Some Weekend Phillies Links: April 23, 2011
by schmenkman on Apr 23, 2011 9:23 AM EDT
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Evaluating a half season of Oswalt
Including the loss in his first game 24 hours after being traded to the Phillies, he's 10-1 with a 1.70 ERA
Madson's absence causes a bullpen shuffle
Irrational exuberance for Stutes in the comments.
Is Ryan Braun’s Extension Worse Than Howard’s?
Dave Cameron says probably.
Oswalt Gets Creative, Makes Up Pitch
... to end that ridiculously long Jorge Cantu at bat.
Wearing the Golden Sombrero with Pride
featuring Ricky Bo
Count worked by Phillies batter
The Phils are 29th out of 30 in MLB in pitches per PA. Complete list.
Hot and Not
... among Phils' minor leaguers
Does MLB Have an Attendance Problem?
Too early to tell
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Braun deal
Age and years have a funny way of shaping perceptions thusly:
1. Putting this together with the attendance article, I’m with some of the commenters on Cameron’s piece who rightly wonder what the FA economics will be in 2020. Yet the dollars just keep zooming up and up and up… either creeping Old Cootism is affecting me, or it’s the summer of 1929. Can’t tell which.
2. If Howard and Braun are real similar players at same age in time, damn, but Howard was really, really good a few years ago.
by Wet Luzinski on Apr 23, 2011 10:01 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
So apparently the Marlins with that pitching might be legit.
66 runs given up, same as the Phillies and Padres. One more than the A’s. The amazing thing is that the teams not named Phillies play half of their games in what everyone considers to be pitcher friendly ballparks. Though Florida is probably the least pitcher friendly of the three.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
They’re legit, for sure, and also in a better weather, weak part of their schedule (though to be fair, probably schedule strength is identical to the Phillies). The homestand they started last night will be telling, as COL and LAD are playing well – and a tough stretch of games that culminates in May 8-11 vs. the Phils.
by Wet Luzinski on Apr 23, 2011 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I just hate the fact that the Marlins are going to be a throne in the Phillies side, again. I despise the Mets and Braves as much as the next fan, the Nationals, whatever, but the Marlins, I don’t really dislike them, but they get on my nerves by being that team that never goes away. Hopefully the Phillies bats wake up because that very well could be the difference between the two.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Game of Marlins?
"Francisco!...that's fun to say!" - Buddy
by DirtyWaters on Apr 23, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Enjoyed the first episode.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Sort of. I never read the books so I have no idea if it happened in those, but I figured what happened in the end would make the show more interesting…as screwed up as it was.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Strange — Seattle is now leading MLB in P/PA, which means that their games are too long, and ultimately disappointing. Sort of the opposite of the Phillies.
And most of their games are played with overcast…they must have the most depressing fans in baseball.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Phils in MLB top ten in 09, 11th in 2010. This is a big drop off. MLB avg. seems (over a few years) to hug 3.84 pitches per PA.
Big changes for the Phillies since last year? Here are numbers from 2010, and compare the players who are gone to the players who were there last year.
1. Werth 4.36 v. Francisco 3.77 (Dom Brown was 4.46 in his 70 AB last year)
2. Utley 3.99 v. Valdez 3.38 (! – this is a huge outlier)
Jayson Werth 4.36
Shane Victorino 3.67
Wilson Valdez 3.38
Chase Utley* 3.99
Mike Sweeney 3.66
Brian Schneider* 3.80
Carlos Ruiz 4.22
Jimmy Rollins# 3.71
Placido Polanco 3.54
Roy Oswalt 3.74
Jamie Moyer* 4.20
John Mayberry 3.54
Kyle Kendrick 3.47
Raul Ibanez* 4.00
Ryan Howard* 3.90
Cole Hamels* 3.33
Roy Halladay 3.52
Ross Gload* 3.68
Ben Francisco 3.77
Domonic Brown* 4.46
Joe Blanton 3.22
Of the Phillies list, I found Jamie Moyer’s to be probably he coolest. Also, in terms of regulars, last year (before he was hurt), we all saw the emergence of the MC Hammer God of Walks, Jimmy Rollins. He was seeing more pitches.
Polanco, Victorino, Valdez, and Rollins were definitely the worst offenders last year, though, which goes to show that those of us who “watch the games” were pretty much spot on with our collective frustration at the inability of those players to work the count.
I think you can compare and contrast (if not correlate) the better performances of Chooch, Werth, Howard, and Utley (and to a lesser exent Ibanez) to their freer-swinging brethren, Polanco, Victorino, Valdez, and Rollins.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Apr 23, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously, people
Valdez – 3.38!
And YTD for 2011, it’s at 3.34. HE’S REGRESSING!!!!
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Apr 23, 2011 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
sticks fingers in ears
MVP MVP LA LA LA CAN’T HEAR YOU
by perfectdepth on Apr 23, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re right — he swings at everything not because he is a no talent hack, but rather because he is giving 100% MAXIMUM EFFORT™ AND THAT’S WHAT COUNTS!!! Cue ROCKY!
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Apr 23, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
So the Phillies will be middle of the pack as soon as Utley’s back?
by philsandthrills on Apr 23, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
No. Utley’s not elite in P/PA, and while Valdez is really, really bad, the difference between his 3.34 career P/PA and Utley’s 3.99 is 0.65. One-ninth of that (as in 1/9 of the batting order) is 0.072, which added to the Phillies’ current 3.69 aggregate P/PA would take them up to 3.76, tied with the Orioles and Diamondbacks for 9th worst in baseball.
I found the pitches per PA stat is interesting. Is there any correlation between pitches per Pa and offensive production?
Unless of course, it’s Jayson Werth, who didn’t quite justify his reputation as a patient hitter despite the number of pitches seen per PA.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Apr 23, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Sometimes I thought he was too patient. It seemed like he got called out on alot of “too close to take pitches” but that could have been selective perception on my part.
Never walked more than 91 times in a season (2009), highest walk rate was in the 14% range (2007 in a part time role) and highest OBP (for a full season) was about .388 (2010 – he had a .404 OBP in 2007). Decent, to be sure….
However…for a guy who supposedly was a patient hitter (reputation precedes him), he has never walked 100 times in a season and struck out many times.
Don’t get me wrong – Werth is a very good player and was very valuable to the Phillies, but I think the results bear out a slightly different take than that of him being this great and patient hitter.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Apr 23, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
What about Chase Utley? Does he strike you as patient? He’s also never drawn 100 walks in a season. His career high BB rate is 12.8%. Meanwhile, Howard’s career rate has been dropping every year, remaining inflated by his first couple of seasons, before the league adjusted.
In fact, those numbers you quote for Werth are excellent. No one ever said he was Barry Bonds.
Who cares if he never had 100 walks in a season? Why is this the marker of whether someone is patient or not? Who cares if he struck out a lot? A 12%+ walk rate and a .380+ OBP is excellent and is absolutely the mark of a “patient hitter”. In fact, his 12.6% was good for 18th in the league last year.
This is a case of you letting your own opinion of what a “patient hitter” is obscure the fact that, objectively, he is a patient hitter.
And from 2007 to 2010, his .387 wOBA was good for 15th best in baseball.
So quite simply, you are wrong on all counts.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Apr 23, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, .387 ties him for 14th with Joe Mauer over that span—someone most people would probably call a “great hitter”.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Apr 23, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I will concede the point.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Apr 23, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
if you want to talk about a guy who sees a lot of pitches but doesn’t draw a lot of walks, Casey Blake is a better example. 3rd in the NL for P/PA in 2010, but only 8.4% BB (39th).
by perfectdepth on Apr 23, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably due to a lot of foul balls, then.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Apr 23, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Ryan Howard actually has a higher career walk rate than Werth – although I am sure that will change by the end of this season. Howard – 12.3%; Werth – 12.2%
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Apr 23, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Howard’s high IBB rates in 2006/2007 skew that pretty drastically. his career unintentional walk rate is only 9.2%.
by perfectdepth on Apr 23, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, but that was sort of what I was getting at, in a roundabout way. No one would EVER say that Ryan Howard is a patient hitter.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Apr 23, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
He was more patient than the league average last year. See above.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Apr 23, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
exactly
if your standard for “patient hitter” is 100+ walks per year, you’re setting the bar too high. two NL hitters (Fielder & Pujols) drew 100 walks last year; Werth was 8th with 82. five NL hitters drew 100 walks in 2009; Werth was 10th with 91.
Werth is well above average in terms of patience. it’s pretty much inarguable.
by perfectdepth on Apr 23, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Bobby Abreu
…who sucks because he’s too lazy to swing at pitches is averaging 4.43 pitches per plate appearance this year. Boy, am I glad the Phillies got rid of him.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Apr 23, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but how many outfield walls has he been afraid of per game?
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Apr 23, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Trick question
He has been afraid of all of them!
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Apr 23, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
As far as I can tell, nobody here is actually in disagreement on anything.
I believe what WM was trying to say is that Werth is a very patient hitter, but that many fans perceive him to be in the ultra-ultra-elite in patience based on his P/P/PA, when his BB rate would weigh against going that far.
I guess there may be some disagreement on whether that description of what the fans perceive is accurate, but I think everyone agrees on the underlying substance. Werth is very patient, but there are a number of guys who are more patient.
Yes, that is exactly what I was trying to say, only much more eloquent and succinct on your part. Thank you.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Apr 23, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Unless of course, it’s Jayson Werth, who didn’t quite justify his reputation as a patient hitter despite the number of pitches seen per PA.
But you could see how this statement might lead one to believe he’s saying that Werth is not patient, right? I agree though, I think the confusion stems from his misapplication of the term “patient hitter” when he actually meant “one of the five or ten most patient hitters in the game”.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
The trick is, what was Werth’s reputation? To the extent that people differ on that factual premise, people will interpret the point made from that premise differently.
True. I guess I just don’t see that many people counting Werth among the ultra-ultra-elite in patience and plate discipline. If anything, those skills were undervalued by the average fan and properly valued by the more avid, statistically inclined fan. Maybe the media would run a little wild with their proclamations about the extent of his patience, but I don’t really recall it happening that much.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
I guess the way I was going about it was there seemed to be something off whenever I would hear national media figures and talking heads talk about the ‘great patience’ of Werth.
And make no mistake, he walks at a 50% better rate than the league average. I do not dispute that, but I suppose there is a perception gap for a guy who has never walked 100 times and also strikes out 140-150+ times. The true value in Werth (and guys like Utley) is to raise pitch counts and allow hitters to see more and get their pitch to hit.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Apr 23, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Just my opinion, but maybe the “great patience” of Werth at the plate was not truely correct just because he was batting with the likes of J-Roll, Vic, etc. Polly is really the only guy who knows how to work a count (maybe Chooch too, but hard to tell when he is always batting 8th and small sample size this year).
"We are the Borg. Resistance is futile."
A. Ruiz batted 7th about as much as he batted 8th last year.
B. It is unclear what you mean by “work a count”. If after having watched Werth play with the Phillies for 4 seasons you still believe he couldn’t “work a count,” then it is clear that you have a very peculiar definition of that term.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
I have watched Werth for the last several years he has played with us. I guess what I was alluding to (although mayby not correct) was that some of his patience at the plate (ie. working the count) could have been affected by the batters preceeding him in the line-up.
As to Ruiz, “always” was the wrong word to use, I really meant usually.
"We are the Borg. Resistance is futile."
I don’t see how Werth’s patience could be affected by the batters preceding him. It’s his patience, not theirs.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
Not sure what you mean abou his K’s. High K’s usually means you’re taking a lot of pitches, doesn’t it?
Celebrating 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1962-2011
by schmenkman on Apr 23, 2011 7:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Depends on your definition of “patience” I suppose. To me patience denotes an approach at the plate (generally, only swinging at good strikes), and the results are only indicators.
I would say that P/PA is the #1 indicator of patience, though other factors (fouling off pitches for instance) can confound it. Both a high walk rate and a high strikeout rate are also indicators. Since Werth is very high in P/PA, and also high (but not extremely high) in walks and strikeouts, it seems reasonable to call him “very patient”.
First, I don’t know if I’d agree that P/PA is the #1 indicator of patience, since not every hitter necessarily sees the same percentage of good strikes, even over the course of a long season. If it is #1, it’s the first among rough equals. All those stats are important indicators.
In any event, what you said is again not in disagreement with my interpretation of WM’s view. See the last sentence of the comment you responded to.
I think if you look at someone’s first pitch splits (in relation to total plate appearances) and rhe corresponding data, in most cases that’s a better indicator than p/pa.
In werths case, hes had 155 one pitch plate appearences out of 3000 career ones
About 5% and he has a 465 avg and a 1.39 ops. Thats with a BABIP of around 400.
To put that in perspective, victorio has about 100 more career plate appearances and over 300 one pitch ones. He’s still .360 and over .800.
Says a lot, IMO.
by Joecatz on Apr 23, 2011 6:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
In 2009 when he drew 91 walks , 400 of his 676 plate appearances were 2 strike AB’s, so either even or behind the count with two strikes. he was horrible 0-2, 1-2, or 2-2, and those were the AB’s where he would always flail at a ball that was close and foul off a pitch or two. He was great at keeping the AB going when he was behind, not so great at holding back on a ball when he was behind in the count, then he’d sit and look at one on the corner for a called strike three….
He also rarely went after the first pitch, unless it was a mistake in his wheelhouse which is where the p/pa thing skews on him, I think… and why people always thought he was more patient than he really was…
should also add that I think the term “patient Hitter” is very very broad, and probably means different things to different people. I don’t necessarily think patience means a high walk rate or a low strike out rate, depending on the type of hitter you are dealing with. In terms of working a count, Jayson was a very very patient hitter, IMO.
But he hit in the five hole, was trying to produce runs, and wasn’t looking to work the count to walk most of the time, the way a guy like Luis Castillo works the count, he worked the count to get a pitch to drive.
Does that make any sense?
well, no. because then that’s not “patience,” that’s “producing runs.”
there’s really no way you can interpret going after the first pitch as patience. that’s not a value judgment; sometimes it’s great to swing at the first pitch. but there’s no plausible way that it’s “patient.”
by perfectdepth on Apr 23, 2011 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Look at my example above. Everyone goes after the first pitch from time to time. But a patient hitter will take more first pitch strikes that aren’t “good strikes” than not. Werth is a perfect example. When he makes contact with the first pitch he gets a hit 46% of the time. He also takes a lot of suspect first strikes, meaning he is ahead in the count a lot too, and more likely to get another hittable strike.
Vic, on the other hand swings and makes contact with the first pitch 10 percent of the time, and gets a hit 37% of the time. That’s a huge difference. Means he swings at more first pitches, which means he swings at more suspect strikes (and balls at eye level…) which leads to more outs, and more instances too, most likely where he’s behind in the count after swinging.
by Joecatz on Apr 24, 2011 5:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Agreed with the interesting. We bemoan the lack of patience on the game threads and it turns out to be validated by (admittedly sss) data.
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)
by bandwagonesque on Apr 23, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I really like that Oswalt Gets Creative thing. Can you imagine if Cantu fouled off the impromptu spiked slider? I like to imagine him just getting increasingly more creative until he eventually had to drop-kick the ball or maybe sling a left-handed knuckler. Oswalt is so freaking cool. "I spiked it."
Oswalt may be luck-driven, but damn if a 1.70 ERA in 16 games isn’t one of the best stretches by a Phillie in a long time.
by philsandthrills on Apr 23, 2011 1:29 PM EDT reply actions
Agreed. Luck is always a factor, but I think Oswalt’s sample size is large enough to start concluding, “Damn, he’s pretty good.”
by Senor Octubre on Apr 23, 2011 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
On TV yesterday, Wheels was saying how Oswalt’s made-up pitch was a knuckle-curve that he’d been throwing in the outfield, and that he might try using it in his bullpens to see what it looked like.
Of course, that’s Wheels for you.
“Polanco didn’t go to third, there… Rollins, I mean, was the runner, and he… Polanco, sorry, didn’t go… Rollins, trying to play it safe with one out at second, Polanco stayed at second on the play, which was the right thing to do with one out.”
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