Phillies Stat Notes -- 4/26/11

On a general note, the Phils have won 100 of the last 162 regular season games.

Hitting

Raul Ibanez's splits
OPS at Home: .731 (.275/.356/.375 in 45 PAs)
OPS on Road: .252 (.079/.146/.105 in 41 PAs)

He's been even worse vs. righties than vs. lefties:
OPS vs. RHP: .480 (.193/.270/.211 in 63 PAs)
OPS vs. LHP: .551 (.143/.217/.333 in 23 PAs)

Brian Schneider: all or nothing
2 for 16 with 2 HRs (0-9 on balls in play).

Hitting luck
In previous posts I've tried to separate "luck" from good hitting by comparing recent BABIP to career BABIP, which made the assumption that any difference between the two is luck.  There is a more accurate way to estimate the luck component, and that's by calculating an expected BABIP (xBABIP) using batted ball data.

There is a xBABIP calculator here.  Using this tool, the columns in the table below now mean:
- adj OPS  is what each player's OPS would be if you added/subtracted enough singles to bring their 2011 BABIP in line with their expected BABIP
- lucky is how this year's BABIP compares to their expected BABIP
- hot/cold is the how the adj OPS compares to their career OPS (for the Team, career numbers are from 2010)

The team BABIP of .294 is the result of two streaks:
- .400 BABIP in their first 8 games, when they scored 7.0 runs per game
- .228 BABIP in their last 14, when they scored 2.8 per game

(more after the break)

 11phils32544image009_medium

11phils32544image006_medium

 

Pitching

Phillies' starts vs. opponents' starters:
As FuquaManuel pointed out, we should not expect each of the Phillies' starting pitchers to face their counterpart in the opposing rotation on a regular basis.  So far this year, in fact, Joe Blanton has actually faced the highest average opposing starter, with 2 #1s, a 2 and a 3 averaging out to 1.8:

opponent:   1   2   3   4   5 Starts Avg
Halladay 1 2 1 0 1 5 2.6
Lee 1 1 2 1 0 5 2.6
Oswalt 1 0 1 2 0 4 3.0
Hamels 1 1 0 2 0 4 2.8
Blanton 2 1 1 0 0 4 1.8
Totals 6 5 5 5 1 22   2.5

I was continually surprised over the offseason when I heard people say that the Phillies staff didn't have "swing and miss stuff".  It's true in fact, that the Phils' bullpen is only 15th out of 16 in the NL in K/9, but in spite of this, the staff overall has the 2nd highest K/9 rate in the NL at 8.3.   They also have:
- lowest BB/9 (2.6)
- lowest HR/9 (0.5)
- highest SO/BB (3.25)
- lowest WHIP (1.15)
- lowest FIP (2.80) and xFIP (3.22)

Starters: 2011 vs. 2010
The ERA is better, but the FIP is much better, thanks to fewer walks, more K's and fewer HRs.

First 22 starts
G  W  L  IP IP/G  H  R ER  BB/9   K/9   K/BB   HR/9  PC/G %ST GSC ERA WHIP   FIP
2010 22 9 6 133.7 6.1 143 67 62   2.56   6.94    2.71   1.41 96.9 63 50 4.17 1.35 4.56
2011 22 10 5 142.7 6.5 131 56 54   1.89   8.96    4.73   0.57 99.1 67 57 3.41 1.13 2.66
 
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