Unleashing Bastadson
It’s pretty rare that I take issue with Charlie Manuel. The guy’s got his critics, but to me it’s clear he’s the greatest manager in Phillies history, and if he wins two more championships—admittedly a huge "if"—I wouldn’t be shocked to see him one day follow his former boss Pat Gillick into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Heady stuff for a guy whose hiring seven years ago was greeted with derision, and was perceived to be a dead manager walking pretty much right up to the moment when the Phils claimed the 2007 NL East title.
If there’s one criticism of Manuel I buy into, though, it’s that he sometimes sticks with "his guys" too long. This stems in part from loyalty—a generally admirable trait that helps explain why hitters like Pat Burrell, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez have shook off terrible starts to make big contributions down the stretch in a few different seasons—and in part from what seems to be a sense that things go better when "guys know their roles." So it was likely to be an interesting ride when Manuel began the 2011 season with Brad Lidge on the DL and no set closer in place.
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen as tight an entanglement of bad luck with good as what happened next. Jose Contreras started the year as The Man in the ninth inning, converted every save opportunity that came his way… and got hurt. That gave Ryan Madson another shot at the Scarlet C after a two-plus year flirtation with the role--and this time he got on it like Bill Conlin (hey, congrats Bill!) on a free buffet, locking down save after save… until he got hurt. The next man in line was Antonio Bastardo, who completed his stunning ascent from borderline major-leaguer to reliable lefty-slayer to all-purpose setup badass to unhittable closer, converting all seven of his save opportunities to date. (Before this weekend, when his Saturday hiccup against the Padres put a dent in his numbers, Bastardo’s ERA+ for the season was an unfathomable 385; for context, Mariano Rivera’s best ever full-season mark was 319.)
When Madson came back from the DL, it was announced that he’d work his way back into the closer role. In his fourth appearance back, Friday night against the Padres, there he was out there for the ninth inning, in relief of Cole Hamels, trying to lock down a 3-1 lead. He set down three members of the admittedly weak San Diego lineup in order to earn his 16th save.
And even after Bastardo scuffled Saturday—requiring an eighth-inning bailout from David Herndon and a Madson cleanup in the ninth—Manuel delivered on his promise that both Madson and Bastardo would have save opportunities going forward. With Madson having pitched in the team's last three games, Bastardo came back less than 24 hours after his worst game of the season to set down San Diego 1-2-3 in the 9th to secure a Roy Halladay win.
We’re now looking at a possible bullpen usage pattern that would have been unimaginable just months ago. The Phillies might actually deploy their two best relievers based on game situations and other considerations (recent workloads, for instance; hence Madson's unavailability Sunday) that matter rather than based on the odious Save statistic and that notion of "guys in their roles." To be a bit more apocalyptic about it, CHARLIE MANUEL HAS UNLEASHED BASTADSON. The two-headed closer surfaces but rarely, though its pedigree is a strong one--as Roger McDowell (22 saves) and Jesse Orosco (21) of the 1986 world champion New York Mets can attest.
To be clear, Manuel certainly didn't mean to untether this beast: we got here thanks to a set of unlikely and probably unrepeatable circumstances. Were it not for Lidge’s spring injury, the job never would have come open, at least not unless and until he coughed it up; if Contreras hadn’t gotten hurt, Madson might not have gotten another chance; had he stayed off the DL, Bastardo probably wouldn’t have had an opportunity to show that he could handle the ninth inning. But here we are—with two pitchers who have proven that they can do the job but don’t have so much history or ego at stake that they’ll get their panties bunched if it’s the other guy who gets the Save.
(And not to get super-greedy, but it could get even better: if Lidge, now active off the DL, shows that he can be effective, and/or Contreras gets healthy and does the same, and/or the Phillies trade for one more quality relief arm, and/or Joe Blanton or Vance Worley finds himself in the post-season bullpen should the Phillies make it that far, Manuel might have even more latitude to play match-ups and otherwise deploy his pitching assets for reasons more compelling than "because this is how we do it." A true bullpen hydra scenario might yet emerge, for the first time since the 1990 Reds.)
The story of the 2011 Phillies has been a rotation that was billed in advance as the best in the game and the best the club has ever had, and has lived up to that hype. But as July heads into August, the team finds itself with a scaled down but somewhat parallel situation among its relief corps—a happy accident that further boosts the odds of a happy ending to a memorable season.
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Roles are coming...
Since its was mentioned in the article:
bq. “With Madson having pitched in the team’s last three games”
it should come as no suprise when the “established roles” become apparent.
Madson = Closer, Lidge = Setup, Bastardo = Situational/8th, Stutes = 7th.
The only reason for Bastardo was that Madson had been overworked after just coming back. Had Bastardo not choked on Sat, then I assume Lidge would have pitched the 9th to give him a chance to ‘close’ with a large lead and Madson to cover for him if needed.
I could actually see Charlie putting Lidge back to the ‘closer’ role since supposedly Lidge says the intensity (I read that as $$$) makes him pitch better. Anyway, Madson is still the best pitcher in the bullpen. Bastardo is nearly there but as a youngster needs to establish himself. Lidge is more of a ROOGY.
I hope what the article is implying would come true: use Madson for the highest leverage spot, which may be once the starter is getting in trouble or when the heart of the opposing team is coming up. Then use Bastardo/Lidge for the general lefty/righty matchups. Stutes to fill in if needed or if one of them has pitched to many days in a row.
When you mentioned the 1986 Mets I wondered if you would also consider the 1990 Reds as one of the rare modern-era teams using multiple closers. In 1990, the year they won the Series, it looks like Randy Myers was the main guy, with 31 saves. Rob Dibble had 11, mostly in the early season, while Norm Charlton was both starting and relieving, with 16 starts, 40 games from the bullpen and only 2 saves. In 1991 it looks like Dibble and Myers reversed roles, with Dibble the main closer, getting 31 to Myers’ 6 and Charlton’s 1. Prior to 1992 the Reds traded Myers and again went with two closers, with Dibble and Charlton getting 25 and 26 saves respectively.
by phillyinportland on Jul 25, 2011 4:47 AM EDT reply actions
The Reds are mentioned in the last sentence in the second to last paragraph. The always popular bullpen hydra situation.
True – great nickname. I did notice the mention of the Reds, just thought I’d expand on the topic. With bullpens there are always changes, and that group, the Nasty Boys, was together only two years, but they sure left a mark.
by phillyinportland on Jul 25, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Just as long as Charlie Manuel is the Red Skull
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 25, 2011 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I was just going to allude to that.
A true bullpen hydra scenario
As long as they can shoot blue vaporizing guns, I’m pretty cool with it. But I would prefer our bullpen to be a little smarter/more useful than those Hydra stormtroopers.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 25, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
"his guys"
If there’s one criticism of Manuel I buy into, though, it’s that he sometimes sticks with “his guys” too long. This stems in part from loyalty—a generally admirable trait that helps explain why hitters like Pat Burrell, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez have shook off terrible starts
I agree with this completely. If Charlie remained loyal to “his guys” but toned it down a notch or two, it would be perfect. What annoys me about Charlie is that he picks and chooses who’s cool enough to be one of “his guys.” Young middle relievers get one or two outings before he throws them in the trash.
One or two bad outings, I guess—though Stutes and Bastardo himself seem to have won his trust. Of the others, I can’t fault him too much for not sticking longer with the likes of Zagurski, Mathieson and Carpenter.
The criteria seem to include things we don’t see. I remember reading about how Werth argued for more playing time in 2007 and 2008; Manuel’s response seemed to boil down to “make me play you more,” and Werth did. Probably other guys have sulked, and not gotten opportunities.
He generally gets it right, sooner or later. The first year saw way too much Bell and Cormier; in 2009, Lidge hung around far longer than he should have. But he’s been willing to put aside guys like Jenkins and Moyer as well as the Valdezes and Taguchis.
I disagree – that is, I do fault Charlie for not pitching all all three of those guys more. We still have no way of knowing how good any of them are. The sample sizes are minuscule.
I think the difference with Stutes and Bastardo is that they both made good first impressions. Charlie is too much like a fan in that regard (overvaluing first impressions). Not that any of those guys has a prayer of being as good as Bastardo, but I’m not yet convinced that there’s any difference between any of them and Stutes. In his tiny meaningless sample size, Carpenter actually has a better xFIP and SIERA than Stutes does!
I think Bastadson is way better. Especially if we could get a nice photoshop with a Mastodon in there.
by Eaglesadvocate on Jul 25, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I like Madstardo. Madstar sounds like the bad guy in a sci fi b-movie.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 25, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Drawbacks to Bastadson: Very close to being bastard son
Positives to Bastadson: Makes me think of Mastodon, an excellent woolly beast and prog metal band.
Drawbacks to Madstardo: For some reason, makes me think of mustard
Positives to Madstardo: breaks down into Mad-star-do. I like that.
The only downside to this
Is that if Bastardo emerges as a Proven Closer, I imagine Madson walks away at the end of the season. Bastardo is bound to regress some (and the bullpen is so damned volatile by its very nature) that our depth may be more suspect next year.
I suppose a glass is half full argument could be that if Madson shares the Closer role, he might be cheaper to resign. I doubt that to be the case, and I’d hate to lose one of the 3 or 4 actually reliable relief pitchers in baseball.
xFIP has Bastardo at 3.41 this season, SIERA is 2.77. If he regresses to around there, that’s still good enough to be a solid closer. Michael Stutes, whether you think he’s overrated or not, should fit somewhere into the middle or back end of the bullpen and do a solid job. And you have several guys coming up in AA and AAA who project as late inning relievers. The only thing that bothers me there is that those guys are righties, aside from non-prospects Juan Perez and Mike Zagurski. I don’t want to see either one of those guys as anything more than a secondary LOOGY. Bastardo, on the other hand, could be one of the best lefty setup men in the game, rather than being rushed into being a probably-average closer.
Madson as the closer would be a nice finish to the 2012 bullpen, and I don’t think there will be another FA who could fit that role as well. Still, if they sign someone else who is just decent, I think the bullpen will hold up. There are some legitimately talented relievers in the minors this time, and that’s a welcome change.
Bell and Madson, I’d consider fairly equal (and equal cost, I assume). I agree with everything you said, but relief stats are incredibly unreliable from season to season. Madson’s one of the few guys who seems to be able to counteract that volatility and remain pretty reliable.
My argument that Madson is the greatest reliever in Phillies history is basically about his consistency. We’ve had guys who have had better years, but he’s been well above average every season he’s been in the bullpen, and great or near great each of the last four years.
The one question, at least in some minds, was whether or not he could close. That’s now been answered. I wouldn’t overpay for him because I think it’s relatively easy to find a guy who can close in any given year (and the Phillies have a ton of young relief talent between AA and the majors), but that reliability IMO does merit something of a premium.
I’ve said this before, and I’ll reiterate it here. I LOVE Ryan Madson. I want to see him close for us for years to come.
That said, there is no closer in the game, save Mariano Rivera, that is worth, IMO 10-12MM per season for 3 years. Not at the expense of the rest of the roster, not when you have a kid like Bastardo who can likely do the job, and not when you’re tied into the contract in the 2nd and 3rd year.
one yar 12 MM, sure. Maybe even 2/24.
But I don’t like any 3 year deal for any reliever.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
Btw…
http://gcobb.com/2011/07/25/phillies-aim-for-pence-at-trade-deadline/
Article says we should give up Worley, Brown, AND Singleton for Pence… shoot me in the face please.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 25, 2011 12:18 PM EDT reply actions
Signing Pence will also make it financially more difficult to re-sign Cole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins who both have contracts that expire at the end of the season. Still the Phils will deal with that when the time comes and it should not deter them from going after Pence.
That’s the funniest part. And then this comment…
I am so sick of watching Brown lets move him. He looks like he has never played the outfield. Right field is right field on any level. He had the excuses last year, then they shipped his .145 BA from winter ball. When is enough enough. I am trying to win NOW! He cant help me this OCT. I dont CARE about 3 years from now. I care about this OCT!
These must be the same kinds of people who run up tons of stuff on their credit cards to satisfy themselves RIGHT NOW, somehow thinking it’ll all just work out in the future.
Sure it’s a 33% interest rate and I’m flat broke… but we are at the beach now and I need a Jet Ski!
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 25, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
The thing is that I kind of understand their mindset. Most of these “fans” who feel that way because they only watch the Phils in the post-season or when they are winning anyway… so why not sell the farm to make them happy.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 25, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, Hanlon’s razor…. Never attribute to malice what can adequately explained by stupidity.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 25, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Unfortunately, the Phillies can’t just file for bankruptcy and make it all go away. My wife has a friend who has filed 3 times, and each time, the week before they file: shopping spree. Why not? The judge will make all the charges go away. Last time they bought a car during the spending spree. Judge disagreed with letting that go away.
Not everyone has a good frame of reference or cares about repercussions.
To me the real question really remains, do you give up a little too much to help solidify your OF and Batting Order for the next couple of Seasons (Pence or Adams), or do you give up a little too much for a 3 month Rental player (Beltran)..
How about if you don’t give up too much, period? Since giving up too much is the definition of a bad trade? How’s that for a concept?
Well I could see “overpaying” slightly (nothing like the above lopsidded as all hell trade) if we had a team where all of the significant pieces were going to be free-agents AND we had no chance or resigning them. In that case… I might sell of a few pieces of the farm at a slightly above Market price if it meant I could significantly improve my one chance at a championship. None of the above are true about the Phlllies.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 25, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
At first glimpse, the price might seem too much but if the Fightins get Pence that would significantly reduce the Brown’s role. As far as I’m concerned, getting Pence would eliminate the need for Brown, so I believe it makes sense for the Phillies to give up Brown in the deal.
And as far as Singleton, why not trade prospects for proven talent. Anybody begging for Kyle Drabek’s return?
first off people hear that a prospect is good, and expect them all the be ryan braun when he gets to the majors; that does not happen, ever.
EVER! No prospect has ever developed into Ryan Braun… he was created in a lab.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 25, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe this dude things they literally grow in the ground—ala farm.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 25, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry for posting it… I live away from Philly now so I need y’all to help me just hate on this utter stupidity.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 25, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I WOULD NOT DEAL WORLEY AT ALL…NO WAY…A 22 YR OLD ARM LIKE THAT COMES AROUND NOT TOO OFTEN…. AND HE GETS TO LEARN FROM SOME OF THE BEST IN LEE, ROY AND HAMELS
I bet he said the same thing about Kendrick haha.
Samesis
That is one of the worst. Yes, it is rare to get a #3/4 quality starter. They only come around every 2 or 3 years.
MLB free game of the day!
Phils game today is free to watch online @ mlb.com…woohoo!
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
Also, looks like the players will sign today for football.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 25, 2011 12:47 PM EDT reply actions
Anybody else watch Lidge today and say “Damn his slider looks Nasty” to themselves…
…Only to change their mind after seeing Mike Adams? YOWSA.
I’m sorry, but when you can get Utley to backwards K and basically not let him take the bat off his shoulder when hes in the kinda zone hes been in, You good. You REAL good.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
Nobody in sec 203 knew who he was and were infuriated that he was striking out Chase and Ryan
by FanSince1993 on Jul 25, 2011 5:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Seriously
whatver we plan on giving up for beltruptence take it, throw in Rizzotti and give it to San Diego for Adams.
Well rested halladay, hamels, lee, Oswalt with Adams, madson, lidge and bastardo in the pen?
Good luck in the playoffs anyone else.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
So, you’re saying there’s a chance we could make the playoffs with the current offense?
by phillyinportland on Jul 25, 2011 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions

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