WAR and Piece: Ryan Howard's Sneaky-Good Season
by dajafi on Jul 14, 2011 12:15 AM EDT
Email
PrintRyan Howard seems well on his way to completing the lamentable Philadelphia sports journey from savior to scapegoat. He’s now in his 30s, his numbers have fallen off pretty sharply from the great heights of a Rookie of the Year award in his first season and an MVP in his second, and he strikes out a lot. What’s really likely to put him in the crosshairs is that starting in 2012, he’ll be working on a mammoth contract that’s been prejudged by smart baseball writers like Joe Posnanski and Rob Neyer as maybe the worst in baseball.
It’s true that the contract might well prove disastrous. Howard’s body type isn’t the sort that ages well, and the deal could be a triple whammy in that it expends far more money than Howard’s production is likely to justify, exerts an opportunity cost for spending elsewhere on the roster and fills a position at which offensive production can come cheap. (Imagine if, in August 2013, the Phillies are trailing the Nationals or Braves by three games, Howard’s hitting .250/.330/.440, and Jon Singleton is laying waste to the International League… for another team’s affiliate.)
In 2011, however, Howard is having a much better season than you’d think just given his relatively pedestrian numbers (.257/.353/.475). And—sorry, One-Chair—his RBI total doesn't have much to do with it.
Let’s start with the walk rate. Much was made of Howard’s new contact-centric approach last season, in which he cut his strikeouts from 186 in 2009 to 157 (in 83 fewer plate appearances, but still). Some of us thought this wasn’t totally a good thing, though, given both the dropoff in power production, from 45 homers in '09 to 31, and especially, given how opposing pitchers often work around Howard, walks (75 to 59). His OPS, OPS+, and Wins Above Replacement (the dreaded WAR) all fell sharply too, and his pitches per plate appearances dropped from 4.08 in 2009 to a career-low 3.9 last season.
Cut to 2011 and Howard’s patience has come back. He’s seeing an average of 4.04 pitches per plate appearance, exactly matching his career rate, and he’s drawn 47 walks in 393 plate appearances, or about 12 percent of his plate appearances, up from 9.5 last year and his highest rate since 2007. Meanwhile, his K rate is pretty close to what it was in 2010—a bit lower, in fact. This goes a long way toward explaining why Howard's 2011 WAR (as calculated by baseball-reference.com) is 1.9, already almost matching his 2010 mark of 2.0.
So why are his other numbers down even further from 2010? It basically comes down to one (non-)word: BABIP.
In his Rookie of the Year season, Howard hit a lusty .354 on balls in play. That went up to .356 in his MVP year. By 2007, opponents were starting to play the shift against him, with a corresponding drop in BABIP to .325; in 2008, it fell to .288 (largely explaining the career-low .251 batting average he put up that year). Howard was somewhat hit-lucky in 2010, with a .332 BABIP; this year, it’s back down to .303, well below his .325 career average.
There are a couple other things in the batted-ball data that suggest he might be due for some positive regression, starting with a home run to fly ball ratio of 18.4 percent, the lowest since his rookie season. (To be fair, this stat could be the leading indicator of his long-term decline; the trend has been ominous for a couple years now. But let's check back in October before we reach that conclusion.) And while Howard always has been less potent against lefties, I can’t buy that his power against them has totally disappeared: his career slugging percentage vs. LHP is more than a hundred points higher than his 2011 mark, while his batting average facing left-handers is actually a good bit higher this year.
Still, you get the sense the Phillies will take the entirety of the performance. Howard’s defense, already markedly better in the last couple seasons, seems to have taken another step forward in 2011 (notwithstanding a couple conspicuous lapses right before the break). He’s made just four errors, down from 14 in each of the last two seasons (and 19 in 2008). He’s had a series of solid at-bats against lefty relievers late in games, including some game-winning hits. And with the exception of one brutal hitless week in mid-May, he’s avoided the long stretches of seeming offensive helplessness that have marred his past seasons despite going for much of 2011 as the only serious offensive threat in the Phillies lineup.
With abundant talent in the NL at the first base position, it wasn’t shocking to see Howard miss the all-star team this season. But a strong case can be made already that he’s been the Phillies’ positional MVP—it’s Howard or Shane Victorino—and if he approaches his usual second-half numbers (.295/.401/.616), he’ll likely find himself back in the league MVP discussion too.
121 comments
|
4 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Ryan Howard is certainly a fascinating character in Philly sports lore. I’d say he’s less polarizing than Donovan McNabb (though if Howard hadn’t won a ring, who’s to say he wouldn’t suffer similar treatment?), yet there still seems to be a sharp division between Piece supporters and Piece haters.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Jul 14, 2011 12:24 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Yes. They seem pretty evenly balanced though. And for the most part, both seem to overshoot the mark. You don’t often see rational middle-of-the-road commentary on Howard.
That definitely puts him in a better position than McNabb, where you had a huge contingent of mindless fanatical haters, who were opposed only by a large (but not as large) group of quiet, rational, evenhanded types. There were very, very few vocal McNabb lovers on the other end of the spectrum.
Have you read the “McNabb Deniers” article on Football Outsiders awhile back? Nice read that fleshes your point out.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/walkthrough/2010/walkthrough-mcnabb-deniers
But a strong case can be made already that he’s been the Phillies’ positional MVP
This I’d have to disagree with. It’s Victorino. No doubt about it.
by philsandthrills on Jul 14, 2011 12:27 AM EDT reply actions
That article that you linked in the third paragraph was one of the biggest pieces of shit I’ve ever read in my life. You laugh at WAR? I laugh at your worn out ways you old tart.
The Jruth shall be told.
??
This guy covers the Phillies?
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Sophie-The-Goofy-Old-Tart/44518956636
by phillyinportland on Jul 14, 2011 2:47 AM EDT up reply actions
He has the most HRs vs. LHPs since 2006
This year is puzzling so far. He had a similar drought in ’09, although not as bad, but bounced back to hit the 4th most in baseball vs. lefties last year.
HRs vs. lefties since 2006 (NL and MLB rank):
2006: 16 (1, 2)
2007: 16 (1, 1)
2008: 14 (3, 3)
2009: 6 (22, 60)
2010: 12 (3, 4)
Total 2006-2010: 64 (1, 1) – Pujols is second with 61
Total 2006-2011: 64 (1, 1) – tied with Pujols
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
Why do I always get fooled by the “related fanshots” section? latest example: “Howard to the DL”….Oh No!….oh…11 months ago…phew.
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
Agreed – it’s a horrible feature of the website.
by David S. Cohen on Jul 14, 2011 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Looking at that batted-ball data, I’m concerned about that line drive rate (19.5% this year, down from 22.9% career), because that does correlate with BABIP and the decrease could be mostly real if he’s trading line drives for ground balls and infield flies (both of which are up). Combine that with another awful season against lefties – .653 OPS, some good at-bats notwithstanding – and Howard still worries the hell out of me.
The line drive rate worries me too, but regarding his .653 OPS vs. lefties, keep in mind that the league average OPS for LHBs vs. LHPs is only .631.
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
So he’s getting paid millions upon millions of dollars to be league average in a third of his plate appearances.
Just a note on infield flies, which are in fact up: he has 3, and is on pace for 5 (5.3), which is 3 more than last year.
I wonder how much of his drop in LD% in due to seeing fewer pitches in the zone (career low 40.2%), and making contact on more of those (career high 56.1%).
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
Backup Plan
Way off topic, but with all the naysayers and doubters on Howard, is there a backup plan? Could we pull off a trade? We pay some of his salary and ship him out for nobodies?
Would that be possible down the line? With the K-Rod trade just occurring it has me wondering.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
We pay some of his salary and ship him out for nobodies?
Why on God’s green Earth would we ever want to do that? HOWARD IS A GOOD PLAYER. Re-read the article, please.
As for the K-Rod trade, that was a win win for both sides (though, not really for K-Rod, but who cares?) Trading Howard as a salary dump would be stupid.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 14, 2011 8:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Not necessarily
Depends on the return obviously, and on Jonathan Singleton.
Let me rephrase that -
The scrubs received in return only matter if one of them turns into something useful. They’re bonus.
It really hinges on whether Phillies – Howard + Singleton + 25M/year > Phillies.
True, but we’re getting production from Howard right now. I’m willing to speculate that Howard’s production would be higher than production we would get from a stopgap until Singleton is ready. Also, Singleton is very young. For all we know, by the time he’s ready for the bigs, Howard’s contract could be up.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 15, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I have not watched the Simpsons, so I don’t understand what this image is of. You post it after all of my posts like some kind of stalker. Your replies to me are never appreciated or necessary and you are simply a troll on here. You reply to many posts attacking them for their intelligence, lack of stats, or opinion.
I am asking you to stop replying to my posts. Go away and leave me alone. You are unwanted, unnecessary, and beyond annoying. That is all you try to be. You are not here for discussion or welcoming other opinions. You are a detriment to these comment sections and a huge pain in the ass.
Stop.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
I am asking you to stop replying to my posts. Go away and leave me alone. You are unwanted, unnecessary, and beyond annoying. That is all you try to be. You are not here for discussion or welcoming other opinions. You are a detriment to these comment sections and a huge pain in the ass.
He is…a moderator. Brilliant observational skills, Sherlock.
Bob.
Nice post. I made a similar comment about BABIP in regards to the shift yesterday. You would think that with the shift, his BABIP would be below .300 constantly, but it’s not. Even with the shift, he hits .325 on balls in play, which is just astounding, in relation to his ability to drive the ball on a line. that’s obviously not the case.
In regards to the line drive rates being down, there are two reasons for this, and neither of them are, IMO anything to worry about, but in fact, positives in the long run.
1. His BB rates are up almost the same percentage ad his ld rate down. It’s basic math. For his walk rates to go up 3.5% the other percentages have to go down. I don’t think he’s flying out or grounding out that much more either because…
2. His BABIP is way out of whack. It’s .350 against LHP and .277 against RHP. He’s never had a season where his RHP BABIP was less than his LHP by like, 25 pts. The luck will normalize.
Grt post!
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
Line drive rates are reported as % of balls in play, so I’m not following point #1.
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
Yeah
forgot about that.
That said, the Other thing to look at is his first pitch stats. He’s taking more 1st pitches this season percentage wise, than ever before. He’s also swinging a lot more because of that on an 0-1 count and missing.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
In hindsight, The Contract is ultimately going to be measured against the deals that Fielder and Pujols are going to sign, and it will have a marked effect on fanbase perception. If Pujols, in particular, doesn’t significantly eclipse his deal, its just going to cement the belief held by many that the team badly overpaid.
Couldn’t agree more with you. Although I don’t know how Pujol’s agent walks away from the negotiations without eclipsing it by a few million per year. Maybe not $30mm a year but 27-28.
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
@boknows71
It probably won’t be the money so much as the years. Howard is only about 2 months older that Pujols and his extension was for 5 years, or through 2016 (I assume they will buy him out and not exercise the club option the year after). To get Pujols signed, a team may not have to pay him alot more money, but likely several more years when one would expect significant decline. I hope people keep that in mind and don’t freak out if, as you suggest, he gets a contract paying him something around 27-28 million per year.
by Boundforbeach on Jul 14, 2011 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Nice post. I don’t post on here very often but read every article, so it might be a little harder to articulate what I am trying to say.
Howard has definitely made some adjustments to the way pitchers have started attacking him, especially LOOGY’s, which shows in those late-game AB’s as he is definitely running deeper counts compared to prior years. I know this is not objective analysis but an “I watch the games” argument. Anyway, it seems as if he is looking for offspeed pitches a lot more now, sometimes to the detriment of watching a middle-in fastball (WHEELS!) go right by him, or is making weak contact with it. And I think it’s that weak contact he is producing vs LHP that is allowing for the spiked BABIP. It seems as if he trust himself to make good enough contact to still hit it for enough power/velocity to reach base, while still being able to layoff the junk pitchers are trying to get him to chase. It might explain the significant drop off from 2010 in his ISO vs LHP this year (.082 vs .228) while his OBP hasn’t taken a huge hit (.317 vs. .333). I’d love to see contact rate for in vs. out of zone at specific counts, because when he runs a deep count he might be thinking, “F#@! it, even if you fool me with a fastball I’ll still put in in play. But I won’t let you beat me with your junk”. I don’t know if trading OBP for SLG is good. It probably isn’t for him.
Great post dajafi! I agree completely – Howard has been really good this year, and it’s a shame fans for whom strikeouts remind them of being humiliated in little league by the guy who could throw 65 at age 10 can’t see past Howard’s Ks.
The thing about Howard, though, is that you can’t evaluate him at mid-season. He has always had a huge split-season differential. On his career, he has a .033/.056/.094 better second half than first – or, to state it otherwise, his OPS in the second half is .150 higher than the first half for his career. If history repeats and he’s been this good in the first half this year, we have a lot to look forward to in the second half.
Thanks. The last thing I did before posting this was looking at Howard’s splits by half, not for career (which I noted in the article) but year by year. Even in 2010, when my “watch the games” recollection was that he wasn’t better after the ASB, he was—albeit by .001 of OPS—despite the ankle injury.
That said, his raw OPS was worse in the first half this year than in any previous season. (I’m guessing he had worse OPS+ scores, given that offense is down so drastically this year.)
No ESPY artile for Roy Halladay?
I've been waiting my whole life for an Eagles Championship
R2C2!
RIP JJ
article
I've been waiting my whole life for an Eagles Championship
R2C2!
RIP JJ
by sports00fan00 on Jul 18, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Also this is the most ridiculous statement I've ever heard in my life
There’s not one [censored] player worth what he’s being paid
Ummm…. that’s just retarded.
The Jruth shall be told.
who cares?
howard always was a august/september player……. last year he got hurt and missed most of august and never got it going again.
I hate new york.
Baseball Baltimore and below is a joke.
by XxActionJacksonxX on Jul 14, 2011 10:11 AM EDT reply actions
Right, except he did get it going last year. He had a .246 OPS (!) in his first 10 days back in August, but then was .956 from Aug 31 to the end. And his .819 OPS in the postseason (.900 in the NLCS) was the highest on the team.
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
What do you think the statistical probability is that Howard’s second-half trends are “real” rather than just statistical noise? There must be a way to calculate that.
Good question – I’ve always wondered that and have no clue how to answer it.
by David S. Cohen on Jul 14, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know. My stat courses are but a vague memory. All I have to go on is history:
This is the increase in OPS from Apr-June to July-Sep:
2006 +.221 (23%)
2007 +.073 (8%)
2008 +.227 (30%)
2009 +.112 (13%)
2010 -.014 (-2%)
If we ignore 2010 because of the injury, the overall OPS for 2006-2009 went from .881 to 1.041:
‘06-’09 +.163 (18.5%)
Is there a statistician in the house?
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
I’ve always just assymend that the “Howard is a second-half player” statement was true. Now you’ve got me wondering.
(Dependent-samples t-test on before vs. after data? What would you use as the cutoff point?)
^guess who took a statistics class last semester
by TheNumber47 on Jul 14, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
I remember
someone (maybe Schmenk?) talking about that about a month ago when we were having the “will he get to .900 ops” discussion, and I think i had a post where if you take out 2010 because of the fact he didnt play in August, that He really actually heated up in August, then cooled a little in September, but was notoriously slow in June, but this year, he had a really good June.
I think its all hogwash, myself.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
i.e. 2nd half improvement?
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
yes.
I just don’t believe, that he’s THAT MUCH BETTER in the second half, than he is in the first half. I don’t habve the time to isolate the numbers right now, but my theory has always been that because he tires leading up to the AS break, and happens to hit rough patches in late June/July, You always see these “since the AS break statistics” with him, that make that seem more than it is.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
Not much different I guess, but the numbers above are Apr-June vs. July-Sep (i.e. the 18.5% improvement from 1st 3 months to last 3 months.
But in any case, it may NOT be repeatable, or at least he may not repeat it this particular year. We’ll have to wait and see.
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
career
Howards career by month
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=howarry01&year=Career&t=b#month::none
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
What I find most interesting
In 2010 and 2011. Last year (and the injury has to be taken with a grain of Salt…) He got off to a better start than traditionally, and was Scorching in June/July.
This year, he got off to a .290/ .351/ .560 start in April, was Horrendous in May, and started to pick it back up in June.
he hit 6,5,6 for HR’s by month, but the RBI’s were way down in May, as were the K’s
The walks went up in May, BTW, but in June, both the BB went up and the K’s went down. He doubled his BB in June, from the same PA in May, to the same K rate.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
Imagine if, in August 2013, the Phillies are trailing the Nationals or Braves by three games, Howard’s hitting .250/.330/.440
In 2011, however, Howard is having a much better season than you’d think just given his relatively pedestrian numbers (.257/.353/.475)
Not to nitpick, but those are almost the same line with one being help up as better than it seems, maybe the other one could also be better than it seems? Though, I agree in premise that line would be awful in August, it also may not mean he suddenly became Travis Lee (whose career line is damn near identical to that first line).
Yea I don’t know what this dude is thinking. Just one of the worst articles I’ve ever read.
The Jruth shall be told.
Wow, Dajafi confused with Bill Conlin
I feel guilty now.
No, the article is quite good and a nice look at the story behind the numbers. I just thought it was a little unfair to project the same(ish) numbers ahead 2 years without noting that there could be similar issues behind the numbers.
Sure, but I think the premise may also have been that’ll he’ll be making more money then and have an extremely cheap equal production replacement in the minors. Think about how frustrating it was to watch Thome’s above average production when you knew Ryan Howard was killing the ball in Reading a few years ago. Especially with the money difference that could be used on other positions. Looking at you LF.
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
by Ed Van Chimp on Jul 14, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough.
Although if Singleton is killing it in AAA for someone else because we traded him for Justin Upton or Evan Longoria, I would be okay with it.
samsies
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
by Ed Van Chimp on Jul 14, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
But if they traded him for Hunter Pence? How would you feel then? I’m of the opinion that Singleton is the future of this team, somehow, whether that be via a trade in a year or so FOR a guy like you described, or as a LF, if he can do it, or in the slimmest of situations, as our 1B, should something happen to Howard, or should someone be willing to trade for him in a few years.
But seriously. If Singleton gets moved for anything SHORT of a Longoria or Upton (Justin, not BJ…) I’ll be a very very upset man.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
Agreed.
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
by Ed Van Chimp on Jul 14, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, latest I heard was that he’s back at 1B.
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
by Ed Van Chimp on Jul 14, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, I thought the idea was to get him where he was more comfortable for now so he could just worry about his hitting.
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
Reminds me of two other Phillies – Greg Luzinski and Pat Burrell – who both played primarily at first base in the minors but almost exclusively in left field for the Phillies. Neither was noted for his defense.
by phillyinportland on Jul 14, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
He played in LF on July 6th. It seems to be a sporadic thing, since he played 1B on the 4th and 5th.
Bob.
by The Dark on Jul 14, 2011 12:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't buy it.
The fact of the matter is, his number has been in decline for years, and no amount of cherry-picked stats can contradict that. Good work on the article, but I respectfully disagree. The contract is a bad one. Fact.
FARGLE BARGLE
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 14, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It’s really no different than simple regression to the mean in either direction. I think positive just means it is a good thing for us.
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
by Ed Van Chimp on Jul 14, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Shorthand for regression to the mean when below the mean.
by David S. Cohen on Jul 14, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
One other consideration is the declining run production.
Even though his OPS so far this year is lower than last year’s (.828 vs. .859), his OPS+ relative to the league is actually the same, at 127.
2006 was an outlier, an outstanding year at the peak of his career, before pitchers had adjusted, and we’re never going to see that again. With that in mind, I think we’ve seen some decline already, but it hasn’t been dramatic. I also still expect 2011 will end up better than 127. For example, an .880 OPS would mean OPS+ of 135.
OPS+ by year:
2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
133 .. 144 .. 124 .. 141 ,, 127 .. 127
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
i.e. the League's declining run production environment
Just realized the first sentence could be read to mean Howard’s declining run production.
Celebrating over 50 years of slightly more Phils wins than losses: 1961-2011
Not a Piece Hater
I love Ryan Howard. He is a very important part of this team and we might not be a playoff contending team without him… but he is overpaid for what he produces. If Howard were making 16 million now and for the next few seasons, I think you’d see less complaining. The fact is that he is paid like a #1 at his position and he is not producing that way. The thing that is especially upsetting to people I think is that Howard is not earning his contract now and people see that it is only going to get worse. To be honest, it really is not Howard’s fault… our team decided to over-pay him last year and that is where we are at. Can you tell me any team in baseball would give Howard close to the deal we gave him if they sign him today?
Also… don’t tell me Howard is good defensively. Sure he is better than he was, but errors are a terrible way to judge a players defense… the worst and slowest terrible outfielder could have very few errors if he never gets his old ass close to a ball. On more advanced defensive metrics Howard is below replacement level. His bat used to make up for these shortcomings, but they no longer do.
Howard helped us win a championship, is a very likable dude, and still an important part of this team. However, I don’t think one has to be a “hater” to criticize someone who is not producing in line with what he’s getting paid. Take for example Hamels. I love Hamels (as you can tell from my name). However, if we sign Cole to a 5 year, 120 million dollar deal and in then next year he starts pitching 5 innings per game throws up an ERA of 4.5 and an FIP of 5.0… I’m going to rip him. Doesn’t mean I don’t like Cole.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 14, 2011 12:29 PM EDT reply actions
Well, your cole example doesn’t really work. Howard’s producing well, just not at elite levels. The cole numbers you posted there are freaking god-awful.
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
by Ed Van Chimp on Jul 14, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough. Let’s say Cole Started going 6 innings and had like a 3.5 ERA and was being paid 20-25 Million per year.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 14, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, it would obviously be frustrating. Although in this case I think Cole is probably more likely to be elite for longer than a guy like Howard. Who pretty much screams declining power hitter, even when he was signed.
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
by Ed Van Chimp on Jul 14, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Declining power hitter, even when he was signed. Can't put my finger on it - just feels so familiar....
I triple dog dare ya Bryz to prove me wrong. Please, please, please.
Yeah that is what I said above. Howard somewhat frustrating now… but the real frustration comes from knowing that he is going to get paid more down the line to do worse
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 14, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Yup, but we’ll just have to face it. In fairness we’ve gotten more from him then he’ll ever cost us IMO.
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
by Ed Van Chimp on Jul 14, 2011 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
does anyone remember what Howard was being paid when he was putting out amazing stats? in 2006 his MVP year ready for this, $355K. if you think about his salaries from 05-10 versus his output, the Phillies owe him. i estimate if Howard puts out the performance of a 10M player for the life of the contract, he and the Phils can call it even. in 2005 he put out .288 AVG, 22 HR, and 63 RBI in 312 AB. thats about 10-15M. the list goes on. these Howard haters cannot exist anymore. put yourself in his shoes, don’t you want to be compensated for what you did? it’s not like he waited to get the money then perform.
ok i’m done.
Dude this is a business. It’s not about “owing” somebody anything. A-Rod isn’t giving back any of his hundreds of millions of dollars he’s being paid by the Yankees because he isn’t worth the money. Neither is Jeter, neither is Adam Eaton. You can’t make that argument unless you use it both ways. Brad Lidge isn’t about to give back is 12.5 mil because his career is over. That argument is just a complete joke.
The Jruth shall be told.
Also, by that logic, probably half the players in MLB outplayed the amount they were being paid in the first 3 or 4 years in the league.
Which is exactly why the 6 year arbitration no free agency rule is such a boon for the owners.
by David S. Cohen on Jul 14, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
It is. At the same time, it’s not like they take all those savings off the top. It increases the budgets that they have for veteran FA bidding, so the market price there is bid up higher than it would be otherwise. It’s a transfer from the young players, which is split between the veteran players and the owners, with probably more than half going to the former.
Perspective from a Giants fan on Howards contract:
I found Howard contract to be horrible, not b/c he I thought he would decline before the new deal started. But rather that the Phillies paid market price + for what the market was when they signed him, when doing long term deals I always like to see discounts on the annual value when compared to the current market, especially if you control said players for 2 (or was it 3) plus years anyways. A contract like A. Gonzalez is good example of this.
Basically in the howard deal, the Phillies absorbed all the risks of the contracts while Howard got a risk free deal.
Kickham where it hurts
Agreed
The real problem here is that we were already slightly overpaying for Howard when we inked the contract and this will only get worse.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 14, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I know, but the first few paragraphs got me thinking.
I also made the mistake of listening to Mike Missinelli yesterday so I had this in my head to begin with. Just seemed like a good place to drop it off.
Kickham where it hurts
by say hey nation on Jul 14, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
His contract is relevant to what constitutes “good” production no?
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 14, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
No?
Sounds like you really want to get into semantics here. You threw out some terrible numbers for a hypothetical bad contract for Cole Hamels and everyone could agree that was bad production. Now you’re saying the contract is relevant to what constitutes good production, so here’s another hypothetical. Let’s say Howard has the highest paid salary, the ARod level from a few years ago. And let’s say he puts up another 2006 performance. Does it really matter at that point whether his contract makes him the highest paid player? Hasn’t he given the team “good production?” I understand the money aspect of the game is very important to some fans. But if you can’t say that something is good without taking into account what a player’s contract includes then I think the money is way too important.
by phillyinportland on Jul 14, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I threw out some terrible Hamels numbers and quickly agreed they were that… it was not at all relevant to the point really… I was saying that criticizing a contract does not make you a hater.
The contract totally matters… if Mayberry started putting up 280/340/500 split, I would say those number are amazing production. To me one’s production has to be relevant to expectations based partially on contract because there is an opportunity cost to signing a big contract, i.e. we can’t sign other talented players.
I didn’t say it was a determinant, I said it was relevant (if semantics is your game). With Howard’s 2006 season paying him like the best in baseball would be fine since he was, well, the best in baseball. However, he is currently one of the highest paid first basemen… with a 1.9 WAR. Those numbers are just sad. RBI’s (just like wins for pitchers and errors for fielders) are a ridiculously overrated stat and that happens to be the only stat that piece has excelled at in the last few years.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 14, 2011 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I read your sentence as implying that the amount of the contract would have a bearing on whether one got “good” production as a result. Perhaps you see the term relevant differently than I do. I was thinking of this dictionary definition: having a bearing on or connection with the matter at hand. To me there is good production regardless. And Howard’s 2006 results are one of those examples that are so clear-cut that I didn’t think one could argue whether it constituted good production, no matter what the contract called for. That doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be a topic for discussion when analyzing the season, just that the actions on the field determine production, while the contract will create a way of evaluating return on the investment, so to speak .
by phillyinportland on Jul 15, 2011 4:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I think saying that “good” production does not need to be contextualized is odd. See my Mayberry example above… what we call “good” production from Mayberry, Brown, or Ruiz is not going to be the same as what we call “good” production from Utley and Howard. Part of this is based on expectation. Expectation is partly determined by past performance but also our expectations of performance are going to be based on payment. We should expect more from Howard based on what he is getting payed and hence when he doesn’t do more, he is falling short of expectations and is not as “good” as he’d be otherwise.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 15, 2011 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s also a first basemen. If your gonna give a contract like that a player not named Albert, it’s better spent on a guy like Tulo or Hanley R. Above average hitting first basemen are a dime a dozen. Even if you don’t have a top tier talent, you can easily patch it with the Adam LaRouches and Aubrey Huffs of the league until you draft or develop a top tier guy.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on The Good Phight
Related FanShots on The Good Phight
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Next Game
Philadelphia Phillies
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Saturday, May 26, 2012, 7:15 PM EDT
Busch Stadium
Clear. Winds blowing out to left field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 95.
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
- Giancarlo Stanton misses cutoff man, and Logan Morrison is thankful he did (Video)
