The Good Phight's Second Annual Phillies 2011 Over/Under/Never Events: Time to Play!
via t3.gstatic.com
Lemme proposition you. No, not with those stale "who will win the division/pennant/World Series?/bold prediction" kinds of articles. Let's instead play a game born of contemplating stats, but oh so much more: TGP's Season-long Over/Under Never Events, our annual competition/exhibition of our own snarky brand of "gut feel." Thanks to those of you who chipped in on last night's post soliciting some input -- as you always do, you helped make it funner.
Here's how to play. Enter your guesses in the comments. For each of the in-game events described below, guess if it will happen before (under), after (over), or not at all (never) during the 2011 season). One entry per screen name. Contest will be open until the first Over/Under/Never event comes true, whereupon the comments will be closed.
Tastykake reward (of some kind) for the best prognosticator come season's end. (h/t to Phrozen, who, from his outpost across the continent espied by Rooskies, has graciously already compiled the official scorecard from 2010 and will tally Official 2010 O/E/N Results(TM). At long last, the inauguaral O/U/E champ will be named Monday. But I'm guessing you all knew that already, amirite?
The Official 2011 Over/Under/Never Events after the jump.
via incentive-intelligence.typepad.com
| Event | Over/Under/Never Date | Noteworthy In-Game Event |
| 1 | April 7.5 | Jimmy Rollins' 1000th run (needs 7) |
| 2 | April 14.5 | First Ryan Howard air-mailed throw into left field |
| 3 | April 20.5 | Ryan Howard ties Del Ennis, 2nd all-time Phillies HR leader (needs 6) |
| 4 | April 28.5 | Ryan Howard's first "Golden Sombrero:" 0 for 4+, 4+ K (N.B., if he reaches base in any way other than a dropped third strike, that will not count). |
| 5 | May 1.5 | Wilson Valdez hits into 2+ double-plays in a game |
| 6 | May 3.5 | Jayson Werth homers vs. Phillies |
| 7 | May 4.5 | Jayson Werth HBP thrown by Phillies pitcher |
| 8 | May 5.5 | Charlie Manuel ejected by umpires |
| 9 | May 6.5 | First 3-pitch inning, either batting or pitching |
| 10 | May 13.5 | Game started by someone other than Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Oswalt/Blanton |
| 11 | May 17.5 | Chase Utley returns to the lineup |
| 12 | June 0.5 | Jimmy Rollins’ 100th career triple OR Dom Brown’s first career triple OR Pete Orr’s first triple of the season (a triple triple play!) |
| 13 | June 15.5 | First: Brad Lidge (S) OR (BS) (W) |
| 14 | June 18.5 | Second: Win vs. AL team |
| 15 | June 23.5 | Phillies outfielder throws out a runner at the plate on SAC fly attempt (Must be direct OF to player - likely C - covering home) |
| 16 | June 30.5 | Phillies pitcher throws no-hitter |
| 17 | June 30.5 | First: Multi-HR game by Phillie not named Utley, Howard, or Ibanez |
| 18 | July 8.5 | Walk-off HR from Phillies reserve |
| 19 | July 10.5 | Phillies complete 5-game win streak |
| 20 | July 27.5 | Cody Ross: HBP thrown by a Phillie |
| 21 | July 31.5 | Phillies make a trade for a Proven Veteran Closer™ |
| 22 | August 1.5 | Phillies starting pitcher bats somewhere other than 9th in the starting lineup OR is used as a position player OR hits a home run. |
| 23 | August 16.5 | Phillies player hits 3HRs in a game |
| 24 | September 0.5 | "Now pitching for the Phillies: Scott Mathieson" |
| 25 | September 27.5 | Charlie Manuel ties Harry Wright, second all-time Phillies manager in wins (92nd win - 636 total) |
| Extra Credit! | Season's End | Charlie Manuel ties Gene Mauch, all-time Phillies manager in wins (102nd win - 646 total) |
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Comments
Look at JNes12’s 1st comment. I think that’s what he tried to do.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
1. Over
2. Under
3. Under
4. Over
5. Under
6. Over
7. Never
8. Under
9. Over
10. Over
11. Under
12. Under (you know Pete Orr is gonna do it 1st chance he gets)
13. Over
14. Under
15. Under
16. Never
17. Over
18. Over
19. Under
20. Never
21. Never
22. Under
23. Never
24. Over
25. Under
26. Never
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Oh, we can do them all? Well here are mine then:
1. Over
2. Over
3. Under
4. Over
5. Under
6. Never
7. Over
8. Under
9. Never
10. Under
11. Over
12. Over
13. Over
14. Under
15. Under
16. Never
17. Under (Calling it – Ben Francisco)
18. Under (Gload)
19. Under
20. Never
21. Never
22. Never
23. Never
24. Over
25. Under
Extra Credit: Never
1. J-Roll’s 1000th run – Over
2. First Ry-Ho Airmail Express – Over
3. Ry-Ho ties Del-En in HRs – Under
4. Ry-Ho’s 1st Golden Sombrero – Over
5. Valdez GIDPs twice in one game – Over
6. Jay-Wer HRs against Phils – Over
7. Jay-Wer HBP by Phils – Over
8. Cholly ejected – Under
9. 1st 3-pitch inning – Over
10. Game started by ??? – Over
11. Utley LIVES! – Under
12. Triple Triple Triple – Under
13. Weeblywobbly S or BS-W – Under
14. 2nd W against AL – Under
15. OF assist at Home – Over
16. No-hitter – Under
17. Multi-HR game not by I/U/H – Under
18. Walk-off HR by reserve – Over (NOTE: does this include a reserve when they start a given game, or only as a late-inning replacement?)
19. 5-game win streak – Under
20. Cody Doucheross HBP – UNDERUNDERUNDERUNDER
21. Trade for Veteran Closer – Never
22. SP bats n/9th, HR, or position – Over
23. 3HR game – Never
24. Mathieson – Over
25. Cholly ties Wright – Over
26. Cholly ties Mauch – 2012.
18. Either. So if Valdez or Schneider do this as a starter, it’ll count. They’re rare enough that we can count. But for scoring purposes, reserves are NOT:
Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Polanco, Ibanez, Victorino, Francisco (or Dom Brown, in the event he achieves “everydayitude” later in the season)
If that changes things for those who have already posted, just reply to your own post above.
by Wet Luzinski on Mar 31, 2011 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
1) Over 2)Over 3)under 4)Over 5)under 6)under 7)under 8)under 9)never 10)over 11)under 12)under 13)over 14)under 15)under 16)never 17)under 18)under 19)under 20)never 21)never 22)under 23)under 24)over 25)under EC)never
Baseball: the only sport whose commissioner wants you to think it is still 1960.
by phillies fan in bowie on Mar 31, 2011 11:32 PM EDT reply actions
Picks
1. Over
2. Over
3. Under
4. Over
5. Over
6. Over
7. Under
8. Under
9. Under
10. Over
11. Over
12. Under
13. Over
14. Under
15. Under
16. Never
17. Under
18. Never
19. Under
20. Never
21. Never
22. Under
23. Never
24. Under
25. Under
26. Never
by Eaglesadvocate on Mar 31, 2011 11:47 PM EDT reply actions
In light of postseason wins counting, I’d like to change my Extra Credit to Over
by Eaglesadvocate on Apr 1, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
1. Over
2. Under
3. Over
4. Over
5. Under
6. Over
7. Never
8. Over
9. Under
10. Over
11. Over
12. Under
13. Over
14. Under
15. Never
17. Under
18. Over
19. Under
20. Over
21. Under
22. Never
23. Never
24. Under
25. Under
Extra Credit: Never
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
Pick #16?
Hey doubleh, what is your choice for #16 (Phillies pitcher throws no-hitter)?
by TwistyWristy on Apr 1, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Before I post my answers, a couple of questions for you...
For Number 18, must the reserve have come in as a backup, or does this count any player not a member of the usual starting lineup?
For number 22, does the pitcher have to have started the game, or do they just have to be a member of the rotation?
For the extra credit, does the post season (if they make it) count toward win totals?
by dannijd on Apr 1, 2011 12:00 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
These are guesses.
For No. 18, see WL’s response to my post. Assuming the Hr-hitter is not one of the regular guys, e.g. Schneider, it doesn’t matter if he started or is pinch-hitting or whatever.
For No. 22, I would guess that, based on Oswalt’s appearance last year, it must just be an SP, not necessarily that day’s SP.
For the XC, I would again guess that post-season wins would not count, as they tend not to be counted in general counting stats like wins.
Good questions. Phrozen has it right. For 22, what I’m driving at is another Oswalt / SP appearance in a position role. Similarly, the HR could come in a PH appearance on a game where the SP did not start.
XC includes playoff wins.
Again, if that changes any ballots, reply to your own guess.
Picks
1. Over
2. Over
3. Over
4. Over
5. Over
6. Under
7. Never
8. Under
9. Over
10. Under
11. Under
12. Under
13. Over
14. Over
15. Under
16. Over
17. Under
18. Under
19. Under
20. Never
21. Under
22. Never
23. Never
24. Under
25. Under
26. Never
1. over
2. over
3. over (he tends to be a slow starter)
4. under
5. never
6. over
7. never
8. over
9. over
10. under
11. over
12. over
13. over
14. under
15. under
16. never
17. under
18. under
19. under
20. never
21. never
22. over
23. under
24. under (He’s on the 40-man, unlike Stutes)
25. over (Yes, I predict they get win #92 on the last game of the season or on a later make-up game)
EC. never
A suggestion
WL, have you thought about using Google Docs to keep track of everyone’s picks?
If you like how this looks, sometime this weekend, I’ll:
- Add you as an owner
- Finish adding the dates to the event comments
- Add scripts to auto-calculate right and wrong answers (with color highlighting)
- and start parsing everyone’s picks into the spreadsheet.
wow thanks TW!
This is almost as cool as the original BL wobblehead. Yes, please do this, thanks. And let me know your fave kind of Tastykakes.
Thanks, glad you like it!
I added you to the spreadsheet so you have the ability to edit events as they occur.
Everyone’s picks (currently up to pman18 WanderingMoses) have been added. I’ll go over them again once the first event occurs. The picks listed here hold precedence over the spreadsheet in case of any discrepancies.
Carnac the Magnificent’s picks are computer generated and I’ll finish up the coloring later (have to try to get some work done before the game comes on).
by TwistyWristy on Apr 1, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Shouldn’t everyone saying “never” to the E.C. say “over” instead? Over means he’ll do it next year, which is unquestionable.
by Senor Octubre on Apr 1, 2011 7:52 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
No
For gaming purposes, Never means not by the 2011 Season’s End. But I see your point, which would apply to all milestone propositions. Technically, the game should be called Over/Under/Not This Year.
1: Over
2: Over
3: Under
4: Never
5: Under
6: Over
7: Under (he’ll step into a pitch then claim it was intentional)
8: Over
9: Under
10: Over
11: Under
12: Under
13: Under
14: Under
15: Over
16: Never
17: Over (but I’m going to guess Victorino)
18: Under
19: Under
20: Never
21: Never
22: Over
23: Under
24: Over
25: Under
XC: Over
I thought about guessing all "Over", but here are my well considered picks
1. O, 2. O, 3. O, 4. U, 5. U, 6. O, 7. O, 8. O, 9. U, 10. U, 11. U, 12. O, 13. O, 14. O, 15. U, 16. O, 17. O, 18. O, 19. U, 20. O, 21. O, 22. O, 23. O, 24. O, 25. U, EC: O.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Apr 1, 2011 11:03 AM EDT reply actions
1. Jimmy’s 1000th run- over
2. First Ryan Howard air mailed throw- under
3. Howard ties Ellis- over
4. Howard’s first Golden Sombrero- under
5. Wilson Valdez 2x double plays- over
6. Jayson Werth homers against the Phillies- under
7. Jayson Werth HBP from Phillies pitcher- over
8. Charlie Manuel ejected by umpires- under
9. First 3 Pitch Inning, either batting or pitching- Over
10. Game started by a non-member of the Phillies rotation- under
11. Chase Utley returns to the lineup- under
12. Any branch of the triple triple- over
13. First Brad Lidge (s) or (bs)(w)- over
14. Second win over AL team- under
15. Phillies outfielder throws out a runner at home on a Sac Fly attempt: Under
16. Phillies pitcher throws a no hitter: under (I have this one on good authority)
17. Multi-homerun game by Philly not named Howard, Ibañez or Utley: Over
18. Walk-off homerun by Phillies reserve- Under
19. Phillies complete 5 game win streak- under
20. Cody Ross HBP by Phillie: Never
21. Phillies make a trade for a Proven Veteran Closer™- Never
22. Phillies pitcher bats somewhere other than ninth in a STARTING lineup/ plays a position/ hits a homerun- Never
23. Phillies hitter hits 3 homeruns in one game- Never
24. Now pitching for the Phillies: Scott Mathieson- Under
25. Manuel ties for second on the all time lost of wins by a Phillies manager: Over
Extra Credit: Manuel ties for top of the all time wins list: Never
by dannijd on Apr 1, 2011 11:15 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
picks
1 Over
2 Over
3 Over
4 Over
5 Under
6 Under
7 Over
8 Under
9 Under
10 Under
11 Over
12 Under
13 Under
14 Under
15 Under
16 Over
17 Over
18 Over
19 Under
20 Over
21 Under
22 Under
23 Over
24 Under
25 Under
26 Over
Hope I'm not too late
1. Over
2. Over
3. Under
4. Over
5. Over
6. Never
7. Never
8. Under
9. Under
10. Under
11. Over
12. Over
13. Under
14. Under
15. Under
16. Never
17. Under
18. NEver
19. Under
20. Never
21. Never
22. Never
23. Never
24. Never
25. Over
26. Never
1 Under
2 Over
3 Over
4 Never
5 Never
6 Under
7 Never
8 Under
9 Under
10 Over
11 Over
12 Under
13 Over
14 Over
15 Under
16 Over
17 Over
18 Under
19 Under
20 Under
21 Never
22 Under
23 Under
24 Under
25 Never
over/under/never
1.Over 2.Over 3.Under 4.Over 5.Under
6.Over 7.Never 8.Under 9.Never 10.Over
11.Under 12.Under 13.Under 14.Under 15.Over
16.Never 17.Over 18.Under 19.Under 20.Under
21.Under 22.Under 23.Never 24.Over 25.Under
Extra Credit…Never
Philz4ever
1. N
2. O
3. U
4. N
5. O
6. U
7. N
8. O
9. U
10. N
11. O
12. U
13. N
14. O
15. U
16. N
17. O
18. U
19. N
20. O
21. U
22. N
23. O
24. U
25. N
26. O
DOn’t know if this is still open but here’s my list
1. under
2. under
3. over
4. over
5. under
6. under
7. never
8. under
9. under
10. over
11. over
12. under
13. over
14. under
15. under
16. under
17. over
18. under
19. under
20. never
21. never
22. never
23. over
24. under
25. under
EC. under
"We are the Borg. Resistance is futile."

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