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Phillies Prospect Roundup: Read our Commenters' Firsthand Reports!

Two items to kick off this week's roundup. First, if you haven't had the chance, please check out the Fanposts that Romero and The Dark have written recently on their trips to see the BlueClaws and Threshers, respectively. Pieces like this are always appreciated, as in season scouting reports are often difficult to come by, and the numbers can only tell us so much.

The second item follows from a change that Fangraphs made to their hitter statistics last week: changing K% to calculate strikeouts as a percentage of plate appearances instead of at bats. This makes K% and BB% consistent with each other, and as David Appelman notes, it's not a change that drastically alters the numbers to the point where our frame of reference changes.  I've gone ahead and updated the site Prospect Primer to reflect the change.

With that said, let's get on with the show. Check below the jump for updates on some of the organization's athletic young outfielders (of course), a pair of older, bat first prospects, and a Canadian right-hander who tossed a gem of a game on Saturday.

Star-divide

Trevor May, RHP, Clearwater: The issue with the big right-hander has always been his control, as his power arsenal has always generated swings and misses (as his career 11.6 K/9 attests). While the big righty hasn't definitively solved the issue by any stretch, he's certainly been pounding the strike zone lately, with just 4 walks (against 25 strikeouts) in 18.0 innings over his last 3 starts, including a 7-inning complete game shutout Saturday a week ago. I don't think he has quite the same upside as teammates Jarred Cosart and Brody Colvin, but he's having the best season of the three, and it's not particularly close.

Jiwan James, OF-S, Clearwater: As loyal TGP commenter philsandthrills pointed out on Twitter, James has been on a tear recently, going .323/.432/.398 since the All-Star break to bring his season line to .277/.341/.384. Most encouraging to me has been his control of the strike zone as of late, as he's walked 9 times to just 11 strikeouts in the month of July. James is 22 now, and while we're still waiting and hoping for the big breakout, he's putting up better numbers in High A this year than he put up in Low A last year, so at the very least, he's holding serve.

Aaron Altherr, OF-R, Williamsport: Altherr had a pretty brutal 41-game stretch in Lakewood this year, hitting .211/.272/.272 with 6.7% BB and 28.8% K, but he's been much better since heading to Williamsport, hitting .288/.318/.433, swiping 10 bases in 11 tries, and serving as the subject of some good scouting reports. He's still very raw, and he's only walked 4 times in 112 plate appearances (3.6% BB), but he's young, his tools are excellent, and he's showing some ability to convert those tools into actual baseball skills, which is all you can ask from a high school toolshed draft pick.

Colin Kleven, RHP, Williamsport: From that same Phuture Phillies piece, Kleven has been clocked as high as 95 on the gun, which in and of itself makes him a name to watch. Performances like Saturday's only add to the intrigue, as Kleven threw 7 scoreless innings, allowed just 3 hits and 0 walks, struck out 2, and got 15 ground ball outs. The club's 33rd round pick back in 2009 out of a high school in British Columbia, Kleven is a projectable right-hander who has specialized in getting ground balls (61% on the year).  He's not racking up strikeouts (15 in 26.1 innings), but he's keeping the walks down (just 7 on the year) and is allowing just a .304 slugging percentage, which is a nice skill set.

Zach Collier, OF-L, Lakewood: It's easy to forget that Collier is still just 20 years old, seeing as it's his third full season in pro ball (including 2010, which he sat out of with an injury). His .267/.343/.378 line isn't earth shattering by any means, but there are several reasons to be encouraged.  He's controlled the strike zone well (9.4% BB and 20.5% K), stolen 25 bases at a 71.4% clip, and flashed a good arm in the outfield (6 outfield assists). It's not a huge breakout season by any means, but it's the most success Collier has had since his time with the GCL Phillies in 2008, so it qualifies as a successful campaign thus far.

J.C. Ramirez, RHP, Reading: The aforementioned Prospect Primer discusses the importance of Double-A as the biggest testing ground for prospects, and I think that may explain what's happened to the Nicaraguan right-hander in 2011. He had some superficial success early on, but the poor peripherals -- 4.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.75 HR/9, 40% GB, 4.35 FIP -- have started to catch up with him, with Thursday's outing (3.2 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 2 BB, 3 K) serving as a regression-in-action sort of situation. Until Ramirez starts missing more bats, there's definite reason for concern here.

Cody Overbeck, 1B-R, Lehigh Valley: Overbeck certainly earned his promotion to Triple-A after his .275/.331/.532 showing in 62 games in Reading, but it's been tougher sledding since heading up Route 222. In 29 games, Overbeck has managed just a .236/.296/.404 line, and the culprit is his plate discipline: he's walked just 4.9% of the time while striking out in 35.3% of his plate appearances. He did have a bit more success in the past week, going 5-for-15 with a homer and a double, but until he either cuts down on the holes in his swing or develops a more patient approach, he'll be too easy for pitchers to exploit.

Matt Rizzotti, 1B-L, Reading: I often think about Rizzotti and Overbeck together, because while Overbeck is six months younger and offers a bit more with the leather, they're both older, bat only prospects, and the truth of the matter is that I believe in Rizzotti's bat more. He's got a cumulative .323/.412/.572 line at the Double-A level (including a .295/.384/.521 performance this year), but unlike Overbeck, he's always controlled the strike zone pretty well, with a 12.6% BB and a 20.7% K in his time in Reading. He's 25 and by all accounts pretty brutal defensively, but he's a good enough hitter that he deserves a shot to prove himself in Triple-A, whether with the Phillies or another organization.

Lendy Castillo, RHP, Lakewood: In that Fanpost from Romero linked above, he mentioned Castillo's velocity (94 to 96), which makes him an interesting arm to monitor. He put up good numbers for the GCL Phillies last year (10.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.40 HR/9, 2.98 FIP), albeit as a 21-year old, and has followed that up with a nice campaign for the BlueClaws, with 9.3 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, a 42% GB and a 2.33 FIP. He's a 22-year old reliever in Low A, so he's not exactly a mega-prospect, but easy plus velocity is a rare commodity, and gives Castillo back of the bullpen potential.

Francisco Diaz, C-S, Williamsport: I'll admit that I've always just kind of glanced over Diaz's name in the box scores, and in my defense, guys with a career OPS well below .700 aren't usually worth focusing on. That said, the more I look at Diaz, I admit to being a bit intrigued: since struggling as a 17-year old in the Venezuelan Summer League back in 2007, he's walked more than he's struck out (50 to 48 in 365 plate appearances), and is very good defensively (thanks to Mitch Rupert for this). The power clearly isn't there right now, but the walks mean his .206/.346/.233 line actually isn't that far below league average in the New York-Penn League.  Diaz is just 21, and catchers are often notoriously slow to develop due to the defensive demands of the position, so I'll be looking for his name in the box scores going forward.

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j.c. ramirez

Weirdly, Ramirez is averaging more an 1 K/IP this month (18 K, 5 BB in 17.2 IP) with his high ERA split. It’s like he’s doing a miniature Cliff Lee thing where his results are inversely proportional to his peripherals, although it’s probably more like that one bad game he had last week had a big effect on a small split sample. Anyway, it’s only 17.2 IP but it’s a good sign. There was some article earlier this year when Ramirez claimed he could still strike people out but wasn’t doing it because he needed to work on some unspecified other stuff. I don’t know if I believe that, but who knows, maybe it was the truth.

by taco pal on Jul 18, 2011 9:39 AM EDT reply actions  

That would seem to gel with Travis D’Arnaud’s assertion that the Phillies are very structured and ask players to work on specific things.

by Cormican on Jul 18, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I would love to hear about more examples like this

"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."

by DirtyWaters on Jul 18, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice write-up. Also, don’t forget this pitcher who threw quite a gem himself over the weekend. Touching 97

Warning… don’t read the comment below the article

by Boundforbeach on Jul 18, 2011 10:34 AM EDT reply actions  

2 things

1. Ive been teasing JJ about his penchant for fast food on twitter and I think I’ve convinced him to let me take him, cosart, may and Colvin out for dinner sometime in August. Well see if it happens. If so I’ll turn it into a quasi interview piece.

2. Personally, I would LOVE to see a quick trade deadline primer from you on the ten most likely targets.

Great work as always

25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!

by Joecatz on Jul 18, 2011 10:49 AM EDT reply actions  

Sorry, just seeing this now. Most likely guys Phillies are targeting, or Phillies prospects teams will target? If it’s the latter, and we assume that Dom’s off limits (whatever Jon Heyman “speculates”), I’d guess teams will be asking for the usual suspects: Cosart, Singleton, Valle, Biddle, Colvin, etc. I’d assume the Amaro & Co. will try to dangle Rizzotti and some of the relievers (De Fratus, Schwimer et al.) as a counter.

Honestly though, kind of tough to know what’s going to happen, especially since the Phillies aren’t dabbling in the high end of the trade market this year. The year they were targeting Halladay and Lee, it was pretty obvious who the trade chips were, but it’s honestly tough to know given that they could deal for someone like Beltran, but they could also just sit tight and make a minor move or two.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 19, 2011 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Trade talk

There has been a lot of speculation around short term solutions a la Cuddyer, Willingham, Ludwick, etc…However, with the Phils not really having any big league ready OF prospects and since the OF FA crop is pretty poor for next season, shouldn’t the targets be focused more on players that are more than half season fixes? I am not talking about superstars, but average players that preferably bat RH or switch, hit LHP well, and are in organizations that could be eager to add prospect(s) i.e….Nolan Reimold, Jeff Baker, Delmon Young, Emilio Bonafacio…just to throw a couple names out there that would potentially fit those categories.

"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."

by DirtyWaters on Jul 18, 2011 12:00 PM EDT reply actions  

I still like my Torii Hunter idea. But that probably will have to wait until the offseason.

by taco pal on Jul 18, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s still the best idea I’ve seen just about anywhere, btw.

25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!

by Joecatz on Jul 18, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Another option would be the Reds who have a logjam in Left Field, with Johnny Gomes, Fred Lewis and Chris Heisey (who I am a really, really big fan of) at the MLB level and Yonder Alonso, Todd Frazier and Jeremy Hermida in AAA. I want no part of Hermida, but something’s gotta give there.

by Cormican on Jul 18, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Heisey has terrible splits against LHP, but Gomes could work sans the faux hawk

"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."

by DirtyWaters on Jul 18, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Heisey could well be a future 4th OF as his ceiling. I think trading for any of those Reds OF’s would be risky, as Heisey may be half of a Mayberry platoon at best, and there’s a reason Gomes isn’t starting regularly anymore. Alonso and Frazier haven’t played above AAA much (and having seen Frazier dozens of times in person, he’s probably a better 2B, than LF), Frazier’s ceiling is likely only slightly better than Heisey, but Alonso could be a very nice player, as he has very good plate discipline and some pop, but he doesn’t have a very good arm and isn’t exactly Michael Bourn.

by Cormican on Jul 18, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the mention, PF!

Thanks also for the continued reporting. I went to a Reading Phillies game last week (Monday, 7/11) and got to see a few more prospects first-hand.

Rizzotti won the game with an extra-innings walk-off BOMB. While being interviewed he got pied in the face. Not to be outdone, two Phils players shortly afterward dumped an entire water cooler on him.

I got to see Rizzotti in the field as well, and he didn’t confirm or deny any scouting reports about his defense. He definitely made all the routine plays, so at least he can do that.

The worst defensive player on the field, by far, was Trenton’s Third-baseman, who offered some of the worst defense I’ve ever seen from a professional baseball player.

This is the same game, by the way, in which Brad Lidge pitched. He was only getting up to the mid-high 80s with his fastball, but he was making these AA hitters look really silly with his slider.

Lastly— I’ll mention a darkhorse prospect: Jacob Diekman. He certainly has struggles finding the plate (and he’s 24), but he can sling it from the left-side. He throws side-arm and looked deadly against left-handers. Without knowing his splits, I would guess he might have a shot a being a major-league Loogy.

by Romero on Jul 18, 2011 12:09 PM EDT reply actions  

thanks for the contributions…and the heads up on Diekman.

"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."

by DirtyWaters on Jul 18, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

diekman

MiLB website says:

vs. L – 19.0 IP, 4 H, 7 R, 3 ER, 9 BB, 28 K
vs. R – 21.0 IP, 27 H, 17 R, 14 ER, 16 BB, 21 K

Thanks for the heads up.

by taco pal on Jul 18, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wow, those are some ugly splits.

by phatj on Jul 18, 2011 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, one of them is.

by taco pal on Jul 18, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I meant in the sense of the huge separation.

by phatj on Jul 18, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Awesome, thanks for this.

Diekman piqued my curiosity after getting an above slot bonus as a 30th rounder back in ‘07 then putting up solid numbers in the GCL, but he proceeded to flop as a starter in the subsequent years, and still had problems with free passes even after shifting to the pen. Has generally seemed to impress people in person, and the splits definitely indicate that he’s tough on lefties, so I’d agree that he’s a guy with a shot as a major league LOOGY.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 19, 2011 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lakewood playing an early game today

Ervis Manzanillo knocked out after 3.0
7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 0 HR, 2 GB, 4 LD, 5 FB

Santana with a triple

by taco pal on Jul 18, 2011 12:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Three innings in before 12:30, that is an early game. Must be a get away day.

by Cormican on Jul 18, 2011 12:38 PM EDT reply actions  

That AA rotations going to get crowded next year. You have to figure that Pettibone, May, Cosart and possibly JRod are going to move up. I doubt JC Ramirez is sent to AAA, and Colvin will likely be in AA at some point next year too. 6 legit prospects for 5 slots.

by philiafan14364 on Jul 18, 2011 2:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Somebody (Ramirez, possibly) could also end up moving to the Bullpen.

by Cormican on Jul 18, 2011 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Probably what will end up happening, even if its not ideal. My gut says JRod might actually be the casualty.

by philiafan14364 on Jul 18, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’ll be shocked if all four of cosart, pettibone, may and Colvin are still in the organization come august 1st. I seriously doubt that Cosart goes anywhere, but the other three are all fair game, IMO.

25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!

by Joecatz on Jul 18, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I doubt JC Ramirez is sent to AAA

Why?

by taco pal on Jul 18, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pitching to contract or not, JCs been pretty bad this year. He just hasn’t showed that he deserves to be promoted, and hes only turning 23 in August, which makes him age appropriate next year if he’s in AA.

The strikeouts are WAY down this year, and he’s actually getting lucky on balls in play (.256 BABIP), which means the results could/should actually be worse than what they are.

I don’t see much reason for moving him up other than to try to avoid a logjam in the Reading rotation.

by philiafan14364 on Jul 18, 2011 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Huh? What do you mean “pitching to contact or not”? If he really is pitching to contact, then that’s exactly why he’s been bad! I don’t know whether it’s true or not, but it’s dumb to say he should be penalized for pitching to too much contact if he’s trying to pitch to contact.

And regardless, even if he’s just been bad without any explanation, so what? Don’t you think it’s a little early to make any judgment at all on Ramirez’s 2012 assignment on July 18, 2011? He could stink for the entirety of 2011, but if he does well in instructional league and spring training he could earn and very much deserve a promotion on Opening Day 2012.

This is the kind of thing I really hate about online prospect discussions. People are so eager to be the first to “know” something that they fall over themselves to make predictions that aren’t warranted. I have no problem with anyone describing Ramirez’s performance this year as “probably bad,” but it isn’t reasonable to go beyond that.

by taco pal on Jul 18, 2011 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Eh, he said doubt. I think that’s fair. Had he said there’s no way or he can’t be or something more definitve, I would agree it was over the line. I don’t think it’s worth getting worked up over what sems, to me, a fair assessment based on current results.

by Cormican on Jul 18, 2011 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just think it’s too early is all. Yes it could certainly be worse.

by taco pal on Jul 19, 2011 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

If he really is pitching to contact, then that’s exactly why he’s been bad!

He still wants to get people out without getting scored upon. Pitching to contact usually means your trying to get the ball in play by inducing weak contact. It doesn’t mean that your trying to get hit hard and in turn giving up runs, which seems to be what has happened with Ramirez. I don’t think it’s fair to give him a pass because he’s allegedly pitching to contact.

Don’t you think it’s a little early to make any judgment at all on Ramirez’s 2012 assignment on July 18, 2011?

Umm… no. Yes, he could suddenly morph into a Halladay clone or something, I never said he couldn’t. I do think there’s enough data to say it’s probably not gonna happen though. To this point, he’s been bad and doesn’t deserve a promotion. That’s all I said. If he continues on like this, he doesn’t deserve a promotion. There’s no point speculating on something that hasn’t happened yet like you seem to want to do. I’m going by what has happened, and that is that JCR hasn’t been very good.

This is the kind of thing I really hate about online prospect discussions.

Then don’t read it. You don’t need to comment on everything.

by philiafan14364 on Jul 18, 2011 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

How do you know he’s getting hit hard and giving up runs? Do you have his line drive rate? The whole reason why guys should NOT pitch to contact (at least in the big leagues) is that you don’t have very much control over batted balls, whether they’re weakly hit or hard hit. If you have some inside information about his hitFX stats or inside information that contradicts his claims about pitching to contact, then feel free to share it, but your argument as it stands doesn’t prove a thing.

On your second paragraph, way to straw man. Obviously, there’s no point in speculating on things that haven’t happened yet. Which is exactly why people shouldn’t make snap judgments now. Follow your own advice.

by taco pal on Jul 19, 2011 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Incidentally, philiafan, didn’t you contradict yourself? First you said he’s getting lucky with a .256 BABIP. Then you said he’s doing a bad job of pitching to contact by giving up lots of hard hits. Which is it? How are you so sure of either one, let alone both?

It seems to me like the only rational way of analyzing this is that:
(1) Maybe he’s pitching to contact intentionally on orders from his coaching staff, maybe he isn’t. We can be skeptical, but there’s no way to know for sure.
(2) His BABIP is most probably lucky, but if so, that means by definition that he isn’t giving up a ton of hard hit balls. It also doesn’t necessarily mean he’s doing anything wrong, depending on what the real answer is to (1).

by taco pal on Jul 19, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sweet crap!
Tom Krasovic reports that the Phillies are willing to trade first base/left field prospect Jonathan Singleton for Adams

That sentence is mortifying.

by Cormican on Jul 18, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

That had better be misinformation.

by taco pal on Jul 18, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m nit sure what I find more offensive. That he’s saying were willing to give them singleton for Adams, or that he’s saying San Diego doesn’t think that’s enough.

Remember when trades were about sending someone you didn’t need to someone who needed them, in return for someone you needed that they didn’t need?

Sigh.

I really can’t wait until august 1st.

25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!

by Joecatz on Jul 18, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Like Rick Wise for Steve Carlton?
Just made me laugh to think about unneeded players being traded that often.

by phillyinportland on Jul 18, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Some if this stuff is just hilarious. No offense, but if we wouldn’t include Singleton for two years of Roy fricking Oswalt, why the he’ll would we move him for a set up guy? Especially in a year when it’s a BUYERS MARKET for relief pitchers?

If they move singleton for anyone being rumored about heavily, it’s a big big mistake.

Andre Ethier, or Matt Kemp if the dodgers decide to move them, MAYBE.

And that’s still a big maybe to me, basically because I’m of the opinion that hes undervalued this season. I fully expect him to be traded before he makes it to the majors, buy he’ll bring back a lot more the closer he gets to the bigs, and the higher he climbs up the charts.

25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!

by Joecatz on Jul 18, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Excuse me while I vomit.

"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez

by Jose and the Contrarians on Jul 18, 2011 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

It could have something to do with the fact that the Pads have Rizzo as the future 1B. He’s major league ready and is cost controlled for 5-6 years. It might just be that they want something other than a first baseman and don’t think Singleton can stick in the OF.

On a somewhat related note, I had no idea that Mike Adams is THIRTY TWO!! Here I was thinking he was some young kid because he hadn’t been around very long. I am definitely thinking “no thanks” on Adams at this point.

by philiafan14364 on Jul 18, 2011 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

No relief pitcher is worth a top 50 prospect. End of story.

by Cormican on Jul 18, 2011 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would certainly agree with you. I just think that maybe people are getting the wrong impression about the Padres asking price since they apparently don’t want Singleton. It could be that they just don’t need/want a first baseman and are therefore asking for something else. Singleton’s value to them might not be very high.

by philiafan14364 on Jul 18, 2011 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Been busy the last few days, so just seeing this now, and… yikes. I like Mike Adams plenty, but relievers are relievers. No sense in overpaying for them.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 19, 2011 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Herlis Rodriguez & Willians Astudillo are on a tear in the VSL.

by DannyO on Jul 18, 2011 5:44 PM EDT reply actions  

Those are good names.

by taco pal on Jul 18, 2011 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

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