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Phillies Who Lost the WAR

Just as the names Utley, Howard, Rollins, Werth and Victorino immediately conjure up happy associations of big hits delivered and games won, another set—Perez, Bell, Helms, Nunez, Taguchi, Bruntlett, Bako—quickly generate a churn in the guts, a gastric echo or memory of scoring opportunities squandered for want of physical talent and/or mental acuity. The experience of watching Michael Martinez in the Phillies’ lineup for Sunday’s enervating 2-0 loss to the Mariners got me thinking about this second group, and wondering about which of the team’s position players has been least valuable over the last half-dozen or so seasons.

But were these guys as bad in real time as they are in memory? With the help of Baseball-Reference.com, I thought I’d take a look. Here are the Phillies’ worst position players in each season The Good Phight has been around, based on Wins Above Replacement (WAR), as calculated by B-R.

2005: Tomas Perez (-0.8 WAR): What I remember killed me about Perez that year was how often he got to pinch-hit (52 times! He hit .140/.260/.140), a travesty given the 12 runs below average he generated in 176 plate appearances. On defense, though, he was both versatile and effective, scoring at three runs above average. David Bell was even more gruesome offensively in 617 plate appearances: 23 runs below average at the plate. But his five above in the field left him at -0.5 overall. Then again, he made more than seven times the salary of Perez, and his presence forced Placido Polanco (+1.7 WAR in about two months) out of town through a June trade; had Polanco become the Phillies’ regular third baseman five years earlier than he did, the team likely would have broken its long playoff drought in 2005. No, I'm not over it. 

Star-divide

2006: Abraham Nunez (-1.8). Just a staggeringly bad offensive performance from the man we called No-Hit: he was a hard-to-believe 27 runs worse than average at the plate (in a horrifying 369 plate appearances), and four runs worse than average defensively. Yet he returned to suck again, albeit not quite as badly, the following season.

2007: Wes Helms (-1.1). Signed to add pop at third base in a move initially applauded by some dumb-assed bloggers (*raises hand*), Helms was sub-replacement at the plate (308 PA), in the field and on the bases. Nunez hit worse (18 runs below average compared to Helms’ 14), but added enough value with the glove to come in at -0.3 WAR overall.  Helms came back for 2008, but just barely; he was sold to the Marlins (for, if I recall correctly, literally nothing) on April 5, and didn’t register an appearance in the handful of games he suited up for the Phils. I’ve always wondered whether or not he got a ring.

2008Eric Bruntlett (-0.6). Rarely has a guy who played this badly garnered so much love; ascribe it to, one Brunt’s truly epic beard, and two, his propensity to attach himself to wonderful moments, most notably the game-winning runs he scored in Games 3 and 5 of the World Series. But the guy wasn’t real good: 14 runs below average with the stick (238 PA; how did that happen?), basically break-even on the bases and with the leather. The glow of those runs, though, brought him back in 2009, when he really showed us something. Not something good, mind. 

2009: Bruntlett (-1.5). The good news here was that Bruntlett only got 118 plate appearances in which to hit .171/.224/.238; the bad news was that this still was enough for 12 runs below average of offense, and that his fielding added another negative seven runs to the ledger. Again, though, what’s your one memory of Bruntlett from 2009? The unassisted triple play against the Mets. Of course. Mine too. Which kind of annoys me, to be honest.

2010: Juan Castro (-1.4). Bruntlett with less good timing, though again what you probably remember about Juan is his spin move in making the play to complete Roy Halladay’s perfect game. Still, he managed to rack up 13 batting runs below average in just 136 plate appearances, and minus four runs fielding. Happily, he was waived mid-season; Wilson Valdez, who replaced him, came in 1.7 wins above replacement, his -11 batting runs more than compensated by a team-high 13 defensive runs above average.

2011: Valdez (-0.7). But Exxon seems on a Bruntlettian path in his second season with the Phillies, his team-worst WAR supported by his minus seven run performance each with bat and glove. Interestingly, the next least valuable Phillie is Raul Ibanez (-0.5), who’s four runs below average at the plate and six down in the field, and has 116 more plate appearances than Valdez. To be sure, Martinez has packed a lot of sucking into his 64 plate appearances, at six offensive runs below average, but adequacy on the bases and in the field has him at -0.3 WAR overall.  

Pretty much inevitably, some guys will come in below replacement level. What's mildly troubling is, one, when they come back the next year, as several Phillies on this list have, and two, that our truly lousy guys seem actually worse than those of certain lesser teams. For instance, I looked at the Mets' WAR totals over the past few seasons; their low in 2008 was Damien Easley's -0.6, Ramon Martinez's -0.8 (in just 44 PA!) the next year, and Alex Cora's -1.1 last year, each equal to or less egregious than the Phillies' worst position guy. The moral seems to be that an offense can overcome a Valdez or a Bruntlett, so long as its Utleys and Werths are delivering the goods. 

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And did you look to see if our worst guys get more plate appearances than other teams? It seems that way, but that could just be the frustration of watching their plate appearances.

by David S. Cohen on Jun 20, 2011 2:24 PM EDT reply actions  

I don’t particularly care for these strolls down memory lane.

What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.

by doubleh on Jun 20, 2011 2:29 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Upsetting to reconsider Abe Nunez, or just looking backward in general is not interesting? Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it…

Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."

by RememberthePhitans on Jun 20, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I meant Nunez and the like. It would also seem that the Phillies are condemned to repeat the same mistakes, eh?

What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.

by doubleh on Jun 20, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Has Valdez really been that bad in the field this year? I was under the impression he was good with the leather.

"Learning to eat soup with a knife"

by h2o_34_35_44 on Jun 20, 2011 3:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Yep, he’s been absolutely terrible. I think the difference is that he’s no longer playing SS, where his arm seemed to play better, as compared to working mostly at 2B and 3B this year.

by philsandthrills on Jun 20, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah, the Phillies negative defensive rating, at least according to Fangraphs, is due almost entirely to Ibanez and Valdez; the rest of the team is either above average (Vic, Polanco, Utley, Francisco) or right around average, give or take

by yolacrary on Jun 20, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m sure it’s been taken into account with the WAR factor but, if you add in the fact that a botched play on defense forces your starter to throw more pitches even if it’s just the next batter that pulls away from his WAR correct?

"Learning to eat soup with a knife"

by h2o_34_35_44 on Jun 20, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t understand your question. Can you clarify what you mean?

by yolacrary on Jun 20, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can't figure out how to explain without an example.....

Cole has a WAR of X … that factors in his IP / Pitching stats / batting stats / fielding stats.
With 2 outs Raul botches a ball in left …. runner reaches 2nd on the error
Cole than walks the next batter on 8 pitches
Cole than strikes out the next batter with 6 pitches
Cole has now thrown 14 extra pitches (an innings worth). Will that bad fielding factor into Cole’s WAR considering what happened was beyond his control and, his outing has been shortened from call it 8 innings to 7?

"Learning to eat soup with a knife"

by h2o_34_35_44 on Jun 20, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not sure this is true of all WAR systems, but some of them are based on component results, i.e. GB/LD/FB per BF.

by phatj on Jun 20, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

It depends. BB-reference WAR, which is based solely around runs allowed vs. replacement would probably have a negative effect, as the inning pitched would be lower, and thus the total difference in runs between the pitcher and the replacement level pitcher would be lower.

Fangraphs WAR, which is based around FIP, would also probably be lower, but it might not be, as it’s based around rate stats like K/9, BB/9, and HR/9. Thus, hits do not affect a pitchers WAR, beyond giving greater opportunities for strikeouts and walks and home runs. Of course, the difference in innings would again be present, but it wouldn’t be significant.

by philsandthrills on Jun 20, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

If I understand your question right, I think the answer is No: Cole’s stats (and therefore WAR) are taken at face value — they are not adjusted to account for the “unearned” walk and 14 pitches.

Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011

by schmenkman on Jun 20, 2011 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

So what I’m getting at is since it has been brought up that the rotation is carrying this team and has an unbelievably high WAR… one could argue that it should be higher due to the plays in the field that should have been made that weren’t.

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2011/6/9/2200115/what-team-do-the-phillies-resemble#storyjump

"Learning to eat soup with a knife"

by h2o_34_35_44 on Jun 20, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think I get your point that the pitchers, at least the starters, are doing the job while the rest of the team in the field is missing some plays that should have been made. But is it the case that Phillies’ pitchers are any worse off than pitchers on other teams? Last time I looked the Phillies as a team were the top-rated defensive team for fielding percentage, fewest errors, and fewest unearned runs allowed. That doesn’t mean I think they are the best team defensively, just that as far as those stats go they are very good – but I find it hard to assume that because somebody’s rankings has the Phillies in the bottom half that we are expected to agree that the Phillies are a below average team defensively.

by phillyinportland on Jun 20, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Other stats do indicate that they are probably below average on defense. For instance, their BABIP allowed on groundballs is decently above league average, which is concerning.

by philsandthrills on Jun 20, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Those three things pretty much all measure the same thing, and are extremely poor measures of team defense.

by phatj on Jun 20, 2011 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe I’m looking at this backwards, but wouldn’t you say that hypothetically the pitcher with the best ERA isn’t necessarily the best pitcher in the league by any means but he certainly isn’t below average, is he? Is there that much luck tied in that a pitcher could be leading the league in ERA and still be below average somehow? So, that’s where I start to think that, okay, even if the Phillies don’t get to as many balls as other teams do – and aside from left field I don’t know that there’s a lot of difference there – if they keep making the plays without errors when they have the chance, how can they slip to a below average team defensively. The metrics could show that, but something seems out of proportion if that is the case.

by phillyinportland on Jun 20, 2011 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

A ball that drops in front of an outfielder like Ibanez that, say, Crawford would catch is not usually an error. Or a ball that Ibanez foolishly dives for is now a double or triple, instead of just a single, where Crawford either catches it or plays it on the hop.

A ball in the hole that Valdez doesn’t get to, but Utley does (because he has more range, and/or is smarter about positioning), is scored a single, looks innocent enough. But it adds up to additional baserunners, fewer outs made. The Phillies this year are either below average, as a collective, or well below average in converting batted balls to outs, even though they are above average in converting balls they get to into outs.

Does that make sense?

by yolacrary on Jun 20, 2011 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Modern players are extremely adept at turning balls they reach into outs, or at least avoiding errors. The best fielding percentage at SS so far this year is owned by Tulowitzki, at .992. The worst, among players with at least 200 defensive innings, is Renteria at .940. That means that Tulowitzki is only about 5% more adept at turning balls he reaches into outs than Renteria.

There isn’t any perfect way to measure range, but my gut tells me that the difference in range between the best and worst fielders is a hell of a lot more than 5%.

by phatj on Jun 20, 2011 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Meant to reply to phillyinportland.

by phatj on Jun 20, 2011 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks to yolacrary, phatj and philsandthrills. When watching I’ll have to keep my fingers crossed that they continue to cleanly field the balls they get to and hope that they don’t miss too many that other fielders would get to. And I will be pleased that even with limitations in the field the team is giving up fewer runs than any other team – right now it’s about one run per week better than the next best team, the Braves. That 5% figure is interesting because that’s very close to the gap between the Phillies and the Braves in runs allowed per game. The “best” and “worst” teams at run prevention are apart by a figure of over 120 runs or over 33%.

by phillyinportland on Jun 20, 2011 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

That 5% figure would only figure in to the comparison between the Phils and Braves if the Phillies overall defense were equivalent to the worst shortstop in the majors (in terms of fielding percentage), while the Braves were equivalent to the best. No entire team is ever that bad or that good, of course.

At any rate, the RA/G wouldn’t necessarily correlate with fielding percentage, but the differential between ERA and RA would.

by phatj on Jun 20, 2011 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's charlie's fault not raul's

Charlie should have seen the error and never let him come out to start the inning.

by Joecatz on Jun 20, 2011 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

A complicating factor is that GBs convert to outs about 98ish percent of the time. FBs that are playable for outs are almost always outs with a much lower rate of errors. Groundballs make up about 85% of errors. A high-GB pitcher will always produce more unearned runs than a FB pitcher. Not accounting for the higher “unearned run” cost that inevitably comes with a GB pitcher (whether or not it is his “fault” it still happens — think strict liability here) is undercounting the “cost” of a GB pitcher. Botched plays should count against the pitchers, since it gives a fair accounting of the true cost of the playing style.

That said, the benefits of GB far outweigh the minor increased cost of errors, so this is not an indictment of the GB pitching style — just a minor adjustment at the fringes.

Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."

by RememberthePhitans on Jun 20, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s according to UZR, though. Dewan’s plus minus system seems to absolutely hate the Phillies this year.
Jimmy Rollins is -10, Howard is -14, Valdez is a -2 at SS, a -3 at 3B, and a -9 at 2B, Ibanez is -7, Polanco is -3.
The only guys who are positive are Utley at +2, and Ben Francisco at +5.

Seriously, it’s crazy how bad that system rates our defense.

by philsandthrills on Jun 20, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I’ve noticed the discrepancy…. I suppose I ignore Dewan because it doesn’t pass the smell test. I have no trouble believing, based, um, “watching the games”, that Rollins, for example, has lost a step or two in the field and now is around average, but I do have trouble believing he’s 10 runs below average…. and Howard has mostly been ok; he strikes me as an average-fielding first baseman who has troubles throwing, but 14 runs below average? eh…

by yolacrary on Jun 20, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s just weird. There’s absolutely no way in which Jimmy Rollins or Ryan Howard have been worse at fielding than Ibanez has. Any system that comes up with that is just flat out wrong. I like Dewan’s system and think it makes sense, but in this case, something is just going wrong.

by philsandthrills on Jun 20, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

This, in a nutshell, is why I don’t trust any defensive statistics. Seems like there’s as much noise as signal in all of them.

by phatj on Jun 20, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

But you have to evaluate defense based on something. You might get a general feel for how players are on defense by watching, but there’s no way you can make a truly neutral judgement.

by philsandthrills on Jun 20, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I think Tom Tango’s fan scouting report does a pretty good job on this, as far as coming up with results that are plausible without being simply reiterations of conventional wisdom.

by perfectdepth on Jun 20, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

But even this system seems to be very subjective. I mean, how can a fan, watching only what the camera presents them, know how well a player positions himself (one of Utley’s best attributes) and something which this system seems to totally ignore.

by philsandthrills on Jun 20, 2011 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s purely subjective, of course. Its advantage is that it’s an aggregate of a lot of subjective opinions so truly outlandish ones don’t move the needle much.

by phatj on Jun 20, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah, I think that’s what makes it a useful endeavor. obviously it’s far from a perfect system (as are UZR, TZ, +/-, et al.), but I think it’s good to refer to as another data point, especially when one of those systems comes up with a result that appears to be an outlier.

by perfectdepth on Jun 20, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Defensive rating systems should also add extra points for jump throws, too. To my knowledge, only the Gold Glove™ system does this. All others are, therefore, inherently flawed.

Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."

by RememberthePhitans on Jun 20, 2011 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Isn’t that the system that “corrects” for the Pinstripe factor?

by Phrozen on Jun 20, 2011 8:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Yeah. I wish some of these systems would report on the confidence interval. I would be a lot happier with "Jimmy Rollins has been -10 (+10/-10) runs on defense this year.

by phatj on Jun 20, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

in small sample sizes this year, he’s been pretty bad. -3.0 UZR at second, -2.3 at third, -0.5 at short.

but, and I know I say this a lot, those numbers really should not be taken too seriously, as UZR fluctuates a lot in small samples. before 2011, Valdez was +1.7 UZR at second (406 innings), +2.1 at third (83 innings), and +7.6 at short (1,194 innings); if you regressed his ‘11 ratings toward his previous performance, you’d most likely get a more accurate measurement.

by perfectdepth on Jun 20, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m wondering if He wouldn’t be a better option in LF. I’m sure he can’t do any worse than Raul has been defensively and, his bat while may not be an upgrade would at very least be a RH.

"Learning to eat soup with a knife"

by h2o_34_35_44 on Jun 20, 2011 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

No. Just no. Raul is bad offensively, but Valdez is absolutely terrible. Being RH really adds nothing, as it’s not like he hits righties or lefties well. He just sucks against both of them.

by philsandthrills on Jun 20, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ibanez is better vs. lefties

(not saying much, but still)

OPS vs. lefties for the past two years:

Valdez ..610 in 2010, .671 in 2011
Ibanez .728 in 2010, .724 in 2011
Lg Avg: .734 in 2010, .699 in 2011

Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011

by schmenkman on Jun 20, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tomas Perez gave good pie

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jun 20, 2011 4:03 PM EDT reply actions  

not sure if comment is sexual in nature

do you poop on parties professionally, or do you just do it as a hobby?

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jun 20, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

explore in your mind

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jun 20, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

A great read, David, albeit a slightly depressing one. Makes me think a European soccer-style relegation system (based on WAR, of course) should be instituted so that the “when they come back the next year” problem doesn’t happen.

by PhillyFriar on Jun 20, 2011 5:03 PM EDT reply actions  

I don’t understand the negativity.

by Sisko on Jun 20, 2011 10:23 PM EDT reply actions  

It’s an off day.

by phatj on Jun 20, 2011 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think it’s topical, given yesterday’s lineup.

by philsandthrills on Jun 20, 2011 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

What came first, the manager or the GM?

by Wet Luzinski on Jun 20, 2011 10:32 PM EDT reply actions  

I may be a little late

This was touched on for pitchers but can anyone shed some light on BB-R WAR vs. fangraphs WAR as far as position players? Ibanez for example is rated about twice as poorly on fangraphs. Is it the fielding metrics used?

by FanSince1993 on Jun 21, 2011 1:34 PM EDT reply actions  

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