Phillies Prospect Roundup: Wherein We Reference Brooks Kieschnick
by PhillyFriar on Jul 11, 2011 8:00 AM EDT
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PrintWe're at the ceremonial midway point of the major league season, but we're even further along than that in the minor league season -- there are just eight weeks of box scores left. Let's not waste any time, then, and jump right into the fray by discussing the title reference...
Joe Savery, 1B/LHP, Reading: Savery's first year as a full-time hitter has been moderately successful, with the 2007 1st round pick hitting .292/.353/.404 thus far. Interestingly enough, though, he hasn't been playing full-time since his promotion to Double-A, and has actually taken back to the mound, surrendering just 6 hits and 1 run in 8 innings across 5 appearances, while walking none and striking out 11. He doesn't profile as a major leaguer either as a first baseman or a pitcher, so it's fair to wonder is his usage pattern the last few weeks portends some sort of Brooks Kieschnick LOOGY/PH role for Savery. Truthfully, that may be his best path to the majors at this point.
There are, of course, nine more write ups below the jump.
Brody Colvin, RHP, Clearwater: Much like teammate Jarred Cosart, it's been an underwhelming campaign for Colvin, who we ranked as the organization's fourth best prospect heading into the season. A back injury saw him miss a month of the season, and he's struggled to get on track since he's returned, posting a cumulative 4.09 FIP and mediocre peripherals (6.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.57 HR/9, 53% GB). Last Tuesday's start might have been his best of the season -- he surrendered three unearned runs over 6 innings while allowing 6 hits and a walk, striking out 5 -- so perhaps that's something to build on.
Jesse Biddle, LHP, Lakewood: The good news here is that for a 19-year old cold weather pitcher who was assigned to a full season league for his first full season, a 3.39 FIP and an 8.7 K/9 are solid marks. The bad news is that the command is not there (5.0 BB/9), and there have been reports that Biddle's velocity is down from last year. It's turning out not be quite the breakout year I anticipated before the season, but last year's 1st rounder is healthy, logging innings, and occasionally throwing out a start like Saturday's (6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 8 K) to remind us that the potential is there.
Josh Zeid, RHP, Reading: I had Zeid pegged as a potentially fast moving bullpen arm when I slotted him 20th in the preseason prospect rankings, so while it was no surprise to see him double jumped to Reading, the degree to which he struggled in the R-Phils rotation (a 32:25 K:BB with 39 runs allowed in 47.2 innings) was a bit disconcerting. Given the chance to ramp it up in shorter stints, however, the Tulane product has yet to be scored upon in 4 relief outings, allowing just 4 hits and a walk in 7 innings while striking out 12. He's got a number of guys in front of him on the organizational depth chart, but the Phillies clearly like his arm, and he's a name to remember as we discuss the 2012 and 2013 bullpen.
Michael Schwimer, RHP, Lehigh Valley: While the injuries to the big league bullpen have given a number of IronPigs a big league shot (hello, Juan Perez), Schwimer has toiled in Triple-A as one of the club's two best relievers on the season without getting his own cup of coffee. He's understandably frustrated about the whole thing, but the fact is that he's not on the 40-man and the guys called up ahead of him (Scott Mathieson and Drew Carpenter) were, and I think that explains why it's shaken out the way it has. Schwimer will get his shot if he keeps doing what he's doing, i.e., not surrender a run in his last 6 appearances while striking out 9 (and walking 0) across 6.1 innings.
Brian Pointer, OF-L, GCL Phillies: The Nevada high school product finally sprinkled in a couple of 0-fors after a 7-game hit streak to start the year, but the 3 walks he drew on Thursday and Friday were an encouraging sign. He's at .278/.339/.481 through 59 plate appearances on the season, and while he's swung and missed his fair share (25.9% K), he's posted a respectable walk rate (8.5% BB) and impressive power for the pitcher-friendly Gulf Coast League (53.5% XBH, .204 ISO). It's only 14 games, but Pointer has rapidly moved up the Toolsy Outfielder Organizational Depth Chart®.
Steve Susdorf, OF-R, Reading: The 2008 19th round pick is an easy guy to root for, as a guy with limited physical tools who had a solid college career at Fresno State (helping lead them to a national championship) and managed a grand slam in his first pro at bat. Now 25 and in Double-A, he's been old for his level at every stop, and he doesn't offer much in the way of secondary skills or positional value, but a career .303/.367/.448 line shows that he can certainly hit. Now at a robust .345/.406/.503 on the season after back-to-back-to-back 2-hit games, Susdorf could have a shot as a 4th or 5th outfielder if he continues to hit like this.
Harold Martinez, 3B-R, Williamsport: The club's 3rd round pick this year, Martinez drew some rough Michael Taylor comps among the Phillies bloggertariat due to his tools and spotty college performance record. Through 20 games with the Crosscutters, he sports one of the strangest lines I've seen: .258/.432/.323, with a 23.5% BB and 38.7% K. The lack of power isn't altogether unsurprising -- Martinez managed just an .091 ISO during his junior year at Miami -- but it's concerning in conjunction with the contact issues. Methinks some tweaks to Martinez's swing are in store for the offseason, but for now, at least there's a patient approach to build on.
Austin Wright, LHP, Williamsport: Like Martinez, Wright also had a college career that didn't quite match the raw stuff he had. A big lefty with a solid fastball, the Ole Miss product has looked good in his first 4 appearances for the Crosscutters, surrendering just 4 runs while running a 23:4 K:BB in 18 innings. It's tough to read too much into a college product putting up good numbers in the pitcher-friendly New York-Penn League, but southpaws who can retire both left- and right-handed hitters don't grow on trees, so the organization has to be happy with what they've seen from Wright so far.
Carlos Alonso, 2B-R, Lakewood: Alonso is the kind of guy that intrigues me, as a college product with good amateur numbers who scouts don't particularly love. He fell to the 32nd round as a senior sign despite hitting .385/.449/.631 with more walks than strikeouts across his junior and senior years at the University of Delaware, then proceeded to post a solid if unspectacular .265/.347/.415 line for Williamsport last year (good for a 120 wRC+). He's only played in 7 games this year, going 7-for-21 with a pair of doubles and 3 BB (to 3 K). He's already 23 years old, but he's now moved from the hot corner to the keystone, and and I'm always intrigued by guys with a solid eye at the plate, especially when they play up-the-middle positions.
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schwimer
Technically, Carpenter wasn’t on the 40 man, although Mathieson was, which is why Mathieson was called up first. I think Carpenter was called up before Schwimer because Carpenter was pitching better than Schwimer – his ERA and FIP were both lower than Schwimer’s.
It may also be that they DFA’d Carpenter once without anyone claiming him, so they felt they could likely do that again, if needed.
I would expect Schwimer is smart enough to realize that his not getting called up is a good sign that the team thinks highly of him and knows that DFA’ing Schwimer would mean losing him for certain.That said, if feeling slighted is motivation for him, then I hope his doesn’t read TGP.
I do have to say, though, that I found his comments a bit off-putting. Not because they were critical of the organization, but because they were also implicitly disparaging of Mathieson and Carpenter, which was a little dickish.
Is there another quote where he does that? From what I heard, he basically just said he’s frustrated with not getting called up. It came across like the little kid complaining Mommy doesn’t love him because she didn’t buy him a Kit-Kat bar, but I don’t think it was disparaging of anyone.
No, sorry, I wasn’t clear. He didn’t say that, but it’s the necessary implication of his comment. It was thoughtless, not malicious.
Even then, I don’t know that I’d call it dickish. I’d prefer he think he’s a better option than a failed AAAA starter in his first year of effectiveness in the bullpen, a guy the organization seems lukewarm on, at best (Mathieson), a journeyman Lefty (Perez), and a groundball specialist with somewhat underwhelming raw stuff (Herndon).
He certainly sounded petulant, but I don’t think it’s fair to characterize his comments as throwing anyone under a bus, either explicitly or implicitly.
Good call on Carpenter’s status, had forgotten he was outrighted. Well that does make a bit of a difference, I tend to agree with Cormican that the organization probably felt it could get away with DFA’ing Carpenter if need be, but didn’t want to move Schwimer to the roster unless absolutely necessary. In any case, Carpenter was the other of the “two best relievers” I was referring to above, and was legitimately the one guy that Schwimer couldn’t actually get upset about being called up ahead of him.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 11, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Savery
it would be pretty neat to see Savery make the majors as sort of half Ross Gload, half Juan Perez. would be an efficient use of a roster spot at the very least, and it would be entertaining to see Manuel try to manage his way through that conundrum.
The problem is he has to actually be good enough at one of the two positions. He doesn’t hit well enough to be a first baseman, and his control isn’t good enough for him to be much of a pitcher. He could get a cup of coffee, but he’s reminiscent of Kieschnick in that as much as he’s a fun player to have on the roster, it’s usually better to have a guy who is good at one hitting or pitching rather than poor at both. And frankly, Kieschnick may have been a better player.
well, he doesn’t have to hit well enough to be a first baseman; he has to hit well enough to be a plausible lefty PH. Gload is hitting all of .279/.290/.311. and he doesn’t have to pitch well enough to be a frontline reliever; he has to pitch well enough to be the 6th or 7th guy out of the bullpen.
of course, even given those relatively lenient qualifications, Savery isn’t there yet; I realize that. I’m saying “wouldn’t it be cool,” not “this is going to happen.”
by perfectdepth on Jul 11, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Heck, Matt Stairs has a .409 OPS and has played fewer than 20 innings in the field this year. That obviously isn’t ideal, but still.
The standards for being a major league pinch hitter are surprisingly modest. You don’t have to be a really great hitter to break into that particular job market, you just have to separate yourself from the huge pack of guys who are just about as good, by somehow acquiring the reputation of being able to hit without regular appearances.
Yeah – generally they suck. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/split/87/sort/OPS/order/true/minpa/25
by David S. Cohen on Jul 11, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Look at that list of players though. They’re mostly not limited to first base. Sure, you have the occasional Matt Stairs, but even he pops up in LF or RF every once in a while. Gload only has four appearances in the outfield this year with his injury, but had previously established himself as a guy who could play three positions and deliver a solid batting average.
But most of those guys are utility infielders who play a middle infield position (or at least third base) or a 4th/5th outfielder who plays all three outfield positions. Savery isn’t ever going to be a center fielder, and even left or right field seems questionable. He doesn’t have experience playing the outfield, and doesn’t seem to be athletic enough to provide quality defense. He’ll never play third base because he’s left-handed. So, aside from being able to pitch left-handed (and we’re talking about a guy who couldn’t really hang in AAA as a starter or reliever), he doesn’t offer much versatility. And while Stairs has strong plate patience and a long history as a fearsome big league hitter, Savery does not project as that type of hitter. Fact is, he doesn’t bring much to the table besides being able to hit for himself if he’s doing long relief.
I agree with perfectdepth that it would be cool. I loved Kieschnick when he was around, but the fact was he wasn’t very good at pitching or hitting, and that’s why he didn’t stick in the majors. Kieschnick at least was able to play the outfield. Savery needs to significantly improve at either pitching, hitting, or both in order to make the major leagues (save for maybe a September stint), considering the other names ahead of him on the organizational depth chart.
OK. So? What do you want to do, cut him? The whole reason why the minor leagues exist is so that you can let these things play out on their own. The point of prospect development is not to guess the right answer before anyone else does, but to maximize the odds of any prospect making it whatever those odds might be. Nobody here has said the Phillies should bank on Savery making it or even that he’s likely to make it, so who are you arguing against?
Mainly, I was pointing out the flaw in the idea that someone like, say, Craig Counsell is the offensive bar for Joe Savery, who doesn’t have Counsell’s defensive versatility (or his “Veteran Clubhouse Presence™”) to make up for being a suspect hitter.
I haven’t argued for cutting him, of course. He’s young and has more of a shot than some other guys in the organization — but I wouldn’t give him a better than 50/50 shot of being a big league contributor. I hope he turns out to be great, and maybe he will be. It’s not as though he’s completely without talent; he just doesn’t project as well as other players in the system, in my opinion.
I guess I don’t see what the problem is here. What is wrong with me saying, “hey, this guy isn’t that great, and probably isn’t going to make it”? Sure, I’m speculating, and in some sense it’s pointless, but then again isn’t all sports discussion kind of pointless?
I feel like you’re criticizing me for something here, but I’m not really sure what or why.
That came out more negatively in tone than I intended. The main thing I was objecting to is that no one said he was “that great” to begin with. It’s basically a point that never needs to be made. The vast majority of farmhands are “not that great,” so the only time that it’s ever worth pointing out is when someone says the opposite, which no one has here. Idle speculation is okay, but this particular type of idle speculation is akin to beating a dead horse.
Yeah, I don’t think anyone is out there arguing that Savery was worth spending a first-rounder on. I’d love to see him develop into a solid two-way player, you rarely if ever see that happen. My only concern is if he doesn’t find his command, and the team starts running him out there to get tough lefties (or righties, eek) out, and he walks them. We all know how Manuel can manage a game. Still, it seems as though he would probably be used more as a Ross Gload type who only comes in to pitch in severe mop-up duty (which would be subtly different from Kieschnick’s pitcher-first role.) If his bat continues to develop rapidly, there’s a possibility he sticks, though I’d say it’s a long shot. We’ll see, of course.
…I’d say it’s a long shot.
I think this is the main takeaway, and I hope I conveyed that well enough above. He’s in this position precisely because he’s probably not good enough as either a hitter or pitcher to profile as a major leaguer, so combine some bit of usefulness in those two areas into one roster spot and… who knows? Certainly isn’t likely, but among the possibilities for him to make it as a major leaguer, I really think it might be his best shot.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 11, 2011 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
conveniently for today's discussion
Savery just got promoted to AAA, so it seems that he’ll at least be getting a shot at being Kieschnick-lite.
by perfectdepth on Jul 11, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Makes sense, I guess. He’s pitched in AAA before, and if they’re still going to use him as a regular hitter, he might be able to find more AB’s in Lehigh Valley. At his age, he’s going to have to prove he can hang at AAA sooner or later, so might as well throw him in the fire. We’ll see if his bat (or his command) is ready.
regarding AAA
I was kind of surprised to see, when looking at Kieschnick’s minor league history, that he really didn’t pitch at all in what was sort of his “first life” in pro ball. he only threw 3 innings from 1993 to 2001.
it wasn’t until after he didn’t stick with any of the Cubs, Devil Rays, Reds, Rockies, and Indians, that the White Sox decided to turn him back into a pitcher at age 30. he did pretty damn well, with a .275/.320/.540 line in 206 AB and a 2.59 ERA in 30 innings. even then, Chicago released him after the season, and it wasn’t until the next year that Milwaukee finally put him in the majors.
this doesn’t have too much to do with Savery; mostly just marveling at Kieschnick’s bizarre career. although I do wonder if it points to how much players like Kieschnick (or Ankiel, for instance) are really aberrations in terms of prospect development. if Savery is to take a similar route—a long shot, of course—his age is perhaps a less significant concern than it is with a more normal minor leaguer.
by perfectdepth on Jul 11, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Right after he struck out the side in an inning of work today, as it turns out. So he ends his pitching season in AA with 14 K, 0 BB in 9 IP.
Also, Brad Lidge K’d 2 in one scoreless inning.
Some weirdness. B.J. Rosenberg started, faced 13 batters, which went:
HR, K, HR, K, K, K, FO, FO, K, GB-1B, K, FB-2B, K
I had a blurb on Rosenberg all queued up for a few weeks ago, then he got absolutely rocked in a Sunday. Still have it in the back pocket and want to discuss him at some point.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 11, 2011 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
and it would be entertaining to see Manuel try to manage his way through that conundrum.
I am now rooting for Savery to capture the 25th position in 2013. FYI, this would be in the fine tradition of So Taguchi, The Brunt, and MiniMart.
In preparation for NHL free agency, thinking of changing my screen name to Bhudde in 10OC.
Scuttlebutt on Phuture Phillies is that Greene and Quinn have both agreed overslot deals, but they’re waiting until closer to August 15 to be officially announced. Kind of stinks, if so, because I’m a big fan of guys getting as many pro reps as possible, but I guess the good news is that he’ll definitely sign (though I don’t think that was ever truly in doubt anyway).
phillippe aumont has tendinitis
http://www.rds.ca/baseball/chroniques/322466.html
Google Translator:
Promoted to the AAA level in mid-June, Phillippe Aumont reliever Quebec is forced to rest because of tendinitis in his right shoulder, learned RDS.
“It went well, I had a few outings with the team. But I went to see the team doctor a few days ago and I am bothered by tendinitis in the shoulder (right),” said Aumont, now led by Ryne Sandberg, the former star of Cubs Chicago, in his column in RDS.ca.
In five outings with his new team, Aumont conceded three points in seven innings and two-thirds while removing 13 batters to bat.
“I began to have pain in the shoulder for several weeks, but still I continued to run. I needed to know what was happening and I have been tested for magnetic resonance imaging. So I rest until the All-Star Game July 13,” he said.
The hope of the Philadelphia Phillies had never suffered such an injury.
“This is the first time it happened to me so I did not know what was happening and I was nervous before getting a diagnosis,” added the 22 years."
Since his recall, Aumont plays for the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs under the orders of Sandberg.
and here's the column aumont wrote
http://www.rds.ca/baseball/chroniques/322480.html
It’s much longer than the other article and I can’t seem to link to the translation for some reason, but it’s available on Google. My favorite quotes were:
Besides, I got booed during my evening more difficult. I was on my second release and I granted walks the first two batters before conceding a triple driving three runners at home plate … when I run a socket, everyone applauded and when I gave a shot on goal, they shouted: “Get him out of the game!”
Not surprisingly, the caliber of play is much more difficult at AAA, walking is really higher. It is expected that given that several players faces as much batting as launchers, which have evolved in the majors. They have more experience and talent is at the appointment. For example, if you are not able to run your curve for a decision, you remove it from your arsenal for this presence. It does nothing t’entêter because the hitters are going to pass up.
I am fascinated by Geancarlo Mendez
His raw numbers are promising, if unspectacular (except his defense, which appears to be spectacular, but in a bad way). Has anyone seen him in person (he plays 3rd for Lakewood, I believe)?
I don’t think he plays third anymore. In fact, I think hes only a part timer now.
by philiafan14364 on Jul 11, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
very interesting
the numbers, small sample caveat, were very good at AA.
Also, he was hitting 94 (!) on the stadium gun on Saturday, with good command of both the fastball and the slider, which he was backdooring to righties.
Very interesting. Thanks for chiming in.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 11, 2011 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
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