Joe Blanton Is Pretty Unique
by taco pal on Apr 6, 2011 9:00 AM EDT
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PrintJoe Blanton may not be an "ace" but he's a good pitcher who is sometimes underappreciated. We've spent a lot of time discussing this around these parts and there's no reason to beat that horse any further. One issue we haven't discussed as much, however, is how Blanton is so good. The answer to that question is less than obvious.
It's well known that although the ability to throw a 90 mph-or-better fastball is not a sufficient condition for succeeding as a major league pitcher, it's fairly close to being a necessary condition - at least for righties. Last year, there were only 20 RHP in MLB (min. 100 IP) whose fastballs were, on average, slower than 89.5 mph. Blanton just "made the cut" at 89.4 mph.
| Name | FBv | GB% | K/9 | BB/9 | xFIP |
| Tim Wakefield | 72.9 | 37.0 | 5.40 | 2.31 | 4.70 |
| R.A. Dickey | 83.9 | 55.1 | 5.37 | 2.17 | 3.75 |
| Livan Hernandez | 84.3 | 39.3 | 4.85 | 2.72 | 4.57 |
| Dave Bush | 86.5 | 39.5 | 5.52 | 3.36 | 4.78 |
| Jason Vargas | 86.6 | 36.3 | 5.42 | 2.52 | 4.60 |
| Jeff Suppan | 87.0 | 40.3 | 4.53 | 3.29 | 4.85 |
| Shaun Marcum | 87.1 | 38.4 | 7.60 | 1.98 | 3.71 |
| John Ely | 87.4 | 45.8 | 6.84 | 3.60 | 4.09 |
| Freddy Garcia | 87.8 | 40.7 | 5.10 | 2.58 | 4.41 |
| Bronson Arroyo | 88.0 | 43.4 | 5.05 | 2.46 | 4.42 |
| Joel Pineiro | 88.0 | 54.9 | 5.44 | 2.01 | 3.73 |
| Rodrigo Lopez | 88.2 | 37.6 | 5.22 | 2.52 | 4.50 |
| Doug Fister | 88.4 | 47.1 | 4.89 | 1.68 | 4.10 |
| Derek Lowe | 88.5 | 58.8 | 6.32 | 2.83 | 3.54 |
| Mike Leake | 88.7 | 50.2 | 5.92 | 3.19 | 4.16 |
| Jeff Karstens | 88.9 | 42.0 | 5.28 | 1.98 | 4.26 |
| Kevin Millwood | 89.0 | 37.2 | 6.23 | 3.07 | 4.46 |
| Brett Myers | 89.3 | 48.7 | 7.24 | 2.66 | 3.67 |
| Ian Kennedy | 89.3 | 37.1 | 7.79 | 3.25 | 4.10 |
| Joe Blanton | 89.4 | 41.9 | 6.87 | 2.20 | 3.87 |
Only six of these guys were able to post xFIPs below 4.00 - Dickey, Marcum, Pineiro, Lowe, Myers, and Blanton. The median xFIP in MLB was 4.04.
How did they do it? Surprisingly, it wasn't really because of great control. All six certainly had good control, but only two were truly top-of-the-line in that department. Marcum had the 12th lowest walk rate among the 147 major league pitchers who exceeded 100 IP, while Pineiro was 15th.
Three of the six were groundball machines. Dickey was 10th in GB%, Pineiro was 11th, and Lowe was 3rd.
The other three all had very good strikeout rates notwithstanding their slow fastballs. Two of those three were helped by nasty secondary pitches. Marcum posted a whopping +26.0 on his wCH (that is, his "changeup runs above average") - the second straight year he's reached positive double digits with that pitch. Myers has reached positive double digits on his curveball four times in his career, including in 2010 (+13.2 wCB). He also did it with his slider in 2010 (+14.7 wSL), the first time he's managed that feat.
And that leaves Mr. Blanton. He was very good at limiting walks, but he wasn't inhuman at it (26th lowest walk rate). He was actually below the median at inducing grounders (93rd best GB%). And none of his secondary pitches were particularly impressive - the most effective of them being a cutter that he didn't even throw very frequently (2.4 wCT).
Basically, aside from the good walk rate, the reason for Blanton's success last year was that, despite having a slow fastball and a bunch of secondary pitches that aren't that great, he was somehow still able to strike people out at a rate that was well above average (36th in MLB). How? You'll have to tell me because I honestly don't know.
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If it’s Chooch, shouldn’t every Phillies pitcher for the past several years have had a high K rate? If not, why not? Is there an observable dropoff in Blanton’s K rate when Schneider catches?
I guess it depends on how much the pitchers shake him off (if that sounds rude, sorry), and the batters’ expectations of our man Cookies as opposed to the other guys. Does anybody have the Chooch v. Schneider behind the plate K rates?
Doesn’t Carlos Ruiz just call the pitches he’s told to?
by SportingFanaticism on Apr 6, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I suppose the plethora of evidence against catcher calling impact wouldn’t sway you either huh?
by SportingFanaticism on Apr 6, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t see what this has to do with the question.
Everything I’ve ever read about the Phillies pitchers suggests that they work with the catcher on what pitches to throw when.
that is to say, I doubt the bench calls pitches (other than intentional walks, for example), because we haven’t been told that they do, whereas we have been told stories about pitchers working with catchers (i.e., Ruiz telling us about getting used to Oswalt, or Halladay telling us about not shaking Ruiz the whole game, till the last pitch, in his no-hitter vs. the Reds); all of the visible evidence of the pitchers talking to the catcher, shaking off pitches, tells me they’re not generally called by the bench
I wonder if Blanton’s success comes from having four legitimate pitches that he mixes well and pounds the strike zone with. Over the course of his career, his slider (0.50 wSL/C) and changeup (0.66 wCH/C) both grade out as above average, with his curve (-0.09 wCB/C) just slightly below. The fastball doesn’t grade out quite as well (-0.21 wFB/C), but it’s certainly usable. (All of these values are runs above average per 100 pitches.) His fastball being his worst pitch, he throws it less than the average pitcher throws a fastball, and he does do a pretty good job pounding the strike zone.
In other words, I wonder if Blanton is the absolute best case scenario for a guy with sort of above-average stuff.
Anyway, nice piece, TP… now hopefully you don’t jinx Blanton like David jinxed Hamels…
You know, now that you mention it, I recall that when Michael Barkann did his five-man interview of the rotation at the beginning of spring training, he asked each of the pitchers to characterize what makes them what they are, and Blanton talked about his “willingness to throw any pitch at any time in the count.”
In which case, I guess the point is that having a variety of only-okay pitches can give you the same success as having a normal number of nasty pitches. That seems like a obvious concept once articulated, but you rarely hear commentators talk about it, whether in reference to pitchers generally or to Blanton in particular.
Also, if this is right, I think the credit would belong more to Blanton for having the variety of pitches than to Ruiz for selecting which pitch to throw when.
Jamie Moyer is obviously a very different pitcher from Blanton, but there are a few similarities there as well. Moyer’s pitch variety was always one of the main reasons for his otherwise hard-to-comprehend success in the majors: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/being-jamie-moyer/
It makes me wonder why more middling pitching prospects don’t emphasize expanding their pitch repertoire over trying to master one secondary pitch. It seems like the former might be more achievable than the latter. But that could be wrong.
By the way, here are Blanton’s 2010 stats with Ruiz vs. Schneider/Sardinha/etc:
And for all the starters:
In both cases, K’s are a little higher with Chooch, but not dramatically so, but ERA is much lower.
Celebrating 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1962-2011
The B-R stats by catcher for the entire 2010 staff combined, are here.
ERA with Chooch (974 IP): 3.31
ERA with others (482 IP): 4.41
There was also a difference in 2009:
ERA with Chooch (882 IP): 4.00
ERA with others (573 IP): 4.41
The difference was smaller in 2008:
ERA with Chooch (828 IP): 3.83
ERA with others (622 IP): 3.95
Celebrating 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1962-2011
As SportingFanaticism says above, studies have shown that catcher ERA is not a reliable stat (i.e. game calling is not a repeatable skill) so take with a grain of salt.
Celebrating 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1962-2011
Actually, as I’m digging into this some more, it appears that the studies that discredit catcher ERA (CERA) are referring to comparisons of catchers on different teams. Obviously with different pitchers, parks, etc. that would cause a problem.
Comparing catchers on the same team (assuming there are no “personal catchers” to skew the data) should be fine if the sample is large enough.
In this case, I’m not sure we have a large enough sample yet that Ruiz makes a big difference in ERA, but I think it’s definitely trending that way and a third straight season of big differentials would be a pretty strong indicator.
Celebrating 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1962-2011
Just curious, why wouldn’t FIP be used? Everyone agrees ERA is somewhat luck based and a bad stat to judge pitchers on. Why would we use a bad stat to judge Catchers?
Baseball Reference has the splits by catcher, but it doesn’t have FIP. FanGraphs has FIP and xFIP, but no splits by catcher.
Celebrating 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1962-2011
It makes me wonder why more middling pitching prospects don’t emphasize expanding their pitch repertoire over trying to master one secondary pitch. It seems like the former might be more achievable than the latter. But that could be wrong.
I couldn’t agree more however I think the limiting factor is pitch counts. Pitcher’s can’t practice pitching at full speed without significantly increasing the injury risk and mastering new pitches takes more practice. Although this is also dependent on coaching as well. Learning a new pitch is technique and that falls under the purview of the coach to a certain extent. So perhaps a combination of pitch counts and average coaching is why you might not see prospects expanding their arsenals.
I think j reed is onto something with the pitch count thing, and I’m speculating here, but I think that Blanton is really the exception that proves the rule. It’s very difficult for guys with no plus pitch to carve out a career as an above-average starting pitcher, simply because I’d venture to guess that it’s very difficult to have four different average-ish pitches.
As for not focusing on one offspeed pitch, I’d venture to guess that guys who are looking like borderline starters are encouraged to hone one pitch to play up in the bullpen with a slightly revved up fastball.
Very interesting self-awareness there by Blanton...
So as others are commenting, if his variety is important, and he is “willing to throw any pitch at any time in the count”, even if he gets behind in the count (which he apparently does not do so much), batters can still not anticipate his one “go-to” pitch, because he has 4 different ones?
Also, as taco pal commented, I remember an article on Jamie Moyer (and they are clearly very different pitchers), that attributed his success to a variety of pitches that all looked the same coming in to the batter until too late.
Thanks for posting this, if only to move the joke trade Hamels post off the top….
But Blanton has long intrigued me. His strikeout rate increased dramatically almost as soon as he came to the Phillies, more than could be explained away by facing pitchers instead of DHs.
I think PhillyFriar puts it well. And I wonder what Dubee has to do with perhaps changing Blanton’s approach.
YOU have a problem with the Hamels post?
by SportingFanaticism on Apr 6, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
President Sarah Palin
(just trying to give some perspective of 3 words in a row that are a lot worse)
by SportingFanaticism on Apr 6, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
And then the great exodus to Canada begins :)
by SportingFanaticism on Apr 6, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I wanted to know if tha particular three word phrase was necessary… Some things are too awful to be put in print…
by dannijd on Apr 6, 2011 2:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It should be any democrats fervent wish that she wins the republican nom in 2012 actually ;)
by SportingFanaticism on Apr 6, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
No way. I don’t trust the American people to not f up that choice. I fear if she gets the nom, she’ll somehow get elected.
An even worse phrase: President Michelle Bachmann
I mean, just the expense of moving the White House to the cave where she keeps her batsh*t, would be staggering.
No way. I don’t trust the American people to not f up that choice. I fear if she gets the nom, she’ll somehow get elected.
If the American people are stupid enough to elect her then they get what they deserve.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Canada, here you come?
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
I have no idea who Michelle Bachmann is – is she the b in bto?
by SportingFanaticism on Apr 6, 2011 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok – so – um – who is brett baier (the closeest I get to ‘news’ i to watch CNBC a little in the morning)
by SportingFanaticism on Apr 6, 2011 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
FoxNews host I think.
Aristotle was not Belgian, the principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself", and the London Underground is not a political movement.
T’would explain it – i have a parental channel block on fox news at my house
by SportingFanaticism on Apr 6, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, replace Baier with Dan Rather and you get the same basic idea. Baier’s a fairly straight up news guy (as far as Fox goes).
You really should look up Bachmann, if you can get over the horror that she’s an elected politician with decision making power, her brand of crazy/stupid can be incredibly entertaining.
Perhaps this issue is the arbitrary cut off point of 89.5 mph fastball. Is there any statistically significant reason you chose this number? (I realize the that 90 mph is an important number in the baseball fan’s imagination but is there any other reason to chose this instead of 91 or 92) Are there similar pitchers to Blanton whose average fastball is slightly faster than his?
I dunno. Nice round number, I guess.
Also, if I had picked a lower cutoff, Blanton wouldn’t be in the group and there would be no article.
I understood the thesis of the article to be that Blanton is a unique pitcher because he’s successful without having extreme ground ball tendencies or a nasty secondary pitch that helps him pile up the strikeouts. I was suggesting there could be other pitchers that fit those criteria but have an average fastball speed slightly higher than Blanton, thus making him less unique than this article would have you believe. If you included every pitcher whose average speed is under 90.5 or 91, I imagine you would greatly increase your sample of pitchers without undermining the premise of the article, because the number 90 isn’t significant in any other way beyond its roundness. This is just a guess though, as I am far too lazy to do the leg work to actually provide evidence.
by groovyjazztime on Apr 6, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
No, you’re right about the thesis. The problem is that it’s also a fundamental premise of the article that having a slow fastball as a RHP is a serious impediment. Since the entire range of fastballs is basically about 8 mph and since Blanton’s right on the part of the bell curve that’s left of the middle but after where it starts bulging, raising the cutoff even a little bit (0.5 or 1.0 mph) could make a really serious difference.
In any event, I can tell you that the next “slowest” RHP in 2010 after Blanton were Aaron Cook (89.5), Randy Wells (89.6), Kevin Slowey (89.6), Jeremy Bonderman (89.8), Kyle Kendrick (89.8), Jered Weaver (89.9), Brian Bannister (90.0), Brad Bergesen (90.0), Colby Lewis (90.1), and Jon Garland (90.1). I think Wells and Lewis might be the most similar to Blanton? None of these guys are perfect parallels though.
A few thoughts on this:
1. Holy Crap! Kendrick has a higher average fastball speed than Blanton?
2. I’m amazed Jered Weaver is sub-90 considering his K rates.
3. Slowey, living up to his name.
4. Holy Crap! Kendrick has a higher average fastball speed than Blanton?
I was super-surprised by Weaver being there too. What’s really crazy is that, while he has a decent variety of secondary pitches (slider 19%, curve 9%, changeup 11% – one fewer than Blanton), none of them were above +10.0 last year. Instead, his dominant pitch was actually his fastball, which was at +13! Somehow he just takes that 89.9 heater and shoves it right down batters’ throats.
Aside from from Lowe and Pinero, how many guys on that list are sinkerballers? Your average sinkerball breaks best when its in 88-90mph unless your guys like Halladay, or other upper tier sinkerballers like Zambrano of old. And there’s also Big Pelf who throws sinkers in the 92-3 range. I aint puttin’ his name no wheres near Mr. Halladay’s – damn flithy varmit. I ask because sinkerballers are kinda their own thing and usually what sets them apart from other guys whose FBs are in the high 80’s to 90-1 is they don’t have to rely on quite the arsenal of off speed pitches (think Aaron Cook, Jon Garland types) that a Rodrigo Lopez has to. In fact I’ve always thought of Blanton as Lopez XP Pro with Service Pack 3 which would make him a good pitcher.
A lot of numbers that just tell you what you can get just from watching the games.
Joe Blanton just knows how to pitch
by SportingFanaticism on Apr 6, 2011 11:53 AM EDT reply actions
Neither do you usually but you keep on keeping on, good on ya son
by SportingFanaticism on Apr 6, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Can you identify a specific instance in which I had wrote something with no discernable point? Since that “usually” is the case, it shouldn’t be hard for you to come up with a few examples.
Well done, TP. Rec’d.
If I may take a stab at this, Blanton’s fastball is a two-seamer, correct? The added movement, coupled with what I recall as being a very good and slow 12-6 curve may help to cross hitters up more than a straight fastball.
Interesting issue though. Good problem to have.
Weird, a place where Fan Graphs falls down, they don’t parse between Two Seam and Four Seam Fastballs when they could (at least for the past two seasons)
by SportingFanaticism on Apr 6, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
FT is usually for two seamer but I don’t really trust how they differentiate between the two (FA is for 4 seamer). Brooks Baseball – Home of the Pitch F/X Tool might offer something more defined, if you don’t already know about the site.
Yeah, I know the site (try to get some guidance on their discussion forum, but finding pitchFX guidance online is like looking for WMD’s in Iraq. Still have no idea if hitfx or fieldfx is or will ever be available) but I have John’s Pitch F/X tool at home and if phrozen really is interested, I could run a two/four seam split for Blanton. at least for percentages.
My problem is that I still don’t get how to USE all the numbers pitchFX provides (but i can query the hell out of it – my personal favorite was figuring out how to get BABIP based on count and or pitch) – but those movement things are hard.
Plus I don’t know how to make contour maps
by SportingFanaticism on Apr 6, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
PS
I actually ran Joe Blantons pitch distribution last season for someone who was doing some playoff previews – so it’s just a matter of finding the file :)
by SportingFanaticism on Apr 6, 2011 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Where's Kendrick
I was shocked to see that Kendrick was not on this list. Although I couldn’t find his average fastball speed, I was even more surprise to find that Kendrick’s fastball was more effective than Blanton’s. Kendrick came in with a wFB/C of 0.18 (Compared to Blanton’s -0.21 wFB/C). Kendrick’s secondary pitches (wCT/C -0.77, wCH/C -2.40) seem godawful.
I think this is further evidence that a good mix of pitches, that are at least above average, can induce more strikeouts (Kendrick’s 2.7 to Blanton’s 6.9).
At the very least, we can say a mix of pitches keeps Joe Blanton from being Kyle Kendrick.
Kendrick came in with a wFB/C of 0.18 (Compared to Blanton’s -0.21 wFB/C). Kendrick’s secondary pitches (wCT/C -0.77, wCH/C -2.40) seem godawful.
Good argument for a career coming out of the pen.
Where would he fit as a career reliever though? 7th inning guy? Roogy?
Phive for Phive and kickin' it live
by Veni Vidi Vici on Apr 6, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
On the other hand, his woeful strikeout rate is a good argument for him being sent to Triple-A.
That’s the problem with Kendrick — if he’s a reliever, he’s a long reliever or a swingman. Which is why I can’t fault the Phillies for leaving him a starter all these years in the hope that something would click (though, of course, I can fault them for continuing to run him out there in the majors).
Well, I was talking with the hope that in shorter stints his stuff may play better out of the Pen. I don’t think he’s long for the Majors, but if he does stick it would really have to be that his stuff plays up in shorter stints, or he becomes the staff Ace in Pittsburgh.
I think the only real option for Kendrick is to trade him to a team who needs a backend starter and is willing to give up a somewhat decent prospect/bench player/reliever to get him. Of course I’m bitter since Kendrick started, and lost, all three games I went to last year.
Phive for Phive and kickin' it live
by Veni Vidi Vici on Apr 6, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair, they tried reasonably hard not to in 2010, but KK used his secret stash of voodoo dolls to defeat their plan.
3/29/10 – Jamie Moyer named fifth starter
4/3/10 – Joe Blanton goes on DL, Kyle Kendrick named fifth starter
4/22/10 – J.A. Happ goes on DL, Kyle Kendrick named fourth starter
5/3/10 – Joe Blanton returns on DL, Kyle Kendrick goes back to fifth starter
7/24/10 – J.A. Happ returns from DL, Kyle Kendrick sent to minors
7/26/10 – Jamie Moyer goes on DL, Kyle Kendrick goes back to fifth starter
7/29/10 – J.A. Happ traded but for Roy Oswalt, Kyle Kendrick stays fifth starter
They should have kept Figueroa over KK when they were faced with that choice, but the Phils are not the only organization that has failed to give Figueroa any credit.
No, Blanton had already become good at striking people out in 2009. That article was written in June 2010 when Blanton was just going through a post-injury-rehab slump. In typical pseudo-intelligent fashion, Cameron, after only eight starts, immediately jumped to the conclusion that Blanton had regressed to his pre-’09 form. Small sample size is OK for me but not for thee.
He was just pissed that Mariners still totally sucked after being the fangraps 2010 darlings of the off season while the Phillies, fangraphs 2010 winter stove whjipping boy was rolling along beautifully.
in fact, I believe his strikeout rate improved when he came to the Phillies in 2008.. yes, I just checked Fangraphs’ own stats (which are k/9 rather than k%), which show a marked increase after the trade with Oakland, again more than can be explained by now facing pitchers…
naturally, there was no follow-up article to show that Blanton returned to being his new striking people out self as the season wore on
Joe Blanton’s Fastball might pitch mad and have a little more zip on the fastball tonight if he heard the news about Tastykakes going out of business.
Phive for Phive and kickin' it live
possibly going out of business***
Phive for Phive and kickin' it live
by Veni Vidi Vici on Apr 6, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know what’s stranger — that there is such a thing, or that you own one.
Celebrating 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1962-2011
I don’t own one or even know if one exists…I meant that he is starting at 2nd tonight and I will be in section 138 whispering sweet nothings to him
"Francisco!...that's fun to say!" - Buddy
PETE ORR IS STARTING AT SECOND TONIGHT?
The Good Phight: stats, verse,/ And history play board games,/ Laugh at inside jokes.
by LeepinLizardz on Apr 6, 2011 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
OT, good game in KC, now in the 11th
KC had 1st and 3rd with one out in the bottom of the 11th, and Jeff Francoeur at the plate — Strikeout.
Celebrating 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1962-2011
oh for the love of
David Murphy, a/k/a Mike Stutes Superfan #1, talked up Stutes AGAIN on the radio just now. You’re a journalist, not a publicist, dude.
Murphy is many things, a journalist seems to be the one he seems to overlook the most.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
The thing is, I actually do like some of his writing. But Murph, YOU ARE NOT A SCOUT. I mean, neither am I, but I know enough to know that if a guy just came off a year in which he walked more than 5 batters per 9 IP in the high minors at age 23, it should take more than one good spring training camp to declare him the savior of the big league pen. I don’t care how good he looks in that one camp.
I do think he is a decent writer but I find it hard to take him seriously sometimes based on some of the things he does and says, whether it’s on the radio, or on tv. I think he overplays his hand a lot and then he just comes off as an asshat.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
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