This Week's Pitching Probables (June 21-26, 2011)

by taco pal on Jun 20, 2011 11:25 PM EDT

The weekly chart of pitching probables returns. I think most pitchers now have large enough statistical samples to make this a worthwhile exercise.

Day	Pitcher	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	GB%	LD%	FB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA

Tuesday	Halladay	15	15	112.1	9.13	1.12	0.56	.308	52.8	16.5	30.7	7.4%	2.56	2.15	2.31	2.57
	McClellan	12	11	72.2	4.58	2.48	1.24	.258	54.3	16.7	29.0	14.1%	3.96	4.62	3.95	4.51

Wednesday	Lee*	15	15	104.0	9.61	2.08	0.69	.313	43.7	21.5	34.8	8.2%	3.12	2.56	2.62	2.86
	Lohse	14	14	97.0	5.20	1.76	0.74	.246	45.3	18.1	36.6	7.3%	2.88	3.51	3.72	4.27

Thursday	Oswalt	12	12	69.1	5.32	2.34	0.65	.294	48.0	16.3	35.7	6.2%	3.37	3.65	4.05	4.47
	Carpenter	15	15	98.2	7.11	2.19	0.91	.327	45.3	23.4	31.3	10.1%	4.47	3.50	3.33	3.81

Friday	Worley?	7	5	29.0	6.83	3.72	0.62	.316	42.6	18.1	39.4	5.4%	3.41	3.67	4.23	4.48
	Moscoso	7	5	30.0	3.60	4.20	0.90	.228	23.5	20.6	55.9	5.3%	3.30	4.95	5.81	6.83

Saturday	Hamels*	15	15	104.0	8.91	1.64	0.43	.266	54.1	15.0	30.8	6.1%	2.51	2.20	2.47	2.67
	Cahill	16	16	100.0	6.66	3.78	0.81	.275	55.5	19.7	24.7	12.2%	3.24	3.96	3.63	4.05

Sunday	Halladay	15	15	112.1	9.13	1.12	0.56	.308	52.8	16.5	30.7	7.4%	2.56	2.15	2.31	2.57
	Outman*	5	5	28.2	3.77	3.45	0.31	.258	36.8	17.2	46.0	2.5%	3.14	3.71	4.85	5.58

There's some guesswork involved here, as usual. For instance, the Phils could choose Kyle Kendrick to be their temporary fifth starter going forward (in Joe Blanton's continuing absence) instead of Vance Worley. Also, they could flip Hamels and the fifth starter, since Hamels will have four days' rest as of Friday.

Now here's a thought, and hear me out before you go nuts. Could choosing Kendrick over Worley actually be in the Phillies' interest? No, really, I'm serious.

Note that I am not saying that I think Kendrick is better than Worley. I'm fairly confident that he is not, and I'm even more confident that Worley will be better than him in future seasons (not to mention cheaper). But look: Kendrick's 2011 xFIP isn't that much worse than Worley Rookie Edition's (4.55 to 4.23). KK's actually been pitching pretty decently of late, believe it or not (3.30 xFIP since June 1 in 15.0 IP, sub-4 xFIP since May 1 in 33.3 IP). Admittedly, SIERA is much less kind to him (5.18), but I think there's at least enough uncertainty there to make it a legitimately close call as to which guy is better as of right now in June 2011.

Well, so what, you might ask. Even if Worley's only slightly better right now, why not go with the guy who's slightly better? Well here's the thing: The downside to putting Kyle Kendrick in the rotation is that you'll have Kyle Kendrick in the rotation. But the upside to putting Kyle Kendrick in the rotation is that you won't have Kyle Kendrick in the bullpen. You could instead bring up a reliever from Lehigh Valley, and there's quite a selection there. Here are the FIPs (sorry, no xFIPs or SIERAs available, as far as I know) of the most-often-used relievers up in Allentown: Perez 4.00, Zagurski 2.93, Schwimer 2.93, Mathieson 2.72, Grilli 2.64, Carpenter 1.88. (I know Mathieson just got moved to the rotation, but it's only been one game.) Now, maybe you don't believe any of these guys will be able to translate their current success to the majors, not even in proportion to whatever the minor league equivalency is this year for the International League. But there's no way you can actually know that. The only way to find out for sure is to try.

Let's just say hypothetically that Drew Carpenter could come up and give the team around a 3.5 luck-neutral ERA right now. Let's also say hypothetically that Worley's "really" a 4.2 and Kendrick's "really" a 4.6. Is is better to have a 4.2 starter with a 4.6 reliever, or a 4.6 starter with a 3.5 reliever? Beats me, but I think it's a question that's at least worth considering. (And yes, I know the best option of all would be to pair the 4.2 starter with the 3.5 reliever, but let's pretend that option isn't available.)

Anyway, here are some other random thoughts and observations:

- Kyle McClellan seems pretty similar to Jake Westbrook. Get ready for a ultra frustrating groundball fest.

- I don't know much about this Guillermo Moscoso and I realize it's a very small sample, but he appears to be sucking so far.

- Josh Outman! Remember that guy? Glad to see that he's back from TJ surgery and isn't sucking quite as badly as Moscoso is.

- In somewhat related news, Gio Gonzalez, who's having a pretty nice season so far, will probably not pitch in the weekend series. The other three guys the Phils will miss this week: Westbrook, Jaime Garcia, and Graham Godfrey (?).

- The Phils' pitchers sure do have some low HR/FB rates. Must be that cavernous ballpark we have here.

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Cahill is the cream of Oakland’s crop (2.6 WAR, ytd). Their results have been good, but xFIP lets the Phillies be hopeful that they can get some traction.

Oakland’s pitching has been the heart of that team this year. In the vein of the recent post I did about the source of the WAR that the Phillies have generated this year, and that most of it is from pitching, the A’s are doing the same thing, too.

Oak pWAR: 12.3 (5th MLB), oWAR 2.2 (29th MLB – ouch); dWAR: -0.7

Other MLB pWAR leaders (position): Braves = 2, SFG = 3, SEA = 4

Phi pWAR: 17.6 (1st MLB); oWAR: 7.8 (16th MLB); dWAR: -2.3 (28th MLB!!)

Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."

by RememberthePhitans on Jun 21, 2011 12:03 AM EDT reply actions

Can someone explain how the Phillies have a negative dWAR that’s 28th in MLB? They lead all the majors in fewest errors committed. Ibanez is below average, Brown perhaps as well though certainly much closer to average. Howard I think has performed well defensively despite the grounder in the 6th on Sunday that he fulbbed. Isn’t everyone else generally considered an above average defender? How can this possibly average out to 28th in MLB?

The Sabermetric pitching and batting stats make sense to me, but the fielding stats always seem like a whole lot of hooey.

by pretzalz on Jun 21, 2011 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions

There was some discussion on this at the Phillies Who Lost the WAR post, particularly about halfway down the page.

It boils down to the fact that errors (i.e. fielding percentage) only measure surehandedness, and don’t say anything about range, or positioning, or arm, etc. I thought yolacrary described it well:

A ball that drops in front of an outfielder like Ibanez that, say, Crawford would catch is not usually an error. Or a ball that Ibanez foolishly dives for is now a double or triple, instead of just a single, where Crawford either catches it or plays it on the hop.

A ball in the hole that Valdez doesn’t get to, but Utley does (because he has more range, and/or is smarter about positioning), is scored a single, looks innocent enough. But it adds up to additional baserunners, fewer outs made. The Phillies this year are either below average, as a collective, or well below average in converting batted balls to outs, even though they are above average in converting balls they get to into outs.

Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011

by schmenkman on Jun 21, 2011 7:12 AM EDT up reply actions

It is interesting to see that despite the injuries to their starters Oakland’s rotation still has the second best ERA in MLB. Of course, for most of the season they were ahead of the Phillies as the #1 ERA for starters. Cahill and Gonzalez are the only starters to remain from the opening day rotation. They lost Dallas Braden after only three starts and Brett Anderson after 13 starts. Outman has been excellent with four quality starts in five appearances. Godfrey looks like just a fill-in, a 26-year-old rookie. Moscoso is getting his first opportunity as a starter and is doing so-so. Tyson Ross did okay in six starts but is now on the DL, while Brandon McCarthy didn’t fare that well in 9 starts, a 1-4 record with a decent ERA, but he also is on the DL. That’s nine different starters (compared to the Phillies’ seven) with four currently on the DL.

by phillyinportland on Jun 21, 2011 3:03 AM EDT up reply actions

It is interesting to see that despite the injuries to their starters Oakland’s rotation still has the second best ERA in MLB.

And that’s facing a DH instead of the pitcher. Although on the other hand, in a fairly pitcher-friendly park.

Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011

by schmenkman on Jun 21, 2011 7:14 AM EDT up reply actions

STL series - no Pujols

Lotsa reports that he’s out 4 – 6 weeks. It is an ill wind that does not blow someone some good.

Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."

by RememberthePhitans on Jun 21, 2011 12:04 AM EDT reply actions

Beware the circuitious logic of the MLB schefule. STL has 10 games against the Fish and Mets by the first week of July. They’re not likely to be contenders, but you never know.

by Phrozen on Jun 21, 2011 1:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

So I missed Lee by one game on Thursday, and now I’m misding Doc by one game. Jeez.

Oh well. I’m planning a trip back east in Sept. for the Cards’ series.

by Phrozen on Jun 21, 2011 1:12 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

I actually think

Your spot on the money, TP. Mainly cause there’s little need for three long relievers in the pen, and I don’t see any of the three going anywhere any time soon. Would love to see carpenter get the call. Wishfull thinking.

Also would not be surprised to see an 11am staff if we make a move towards the end of July for a bat, for a month.

by Joecatz on Jun 21, 2011 6:01 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

Damn you TP for making me think….and worse off…for agreeing with your Kendrick vs Worley assessment. But like Joecatz said, you are spot on. I would love to see Carpenter get another chance, even Chunk, whom I have yet to see get ML hitters out with any sort of consistency. But I would really love for this team to have another lefty in the pen.

"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard

by EREX21 on Jun 21, 2011 7:25 AM EDT reply actions

It would definitely be a nice story if Carpenter got a shot, after being dropped from the 40-man during the spring. His previous opportunities have been as a starter or long man, so he has yet to really be given a chance in the big leagues as a regular reliever.

It’s just too bad David Murphy hasn’t decided to make him one of his favorites.

by taco pal on Jun 21, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Boom, roasted!

"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard

by EREX21 on Jun 21, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Great info and analysis. The Phillies strength at AAA relief is quite remarkable and something that should be remembered when weighing personnel decisions.

A few other contenders in the NL seem to be teeming with bullpen strength, so I ran a little study to test if replacement level for relievers is rapidly evolving. Basically, I was curious if this Iron Pig relief excellence was really just par for the course these days.

The quick and dirty test study I did looked for:

International League Pitchers with over half their appearances in relief, more than 30 G, more SO than IP.

The total number from 2005 to 2010, respectively: 15,16,17,32,17,26.

2011: 31 (if you set the bar at 15 G for the half season so far.)

So, the trend does appear to be slightly rising, but the Iron Pigs holding 6 of the 31 “SO per IP” guys is still impressive.

by Vaughn Haze on Jun 21, 2011 12:56 PM EDT reply actions

Good thought. Thanks for the info.

by taco pal on Jun 21, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

The dreaded fifth starter game ..

…has turned into the dreaded fourth starter game? Headed to CBP for belated Fathers Day, would love to see Hamels.

by FanSince1993 on Jun 21, 2011 1:25 PM EDT reply actions

Also, TP

Member a few weeks back when you posed whether we’d be comfortable with a bullpen next year (assuming madson walks or is too pricey) that was basically, contreras bastardo, Herndon, stutes and 3 guys from the system to make up a closer by committee/young guns super affordable pen?

I’m officially in.

by Joecatz on Jun 21, 2011 2:55 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

I just hope that RAJ and Charlie are cool with this too. I have a feeling they won’t be cool with a bullpen with (say) more than 4 guys with less than 3 years experience.

by Vaughn Haze on Jun 21, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

They’ll probably sign Jonathan Papelbon and some scrub like Scott Linebrink for a combined $13 million per, then brag about how they’re saving money by getting two relievers for the price of Ryan Madson alone. Then they’ll let Mathieson and Zagurski walk as FAs and Carpenter will get Rule 5’d.

by taco pal on Jun 21, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions