EDITOR'S NOTE: Bumped up front. Fascinating. - WC
So as many of you know, (kudos to TACO PAL for remembering during the game thread last night) about two weeks ago, I made a bold prediction regarding Raul Ibanez and his incredible streakiness. Essentially, based on some mildy scientific statistical isolation (read: I was drinking a few beers and checked baseball prospectus) I correctly predicted a snap out last night. I got lucky and was right, based on the following hypothesis:
Raul Ibanez is ULTRA COLD for 25 games and 100 plate appearances, then ULTRA HOT the next 25/100. I came to this conclusion by seeing the following on the season to date.
Games 1-25 (101 PA) .154/.238/.209 line 9BB and 27K with 1HR and 10 RBI
Games 26-50 (102 PA) .330/.353/.619 line 4BB 15K with 6HR and 17 RBI
at the time he was about 15 games in, (60 or so PA) with a line of .228/.270/.351 4BB 12K with 1HR and 5 RBI since game 50. Based on a mini platoon, and some other things, I basically guessed that he'd reach his 25th game and 100 PA of the streak in either the 1st or 2nd game of the Boston series. That part was pure guess, and I guessed right.
last night was game 76. for games 51-75 (99 PA) .200/.253/.289 7BB 19K 1HR 5RBI.
Game 76, 3-3, 1HR 2 RBI, 0BB, 0k.
Now, I say I got lucky basically because there was no scientific way other than to guess about when he'd hit his 100th PA or 25th game, than by counting off the days, combining it with "wouldn't it be cool if he got hot for the Red Sox" and me being the kind of dude who likes making bold predictions. But I got to thinking last night, HOW LUCKY WAS I? To find out. I did a little more digging. So, small sample sizes be damned, anybody besides TP wanna see how 2010 stacks up?
Thought so. The results, after the jump MAY JUST BLOW YOUR MIND!!
Rather than just check every 25 games and 100 AB's, I wanted to do it right. so I used the following crieteria in looking for when the streaks start and stop.
1. COLD STREAKS: USUALLY starts with an 0'fer game, usually followed by consecutive 0fer games, or multiple K games, and typically ends with a multi hit game, or consecutive hits after an 0fer. (almost always though, it's a big mutli hit game.)
2. Conversely, his HOT STREAKS ALWAYS start with either a multi hit game like last night, or two to three consecutive hit games in a row, following a really bad streak.)
3. there are mini streaks inside the major streaks that fool us, kinda like that time in college where your girlfriend was "late" for a day or two...
So I took that info in mind and without further adeu....
RAUL IBANEZ 2010 STREAK CYCLE
GAMES 1-26 COLD (104 PA) .224/.357/.375 16BB 18K 1HR 12 RBI
GAMES 27-50 HOT (94 PA) .273/.356/.442 11BB 11K 2HR 9RBI
GAMES 51-76 COLD (106 PA) .219/.283/.365 9BB 17K 3HR 15RBI
GAMES 77-103 SCORCHIN (116PA) .374/.457/.566 16B 20K 4HR 18RBI
GAMES 104-128 ICE FREAKING COLD (105 PA) .196/.257/.340 8BB 21K 2HR 10RBI
GAMES 129-155 HOT HOT HOT (115 PA) .346/.391/.561 8BB 21K 4HR 19 RBI
6 streaks on the season. Averaging 25.8 games, and 106 plate appearances.
2 cold 1 hot in the first half, 1 cold 2 hot in the second half.
So the good news Phans, is that if this holds true, aside form having to endure with his uncharacteristically high BB/K ratio this year, (lwhich doesn't really fluctuate in the streaks, believe it or not.) We get HOT RAUL for 2/3 of the rest of the season.
The bad news is...well, I have no explanation, other than I think he needs to get his eyes checked, as to why he has walked EXACTLY 16 less times and struck out EXACTLY 16 more times through the same number of games in 2011.
All of you more versed in statistical mumbo jumbo than me, feel free to analyze, poke, look for holes, etc.. in my theory, try and expound on it further, etc... I don't know if I'm still lucky, but it's pretty damn cool.
What I do know is this:
Reuben, if you are thinking about dumping him to Seattle now, DON'T!! He should be good for this streak through the GIANTS SERIES.
July 29th against the PIRATES is D day for the cold snap, just in time for the deadline. DEAL HIM IF YOU CAN!! THATS WHEN YOU'LL GET MAX VALUE (read, someone to take him for anythign they are willing to give.)
Nobody's gonna want him at the waiver deadline, after a month of horrible play.
Sure, he's likely to give you a sick sick line starting with the MARLINS GAME on August 25th, but if its tight at the end of the season, MAKE CHARLIE BENCH HIS ASS for the last two series against Mets and Braves towards the end of the year.
And if you don't deal him, and insist on playing him in the postseason, don't come crying to me when he puts up the same 225/.272/.290 2BB 8K 0HR 0RBI performance he did last year.
He'll be right in the middle of another cold one. As will I.
So says Catstradamus.