Phillies Pitching Probables (July 26-31, 2011)

I just thought this picture was funny.

This week's chart.

Day Pitcher G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP GB% LD% FB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP SIERA
Tuesday Worley 12 10 62.1 6.93 3.75 0.29 .254 44.4 19.1 36.5 3.1% 2.02 3.20 4.01 4.09
Lincecum 21 21 136.1 9.64 3.43 0.53 .291 50.1 18.8 31.1 7.3% 2.90 2.82 2.99 3.07
Wednesday Hamels* 21 21 144.1 8.36 1.81 0.50 .261 52.6 15.6 31.8 6.6% 2.62 2.50 2.77 2.77
Zito* 7 7 37.2 4.78 3.82 1.19 .241 40.4 21.9 37.7 11.6% 4.78 4.92 4.53 4.92
Thursday Kendrick 24 9 73.0 3.45 2.84 0.99 .267 47.5 18.4 34.0 9.6% 3.45 4.74 4.65 4.77
Cain 21 21 138.1 7.55 2.34 0.46 .270 40.6 20.8 38.6 4.5% 3.06 2.88 3.52 3.50
Friday Halladay 21 21 155.1 8.52 1.10 0.52 .305 51.9 16.5 31.6 6.5% 2.55 2.24 2.53 2.55
Morton 18 18 107.1 5.28 3.77 0.34 .312 60.9 21.4 17.7 6.5% 3.69 3.69 3.88 3.92
Saturday Lee* 21 21 147.1 9.04 1.83 0.79 .301 44.7 21.1 34.2 9.4% 3.05 2.77 2.73 2.76
McDonald 20 20 109.1 7.74 4.28 1.07 .320 38.5 20.5 41.0 9.7% 3.95 4.35 4.24 4.18
Sunday Worley 12 10 62.1 6.93 3.75 0.29 .254 44.4 19.1 36.5 3.1% 2.02 3.20 4.01 4.09
Karstens 21 17 114.2 4.79 1.49 1.33 .237 44.9 17.2 38.0 12.4% 2.28 4.41 3.89 4.02

Observations below the jump:

- The Giants series may be the first one all season in which the Phillies are at an overall disadvantage in starting pitching. Thank goodness the Giants' lineup sucks.

- It will be nice to have Barry Zito on the mound this week as a reminder of "What Can Go Wrong When You Trade Prospects for Proven Veterans." Think anyone will get the lesson?

- Not a starting pitcher, but check out Sergio Romo's SIERA this year: 0.89!

- I see Cliff Lee's strong recent peripherals have once again moved him ahead of Cole Hamels in xFIP and SIERA.

- When the Phillies played the Pirates in Pittsburgh, it was mildly amusing to see Charlie Morton face off against his fellow Roy Halladay impersonator, Kyle Kendrick. Morton, of course, has been one of the season's big surprises - after being awful for many years, he changed his delivery by modeling it after Halladay's and has had success this year. Now he gets to face the man himself. It should be pretty weird-looking.

- Morton relies heavily on a sinker (see his GB rate in the chart), which ought to make very vulnerable to lefthanded hitters. And, in fact, he did have a huge platoon split early in the year (which he benefited from, since he was facing a lot of righty-heavy lineups at the time). They seem to have normalized a good bit over the last couple of months though - his xFIP split has moved from 3.14/5.82 in mid-May to only 3.42/4.61 today. When the Phillies faced Morton in Pittsburgh, they stacked the lineup with lefties and it didn't really work. We'll see what happens this time around.

- There are some similarities there between Jeff Karstens' and Vance Worley's numbers, huh?

- No rest for the weary. The Phillies' next off day won't be until Thursday, August 11.

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