domonic Brown’s swing.
Well, that’s it — the joke became real. All of his athleticism…vanished. Stolen! What a senseless loss.
As someone noted, it’s almost difficult to tell if that’s supposed to be a positive or a negative. In all seriousness, it’s irritating enough when sportswriters overhype players in order to potentially prove themselves prescient. It’s really aggravating when they pull the same move in a negative light. I’ve said it before, but poor Brown.
His article, as usual these days, is all over the freaking place. Worry about Dom, don’t worry about Lidge—or worry about Lidge if you want.
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
I love the logic. You see, this one prospect from 1974 blew out his knee and never made it, so that’s a perfect precedent for Dom Brown being a bust even though he’s not injured.
“riding the tsunami of unfulfilled expectation” ugh
by Boundforbeach on Mar 3, 2011 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
Duh. It’s really the best thing for everyone if we use the absolute worst case scenario as our first reaction. Once upon a time I enjoyed Conlin’s work—must be just mailing it in these days and catering more and more to the masses.
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
For real. He introduces the the story of Mike Anderson – about how he suffered from a severe concussion and never was the same again – and then goes on to basically to equate Anderson and Brown by stating that Brown also has big expectations. Why even mention the concussion at all? It had almost no relevance to the story, other than being a reason why the aforementioned prospect crashed and burned – but the article’s not about him anyway. -20 points for poor focus.
by FearTheTurtIe on Mar 3, 2011 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
Even worse, it was that the prospect got beamed in the head. The only comparable element between Mike Anderson and Dom Brown is they are both 22 at that point in Bill’s story.
Also funny for the implication that Joe Savery was ever a truly elite prospect.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
To be fair, Savery did appear in the BA Top 100 one year: he was #90 in 2008. Which is obviously exactly like Brown’s #4 this year.
I’m going to send Conlin the link to Royals Review’s genius piece on the bust rates of BA Top 100 prospects. So that he can realize Prospect #90 is basically Keno, while Prospect #4 is typically BlackJack, in terms of risk.

"Statistics are used much like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support, not illumination." - Vin Scully
by DirtyWaters on Mar 3, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
He doesn't see the facts either!
In the last section of his article he accuses all of the Four Aces of giving up at least a run in their first appearances… Now my brain may not be the best, but I seem to remember Halladay making it through 2 shutout innings, and I know Hamels has an ERA of 0.00 (although he gave up an unearned run)… If he can’t get the basic facts right, why should I concern myself with his opinions?
by dannijd on Mar 3, 2011 4:42 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
the full measure of mental toughness
This triggered some PTSD from previous experience teaching in charter school, where we had “mental toughness” retreats. It involved mostly showing up on time, laughable motivational speakers, chart paper, markers, and was woefully short on waterboarding or Sudoko.
by Wet Luzinski on Mar 4, 2011 12:29 AM EST up reply actions

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