I wanted to title this post "The Best Team Seldom Wins..." but determining the best team is a much more complicated endeavor. And in any case, we are most interested in the Phillies, and the one thing we know about the Phillies, as laid out by David S. Cohen, is that they have the best record: At the Trade Deadline - Are We Forgetting The Phillies Have the Best Record in Baseball? and More on the Phillies' Best Record in Baseball
Which is great, and I'd much rather have the best record than not, but it's by no means a guarantee of success in the postseason, and as additional rounds have been added to the playoffs, the chance that a lower-winning team will win the World Series has increased substantially.
1903-1968 (Before Divisions)
57% = Team with most wins in regular season wins the World Series (37 of 65)
2.5 = Average difference in wins between the WS Champion (98.0) and the team with most wins (100.5)
1.6 = Average ranking in wins for the WS Champion
1969-1993 (LCS but no LDS)
28% = Team with most wins in regular season wins the World Series (7 of 25)
4.7 = Average difference in wins between the WS Champion (95.7) and the team with most wins (100.4)
2.9 = Average ranking in wins for the WS Champion
1995-2010 (Current format - LDS and LCS)
19% = Team with most wins in regular season wins the World Series (3 of 16)
7.1 = Average difference in wins between the WS Champion (94.9) and the team with most wins (102.0)
4.3 = Average ranking in wins for the WS Champion
| 1903-68 | 1969-93 | 1995-2010 | |
| Team with most wins is WS Champion | |||
| Yes | 37 | 7 | 3 |
| No | 28 | 18 | 13 |
| Yes % | 57% | 28% | 19% |
| Total | 65 | 25 | 16 |
| Average wins | |||
| WS Champion | 98.0 | 95.7 | 94.9 |
| Team with most wins | 100.5 | 100.4 | 102.0 |
| Difference | 2.5 | 4.7 | 7.1 |
| MLB ranking in wins | |||
| WS Champion | 1.6 | 2.9 | 4.3 |
| Team with most wins | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Difference | 0.6 | 1.9 | 3.3 |
and graphically:
(see full table for 1969-2010 below)
This doesn't mean a team shouldn't try to improve itself. Only that in the playoffs there are no guarantees that a team will advance no matter how good it was in the regular season.
Does being dominant in the regular season hellp? Yes, it does, but it's still far from a guarantee -- 4 of the 7 teams that won at least 108 games went on to win the a WS Championship:
| Most Wins | WS Champ | No | % Champ | ||
| 108-116 | 4 | 3 | 57% | ||
| 103-107 | 2 | 7 | 22% | ||
| 95-102 | 4 | 21 | 16% | ||
| (Wins extrapolated to 162 games for the shortened seasons) | |||||
Playoffs are a Crapshoot
That phrase SHOULD be a cliche, but unfortunately it's not used nearly enough. You can try to improve your team to improve your chances in the postseason, but in the end you're only moving the needle slightly, and you're doing so at a cost. If you do it by trading good prospects, the cost is that you're reducing the chances that you will reach the playoffs in the future, and you're adding cost by replacing young cost-controlled players with much more expensive veterans, which in turn limits your flexibility in building a future contender.
| World Series Champion | Most Wins | |||||
| Year | Team | Wins | Rank | Most W's | Teams | Wins |
| 2010 | SFG | 92 | 5 | No | PHI | 97 |
| 2009 | NYY | 103 | 1 | Yes | NYY | 103 |
| 2008 | PHI | 92 | 5 | No | ANA | 100 |
| 2007 | BOS | 96 | 1 | Yes | BOS, CLE | 96 |
| 2006 | STL | 83 | 13 | No | NYM, NYY | 97 |
| 2005 | CHW | 99 | 2 | No | STL | 100 |
| 2004 | BOS | 98 | 3 | No | STL | 105 |
| 2003 | FLA | 91 | 7 | No | ATL, NYY | 101 |
| 2002 | ANA | 99 | 4 | No | OAK, NYY | 103 |
| 2001 | ARI | 92 | 6 | No | SEA | 116 |
| 2000 | NYY | 87 | 9 | No | SFG | 97 |
| 1999 | NYY | 98 | 3 | No | ATL | 103 |
| 1998 | NYY | 114 | 1 | Yes | NYY | 114 |
| 1997 | FLA | 92 | 4 | No | ATL | 101 |
| 1996 | NYY | 92 | 3 | No | CLE | 99 |
| 1995 | ATL | 90 | 2 | No | CLE | 100 |
| 1993 | TOR | 95 | 4 | No | ATL | 104 |
| 1992 | TOR | 96 | 2 | No | ATL | 98 |
| 1991 | MIN | 95 | 2 | No | PIT | 98 |
| 1990 | CIN | 91 | 4 | No | OAK | 103 |
| 1989 | OAK | 99 | 1 | Yes | OAK | 99 |
| 1988 | LAD | 94 | 3 | No | OAK | 104 |
| 1987 | MIN | 85 | 9 | No | DET | 98 |
| 1986 | NYM | 108 | 1 | Yes | NYM | 108 |
| 1985 | KCR | 91 | 6 | No | STL | 101 |
| 1984 | DET | 104 | 1 | Yes | DET | 104 |
| 1983 | BAL | 98 | 2 | No | CHW | 99 |
| 1982 | STL | 92 | 4 | No | MIL | 95 |
| 1981 | LAD | 63 | 3 | No | CIN | 66 |
| 1980 | PHI | 91 | 6 | No | NYY | 103 |
| 1979 | PIT | 98 | 2 | No | BAL | 102 |
| 1978 | NYY | 100 | 1 | Yes | NYY | 100 |
| 1977 | NYY | 100 | 3 | No | KCR | 102 |
| 1976 | CIN | 102 | 1 | Yes | CIN | 102 |
| 1975 | CIN | 108 | 1 | Yes | CIN | 108 |
| 1974 | OAK | 90 | 4 | No | LAD | 102 |
| 1973 | OAK | 94 | 4 | No | CIN | 99 |
| 1972 | OAK | 93 | 3 | No | PIT | 96 |
| 1971 | PIT | 97 | 3 | No | OAK, BAL | 101 |
| 1970 | BAL | 108 | 1 | Yes | BAL | 108 |
| 1969 | NYM | 100 | 2 | No | BAL | 109 |
| Shortened seasons (G): 1995 (144), 1981 (111), 1972 (156) | ||||||
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