Johnson Controls: Marlins 2, Phillies 1
by WholeCamels on May 10, 2011 10:13 PM EDT
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The heavyweight bout between the Marlins Josh Johnson and Phillies Roy Halladay ended about how we all expected -- a close, tense pitchers' duel -- ultimately resulting in a Marlins 2-1 victory, with Halladay taking the complete game loss. But it took some weird turns getting there.
The Phillies struck first, scoring their only run on a Ryan Howard opposite field home run to lead off the second inning. Raul Ibanez followed up with a double, and after Ben Francisco got hit by a pitch and Pete Orr drew a walk, the bases loaded, no out situation looked promising. But Josh Johnson retired Dane Sardinha, Roy Halladay, and Jimmy Rollins in order to end the threat. The Phillies loaded the bases again in the third, this time with two outs, but Pete Orr grounded into a fielder's choice to finish it off.
The Marlins tied it up in the bottom of the third, and we saw something... odd. Roy Halladay issued a full count walk to Josh Johnson, the first time in his entire career that he's walked the opposing pitcher. After a Chris Coghlan double, Johnson strolled home on a deep Emilio Bonifacio sacrifice fly.
After that, Johnson and Halladay went into Shutdown Mode. The Phillies never seriously threatened again, and the Marlins needed a handout to break through. Shortstop Jimmy Rollins' throwing error in the bottom of the eighth allowed Omar Infante to reach. Infante advanced to second on a (very catchable) wild pitch, and later scored on a Coghlan single, making the score 2-1, where it would stay.
Marlins closer Leo Nunez worked a hitless ninth for the save, walking John Mayberry for his only baserunner.
Halladay allowed just five hits but issued two walks and struck out nine. I'm guessing he'll never walk a pitcher again. Ever.
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Steal the damn base!
Rollins and Victorino could have changed the complexion of tonight’s game if they’d gotten into scoring position in the early going. Davey Lopes is gone, but that doesn’t mean they have to remain nailed to first base. John Buck throws one into center field and it’s a different game.
You are assuming Johnson does not pick them off- both (particularly Victorino) were held on very tightly.
by dannijd on May 10, 2011 10:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I would rather them get thrown out being aggressive in a game where every run is magnified. JJ’s pick off move was at the same point every time, in the motion of coming set. Once he was set, you could stare at his left heel and take off when it lifted. I’ll take my chances with a catcher that only throws out 20% of base stealers. Hindsight is 20/20, but I want Rollins and Victorino to steal every chance they get…especially in front of Polanco.
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." - Inigo
by DirtyWaters on May 10, 2011 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
After Howard, the Phils look like a Triple-A team
I really don’t see the harm or the downgrade in playing Mayberry for a good stretch over Francisco, who has a whopping 8 extra-base hits this year and 2 RBI in the last 10 games. Mayberry has 4 extras in a 1/3 of the at-bats and looks like an upgrade on defense. The complaints about Charlie not being more aggressive on the base paths is well deserved. Or, I don’t know having Valdez try bunting for a base hit.
Pretty ridiculous.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on May 10, 2011 10:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Under Title VII, an employer cannot use fetal protection as a bona fide occupational qualification.
by David S. Cohen on May 10, 2011 10:38 PM EDT reply actions
I first read that as fecal protection and was confused
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." - Inigo
by DirtyWaters on May 10, 2011 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Because fetal protection makes sense to you?
by David S. Cohen on May 10, 2011 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
well, not in that particular case, but I have heard that term before
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." - Inigo
by DirtyWaters on May 10, 2011 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you mean to say feeble production?
by phillyinportland on May 11, 2011 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Glass half full
23-12, .650 ball without the bats of Misters Utley and Werth? With Cliff Lee on the hill tomorrow? I’ll take it.
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)
by bandwagonesque on May 10, 2011 10:39 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Heyward hurt. Getting MRI on shoulder. These injury things have a way of evening out over a season. Good to see we’re not the only team that has them.
This is awfully close to celebrating an injury.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on May 10, 2011 10:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Can we celebrate that the Braves have temporarily lost the services of one of their top men offensive players, regardless of the reason?
No- that would be totally classless and anger Baseba’al into either (a) delaying the return of the Phillies on the DL with a painful setback or (b) raining another serious injury on them.
by dannijd on May 10, 2011 11:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Since when does Marco Scutaro play hockey?
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." - Inigo
by DirtyWaters on May 10, 2011 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
That is a shame. I really hope that he is alright- I can hear the excuses from TC already if the Phillies beat a Heyward-less Braves team.
by dannijd on May 10, 2011 11:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Not about even- this is about not needing outside factors (injuries, etc) to win the game. Injuries are the price of being an old team. We must accept that, and not try to drag the Braves, who will pay in different ways for Youth, to our level.
by dannijd on May 10, 2011 11:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What you talkin’ ’bout?
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, fun!
by FuquaManuel on May 10, 2011 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Almost as classy as that little punch that Victorino threw in Nuñèz's back.
:)
"I'll give any teller who gives me a lollipop 4 stars."-Chip Kelly
by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on May 10, 2011 11:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Oh, now, now.
You love the Braves.
"I'll give any teller who gives me a lollipop 4 stars."-Chip Kelly
by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on May 10, 2011 11:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
We must have lost. I hear quacking.
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)
by bandwagonesque on May 10, 2011 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually don’t mind the Braves…the Nationals on the other hand, they really bother me
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." - Inigo
by DirtyWaters on May 10, 2011 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
you missed it
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." - Inigo
by DirtyWaters on May 10, 2011 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions
As long as they give us 5 out of every 6 games, I love the Nats.
Must…learn…trick…
Nomadic baseball fan, with no agenda other than observation/conversation/mass confusion/mass consumption. And annoying 09.
Prosecutor: "Jesus Christ, did ANYBODY tell the truth to the grand jury?"
Barry Bonds: "I did."
Prosecutor: "GAH!"
by victor frankenstein on May 11, 2011 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Me too.
"I'll give any teller who gives me a lollipop 4 stars."-Chip Kelly
by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on May 10, 2011 11:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What’s the matter sweetie?
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on May 10, 2011 11:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That should have been a passed ball
Not that it softens the blow of the loss at all, but Sardinha wasn’t even close to full extension on that.
by Vaughn Haze on May 10, 2011 11:00 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I guess it doesn’t matter, ERA-wise, since Infante reached on an error to begin with. But with Doc in the hunt for the ERA crown most years that’s the kind of scoring decision that could have been significant.
by phillyinportland on May 11, 2011 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions
A question for TGPers
Without the benefit of hindsight, at the time of the at bat, would you have been pleased to lock in a GIDP by Sardinha scoring Ibanez at that point in the game.
Close call for me in this very low scoring expectation game. I might lean to yes at marlins stadium.
by Vaughn Haze on May 10, 2011 11:06 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
pleased is an understatement
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." - Inigo
by DirtyWaters on May 10, 2011 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes. Knowing how tight this game was (an how few scoring opportunities there would be), and with Halladay coming up (and unlikely to out the ball in play well enough to do something meaningful), I would gladly have traded two outs for one run.
by dannijd on May 10, 2011 11:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I was assuming a double play and hoping that it wasn’t of the 1-2-3 variety
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." - Inigo
by DirtyWaters on May 10, 2011 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes. Where was Wilson Valdez when we really needed him?
by phillyinportland on May 11, 2011 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
By my calculation, it is closer than many people on here believe.
I put together a table of outcomes, and estimated average runs scored with estimated probabilities. The run estimates are guesses based on BaseballProspectus’s run expectation matrix, attempting to take full account of the hitting and pitching matchups to come, as well as the speed of the baserunners (Ibanez on 3rd, Francisco on 2nd, Orr on 1st).
For example, after a K, I have the Phillies scoring an average of 0.55 runs with Halladay and Rollins due up (instead of the 1.55 which is the 2010 average for bases loaded, one out). Some of the stuff I had to wildly guess at, such as the ratio of 1-2-3 GIDP verses run scoring GIDP (I thought it run-scoring was more likely). Your mileage may vary.
Exp….. p…….Event
2.30 0.050 Walk or HBP
0.55 0.350 K
0.55 0.106 Fly Out no run
0.15 0.085 GIDP (1-2-3 or similar)
1.40 0.090 Sac Fly
1.10 0.120 Run scoring GIDP
1.50 0.010 Run scoring Ground Out
0.55 0.015 Force out at home
2.30 0.060 1 Run Single
2.90 0.060 2 Run Single
3.20 0.022 2 run double
3.50 0.022 3 run double
3.80 0.001 Triple
4.20 0.009 Home Run
Some notes:
This table equates to Sardinha hitting .183/.224/.260 in the situation (counting the sac flys as ABs anyway).
I boosted JJ’s K rate to 35%, instead of 25% he has averaged the last two years.
BABIP is .279. GO/AO is 1.17
-———————————————————-
Bottom line result if you believe these estimates: Run expectation is 1.16 to start with, and it stays about the same after a run scoring GIDP (which yields about 1.1 runs). Ahead by one already in a low scoring game, the Phillies would probably be happy to take the sure thing, because there is not as much win expectancy from the multi-run outcomes.
The point of all this: Given that a run scoring GIDP is an ok event, Sardinha needed to be hacking at that first pitch, and not setting himself up to be a strikeout victim.
by Vaughn Haze on May 11, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Statistically I agree with your logic.
From a purely situational baseball perspective i disagree. Johnson had just walked the last two batters, the bases are loaded, and your weak hitting third string catcher is up. He’s taking the first pitch 9 times out of ten, and 10 times out of ten on a breaking ball. Johnson threw a called strike curve ball first pitch to Sardhina, it was simply a great pitch.
(I thought it was a fastball watching it live, but I see it was an 82 mph curve. I’m fine with him taking that.)
by Vaughn Haze on May 11, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
That eighth inning was graffiti on a masterpiece. Doc deserved better—though right now our pitchers are getting that a lot.
by dajafi on May 10, 2011 11:07 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
It wasn’t graffiti. Graffiti takes work, effort, and a minimal amount of thought.
That was bird shit dropping in through a recently broken window landing on a temporarily uncovered masterpiece in the middle of a workers’ strike during renovations at the Louvre.
You forgot the part where the artist contributed to the mess.
by dannijd on May 10, 2011 11:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You mean by begging the staff to replace the broken window, only to have them release the shitting flock of pigeons in an error?
I meant by assuming that the canvas was about six inches larger than it was, although the canvas definitely was all wrong to begin with.
by dannijd on May 10, 2011 11:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Awful again.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, fun!
by FuquaManuel on May 10, 2011 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
On the Left Coast they refer to it as "getting Cained".
Nomadic baseball fan, with no agenda other than observation/conversation/mass confusion/mass consumption. And annoying 09.
Prosecutor: "Jesus Christ, did ANYBODY tell the truth to the grand jury?"
Barry Bonds: "I did."
Prosecutor: "GAH!"
by victor frankenstein on May 11, 2011 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Uh huh. That’s more like accidentally using a 8mm brush when he clearly wanted to use a 3/8" brush. Minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor minor detail, in the grand scheme of things.
The Rollins error outweighs the “wild pitch”, the base hits, and everything else in that half frame.
What do you call walking the pitcher? (granted Rollins factored into that inning A’s well, A’s they should have got Coughlin out at second), but if Halladay does not walk Johnson, the errors in the eighth tie the game, not lose it.
by dannijd on May 10, 2011 11:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
your word complete mechanism must have known Jimmy was from the Oakland area
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." - Inigo
by DirtyWaters on May 10, 2011 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Stupid iPhone reaction to my typing about that team earlier today.
by dannijd on May 10, 2011 11:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Exhibit A: what dannijd sees.
Exhibit B: what rational people see.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, fun!
by FuquaManuel on May 10, 2011 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Wrong- I see the shitstorm that was the eighth (including a certain shortstop who deserves more than partial responsibility for both runs), but also the events that led to being tied in the eighth. However, in seeing the forest, I see that this team lost as a TEAM- nobody was clean tonight, and the failings of all contributed to this loss.
by dannijd on May 10, 2011 11:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Then you should avoid speaking in metaphor, because you are quite bad at conveying what you mean that way.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, fun!
by FuquaManuel on May 10, 2011 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and by the way, I’d say 8 IP and 1 ER is pretty fucking clean.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, fun!
by FuquaManuel on May 10, 2011 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
So would I- however, in a game where we talk about three true outcomes under a pitchers control, one of those outcomes played as much a part in why this team lost as Rollins’s error did, as each set up a sequence that cost the team a run on an evening in which the offense failed to capitalize on it’s opportunities.
by dannijd on May 11, 2011 12:06 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If the final score was 7-6 or whatever, then you could put some blame on Doc, but 1ER over 8IP, is a pretty damn good outing, walk to the pitcher or not.
Explain to me why (and please note that even I said that he pitched very well this evening), that a run scored by a baserunner put on base by him does not equate to Doc receiving some slice of the blame here?
by dannijd on May 11, 2011 12:19 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
How about this: Roy’s pitching WPA for the game was .099.
If there’s any blame he deserves towards this loss, it’s with his bat. Roy pitched spectacularly as usual.
by philsandthrills on May 11, 2011 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions
This is exactly what I meant by missing the forest for the tree.
Only one predisposed to irrationality would look at a performance in which the pitcher went 8 innings, allowed 1 earned run, and struck out 9 against just 2 walks and even consider using the word “blame”. Yeah, I’d prefer if Doc didn’t walk the pitcher in the third. I’d also prefer that my smartphone had a built in money printer. But at the end of the day, it’s still a smartphone that makes calls and has a bunch of other great features, and I’d never think to blame it for me not being able to print my own money.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, fun!
by FuquaManuel on May 11, 2011 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
dis phone...I muss has it
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." - Inigo
by DirtyWaters on May 11, 2011 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Why the hell do we have to assign “blame” here??! Jesus Christ they lost A GAME. ONE GAME. Against a VERY good pitcher.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Why the hell do we have to assign "blame" here?
I say this to my wife at least once a week
by Boundforbeach on May 11, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
wokka wokka wokka!
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on May 11, 2011 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
And so would any reasonable observer. To claim that Halladay (the artist) contributed to the mess is unfair, unless any earned run scored on a pitcher is his “mess.” What gives me optimism after this messy loss is I expect that Roy Halladay will turn this into a learning experience and go forward knowing that most games like this will end as victories.
by phillyinportland on May 11, 2011 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Roy Halladay doesn’t have “learning experiences.”
Learning experiences have Roy Halladays.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, fun!
by FuquaManuel on May 11, 2011 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Awful.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, fun!
by FuquaManuel on May 10, 2011 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions
For some reason, I torture myself by remembering this commercial at some point during each series against the Marlins. I am hoping by sharing my annoyance I will rid myself of it.
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." - Inigo
It is a most elusive fish!
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)
by bandwagonesque on May 10, 2011 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions
All I can say about this game is "Get well soon, Chooch"
If he’s there today, it’s a totally different ballgame. Most likely doesn’t K with the bases loaded nor does he allow that passed ball wild pitch in the 8th.
by FooFighter1124 on May 10, 2011 11:38 PM EDT reply actions
So, does Nunez’s “balk” move really have merit? Does he balk everytime he pitches? Mitch Williams seems to think so. Johnson is a really good pitcher. Uncanny that halladay walked him.
Utley, Ruiz, and Brown will all be up soon. Relax.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, fun!
by FuquaManuel on May 11, 2011 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Man. Imagine the lineup with Utley, Ruiz and Brown as the 6-7-8 hitters. I know that’s not what you meant, but man oh man.
Rollins SS
Polanco 3B
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Francisco/Ibanez/Mayberry LF
Brown RF
Victorino CF
Ruiz C
I’m salivating just thinking about it….
Per wOBA, Victorino has been our best hitter this year (someone on the thread last night pointed this out and I can’t remember who) and since Jimmy moved to the leadoff spot, he has been on fire.
My question is do you leave 1-4 as is and bat Utley behind Howard?
I am curious to see what the good folks here on TGP think should happen with the lineup when Ut returns.
by The Reddgie on May 11, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I think it’s a reasonable option. I also wouldn’t be against sliding Polly down in the order. Perhaps:
Vic
Rollins
Utley
Howard
Left field mish mash
Polly
Brown
Ruiz
Pitcher
Rollins
Utley
Polanco
Howard
Victorino
LF/RF
RF/RF
Ruiz
P
That’s what I would do…. I expect much the same, except with Utley third, Polly second
I like splitting Ut and Howard. My preference is to keep Vic’s speed at the top of the order, and put Polly behind Howard.
by The Reddgie on May 11, 2011 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
If you like splitting Utley and Howard because they’re both lefties, remember that Utley has essentially no platoon split. Career OPS is the same either way at .894, wOBA a bit higher vs. LHPs (.390 to .382).
Celebrating 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1962-2011
Those stats are against all lefties, right?
What about the lefty specialists that come in at the end of the game? How do they perform against those guys vs right handed relievers?
by The Reddgie on May 11, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Utleys career OBP is actually LOWER against RH startes than LH starters. situationaly, Utley hits lefties virtually identical to righties in any situation, though. LOOGY or not. splits are irrelevant with him
Im thinking more of other teams getting away with their LOOGY facing both Utley and Howard without having to face Polly in between. Splitting Ut and Howard would create a situation where other team’s manager would now have to manage: do they leave the LOOGY in to face Polly and risk getting burnt by Polly? Do they take the LOOGY out and put a RH reliever in to face Polly and then put another LOOGY in to face Howard?
Or Since Utley has no split, they could simply bring in the LOOGY after both Utley and Peanut both hit.
Then why do so many managers bother with bringing a lefty in to face him?
by dannijd on May 11, 2011 2:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Habit, doesn’t follow stats, having an off day, faith his guy can be successful in spite of stats, gut, perceived clutchiness of LOOGY, maybe Utley does have a bad record against that particular LOOGY, the Moon is appropriately in line with Venus, the Magic 8 ball said it was likely the best plan, etc.
For the same reason Charlie Manuel continues to bring in Romero or Bastardo to face Logan Morrison, even though he’s 2-2 with 2 RBI’s and 3 walks in 5 PA lifetime against phillies LH relievers.
Meanwhile against RH phillies relievers, he’s 0-5 with 3K’s and no walks…
on his career, Morrison has the following splits:
against RHP 265 .370 .500 .870 in 200or so AB’s
against LHP 347 .452 .442 .894 in 95 AB
his BB/K ratio is virtually identical. hits all his HR’s against righties, and averages more RBI’s against lefties…
It makes no sense… other than "thats what I’m supposed to do here…
Hm, I could’ve sworn I’d seen numbers indicating that, while Utley has no overall split (that he hits lefties well), he nevertheless was vulnerable to the LOOGY…. now I have to figure out how to determine that.
That was my thinking as well, but I am not sabremetrically smart enough to prove or disprove it.
Generally speaking, the reason LOOGY’s have roster spots is b/c they excel at getting lefties out. It just seems that we would be negating, or at the very least reducing, the effect a LOOGY will have by splitting up Ut and Howard.
the point is that a Loogy usually only affect the batter BEHIND howard, not in front, regardless of who hits 3rd between utley and Polanco.
and frankly, people put too much worth on the loogy arguement anyway. he’s coming in to face Howard regardless of who hits in front or behind him.
I guarantee that the first time we have a close game in the later innings once Ut is back in the lineup and the other team needs to get a couple outs, especially if men are on base, our opponent is going to bring in their LOOGY for both Ut and Howard. They aren’t going to wait till Howard gets up. If we split them, then the other team has to make a decision: for the LOOGY to face both, he has to get Polly out or you save him for Howard and Ut gets to face a reliever who won’t be as tough as the LOOGY.
So what?
I guess I see your logic to an extent, but so what?
Polly’s splits aren’t substantial over his career either. he’s a 300 .344 .396 .740 hitter against righties, and slightly better against lefties, over a much smaller sample.
You’re basically saying lets take a guy who has had 78% of his 6700 career AB’s as a two hitter, and looks (and statistically is showing that he is) uncomfortable in the 3 spot, and move him to the three hole so Chase Utley, who hits lefites as well as righties, won’t have to face a LOOGY, who may or may not be tougher to hit, once every 3 or 4 games?
sorry, don’t get it.
If I am sliding Polly down, I would put him behind Howard since he seems to be our best hitter w RISP:
Jimmy
Vic
Utley
Howard
Polly
Brown
Left fielder du jour
Chooch
Pitcher
by The Reddgie on May 11, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
No.
Chase Utley is your 3 hitter period. End of story, and Rollins leads off, when Utley hits third as long as Charlie Manuel manages this team.
Polanco is a natural 2 hitter. He’s best suited there.
How you split up 5-6-7 between the outfielders on any given day is up for debate. If it’s Ibanez and Brown in the corners against a LHP I can see experimenting with Vic in the 5 spot, but I like him lower in the order.
Heck, on nights when Lee or Hamels are pitching, I wouldn’t mind seeing this:
Rollins
Polanco
Utley
Howard
Francisco/Mayberry/Ibanez
Brown
Ruiz
Hamels/Lee
Victorino
You are putting Victorino way too far down in the lineup.
Victorino needs to bat in the top 5, maybe 6. He is hitting for too much average and power to have him at the bottom of a lineup (a place designated for the worst hitters on the team).
by dannijd on May 11, 2011 11:54 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Dannijd, no disrespect, but when you have 8 hitters in a lineup like this, someone has to bat 7th and 8th. Its not that cut and dry. The same could be said for Ibanez, Brown, Francisco or Mayberry.
Vic is hitting for average and power right now, but he’s also on pace to hit 25 HR’s and drive in 80 runs, and his slg. and ops are 50 points higher than anything he’s ever put up in his career. regression is gonna happen.
I’m all for experimenting with Victorino in the 5 spot, against LHP, cause his career numbers from the right side are much better than his numbers from the left,(look at them this year, and a case can be made for abandoning hitting left handed all together…) but he’s a higher average, high OBP type of player. Not a prototypical 5 hole hitter.
But against RHP, no way I hit Vic fifth.
The more I think about it, the more I agree with you. Vic may end up beig the best option in the 5 spot.
by Joecatz on May 12, 2011 11:51 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I agree Utley WILL bat 3rd, but he ought to bat 2nd, because, according to lineup optimization studies, Utley is actually the ideal #2 hitter on the team. Best hitters should bat 1,2,4, with an emphasis on OBP for 1 & 2, SLG for 4, followed by 3 & 5 (where I’d put Polanco & Victorino, respectively). (I’m assuming here that Rollins maintains his solid OBP going forward, though of course he may not.) (Also, the differences are admittedly fairly small in these kind of lineup changes, but if we’re talking about optimizing, we’re talking about optimizing. Polanco 2nd, Utley 3rd wouldn’t bother me, it’s just not what I’d do.)
I think it would be good for Utley bad for Polanco. The L-R-L split would be nice too, but in this case, I think its more about comfort than statistics.
Polly has had 6774 career AB’s. 5300 of them have been in the 2 hole. it’s where he’s comfortable. Look at the splits this season so far between batting 2nd and 3rd. granted its a SSS, but its like .429 avg and .929 ops batting 2nd, and .257 .524 hitting third. take babip into consideration, SSS, cool streak, hot streat, whatever… Polly is clearly more comfortable hitting 2nd.
Utleys career numbers in both slots are sick.
hitting 2nd: 169 games, 792 PA 317 .392 .535 .926
hitting 3rd 578 games, 2615 PA 294 .389 .522 .911
I agree that Vic is the most likely to get dropped when Ut comes back, I was just throwing a thought out there in the hopes of sparking a debate (looks like it worked). And I would bat Polly 3rd between Ut and Howard. Just my preference, I know Polly is a more natural 2nd hitter and Ut 3rd, I just put more weight into splitting the lefties then where they are perceived to be more comfortable.
I would put Vic 6th, with Ibanez batting 5th against RHP and Francisco.Mayberry 7th and then switch it when going against LHP.
When Brown gets promoted, revisit the lineup based on how Raul/Franny/Mayberry are performing.
Yeah. Just came here to tell you guys my thoughts on this Blanton guy. Dude sucks, amirite?
by philsandthrills on May 11, 2011 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Totally different note, but I was listening to Missanelli earlier today, and he was discussing Reyes and the possibility of the Phillies trying to acquire him after this year. And, when a caller brought up Michael Young as someone who should be acquired, he pretty much shot down the idea on every level. I was almost impressed.
by philsandthrills on May 11, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
That is a pleasant surprise.
Do you think the Reyes idea was prompted by the Rollins error last night? Not that it’s a totally baseless idea by any means (we even discussed it here a while back), but I have my ears pricked up for fan overrreaction.
Stark called in to basically tell Missanelli that there was no way the payroll would permit Reyes; he claimed the Met would be looking for 7/$142M or something close to that if I heard right.
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)
by bandwagonesque on May 11, 2011 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Other than Brown, I'm with you (although Victorino seems too far down in the order)
But Brown is far from a sure thing- he is a prospect, and a very good one, that is for sure, but to expect him to come out and be amazing at the dish right away is probably asking far too much of him- there is going to be a definite learning curve that is going to require patience.
by dannijd on May 11, 2011 11:51 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
we need a better 9 hitter
"There is no dark side in the moon, really. Matter of fact it's all dark."
by alcatraz0109 on May 11, 2011 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Or maybe this will post
There’s a bathroom on the right http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYnySGM9dQA
by phillyinportland on May 11, 2011 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Can J-Roll get a day off? Please?
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Clearly I meant a day off when there is a game scheduled. The guy has not had a day off all season.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
What does that have to do with J-Roll needing a day off?
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Creates the ability to give J-Roll a day off without having Orr and Valdez playing at the same time- the fielding would survive, but the last thing the lineup needs is another offensive black hole- Rollins has not been as sharp in the field as usual, but he has been swinging the bat (knock on wood).
by dannijd on May 11, 2011 9:33 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You are looking at it from a single game approach and not with the wide scope of an entire season.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
I am absolutely certain that this is exactly how Charlie is looking at things. This is always how Charlie looks at things. Despite saying publicly that he needs to do a better job of giving his guys a day off.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
You asked me when I thought it would happen- since Manuel is still making the decisions, why should we expect anything different now?
by dannijd on May 11, 2011 10:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Howard hasn’t had a day off either. But don’t expect either of them to get a breather until we hit the softer part of the schedule around Memorial day, regardless of when Utley returns (which will be NEXT WEDNESDAY, MAY 18th…)
Yeah, they both need a day off, I was just thinking more of Rollins due to him looking a bit lost every so often and him having been injured more in the recent past. He isn’t a kid anymore and could stand to get a day off, especially when the team has the next scheduled day off.
I get Charlie not wanting to weaken his lineup with it already being a big weak but again, he needs to think about their long term health as well.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Sure. But not when you’re playing against the team right behind you in the division, with a day off on thursday, followed by 14 straight against the Braves, Cardinals, Rockies, Rangers, and Reds.
It’s only May. But the next two weeks are huge. Rollins can rest against the Mets Nats or Pirates if he needs it, and I’m sure Howard will get a day off during a night day situation against a LHP.
And yet, he hasn’t rested against the Mets and Nats.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Of course not. we played them in the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th week of the season with off days around each series. I was referring to the stretch late May/early June coming up after we play 20 games in 21 days against arguably the best teams in the NL and the Rangers.
Sitting Howard or Rollins against any of these teams is just dumb.
Considering one game against any team in late May/early June to be so important as to not sit a player who badly needs an off day is just dumb.
by FearTheTurtIe on May 11, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
The ironman thing is more common for first basemen, though. Howard may be ok a little while longer without it.
by dannijd on May 11, 2011 10:50 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Here's all I can add from the game.
1. Josh Johnson is sick good in person. From half way up the lower level at least half his fastballs sounded like a gunshot hitting the catchers mitt in that half empty cavern of a stadium.
2. Halladay has a temper! You could hear his bad word when he walked Johnson too. He was still cursing after the inning into the dugout. Talk about a competitor. He was NOT pleased with himself.
3. When we left the bases loaded twice my wife said to me “that’s gonna come back and bite us in the ass” twice.
4. When Roy walked Johnson she said the same thing.
5. When Jimmy made the throwing error she looked at me made a biting motion with her teeth and said " bend over, here it comes.."
She continued to chomp the rest of the 8th inning. We all know what ensued…
So for those of you debating on whether to blame Halladay, or Rollins, or sardhina, or chooch for being hurt, or the offense for not coming through with RISP, or Josh Johnson for being Josh johnson and simply not allowing runs to cross the plate, DON’T.
This is all on my wife. I Got it. I’m taking her home today and she will do no harm this evening when YESTERDAY’S MESSIAH takes the hill.
by Joecatz on May 11, 2011 7:21 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I was thinking the same thing. I’ll do it tomorrow just for you. Dibs and Memolo love me. every now and then I call in to play “Truth or Anomaly” which is a take on yes/no.
I was totally kidding, but hey if you can get it in there, go for it.
I’ve called other shows on that channel before when they’re discussing the Phillies kind of suggesting I can slip in there as an “expert voice” and then they tell me they don’t like people plugging their blogs. Meh.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Next time Worley pitches, I’ll call in next day to make a case for “Night Owl”. I’ll throw a plug without telling em. they won’t care. but yeah, I could see where they would be pricky about that.
the Nite Owl patiently waits
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." - Inigo
by DirtyWaters on May 11, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: the base-loaded, no outs situation in the 2nd; it struck me that Johnson hitting Francisco was his big break. We’ve seen that happen before, where what should be a bad thing for the pitcher ends up helping him. Granted, it was on a 1-2 pitch (wasn’t it?), but Francisco still struck me as much more likely to bring home the run than any of the guys following him (though at that point, Ibanez was only at 2nd, so he’d have had to do more than merely putting the ball in play).
not really
At least, at the game, it felt like he was trying to pitch around him to get to Orr anyway, which I found strange cause Orr’s lifetime numbers against JJ coming in were really good. I felt like the walk to ORR was a bigger break than the walk to Ben.
yeah, really the combination of events: Johnson seems wild, hits Francisco, walks Orr… yet how many of us expected any contact from either Sardinha or Halladay following? Best luck would have been one of them happens to swing wildly on a fastball Johnson’s just trying to get over…
Not much you can do. If anything, they could have MAYBE been more selective after the two walks, but He threw a first pitch called strike on a curveball to Sardhina and dane was doomed once he was behind in the count. Can’t really fault a AAA catcher for not being able to connect behind in the count against Josh Johnson.
Halalday swung at a slider first pitch, but really, he was probably going up there guessing fastball and thinking he was swinging to put the ball in play and JJ caught him.
Rollins took the first two pitches, went after a fastball, knowing it was coming, and fouled it off. JJ caught him looking at a 2-1 slider called, and finished him with another one.
Dude is just good at managing the count, and not giving up runs. Seriously, after watching him live for the first time, on the same night as Halladay, I put him easily in the top 5 starting pitchers in the game right now.
Oh yeah. I’m not saying anything different. Just observing that the inning played into his hands that way. He still had to make the necessary pitches, and he did.
I actually thought the Orr walk was at least partially on purpose- he was bound and determined to not give Orr anything he could hit, and knew that the chances of Sardinha or Halladay getting the contact they would need to be successful was low, and then Rollins would have to get a hit to score a run, a risk he was willing to take.
by dannijd on May 11, 2011 11:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Don't think so....
He went after Orr first pitch fastball and was ahead in the count 0-1. came back again in the zone 3-1 with another fastball and challenged him. If he was giving him a pass, he wouldn’t have thrown a 3-1 called strike, he would have put it off the plate.
I can see where you would think that for sure, but I think it was more a case of Orr seeing 4-seam fastballs and not being a great 4-seam fastball hitter, and having a more patient eye in the AB.
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