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A Look At The Phillies In "Hitters' Counts"

[edited to add jump and update date & time]

Something we have been kicking around during the game threads has been the Phillies’ approach at the plate, especially with regard to getting ahead in the count, namely 3-0 and 3-1. Our eyes tell us there is something off about certain hitters and how they hit once they get to those particular counts, but it is hard to ascertain precise numbers. This is an attempt to get a feel for where the Phillie hitters stand in those situations. How the numbers are to be interpreted, I am not sure at this point; without doing this for every team we aren’t going to know what would be considered ‘average' at this point in time.

A note about the methodology in compiling – I was not interested in how they hit in a specific count; you can look that kind of stuff up at B-R and Retrosheet. What I wanted to see was what the results would be ONCE a hitter got to the deep so-called "hitter’s counts". There are two charts – one for 3-0 counts and one for 3-1 counts. There is a bit of overlap, considering that many hitters are taking a strike on the 3-0 count. If that happened, then it has been counted on both charts.

I went through every plate appearance and tracked hits and walks; not making an out was what I was looking for here. There is no distinction held between four-pitch walks or walks after eleventy billion foul balls, so long as the hitter got to 3-0 during his plate appearance. I do not include intentional walks, unless it was just a fourth ball intentional walk (i.e. putting him on after the count got to 3-0 already - which has happened, I believe, only 2-3 times this season).

Key - T.P.A.: Total Plate Appearances; P.A.: Plate Appearances with that count

Star-divide

This first chart consists of the results after reaching A 3-0 count

PlayerT.P.A.P.A.HitsWalks
Rollins 260 14 1 6
Polanco 269 15 1 13
Utley 61 4 0 4
Howard 268 18 4 6
Victorino 200 12 2 8
Ibanez 240 13 1 7
Brown 63 2 1 1
Ruiz 158 7 0 7
Francisco 192 14 2 8
Valdez 154 5 1 3
Mayberry 117 5 0 3
Schneider 55 1 0 0
Sardinha 36 3 0 1
Martinez 57 1 0 0
Orr 67 1 0 1
Gload 41 1 0 1
Pitchers 148 0 0 0

 

All of these numbers are through last night's 2-0 win over the Dodgers.

Small sample size does apply in some of these cases. What is seen here with the Phillies is they have had, through 62 games and 2,386 total plate appearances, 116 (4.9%) of those PA with instances of a 3-0 count; 69 of those times (59.5%), a walk would be the result. 13 hits also resulted (11.2%). Some were on 3-0 green lights, others came after taking a strike or two. In total, 70.7% of the time there was a non-out result.

This chart is for results after a 3-1 count

PlayerT.P.A.P.A.HitsWalks
Rollins 260 35 5 9
Polanco 269 17 2 9
Utley 61 6 0 4
Howard 268 28 3 8
Victorino 200 16 4 4
Ibanez 240 16 2 5
Brown 63 7 2 4
Ruiz 158 11 1 7
Francisco 192 26 4 11
Valdez 154 9 1 4
Mayberry 117 9 1 5
Schneider 55 6 1 1
Sardinha 36 7 0 5
Martinez 57 1 0 0
Orr 67 4 0 2
Gload 41 2 0 1
Pitchers 148 5 0 3

 

In the same 2,386 plate appearances, the Phillies managed to work a 3-1 count 205 times (8.6%), with the end result of 26 hits (12.7%) and 82 walks (40.0%) - with a total non-out percentage of 52.7. I think one would expect a lower walk percentage in a count that is traditionally one when hitters like to swing, but I was expecting a higher hit percentage.

Some of the numbers did surprise. For example - Jimmy Rollins worked a 3-1 count in 13.5% of his PA, but didn't make an out in only 40% of those. Ryan Howard is slightly worse in a 3-1 count (39.3% non-outs). The disparity in some players between a 3-0 and a 3-1 count is interesting. Polanco and Victorino both have done well when working a 3-0 but they fall off a bit when getting to 3-1, which potentially suggests that the manner in which they got to 3-1 influences their approach afterward.

The Phillies are currently toward in the middle of the NL in OBP (8th), hits (9th), and walks (10th). Will these change as the year moves forward? It remains to be seen; I will continue tracking these numbers through the summer and see if they change at all, or whether we are going to continuing seeing a team that likes to hack away.

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Great work, thanks.

"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
@boknows71

by boknows71 on Jun 9, 2011 11:31 AM EDT reply actions  

This is great stuff.

Rollins’ numbers are as horrendous as I was afraid they would be. The only consolation I suppose is that he has only “wasted” 7 3-0 counts, even though it seems like there have been more than that.

I would bet Rollins and Howard (and Ibanez, who isn’t much better) would say that they are swinging because they have a good chance of getting a pitch they can drive. So it would be interesting to know what kind of hits they are getting in these situations (i.e. to look at not only the OBP, but also the SLG).

Celebrating 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1962-2011

by schmenkman on Jun 9, 2011 2:01 PM EDT reply actions  

Upon memory, I didn’t see a whole lot of extra base hits. Of course, there weren’t a whole lot of hits to begin with.

A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al

by WanderingMoses on Jun 9, 2011 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

How many runs do the wasted 3-0 counts cost? It would be useful to know the situations, but the run differentials would depend on the runners/outs situation. Also, if any of those turned into a DP, it would justify homicide.

Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."

by RememberthePhitans on Jun 9, 2011 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

There were about 3 DP’s that sprung from what was originally a 3-0 count. One each from Rollins, Valdez, and Ibanez.

A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al

by WanderingMoses on Jun 9, 2011 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

2011 ML averages for all players

After 3-0 count (excluding PA that ended up with an IBB):
3211 PA 1945 BB .275 BA .715 OBP .471 SLG. Walk Rate = 60.6%

After 3-1 count (excluding IBB)
6287 PA 2641 BB .273 BA .580 OBP .459 SLG. Walk Rate = 42%

by Vaughn Haze on Jun 10, 2011 11:49 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

2011 Phillies

After 3-0 (non-IBB)
121 PA 69 BB .288 BA .694 OBP .558 SLG. Walk Rate = 57%

After 3-1 (non-IBB)
212 PA 84 BB .219 BA .528 OBP .469 SLG. Walk Rate = 39.6%

by Vaughn Haze on Jun 10, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

So, the Phils are doing pretty well with 3-0 counts but the 3-1 count is not a good one for them.

by David S. Cohen on Jun 10, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Viva Los 3-0 Green Light!!!!

"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
@boknows71

by boknows71 on Jun 10, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

What should you do on a 3-0 count?

This is a question that I have pondered for a while.

If you were Ryan Howard, what should you do?

Polanco?

Exxon Valdez?

Ps….I’m new

by 5FOR1TRADE on Jun 10, 2011 3:47 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

First, welcome…

Secondly, Exxon should never get a green light under any circumstances whatsoever. With Polanco I could see the extremely rare instance in which he gets a green light, and Howard only if it were the scenario where you could almost certainly say he was going to see a fastball.

Otherwise, take the walks. The Phillies need baserunners too.

A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al

by WanderingMoses on Jun 10, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

But Exxon frequently bats 8th. With a man on third and 2 outs wouldn’t you rather have Exxon swinging away than have the pitcher up with 1st and 3rd and 2 outs?

Its a bit of game theory. If you are known to never swing 3-0 than the pitcher is free to throw a fastball down the middle. At the very least you need the threat of a green light to keep the pitcher honest.

by pretzalz on Jun 10, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, but that assumes in part that getting to 3-0 was a deliberate act on the part of the pitcher. I think there is wisdom in allowing the pitcher to throw a strike. In a lot of instances, a 3-0 green light is almost like a hit-and-run call – the swing will come regardless of the pitch’s location, unless the player is incredibly disciplined and is able to recognize bad location of the hand.

A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al

by WanderingMoses on Jun 10, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

That last line should be “out of the hand”

A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al

by WanderingMoses on Jun 10, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, the batter obviously had a good enough eye not to swing at the first three pitches…

by pretzalz on Jun 10, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wow, very interesting. Thanks for taking the time to put this together.

by tat167 on Jun 10, 2011 6:03 PM EDT reply actions  

With howard it might be interesting to parse the data according to Ibanez’s hot steaks. While the concept of line-up protection may not have much merit when averaged over an entire year, it can have in-game relevance in terms of game theory as well as that sabermetric ideas regarding line-ups are not really influencing the strategizing of pitchers and catchers. In fact, the approach that pitcher and catchers take might be the reason why the concept of line-up protection has been deemed inconsequential by the current sabermetric analysis. Who knows. Point is, the way pitchers will approach Howard in these stituations may depend on what Mr. Hot n’ Cold is doing. When Frost Köffin is at the dish there is little reason for a pitcher to give Howard anything hittable because Mr. Roll Over is all but a guaranteed out. When Joan of Arc shows up the pitcher might be more inclined to take their chances with Howard than putting him on base.

by j reed on Jun 10, 2011 6:59 PM EDT reply actions  

Interesting idea (and links), but I don’t think the data is available:
- In both 2009 and ‘11, Ibanez split time between 5th and 6th, but I can’t tell in which months he hit where.
- In 2010 he mostly hit 6th.

Celebrating 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1962-2011

by schmenkman on Jun 10, 2011 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think it’s a plod thru the game logs affair at which point you have to decide if it’s worth it considering the amount of time it’ll take. I was primarily concerned about this year which would make things easier though less statistically viable…damn you to hell small sample sizes. (this is to realign the hemispheres of your brain after that link and a DC shout-out to W. Moses)

by j reed on Jun 11, 2011 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

God bless the Go-Go. When I was younger and was training to run and such, my preferred music to have in my Walkman was the Junk Yard Band. Thanks for the blast from the past!

A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al

by WanderingMoses on Jun 11, 2011 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

If nobody else is gonna say it, I will: This bench blows hairy chunky monkey balls.

by Wet Luzinski on Jun 10, 2011 11:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Tell us how you really feel!

True, though, nothing to write home about.

A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al

by WanderingMoses on Jun 10, 2011 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

OK, so to put it more mildly, this fine research establishes why they blow hairy chunky monkey balls. Which is what the blog is all about.

by Wet Luzinski on Jun 11, 2011 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

should of kept dobbs

"There is no dark side in the moon, really. Matter of fact it's all dark."

by alcatraz0109 on Jun 10, 2011 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

DL or DFA Gload, call up Rizzotti. At least then we could have a pinch-hitting specialist with a chance to do some damage.

by phatj on Jun 11, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Compared to the Yankees: Andruw Jones, Nick Swisher, Francisco Cervelli, Chris Dickerson, and Eduardo Nunez.? Yes, it’s not up there, but I doubt that most contenders have more than one or two solid bench players. Braves – Hinske and Brooks Conrad? Marlins – the infamous Scott Cousins and Wes Helms? The Cardinals and the Brewers may be slightly deeper, but the big names are still guys like Allen Craig and Nyjer Morgan. When you get to the 13th & 14th position players you know it’s a crapshoot.

by phillyinportland on Jun 11, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

You didn’t include Eric Chavez on the Yankees bench. That’s a deluxe bench player.

by j reed on Jun 11, 2011 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

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