Phillies Prospect Roundup: New Beginnings
With the minor league season only getting underway on Thursday, we don't have a full week's worth of box scores to work with. That said, if you thought a prospect junkie like me was going to wait a week-and-a-half before rolling out the first prospect roundup of the year... well...
I would feel obligated here to make the normal disclaimer about sample sizes, and not reading too much into 4 games' worth of at bats, etc., but you guys are smart enough to know that already, so let's just skip that part.
Without further ado, then, check below the jump for the first prospect roundup of 2011, including updates on a couple of conversion projects, a pair of Reading sluggers who need to have big years, and a 2010 draft pick who looks like a potential sleeper.
Joe Savery, 1B-L, Clearwater: Savery was a good hitter in his college career at Rice -- he hit a combined .356/.444/.550 with 20 HR across three seasons -- but it's asking a lot for a guy who's essentially done nothing but pitch full-time for the past three seasons to grab a bat again. So far, so good, however, as Savery is off to a blistering start (12-for-15 for an early .800/.813/1.133 line), and while small sample size caveats obviously apply, maybe letting the 2007 1st round pick hit is a bit more than a desperation heave. In any case, it's always pretty impressive when you go 2-for-3 in a game (as Savery did Sunday) and see your batting average drop.
Jarred Cosart, RHP, Clearwater: It was a weird 2011 debut for the hard-throwing righthander, as Cosart took a no hitter into the 5th and held the Dunedin Blue Jays to just 2 hits and 0 runs over 6 innings, but he did issue 4 walks and uncork a wild pitch. Still, the 11 ground outs (to 1 fly out) and 2 GIDPs are a sign that Cosart had good stuff, but his command was just a bit off. Early days, but something to monitor going forward; after all, if Trevor May's 2010 can teach us anything, it's that retiring High-A hitters (as opposed to Low-A hitters) requires finer command in addition to good raw stuff.
Jonathan Singleton, LF-L, Clearwater: The club's top position prospect aside from Domonic Brown has yet to knock his first extra base hit of the 2011, but he's 5-for-15 early and has walked 3 times to 5 strikeouts, and 2 of those singles came against a rehabbing Brandon Morrow (an impressive feat for any 19 year old). The Florida State League isn't the friendliest place for power hitters, so the lefty is unlikely to post eye popping slugging numbers in 2011, but so long as the plate discipline stays intact (as it has early on), there shouldn't be any reason for concern.
Vance Worley, RHP, Lehigh Valley: You almost have to feel bad for Worley in the sense that he made it into the organization a few years too late. A club that gave Adam Eaton 19 starts in 2008 -- think about that for a minute -- is suddenly flush with pitching talent, relegating a major league ready back end guy like Worley to another go around in Triple-A. The bespectacled one was as good as he could be in the Pigs' season opener, tossing 6 scoreless frames and allowing just 4 hits and a walk while whiffing 9 and inducing 6 ground outs (and no fly outs).
David Buchanan, RHP, Lakewood: Buchanan intrigued me as the club's 7th round pick in the 2010 draft, as draft reports had the Georgia State Friday starter really honing his command of a legit three pitch arsenal before he went down with a finger injury. He wasn't particularly impressive in the New York-Penn League last summer, posting just a 30:23 K:BB in 62.0 innings pitched, but I thought about tabbing him as a sleeper heading into this year on the hope that a professional offseason regimen would do him some good. His Sunday start for Lakewood -- 7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 4 K -- is a first step in the right direction.
Matt Rizzotti, 1B-L, Reading: 2010's breakout player doesn't really have anything left to prove at Double-A after torching the level to the tune of .361/.452/.635 last year, but a logjam of Quad-A types in Lehigh Valley spurred the organization to send him back to Reading. All Rizzotti can do is hit until he gets handed a bus ticket elsewhere, and to his credit, he's doing just that, roping 4 doubles in his first 17 plate appearances, and showing the same control of the strike zone (2 BB, 1 K) that he did last year.
Jiwan James, OF-S, Clearwater: As Phuture Phillies pointed out on Twitter the other night, James walked in a mere 35 of his 617 plate appearances last year (5.7%), so it's encouraging to see his early season approach in 2011: 3 walks, 1 strikeout. The former hurler may not be off to the same sizzling start as Savery (just 4-for-16 through 4 games), but as a switch hitting center fielder with excellent raw tools, his upside is considerably higher. James has extra base hits as of yet, but after seeing him post a .312 OBP in 2010, the organization will just be happy if he adopts a true leadoff approach.
Michael Stutes, RHP, Lehigh Valley: It's interesting to look back at Stutes' career path: a key cog on the 2006 NCAA champion Oregon State squad, Stutes had a rough senior year, fell to the Phillies in the 11th round of the 2008 draft, dominated Williamsport and Lakewood en route to a 2009 assignment to Reading, struggled a bit in both '09 and '10 (the latter out of the bullpen)... and now, all of a sudden, it seems that something's clicked. He's so far whiffed 7 in 3.1 innings out of the Lehigh Valley pen, and he looks to have passed Scott Mathieson on the organizational depth chart, so that when a bullpen vacancy opens, he'll probably be the first one summoned.
Leandro Castro, OF-R, Clearwater: The Dominican outfielder slipped to #29 on this past offseason's Top 30 list after a so-so offensive year at Lakewood. In the first week of 2011, however, he flashed some of the same power that put him on the prospect radar back in his 2009 stint with Williamsport, clubbing a pair of homers as part of a 7-for-15 week. He's also back to playing right field after ceding that position to Domingo Santana and Anthony Hewitt a year ago -- not an earth-shattering move up the defensive spectrum, to be sure, but one that's certainly helpful for a guy who may not profile as an everyday corner outfielder.
Cody Overbeck, 3B-R, Reading: A couple of things kept Overbeck off my Top 30: he turned 24 in June of last year, didn't make enough contact in Double-A (30.2% K), and while fielding percentage isn't the greatest proxy in the world, a .919 mark in pro ball has me skeptical about his glove at the hot corner. That said, the dude does have raw power, so if he can make enough contact to make that power usable, he's might have a shot as an Eric Hinske four corners reserve type. How he fares in Reading this year will go a long way toward determining whether that's a plausible career path for Overbeck, and a 5-for-15 start with 2 long balls is definitely encouraging.
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They sure did, and he held his own, albeit in an extremely small sample.
It’s useful to remember that Savery is a 25 year old raking against the FSL’s age-appropriate 19-23 year olds, but so far he’s doing about all you can ask. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
I hope they try to teach him to play the left field at some point. I have no idea how fast or slow he is, but he certainly has the arm to play out there.
Yeah, the extremely small sample (48 plate appearances) is why I couched his writeup with “essentially”.
ARL is definitely important, but at the same time, it’s a bit tricky to figure for guys like Savery who are essentially beginning their careers over. He obviously can’t move a level at a time and expect to be taken seriously as a prospect, but unless he’s still OPSing 1.300 in a month, I don’t see a huge reason to rush him to Double-A — he can get there at midseason and not really be behind the curve in any way.
Also, definitely agree with TP on the outfield thing.
He could wind up as a real hitter. His last year at Rice, he had a .970 OPS. Obviously, we shouldn’t expect him to do as well in the pros, but it suggests there is raw ability there.
Bob.
by The Dark on Apr 11, 2011 12:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yup
I think this season he moves slower than his numbers would dictate so he gains more confidence. Also I would keep him at DH/1B all season so he can just concentrate on hitting. I doubt his trade value will be as high as Phils would like so they could protect him in the offseason, then send him to instructs to learn RF (likely at the same time they release Hewitt).
I’ve always been intrigued by Castro. He seems like a guy that’ll fly under the radar until all of a sudden he’s the 4th outfielder in Philly.
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Agree
I could definitely see Castro just moving up a rung at a time. He has enough tools and attitude to be a valuable player but not any great skills. Unfortunately, 4th OF is likely his ceiling and after a few years he will be bouncing around the league.
I still haven’t seen anything anywhere.
by PhillyFriar on Apr 11, 2011 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah it’s been weirdly quiet on the Colvin front all srping.
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by WholeCamels on Apr 11, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
It seems like they haven’t been playing Overbeck at 3B so far this year. I wish they would. What do they have to lose, other than a few AA games? Don’t they want him to improve as much as possible? Or do they want to turn him into Andy Tracy?
Overbeck
Maybe Phils want him to focus on hitting. But I agree, any time a minor league player moves down the defensive spectrum it hurts their value (even more so for non-elite prospects). At this point I would highly doubt Overbeck plays at all for the Phillies and in a best case would get a few ABs as an injury replacement PH elsewhere.
A club that gave Adam Eaton 19 starts in 2008 – think about that for a minute -
This comment would be full of win, except that it was, sadly, full of losses.
by Wet Luzinski on Apr 11, 2011 7:46 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
As I understand it, he’s pretty nimble for a big man. Probably faster than Pat Burrell, which admittedly isn’t saying much.
Burrell might be the world’s slowest physically fit man. It was astonishing how slow he became in his last few years here.
Yadier Molina? Geovanny Soto?
But yeah, Burrell is a slow dude. He can still hit, though. I guess he was Pat the Bat, not Pat the Legs.
Sure would be fun to watch, though. Each man starts from a base and tries to complete a four-bag circuit. Pat from Home, Yadier from 1st, Geovanny from 2nd, and maybe Sabathia or Broxton from 3rd.
Meanwhile, Victorino and Bourn race around the entire OF.
Pat Burrell aka Teddy Roosevelt
"Francisco!...that's fun to say!" - Buddy
by DirtyWaters on Apr 11, 2011 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously!!! Whats with putting Jeff Larish at Lehigh for cryin’ out loud…. He has the same chance of playing for the Philas as Overbeck. Lets develop the kids. Let Rizzotti rake and build up his trade value – dont kill the kids spirit with a re-run at Reading.
And let Savery move to Reading focused on hitting and let him work on LF in advance of next year at Reading or LV. He has proven he can handle the youngsters. He did well (albeit in limited AAA exposure) last year, cmon, Phils.
And, it time to move Mathieson – I wish he could have made it here but they are just killing his spirit. Just get a little something back. Move him, Blanton, Kendrick, prolly Baez. I wanna see Stutes and Worley getting some big league action before we waste them too.
The sentiments contained in the first two paragraphs are essentially reasonable, if poorly expressed, though there’s no reason why all this needs to have happened by week two of the minor league season. The third paragraph, however, is ridiculous.
Well, the third paragraph is partially ridiculous. Sometimes I feel like they should trade Mathieson so he gets a chance. Trading Kendrick and Baez would also be nice (if exceedingly unlikely) and wanting to see Worley and Stutes get chances is reasonable (I wouldn’t trade Blanton to get Worley in the rotation and there’s no need to rush either guy).
I wouldn’t trade any of those guys at this point (well, maybe Mathieson). I certainly would have traded Kendrick or Baez before the year started, but for better or for worse, the year has now begun and you can’t necessarily count on finding replacements. I want to see Worley and Stutes pitch in the majors too, but nobody has an actual need to see them do it RIGHT THIS SECOND as opposed to July or September or next April. If they’re going to pitch in the middle of a season that’s already in progress, they’re going to have to force their way into the picture incontrovertibly. It makes no sense to clear out space for them on the roster for no reason other than to satisfy our curiosity – if they turn out not to be ready, then you’ve hurt your team for this year for no good reason in a decision you can’t reverse and might not even be able to correct.
Plus, we have no idea whether or not a vacancy will open up anyway. You might trade Baez and then find out two days later that somebody else is hurt. Losing Baez might not seem like a big loss, but it’s still a loss if you can’t find anyone better, and if you do it in the middle of the year, it’s very possible that you won’t find anyone better, at least not immediately. Having too many players is a luxury to be taken advantage of, not a problem to be solved.
Agreed but you realize you can also “take advantage of the luxury” by selling high, right? Not only by waiting until a “vacancy opens up”.
This COULD mean you wait until Baez regresses to his recent mean of suckiness or Mathieson starts getting labeled as Quad A or Blanton continues to thow up a 10.45 ERA and kills any value you could extract…(though I admit I would agree to wait until Blanton levels out a bit before doing something).
Under this theory you would never have traded Thome to let Ryan Howard because what if he was only a flash in the pan that half season?
Thank you. First a disclaimer: I save my writing skills for work. Please dont expect perfect prose from me. I didnt realize this was a requirement for this blog (esp. since few others would pass that test) nor for knowing baseball ( For instance, I doubt Charlie Manuel would write on the topic of hitting very well though iots obvious he knows a great deal about the topic). So really, taco pal, save the 8th grade English teaching for your students, ok? Its just a blog.
My point was that people have opined that part of Amaro’s Blanton strategy was likely to wait until the season started and other teams started suffering injuries to their rotations where we could take advantage of our “depth” behind Joe B. (Kendrick, Worley, etc) and get better offers for a decent pitcher. Once he straightens a little bit, we should look to move him but ONLY IF Worley is having a good year. Those injuries are starting (Yankees, etc) so I think its something to keep an eye on, especially if we can add to the farm in areas we are weak (Middle infield, 3b, C).
Also, it is clear to some (see Delco Times’s Hale’s Blog just posted) that Mathieson isnt Dubee’s cup of tea so while others admit he would be in the Majors in another Organization – so stop wasting the “bullets” in that arm, as they say. Get a younger body who can develop as a reliever.
I am NOT a writer – what I am however, is an entreprenuer/trader/investor and am progammed to sell high and buy low and sense my own position in a market. You are better making moves from a position of strength NOT when you are the one in need. We made it through the last few years with a worse #5 than Joe, I think we can survive again, without him.
Does it have to be RIGHT this second? Fair point. No, we’re 7-3. We dont HAVE to do anything. But when the market presents itself you should be ready and then why wait? Thats how the Braves went on a 14 year run. I want a 14 year run (but with some more rings).

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