J.C. Romero: A Simple Thing Made Extremely Difficult
by FuquaManuel on Jun 11, 2011 2:10 AM EDT
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PrintIf baseball players were only allowed to bat left handed, then J.C. Romero would be one of the best relief pitchers in the game. Against lefties this season (prior to last night's game), Romero has posted a 1.84 FIP and a 2.20 xFIP and has struck out 11.37 batters per 9 innings. All of this is excellent.
Thankfully, but perhaps unfortunately for J.C. Romero, the game has been integrated since 1947. Which is to say: right handed batters ARE allowed in Major League Baseball.
J.C. Romero is horrible against righties. If you are reading this post with children or the otherwise faint of heart present, I urge you to ask them to leave. What I am about to show you is extremely graphic and could be disturbing to some readers.
7.52, 2.00, 8.00. That is Romero's xFIP, K/9, and BB/9, respectively, against righties this season.
More intelligent people than I have been pointing out for some time now that, when used properly, Romero has a lot of value to this team. As anyone smart enough to know not to eat the silicon packets that come in shoeboxes can ascertain from the above data (J.C. ROMERO GOOD AGAINST LEFTIES, J.C. ROMERO REALLY REALLY BAD AGAINST RIGHTIES), properly using Romero would involve using him almost exclusively against lefties--or as a "LOOGY," as it is known in the parlance.
Apparently this is abundantly clear to every single person in the western hemisphere except for the one person who has absolute, dictatorial power to determine when J.C. Romero is used. That person is, of course, Our Fearless Manager Charlie Manuel. Before last night's game, J.C. Romero had faced 26 left handed batters and 43 right handed batters. And then last night, a 7-0 laugher was made unnecessarily close, in part, because Romero was left in the game to face two righties (after walking the first batter he faced; a lefty).
The lesson here is that on his own Charlie Manuel cannot be expected to use Romero in a way that maximizes his value and limits the amount of damage he is able to do. All of our fantasies about him being deployed almost exclusively against lefties are moot. The fact that Romero is good against lefties is little more than an airy abstraction, because in practice Manuel has shown an impressive aptitude for using him in exactly the way he shouldn't be used. This pattern of improper usage predates this season, too. From 2008 through 2010, Romero faced 240 lefties and 259 righties. Romero has never been good against righties, for his career he has a 5.41 xFIP against them. At this point, it is not something that continuing to pitch to them can heal.
Something needs to change. If Manuel cannot make what should be an obvious adjustment to how he uses Romero on his own, he should be instructed to do so by his direct superior. If he refuses to comply, then (as I said elsewhere) for the same reason we do not let children have guns, Ruben Amaro should not let Charlie Manuel have JC Romero on his roster.
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Good articke, but may be Charlie does NOT like JC
but can’t get rid of him because of Ruben?? Just saying.
Can I get an AMEN?!?!
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jun 11, 2011 8:48 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
The most surprising statistic in my opinion is not the shitty BB and K rates against righties, nor is it the heartburn inducing xFIP, but rather just the sheer number of right-handed hitters that Romero has faced over the past few seasons. Inexcusable.
It also strikes me – and this is a visual thing – don’t know if the stats back me up or not – that Romero does his best when deployed as a LOOGY and when the bases are empty, regardless of outs. If there are men on base, then his effective as a LOOGY goes down a little bit. Again, this is just an impression – and if the numbers show otherwise, I will gladly take my correction.
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effectiveness* as a LOOGY, it should say.
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by WanderingMoses on Jun 11, 2011 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I dunno. He always pitches from the stretch, so I don’t see how that would happen.
I think it’s probably more subjective. Even against lefties, JC walks a fair number of guys (as he did last night). Those walks seem especially frustrating when there are men on base. But he makes up for those walks in other areas, mainly by never giving up any hits. One needs to adjust one’s mental calculus – just because pitcher X is walking Y% more guys doesn’t mean he’s giving up Y% more baserunners or recording Y% fewer outs.
Specifically, he has a 5.68 BB/9 vs. lefties this year, which is quite bad (3.99 BB/9 career). But he makes up for it by doing this:
K/9: 8.26 career, 11.37 this year
GB: 66.0% career, 78.6% this year
I suppose this may be something for the game log to figure out statistically whether he does better with the bases cleared than with runners on – stretch or not.
Anyway, thanks for the clarification. Those numbers are high, which I hope remain there, but I suppose the clothes will be stripped away if those numbers normalize while retaining the high walk rate.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Jun 11, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Sure, just as if the walk rate normalizes and the other categories don’t, he’ll be the best LOOGY in major league baseball. All of the categories are equally likely to normalize. The ‘11 figures are still based on a fairly small sample so they’re volatile. What isn’t based on a small sample are his career stats: 3.99, 8.26, and 66.0%
Right, hopefully Charlie and co. get a hint as to using him exclusively against lefties. Oh to have another NL manager who would bat three lefties in a row. Only Charlie. Too bad Romero can’t pitch against his own team.
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by WanderingMoses on Jun 11, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Manuel has never been the best in game manager. I always though his best work was behind closed doors or one on one with players. However lately I have been worried about that too.
Not the only one. I always thought he was on the overated side of things. The things he does and does not do are mind boggling to say the least. The fact he is still clueless on how to manage a bullpen is downright scary.
I do feel like most of the errors that Manuel makes are pretty common errors around the league.
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by WholeCamels on Jun 12, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
In todays day and age with statistical analysis what it is, it is absolutely disgusting and in my opinion unforgivable that a manager could and would chose to use someone in a fashion that is very clearly not suited to that person’s strenghts. It’s ignorant. I don’t know what other word to use. It’s one thing to stick with a guy who is going through a rough patch, as much as that frustrates me from time to time…2009 Brad Lidge, I can at least come to grips with it. But JC Romero has a track record of being terrible against righties and yet Charlie and the ever useless Dubee seem to be ok throwing him to the wolves so to speak.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
by EREX21 on Jun 11, 2011 9:29 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
it bears repeating again
Even against lefthanders, Romero has been ineffective. Lefties are 5 for 17 (.294) with three walks and five strikeouts. Part of the issue could be that Romero has faced righthanders 62.5 percent of the time, suggesting extreme misuse. Dubee said that doesn’t matter.
“He hasn’t gotten too many people out,” Dubee said. “We need him to get better.”
http://articles.philly.com/2011-05-28/sports/29594112_1_romero-phillies-notes-charlie-manuel
What a total asshole.
And again, as FM has already pointed out, Romero has not really been ineffective against lefties. He just had a high BABIP against them when that article was written (probably still does).
First, I agree with the thrust of what everyone is saying. Using JC like this is idiotic. And Dubee should be fired.
However, where I might disagree slightly is whether or not this is “intentional.” I think it is, and thus Dubee’s statement. I mentioned last night in the thread that Charlie (and maybe Dubee??) likes to have a set rotation. He has certain people for certain innings. Note, I did not say “certain situations” but certain “innings”. The LOOGY role doesn’t quite fit. But, you say, that is what Romero is good at! True. But Charlie had just emptied his bullpen, his normal save guy was not available apparently, and the guy he thought would do the 8th (Truck) imploded. In fact, if Madson wasn’t available, I’m guessing Truck would have pitched as long as he could have (also a mistake, but not the point here). Truck messing up required plan B…Charlie looked who was available, he saw only rookies and JC and made his choice.
This theory jibes exactly with the Dubee comment above. JC has to get better, since we know the roles we want from our bullpen and he doesn’t fulfill them. Now, I know a lot of you don’t have work or managerial experience, so let me give you an example. I was a chief teller at a branch of a financial institution. That branch was the most successful in the history of the company (believe it or not, I’m not joking). Now, this never happened, but let’s imagine I had a teller who was really, really great with customers, but could not balance his cash drawer. Some banks would have found a role for that guy, after all he attracts customers. I would have been very, very, very unhappy, and in my role as “pitching coach” to the branch manager, would have said to the employee “I don’t care if you are great with customers if your cash drawer never balances. Get better or else.” At some point, I would have asked the manager to “DFA” the teller. Since that is the way I ran my teller line. Btw, did I tell you we were a very successful branch?
The idiocy is not that they are using him wrong, it is that they expect him to change. In my analogy, the teller has been working for years at lots of branches, and most banks put him in customer service (a LOOGY role in my bank). JC needs to be in a place where he can succeed. IMO, it cannot be in Philly anymore. I am not condoning Cholly/Dubee’s use of pitchers, just that if that is their management style, JC can’t work.
Time for him to be DFA’d so that Cholly does not think he can be “rehabilitated.”
This is my Cerberus .sig, while the regular one is on the DL.
That’s fair enough, but I think the difference here is that Charlie and Dubee’s philosophy of bullpen management isn’t unusualy successful. It was for about a month in 2007 and all of 2008, but otherwise it isn’t anything special. I can understand what you’re saying if a player can’t fit into the roles used in an overall very successful system, but if the system isn’t particularly successful, then it’s the system that should change.
I understand where you are coming from, but this misinterprets how most organizations work. There are no perfect organizations. The very best have a critical weakness somewhere. The trick part is to avoid that weakness being in an area of key advantage against its competitors. Moreover, in most organizations, the ironic part is that the weakness is usually a “flip side” negative to the strengths that make it successful.
We would like Cholly to be exceptional in his managerial skills. But part of his management style is consistency, avoiding highs and lows. This carries over into how he wants to push-button manage his pitchers. That consistency has helped avoid a panic-button mentality, most notably in 2010, when many of us thought the Phils were cooked early in the season. That same desire for consistency has created a flipside weakness in how he uses his pitchers sometimes.
Now, the problem is, pitching is not his area of strength, and his “chief teller” (Dubee) should be giving him contrarian advice when necessary in order to avoid minor weaknesses becoming critical. In this, I am with j reed (although perhaps for different reasons) in that I think Dubee has not done his job.
This is my Cerberus .sig, while the regular one is on the DL.
If he refuses to comply, then (as I said elsewhere) for the same reason we do not let children have guns, Ruben Amaro should not let Charlie Manuel have JC Romero on his roster.
Seems a little harsh to punish Romero for Charlie’s stupidity. On the other hand, I guess he’ll get paid either way and maybe he’d get picked up by a team whose manager has a brain.
It might be harsh, but as I said, as long as Romero is used improperly, his skill against lefties exists only in the abstract and he is just simply a very bad pitcher. A very bad pitcher doesn’t really warrant a major league roster spot.
It sucks for him, but frankly, I’d rather see him DFAed than continue to face more than 3 righties for every 2 lefties he faces.
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by FuquaManuel on Jun 11, 2011 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
One of the more frustrating aspects of this situation is that while I’m certainly not a big fan of the ongoing LaRussazation of bullpens, with the sheer number of innings the Phillies’ starters throw, the club actually can afford to dedicate a roster spot to a pure LOOGY.
by PhillyFriar on Jun 11, 2011 10:49 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
just not one with a 5.68 BB/9 against lefties
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." - Inigo
by DirtyWaters on Jun 11, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah it seems that this another instance of the ever so unimaginative “fail therapy” but one inwhich its woefully negligent misapplication is effectively destroying a person’s career. Fucked up.
There is some roster value in the sense that we keep Romero from being on somebody else’s roster, where he would be deployed against The Lefties™.
And we would be paying him
Roughly $3000 per batter for the rest of the season.
Because we all KNOW what’s gonna happen if we dfa him. Someone in the thick of it will pick him up as a loogy, and at some we are going to pay JC Romero roughly $9,000 to destroy some combination of Utley, Howard, rollins, victorino, brown and ibanez in a single back to back to back inning in the postseason.
Seriously. It. Is. Going. To. Happen.
by Joecatz on Jun 11, 2011 11:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And sonar can Tia into perspective a little more
Dollar and sense wise. ( assuming a rough $3,000 per plate appearance based on batters faced on average as a Philly, and his salary)
We’ve paid him About $135,000 to face righties and 81,000 to face lefties.
He’s cost us 24 grand on walks to righties, and we paid him 6 grand for strikeouts.
We paid him the same 24 grand against lefties for k’s, and it only cost us 12 grand in base on balls.
33 grand in base hits to righties, 15 grand to lefties.
by Joecatz on Jun 11, 2011 11:30 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Jesus sure type.
How Did that subject come from just to put the dollars and cents into perspective.
by Joecatz on Jun 11, 2011 11:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Thank goodness you didn’t use last year’s numbers. Then I’d be depressed.
by Wet Luzinski on Jun 13, 2011 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
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