Some Phillies Links For You, April 13, 2011: Regression, Bullpen Blues, Strategy Fail
by WholeCamels on Apr 13, 2011 8:31 AM EDT
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Why Mayberry over Gload? | The Phillies Zone
Matt Gelb looks into the inexplicable decision to pinch hit for Joe Blanton with John Mayberry instead of Ross Gload with the bases loaded in the seventh last night. And it remains inexplicable.
Ohhh Charlie… - Brotherly Glove
Brotherly Glove takes another thorough look at the Mayberry/Gload decision from last night. Verdict: Whaaa?
Phillies Notebook: Too early for Phillies, Manuel to get caught up in expectations
David Murphy sez the Phillies offense is unlikely to maintain its pace from the first nine games. You know who's been saying that...
Cleveland rotation tops Philadelphia Phillies' Fab Four on charts
I'm taking bets that this will hold up all season.
Werth savors reunion
Clearly untrue. He HATES THE PHILLIES! BOOOOOO!! BOOOO! MONSTER!
Building a Bullpen - Philled In
Kinda bad timing after last night's struggles, but David Hale looks at the future of the Phillies bullpen after the (assumed) departures of Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson.
R-Phils outlast Fisher Cats in 11
Good nights for Matt Rizzotti, Justin DeFratus.
Daytona Cubs 5, Clearwater Threshers 1
The Threshers managed just one hit off Cubs pitching. Jarred Cosart picked up the loss, going five innings, allowing six hits and three earned runs, walking one and striking out three.
This was a pretty bad rendition of a ballpark classic - Casual Fan
Former(?) TheFightins.com blogger Tug Haines is traveling around the country this season, checking out 113 different ballgames, and is documenting his experiences at CasualFan.org. Here's an "awesome" "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" from last night in Daytona.
McFarlane Toys Announces New Phillies Chase Utley Figure
Public Service Announcement: Grown men, it's time to stop buying dolls!
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I figured just by Gload having been in the NL East for the last few years and thus knowing and seeing Livan Hernandez would have been enough to say he was the guy to bat in that spot, rather than the weak-against-the-RH-breaking-ball Mayberry. But I guess this is why I am just a fan commenting on a blog.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
Double checked the Fangraphs play log, and Mayberry’s at bat was the highest index leverage play of the game. It’s just never a good policy to not put your best option in the most crucial spot.
Oh well, no more use in second guessing it, what’s done is done. Just hope that Charlie may have learned some sort of lesson going forward.
I’m just afraid that this is a situation where Charlie “loves” Mayberry - by all accounts a super person — and will rely on him to the team’s detriment. There certainly are appropriate situations for Mayberry — pinch-hitting versus a lefty and/or spelling Ibanez late in a game, for instance — but this just wasn’t one of them.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
This is precisely what I prayed to BaseBa’al about – that Charlie be persuaded away from The Gut™.
That being said, I am just shocked that Gload got ZERO AB’s yesterday. Even in the ninth, he would have been a better option than Martinez.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Apr 13, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Part of me wonders if there wasn’t a keep-it-quiet clubhouse issue (Gload being punished for something or other), or a minor injury he didn’t want to make public.
I hope?
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Apr 13, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
The Gut(tm)
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)
by bandwagonesque on Apr 13, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Well played!
As unfortunately true as it is.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Apr 13, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I suppose the Facebook version would be “It’s Complicated”
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Apr 13, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Mayberry was a bad choice
"Francisco!...that's fun to say!" - Buddy
by DirtyWaters on Apr 13, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
“I liked him on Hernandez,” Manuel said. “I liked him most of all because the wind was blowing out to left field. With the bases loaded and one out, I thought if he gets one up in the air, that’s about the only chance we have of hitting one out of the yard.”
Still makes no sense, Charlie. But I decipher this as meaning “I have an inherent bias for big strong men.”
I understand that Mayberry may be the bigger homerun threat (particularly considering that the wind would be more of a help to a righty), but why go for it there- better to go for the (more likely) base hit, try to score a couple of runs and continue the inning? This decision stinks of bad judgment.
by dannijd on Apr 13, 2011 10:30 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
…
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Apr 13, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Just yuck. That’s awful.
I realize that Charlie has pretty much written his own ticket, but that explanation is just a load of bushwa.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Apr 13, 2011 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Let’s say that Mayberry had a 10% chance to hit a HR there. I would agree, based on the wind, that Mayberry had a better chance to hit a HR than Gload. However, that still leaves the other 90% of the outcomes on a batted ball that Gload would have been the better choice.
"Francisco!...that's fun to say!" - Buddy
by DirtyWaters on Apr 13, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I would have preferred to get a merry-go-round started there. A Granny should the icing rather than the start, although don’t get me wrong, I would have taken the Salami there certainly.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Apr 13, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
It's an outlier
But look at the Mariners game the other night. Down 7-1 in the 9th. 3 runs get walked in, followed by 2 base clearing singles. 8-7 walk off win. The home run is nice, but why go to the casino and waste all your cash on Keno, when you have better odds of winning incrementally by playing blackjack?
Agreed. Although I am a slots player…when I actually go.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Apr 13, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I’ve gotten to be of two minds about Madson’s impending departure. On one hand, Ruben, Charlie, Dubee, & co. are being total a-holes here and that’s pretty aggravating. On the other hand, as great as Madson is, maybe two compensatory draft picks and a freed-up $10 mill/year would be more valuable.
Their apparent inability to tell that Madson is better than Contreras and that there’s no such thing as a “closer’s mentality” doesn’t inspire confidence as to their ability to make good decisions in the future, but maybe they’ll end up lucking into one that works out alright in this case.
there’s no such thing as a "closer’s mentality"
I still contend there is, people just overstate the importance of it.
Madson has made several comments over the past two seasons indicating that he thinks there is just a different mentality as a closer. I think it is more relevant that Madson believes in this than whether or not we think there is any legitimacy behind it. The way I look at it, if the Big Truck stalls, then Madson will get his shot to exercise his demons in the 9th. Until that point, I can’t really argue with the decision based on Madson’s past ineptitude in the 9th inning, contract year or not.
"Francisco!...that's fun to say!" - Buddy
by DirtyWaters on Apr 13, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Exorcise
exercise his demons
I’m trying to imagine someone taking their demons for a walk, letting the demons outside to do their business, feeding demons in a small bowl on the kitchen floor, and throwing a ball for the demons to fetch.
d’oh
"Francisco!...that's fun to say!" - Buddy
by DirtyWaters on Apr 13, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
pitching in the minors tonight
AAA: Ryan Feierabend
AA: Austin Hyatt
A+: Jon Pettibone
A: Ervis Manzanillo and Garett Claypool (doubleheader)
Manzanillo has already become my favorite pitching prospect, and he hasn’t even pitched in a game yet.
and Ervis has left the building…/Sterling’d
"Francisco!...that's fun to say!" - Buddy
by DirtyWaters on Apr 13, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I hate you.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Apr 13, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m glad I’m not the only one with vitriol toward those stupid home run calls
"Francisco!...that's fun to say!" - Buddy
by DirtyWaters on Apr 13, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
That would be much more fun if Ervis hit!
by dannijd on Apr 13, 2011 12:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
First three comments on Philly.com:
-Joe Blanton should be cut
-Blanton was “outdueled” by Livan, therefore he is terrible
-Charlie is the worst manager in the majors
Oh god save me
Blanton faced the other teams’ #1 (such as they are) in both his starts. Of course that in itself would not have been an issue if he had pitched better, or at least wasn’t the victim of .429 BABIP.
Celebrating 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1962-2011
.429?
Lordy.
Oh, I don't know. I think the GM should sign that free agent velociraptor to fortify the bench. He's a playoff veteran who still shows a lot of hustle.
by LeepinLizardz on Apr 13, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Thank you for that. Really.
Rationality is the biggest reason I love TGP so much.
Oh, I don't know. I think the GM should sign that free agent velociraptor to fortify the bench. He's a playoff veteran who still shows a lot of hustle.
by LeepinLizardz on Apr 13, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
But that’s meaningless. It’s the first week of baseball. The majority of stats are meaningless for now. For example,
for players with a career .330 OBP this is how much random variation skews things
in 10 PAs, 68% of those measured will have an OBP between .181 and .479, whereas 95% will be between .033 and .627
in 20 PAs those percentages of players have OBPs between .225 and .435, .120 and .540
50 PAs it’s .264 and .396, .197 and .436
100 PAs – .283 and .377, .236 and .424
200 PAs – .297 and .363, .264 and .396
500 PAs – .309 and ,.351, .288 and .372
1000 PAs – .315 and .345, .300 and .360
I’d think it best to look at his pitch f/x data. Compare this year’s pitch velocities, movement values, and release points to last year. Look at his game day data – what pitches caused swings and misses, and what balls and strikes were hits. If an alot of quality strikes or balls are hits, it’s a good chance that he was unlucky. If there are alot of hitter friendly strikes I’d say that he may have been unlucky in so far as the ball wasn’t hit to a fielder but he did nothing to maximize the conditions to make himself lucky – in other words threw pitches that would give the batter the best chance of getting a base hit or a HR. If he was serving up cookies, he pitched poorly.
.
I think there’s a kernel of truth to what you’re saying here, but even if that’s so, it’s also the case that Blanton isn’t even really giving up very many hard hit balls. His K and GB rates are high, his FB rate is low, and his LD rate is right in line with his career norms. It just so happens that a disproportionate number of the hard-hit balls he’s given up have been bunched together.
I can sort of believe that a high BABIP can say something “real” in a small sample size, but I have a much harder time believing that the sequence of BABIP can say something real even in a tiny sample size.
I believe the Joe actually mentioned that he was having trouble with pitching out of the stretch. So in that sense, in fact, the sequence could be saying something real.
by philsandthrills on Apr 13, 2011 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
A correctable problem though, if true. Probably just as unlikely as the luck-based stats are to continue recurring.
In the same comment, he mentioned that he believed he knew what it was and that it would be fixed in time for his next start. I guess we’ll have to watch carefully when he first gets into the stretch.
by philsandthrills on Apr 13, 2011 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
By the way, did you see Rich Dubee going out of his way to be a jackass?
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Dubee-skeptical-of-Blantons-mechanical-problem.html
So, Rich, you haven’t talked to him about it, but you still somehow know that the explanation is mental weakness. And your proof of that is that he threw bad pitches? As if bad pitches can only result from mental weakness and not from a mechanical issue? The whole reason why a mechanical issue is an issue is that it results in bad pitches.
Dubee often seems to care more about playing macho man for media consumption than actually getting facts right.
No, I hadn’t seen that. Joe’s only his 5th starter now, so I guess he doesn’t deserve his respect.
I was going to make a joke about the cutter, but I just looked and apparently Joe has thrown it 18% of the time this year.
Maybe Dubee is the problem.
by philsandthrills on Apr 13, 2011 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t have a strong opinion one way or the other on whether Dubee is a good pitching coach. But man, can he ever be an a-hole.
I wonder if he’ll outsmug Ruben this year. The pitching rotation gives him about as much job security as a tenured professor, so you know he’ll be close.
by philsandthrills on Apr 13, 2011 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions
The more I think about this, the more it pisses me off.
I mean, let’s even say, for the sake of argument, that Dubee’s entirely correct and that Joe doesn’t really have a mechanical issue at all. Say Joe’s just thinking wishfully and trying to convince himself that he’s fine. Well, isn’t that a pretty standard motivational technique that athletes use in all sports? Can’t maintaining your self-confidence be a key to success? Wouldn’t you, as a coach, encourage your player to believe in the story he’s telling himself, at least until that technique proves not to work?
Of course you would – UNLESS you care less about getting results from your player than you do about showing the player who’s boss and posturing for the media as “Mr. No-bullshit” (which can itself become a form of bullshit if you do it as an act).
Ryan Lawrence being stupid (as usual)
Here’s the stupidest passage:
To illustrate this point, here’s a game we can play. It’s called, “Name the Pitcher.” We’ll use the stats from 2010.
Ready? Good.
Pitcher A: 11-10, 4.73 ERA, 1.37 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched), .283 opponents batting average, .807 opponents OPS, 84 strikeouts, 49 walks in 180 2/3 innings, 33 games.
Pitcher B: 9-6, 4.82 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, .291 BA, .796 OPS, 134 strikeouts, 43 walks in 175 2/3 innings, 29 games.
OK. Put down your pencils.
Pitcher A? That’s Kyle Kendrick, the sixth man in the Phillies five-man rotation.
Pitcher B? That’s Blanton.
While Blanton surely strikes out more batters than he walks, the rest of those numbers are pretty darn close, huh? Once could also argue – as long as they wore heavy armor while doing so – that Kendrick was more effective and more durable than Blanton last season (Blanton missed the first month with an oblique injury).
This is where his willful lack of even a working knowledge of advanced metrics makes him look like a real moron. This is just an astoundingly, irresponsibly dumb thing to say.
http://phollowingthephillies.blogspot.com/2011/04/fifth-starter-conundrum.html
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
Also this:
Now, as the “armor” comment suggests, we completely expect more overreaction here, mostly because Kendrick is an easy target/whipping boy. But the point being made here is, based on last year’s respective performances, the drop-off from Blanton to Kendrick is in no way equal to the drop-off from, say, Roy Oswalt to Blanton.
It’s two starts into the season, so it’s far too premature to talk about replacing a starting pitcher. And Joe Blanton, in the second year of a three-year, $24 million deal, is very unlikely to lose that spot unless he gets hurt no matter how far along the Phils are in their season, in my opinion.
But it’s at least worth noting that the Phils sixth starter might not bas as far behind Blanton as public opinion would lead you to believe.
I, for one, am not even willing to concede that Oswalt to Blanton is a bigger drop off than Blanton to Kendrick. It’s probably pretty close actually. And it’s definitely nowhere near what Lawrence thinks it is.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Apr 13, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Advanced metrics aside, another problem with this is that it’s comparing only the most recent seasons of Kendrick, pitching as well as he likely ever will pitch, and Blanton, having superficially his worst season, clearly impacted by an injury. Not unlike those looking for reasons to replace Rollins with Valdez.
That’s a great point and a fantastic comparison.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Apr 13, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
But the point being made here is, based on last year’s respective performances, the drop-off from Blanton to Kendrick is in no way equal to the drop-off from, say, Roy Oswalt to Blanton.
Advanced metrics aside, another problem with this is that it’s comparing only the most recent seasons of Kendrick, pitching as well as he likely ever will pitch, and Blanton, having superficially his worst season, clearly impacted by an injury.
Blanton appeared to recover from his injury sometime in mid-June last year. Since July 1, 2010:
Joe Blanton xFIP: 3.36
Roy Oswalt xFIP: 3.33
Valdez did win the MVP last year though
"Francisco!...that's fun to say!" - Buddy
by DirtyWaters on Apr 13, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s attempting to set up a big surprise for us by showing how “PItcher A” is so much better, or, at least, the equal, than “Pitcher B.”
The biggest problem lies with this:
…84 strikeouts, 49 walks in 180 2/3 innings…
…134 strikeouts, 43 walks in 175 2/3 innings…
Someone not familiar with the advanced metrics still understands walks and strikeouts, and, while neither man is Nolanrandybob Ryanjohnsongibson, a K/9 rate of 6.86 is substantially better than 4.19, and those aren’t numbers you’ve got to look for. Anyone reading his mumbo-jumbo paying even the slightest attention will catch the BB and K numbers.
Nolanrandybob…he must be from the south
"Francisco!...that's fun to say!" - Buddy
by DirtyWaters on Apr 13, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting Stat
Contact percentage doesn’t really become significant until about 100 PA or so, but it’s still interesting to see that Ryan is making contact on 75.0% of his swings on pitches out of the strike zone. This has lead him to an 80.3% overall contact percentage.
This comes at the same time as a career low swing percentage, just 44.9% of pitches.
by philsandthrills on Apr 13, 2011 3:18 PM EDT reply actions
Schmenkman
Do you think you could do an updated BABIP chart for the season? I think it’d be pretty enlightening as to how sustainable or unsustainable certain players performances have been.
by philsandthrills on Apr 13, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Ervis Manzanillo gives up a run in the first inning.
by philsandthrills on Apr 13, 2011 6:53 PM EDT reply actions
He’s caught in a trap. He can’t walk out.
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)
by bandwagonesque on Apr 13, 2011 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
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