SB Nation Philly Editor's Pick
The Phillies' Window Isn't Closing Unless You Want It to Close
by taco pal on Jul 27, 2011 11:45 PM EDT
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PrintThe moronic argument of the hour goes something like this: "So maybe Dom Brown will be great in a few years. But that doesn't matter, because the Phillies' window is closing! You're not going to have Rollins, Utley, Halladay, and friends in a few years. You're only going to have them for a short while longer. So you should trade Dom (and Jon Singleton, and Jarred Cosart, and Vance Worley) for whoever will give you the best chance to win RIGHT NOW."
It's true that the Phillies can't keep Rollins, Utley, Halladay, and friends around until, say, 2016. But do you know who the Phillies can keep around until 2016? Dom Brown, Jon Singleton, Jarred Cosart, and Vance Worley, that's who. And Brody Colvin, Antonio Bastardo, Sebastian Valle, and hopefully a whole host of other guys (they're not all going to make it, but some of them will). In contrast, do you know who they'll have around in 2016 if they trade all their youngsters now? Jack sh*t, that's what.
If you don't want the window to close, the most effective way to solve that problem is don't close the window! Make no mistake about it - nobody who's making the argument above is sincerely calling for trades to be made as a response to this supposed "window" problem. Rather, they're creating the "window" problem as a response to their desire to call for trades to be made. They want to believe the window's about to close, because that would then justify their childlike impulse to open their shiny new toys and gorge themselves on all their cookies right at this instant. And listening to their advice will only make the problem they profess to be so concerned about into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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Agree
Just for the record, I always sleep with the window open.
by phillyinportland on Jul 27, 2011 10:48 PM EDT reply actions
aw fuck!
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
Nailed it.
And stuck the landing as well.
Blog all things Philly sports over at Stop 5. Blog all other sports at The Whole Take. South Jersey native. Fan of the simple things.
Excellent.
Rec’d
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Taco... your post is so fooked up its offensive
what you did was intentionally go out of your way to take a legit point of view and twist it all around into something No one is saying
good job …. NOT
" You dont seem like a scientist ... You seem more like a Game show host..."
I’ve heard a lot of people saying it, actually.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, and now NotGraphs. Fun!
by FuquaManuel on Jul 28, 2011 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
is this a joke?
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
by DirtyWaters on Jul 28, 2011 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Charlie Manuel himself
"I see a window with our pitching of two or three years," Manuels said. "That’s our solid time to win. We have a real good chance to win the World Series. It’s hard for me to look down the road."
-CSNPhilly.com
by TwistyWristy on Jul 28, 2011 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions
oh I see … Because Cholly says / thinks that everyone else has to have the same perspective…. um Ok….
" You dont seem like a scientist ... You seem more like a Game show host..."
You said no one was saying it. He just gave you an example of someone who is.
Ed Snider is a crotchety old fuck.
That is all.
Thank you. Personally, I find the fact that Charlie Manuel has this mind-set slightly nerve-wracking and concerning. Dannijd wrote a great comment on coaches vs GM’s and while it’s true, the difference between Charlie Manuel and fans or media talking heads is that as the coach, Charlie actually has a mouthpiece and maybe some kind of input. Amaro doesn’t have to listen to him but he does hear him. I’d feel that much more comfortable if Charlie wasn’t talking about needing a right handed bat or “seeing windows”. Stay strong Amaro!
by TwistyWristy on Jul 28, 2011 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Charlie just wants that to be the window because his contract is up in 2013. He’s 67 now, he’ll be 69 when his contract expires. It certainly can’t be out of the realm of possibilities that Charlie is saying that because he wants to increase the odds (however small of an increase it may actually be) now because he won’t be around in 2016, can it?
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Wow that was one of those things above that I thought VAwxman had to be kidding.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 28, 2011 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
He both is and isn’t right- As a manager, his job depends on winning now. And the pitching that is in the big league club does indeed only have a few years, and wanting management to do whatever it takes to be better in the short term makes sense, as he may be gone by the time the piper of a barren farm system must be paid.
However, this is also why Amaro and ownership are the ones making the final decisions- their jobs are to look at the long run- to provide for now while serving as guardians of the team’s future. Because their stakes in the team are tied to the longer term, they are less likely to trade a potentially big piece of the future for a small amount of improvement today.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Jul 28, 2011 12:44 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
http://twitter.com/#!/mfehnel16/status/96419737659125760
http://twitter.com/#!/MichaelFrancis/status/96298577860640768
http://twitter.com/#!/jcrod/status/94032695608360961
http://twitter.com/#!/coachparker82/status/94536947678187521
http://twitter.com/#!/NYSportzNut/status/94471843716677632
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
by Justin F. on Jul 28, 2011 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Crap. All the links failed.
Just copy and paste the URL in order to see the tweets. Sorry, guys!
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
no this isnt it at all
“… Rather, they’re creating the “window” problem as a response to their desire to call for trades to be made. They want to believe the window’s about to close, because that would then justify their childlike impulse to open their shiny new toys and gorge themselves on all their cookies right at this instant….."
window closing ? NO… that isnt it at all
persoanlly I think there is legit case for either making BIG trade or standing pat.
BUT to issue is NOT the window is closing.
The Issue is that the path back to the world series goes through SF.
( yeah ATL might beat t SF BUT since we dfont seem to have a problem beating ATL …. I am assuming arguendo that we are meeting SF in the NLCS in 2011 )
tonight we were given 5 outs in the 7th inning at Home and we got 1 run out of it.
SF ’s Line up is NOT nearly as good as our but they always seem to get clutch hits against us yet we cannot seem to get the BIG hit against these guys.
beating Zito is not relvant for post season.
Brown is doing a wonderful impression of stevie wonder on the outfield.
One day he MIGHT be good…. even great… one day he might be the next Wes Chamberlain.
Pence is Better Now and will be Much better in the Phillies Line up as oppsoed to the awful astros.
Bottom Line As the team stands now I dont think we beat SF IN NLCS in 2011
" You dont seem like a scientist ... You seem more like a Game show host..."
VAwxman, I didn’t say that everyone who wants to make trades is making this argument. What I said is that everyone who’s making this argument is making a bad argument. If what you’re saying isn’t what I said, then this post isn’t about you. Learn to read.
The second word of the blog is moronic I guess this is trying to stir up something, but the so called moronic argument is a straw man because even people like Manuel who rightfully recognize a window with no guarantee that current prospects will pan out into a WS contender AND want to make a trade because they INTELLIGENTLY realize the Phils are in a great position and could improve their offense, do not use said legit arguments to ever once say to sell off the farm. No one is saying that except the poor “moronic” straw man. Most people rightfully suggest trading maybe 2 prospects for a guy like Quentin who sure could help get one of those “flags that fly forever.”
Do you really think that’s what most people are suggesting? Either you only know the right people or you’re just not paying attention. This is far from a straw man. It’s probably about half the fanbase, at least.
by philsandthrills on Jul 28, 2011 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I am mostly on the phillies MLB msg board a few ppl there overreact to a brown mistake and say trade him but I don’t take that very seriously. Most people suggest reasonable trades, at most 2 good and one middle prospect for pence or Quentin. The thing is the article splits hairs maybe he is trying to be controversial but I don’t see anyone saying give brown, cosart and singleton for anybody. And the window argument is real. There is a WS contender now and no guarantee in the future. So most people make a completely legit case, and he just tacks on brown into the trade and calls it moronic. I agree keep Brown so does almost everyone though.
then don’t comment here if you are so opposed to it. 98% of the commenters here agree with it, yet the vocal minority get upset when people tell them they aren’t right.
"My grandmom's favorite grandson, ask my grandmom" --Rone
by layout ultimate on Jul 28, 2011 2:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree keep Brown so does almost everyone though.
Like I said, this just isn’t the truth.
Hell, most people don’t know the prospects at all, beyond the ones they are told about by the media like Brown.
by philsandthrills on Jul 28, 2011 2:43 AM EDT up reply actions
It is the truth there is hardly a person I hear say trade Brown and I still think Phil Sheridan said it to be controversial and sell newspapers. Maybe you talk to one subsection of people and I talk to another but it is the truth in my subsection.
I try to avoid them, actually, but that doesn’t mean that they don’t exist.
by philsandthrills on Jul 28, 2011 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions
You should try phillies.com msg board well it redirects to MLB. There is a whole ongoing trade thread it is very intelligent discussion. But like someone said 98% of people here agree and then most agree there so who are these people saying to trade Brown maybe they are more vocal. But that was why I said straw man. This blog takes most people’s legit points, tacks on brown into a trade I don’t hear anyone saying, and then calls it moronic. I don’t even care for the word moronic he is saying the argument not the person but why use such a word. I am a big Phillies fan too it is an exciting fun time I like this blog sometimes but I came here and to voice my issue with this one that is all.
Okay. But, at least agree that he’s not arguing against a straw man here. It’s not something you think is reasonable, and that’s great. But there are a lot of people out there that are willing to give up a metric shit ton of value for a minor upgrade merely because they think the present is the only time frame that matters.
I mean, even among the Phillies MLB board, there’s a lot of stupidity. I’ve read some of that trade thread and sure, there are few that are knowledgeable fans and they’ve posted in it a lot, but there are some really bad suggestions and dumb ideas in it as well.
by philsandthrills on Jul 28, 2011 3:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Well I still would take issue with using the word moronic even about someone else’s idea, even if it is really bad. I guess you can say there are people who would trade Brown, but really his example is someone who says trade Brown, Singleton, Cosart and Worley I have not heard anyone say trade all 4. Ifnthere is someone out there saying that, then ok it is not a straw man but I havent heard it. I have heard bad suggestions though, yes. Also the window argument he dismisses but it is legit. It is not at the window will necessarily close, but people who say go some for now bc u have a clear WS contender and you don’t know about later it is not a bogus argument.
Basically, you’re an idiot (no offense).
Tonights game means nothing. “The path to world series goes through SF”?!? OR PHILADELPHIA! I won’t bother repeating the arguments of people more articulate than I; just know that you’re wrong.
by FanSince1993 on Jul 28, 2011 12:29 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He didn’t attack the author, he just disagreed. I don’t hold VAwaxman views on the subject but I hope he’s allowed to offer a dissenting opinion.
I won’t bother repeating the arguments of people more articulate than I; just know that you’re wrong.
So do you follow blindly as part of the lot?
Fair enough, I should have referred to his opinions as idiotic, not waxman himself, although his initial tone was pretty attacking toward TP.
I also should have replaced “more articulate” with ‘less drunk’.
Finally, no, I do not follow blindly but felt another KEEP DOM! post was unnecessary given all the like-minded folks who have so extensively made the case
by FanSince1993 on Jul 28, 2011 3:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I doN’t Understand YOur Usage of cAps.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, and now NotGraphs. Fun!
by FuquaManuel on Jul 28, 2011 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Well I don’t understand yours what with the xFIP’s and the wOBA’s
/kidding
by Daniel Solomon on Jul 28, 2011 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions
dude we dont get along… so I will say this once… I am dead tired and I am functioning on 4 or 5 hours of sleep…. so get off my back
" You dont seem like a scientist ... You seem more like a Game show host..."
Then why are you still trying to partake in arguments on here?
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
He likes to get into internet fights.
by philsandthrills on Jul 28, 2011 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m at the combination Pizza Hut and Taco Bell!
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, and now NotGraphs. Fun!
tonight we were given 5 outs in the 7th inning at Home and we got 1 run out of it
that’s right …“tonight”… which wasn’t last night or any other night of the past month or the playoffs. We can bitch and moan about the Phils needing to make a trade, but regardless, in order to win it all, you have to be lucky….no one player improves your chances in a crap shoot. If that were the case, the best team or the team that acquired the best player at the trade deadline would win every year and that just doesn’t happen. Would Pence improve the Phils this year? Yes. Would it drastically improve their chances of winning the World Series? not really.
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
by DirtyWaters on Jul 28, 2011 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
But...but...
Didn’t you hear? the Giants got BELTRAN! We lost to them!!! Only scored one run!!! Dom brown made a BAD PLAY!!! Today of all days!!!
WE LOST!!!
Kendrick is pitching tonight!!! Beltran I’ll be there!!!
There’s a good chance well lose 2 in a row for the first time in like 7 WEEKS.
The sky is falling!!
Quick, give up Worley and Brown, just get SOMEBODY!!!!!!
I’m going to sleep. Somebody wake me up August 1st.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
1. Learn to type
2. what
3-9. see 2
10. Honestly what’s the difference in the argument for trades that you’re making and the one that taco pal is refuting above. You want to sell the farm to win now because, well, that’s what you WANT. Others want to sell the farm to win now because they feel the “window” is closing. Both want the same thing, and both are idiotic.
by FearTheTurtIe on Jul 28, 2011 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions
1… I am dead tired functioning on 4-5 hours of sleep….
3-9.. Its BIG difference. I dont want to clean out the farm system for NO reason….
I think we have a problem beating SF.
By putting the argument like this " You want to sell the farm to win now because, well, that’s what you WANT.." it seems to me that you are ignoring a legit point.:
what can we do to increase the chances of beating SF IF…IF… we play them at NLCS in 2011
" You dont seem like a scientist ... You seem more like a Game show host..."
what can we do to increase the chances of beating SF IF…IF… we play them at NLCS in 2011
How, exactly?
by FearTheTurtIe on Jul 28, 2011 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Trade for Matt Kemp?
Other than that, not much.
by philsandthrills on Jul 28, 2011 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions
window closing ? NO… that isnt it at all
That may not be your argument, but that is other people’s argument. I linked to some tweets, and even Charlie has said as much.
The Issue is that the path back to the world series goes through SF.Technically the Phillies have the best record in the NL and technically the road to the World Series in the NL would go through Philadelphia, not San Francisco. But that’s semantics.
( yeah ATL might beat t SF BUT since we dfont seem to have a problem beating ATL …. I am assuming arguendo that we are meeting SF in the NLCS in 2011 )
tonight we were given 5 outs in the 7th inning at Home and we got 1 run out of it.Sometimes you get beaten by a good pitcher. The Yankees were thoroughly annihilated by Cliff Lee in two World Series games in 2009. That turned out all right for them in the end.
SF ’s Line up is NOT nearly as good as our but they always seem to get clutch hits against us yet we cannot seem to get the BIG hit against these guys.And/or lucky hits. You mention the Phillies do not get “BIG” hits against San Francisco, but sometimes that is more luck dictated than anything. A perfect example of this is the bottom of the 8th inning in Game 6 of the 2010 NLCS. Carlos Ruiz sends a hard-hit line drive that went right to where Aubrey Huff was. After hitting it hard like that, Ruiz has little to no say in the exact spot the ball ends up. If that goes 5 or 10 feet to the right or left of Huff, it is a base hit and the game is very likely tied at 3 in the bottom of the 8th. But, Ruiz got unlucky, Huff was right there, the Giants got the double play at 2nd base, the inning ended, and minutes later the Giants won the NLCS. There is nothing the hitter, Carlos Ruiz, did wrong there. So when you say the Phillies do not get “BIG hits” against the Giants, that really is not true, as there are plenty of other examples of this. It is just they have been especially unlucky against the Giants. Again, if that is a few feet to either side of Huff little higher and he misses it, that is about as “BIG” of a hit as the Phillies would have gotten all season long.
beating Zito is not relvant for post season.If someone gets injured or if Tim Lincecum finds himself battling the squirts again in October and can’t start, the Giants could very likely turn to Zito.
Brown is doing a wonderful impression of stevie wonder on the outfield.You can’t expect to throw him in there and within a few months, play RF as well as Jayson Werth did. He needs time to develop and smooth out his rough edges. Chase Utley had some problems with his defense as well as first. These are rookie mistakes, and they happen to just about every rookie.
One day he MIGHT be good…. even great… one day he might be the next Wes Chamberlain.And in the next two years, that guy who might be great is going to be on the Phillies for only $450K per year. After those two years, he will be arbitration eligible and have three more years of team control after that. Someone with the ceiling Brown has according to numerous scouts and experts with that much team control is certainly worth keeping around, even if the beginning days do not exactly bring back memories of Richie Ashburn.
Pence is Better Now and will be Much better in the Phillies Line up as oppsoed to the awful astros.You are right about that, Hunter Pence probably is a better player now. But he has been extraordinarily lucky this year, has been regressing for the past two months, is in the prime of his career and probably won’t get too much better than this, and only has two more years of team control. As for your last point here, he will probably look worse in the Phillies line-up than he has in the Astros line-up this year because he will likely continue his BABIP regression.
Bottom Line As the team stands now I dont think we beat SF IN NLCS in 2011The playoffs are a crapshoot where any team can beat any team as a seven-game sample size is not a long enough or big enough sample where the better team and/or the team with the better record always wins. Also, total runs scored in the 2010 NLCS: Giants 19, Phillies 20.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Right.
Because the signed Carlos beltran who, in 87 at bats has his hit 0 home runs in that ball park.
Because Dom brown made an error hustling to try and catch a ball that 90% of the RF in baseball aren’t fast enough to get to.
Because Matt Cain and his xFIP defying self had a great night.
Yeah. Carlos Beltran would have hit a home run, caught that ball and knocked Cain around.
Gimme a fucking break.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
ehhh, at this point I think we kidan have to admit that Cain’s FIP is an outlier that ain’t regressing.
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
by Ed Van Chimp on Jul 28, 2011 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions
He’s been doing it for an awfully long time.
by All ur Aces R Belong to Us on Jul 28, 2011 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Wonderful work Taco Pal
If I weren’t on Mobile, I would rec this a thousand times!
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Jul 28, 2011 12:26 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
But you can only rec articles once!
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, and now NotGraphs. Fun!
by FuquaManuel on Jul 28, 2011 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Come on now, she’s trying to be positive. Let her have this moment.
Ed Snider is a crotchety old fuck.
That is all.
Multiple accounts?
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
by Ed Van Chimp on Jul 28, 2011 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Wouldn’t it be great if dannijd and FM were the same person?
Time is not made of lines. It is made of circles. That is why clocks are round.
-Michael J Caboose
by TheOrangeCone on Jul 28, 2011 11:35 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The moronic argument of the hour goes something like this: “So maybe Dom Brown will be great in a few years. But that doesn’t matter, because the Phillies’ window is closing! You’re not going to have Rollins, Utley, Halladay, and friends in a few years. You’re only going to have them for a short while longer. So you should trade Dom (and Jon Singleton, and Jarred Cosart, and Vance Worley) for whoever will give you the best chance to win RIGHT NOW.”
I totally agree with you on just about every aspect of this post, although I wouldn’t go so far as to say that anyone who differs with this opinion is “moronic”.
It’s true that the Phillies can’t keep Rollins, Utley, Halladay, and friends around until, say, 2016. But do you know who the Phillies can keep around until 2016? Dom Brown, Jon Singleton, Jarred Cosart, and Vance Worley, that’s who. And Brody Colvin, Antonio Bastardo, Sebastian Valle, and hopefully a whole host of other guys (they’re not all going to make it, but some of them will). In contrast, do you know who they’ll have around in 2016 if they trade all their youngsters now? Jack sh*t, that’s what.
Agree with you again, the farm system is a crucial key to success in the future, and I’m not advocating trades here, after what I’ve seen given up and what teams are asking for, I’m praying Rube stands pat at the deadline because I don’t want to see Cosart, Valle, or Singleton go, and most certainly not Dom Brown.
What I don’t agree with, is that you seem to imply that every prospect on the farm will just rise through the system with no setbacks and will be ready to step in immediately once the core of this team is gone. Yes, Cosart, Singleton, and all the guys you’ve mentioned are the top prospects in the system, and yes, they could have great success in the future, but I think you overvalue our prospects a bit and I get the impression that you think all of them will be solid major league regulars (sorry if I got the wrong impression), and I can’t agree with you on that, when we all know the attrition rate of prospects.
I’ve always believed the key to having a great team is establishing a core through your farm system and getting good production out of your homegrown players cheaply, and acquiring veteran talent as you go through either free agency, or the trading of prospects. And while their isn’t anyone on the market that I would advocate trading for, especially after finding out what the cost would be to acquire certain players, I think we slightly overvalue the prospects we have, and expect them all to succeed because of their “potential”. Potential is just that, not all guys live up to it.
What would be left with when all our core guys (Rollins, Utley, Halladay, etc.) are gone, and only a few of those guys pan out? It’s a delicate balance between scouting, payroll restraints, the talent you have available, and knowing the talent that you need to acquire, it’s really the beauty of baseball if you ask me, it’s so hit or miss.
I’m not here to advocate a trade, or talk about a “closing window”, or anything like that, I’m just saying not all prospects pan out, and while you could have an extremely talented, young, cost-controlled team, you could just as easily have a team of a few good players, and a bunch of Brandon Wood’s.
Please note, he called the argument “moronic”, not the people who are making it.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, and now NotGraphs. Fun!
by FuquaManuel on Jul 28, 2011 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not here to advocate a trade, or talk about a "closing window", or anything like that
Good, then you have no objection to anything in my post, except for the things you made up because of poor reading comprehension. Thanks for your extremely lengthy, irrelevant response.
You know, I’ve been on this site a lot man, and I’ve never seen anyone so condescending as you, you act like you know everything about baseball, and anyone that has a different opinion than you is “moronic.”
If you can’t show respect to anyone, whatever.
If you don’t want a condescending response, then don’t say that he said something he didn’t.
He literally states,
(they’re not all going to make it, but some of them will)
I don’t see how that could be interpreted as
What I don’t agree with, is that you seem to imply that every prospect on the farm will just rise through the system with no setbacks and will be ready to step in immediately once the core of this team is gone
by philsandthrills on Jul 28, 2011 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Please note, he called the argument itself “moronic” and then proceeded to make an argument defending that position. Nowhere did he call the people who make the argument moronic.
But right now you are proving that your own misinterpretation of what he said is actually truer than what he said.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, and now NotGraphs. Fun!
by FuquaManuel on Jul 28, 2011 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions
The reason I stated this was because he listed specific names, such as Cosart and Singleton, I was implying that even the STUD prospects don’t make it, and it could very well be a possibility.
Nothing more than that.
And he specifically said not all of them would make it. So either you didn’t read the article, or you were insinuating he said something he didn’t say.
Bob.
by The Dark on Jul 28, 2011 12:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I’m pretty condescending. I think this is my first reply to one of your posts because I’m afraid of a 1400 word reply.
Respect is earned.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
And who exactly should I earn my respect from? I give everyone on here respect initially because I respect people’s opinions even if they’re not the same as my own. Even if someone didn’t originally understand what I said, or misread my argument, I’m not going to belittle or condescend them just because they misunderstood, or disagreed, I’ll try to reason with them in a respectful manner, that may not be the protocol for some people here, but it’s my own, simple as that.
By the way, sorry that I elaborate on my posts, I will from now on, try to shorten up my “1400” word posts.
I thought we traded this guy. . .
"My grandmom's favorite grandson, ask my grandmom" --Rone
by layout ultimate on Jul 28, 2011 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions
TP, I don’t comment regularly but I’ve been reading this site for several years. Your post is 100% correct, but there is something to be said for being a gracious host.
In TP’s defense, it is extremely, extremely annoying when people make comments that indicate they haven’t read the original post carefully.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, and now NotGraphs. Fun!
by FuquaManuel on Jul 28, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I get the impression that you think all of them will be solid major league regulars (sorry if I got the wrong impression), and I can’t agree with you on that, when we all know the attrition rate of prospects.
He may have misread a bit but he was pretty careful to not be accusatory. It was his impression and interpretation and I he was extremely gracious about it. The response wasn’t.
by phanatic's phloozies on Jul 28, 2011 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Granted, I can see why he finds it annoying, but he’s not just a regular anonymous poster.
As a Blog Lord, he’s one of the people that sets the tone for this blog’s readership, and while his opinions are generally ones that I find myself agreeing with, I find his short fuse a bit unpleasant.
Yeah, yeah, I know. Don’t let the door hit me on the ass on the way out.
Lawlzors, I will confess to having a shorter fuse than I should at times, but this wasn’t the first occasion on which I’ve felt that that guy mischaracterized my opinions. If I don’t feel like I have an honest interlocutor on the other side, then that will affect my approach.
Regarding pp’s comment, I didn’t view that disclaimer as sincere. I viewed it more as a butt-covering admission of guilt.
You know that he explicitly says not all the Phillies prospects will pan out, right? It’s right there in the fucking article, second paragraph. Also, regarding this:
It’s a delicate balance between scouting, payroll restraints, the talent you have available, and knowing the talent that you need to acquire,None of the “talent” the Phillies have the opportunity to acquire via FA this year (or at least none of the names bandied about) will be around to have any significant impact on the 2016 Phillies. So, uh, yeah.
by FearTheTurtIe on Jul 28, 2011 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Dude. I disagreed with you. Deal with it. I also used strong language. Imagine that. What’d you want me to do, write something along the lines of “Great points and all, and I agreed with everything you said, but here’s a long, wordy response filled with a bunch of unnecessary verbiage specify how I really disagree with a point you didn’t make in your article.” My bad man.
by FearTheTurtIe on Jul 28, 2011 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Well then, while I’m at it, I might as well go ahead and say fuck Duke.
by FearTheTurtIe on Jul 28, 2011 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not gonna check out your profile because I don’t feel like it, but fuck your favorite team, lol. Do we both feel better now? We’re shit talking on the internet, gotta love it.
It’s right in my name, which also should explain why I said what I said. You don’t have to look far.
by FearTheTurtIe on Jul 28, 2011 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Lol, seriously though dude, I’m not trying to get personal or anything, just fuckin around, can we both agree that we support the Phils and want nothing but for them to win? Sound good?
I can get behind that. No hard feelings
by FearTheTurtIe on Jul 28, 2011 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions
hey there, take it easy on my Alma mater
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
well, considering I replied to the post that said “fuck Duke”…what would you think?
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
I’m also still unsure as to how me disagreeing with you because you made an argument stating something that’s actually COMPLETELY UNTRUE makes me a dick.
by FearTheTurtIe on Jul 28, 2011 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
It wasn’t you disagreeing with me, it was the way you said it, you could’ve came at me with an intelligent, thought-out response, but I guess I just pissed you off so much by disagreeing, and yea too much “verbiage” can really cause chaos in a response.
My response was thought-out and rather intelligent, or so it seemed to me. What made it not so? The use of profanity? Also, why is “verbiage” in quotes; are you implying it’s not actually a word?
by FearTheTurtIe on Jul 28, 2011 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions
I feel the Phillies will be spending money on big name free agents, so by the time 2015 rolls around or whatever year you want to select, it’s not like they will have to rely on homegrown talent. We’ll be able to get a Cliff Lee in the future.
It’s a serious franchise now, and a serious team, with serious owners. That was the real problem facing the window closing – to win now because no one will care to try and win again. But they will care, so this window is open for as long as they want it to be.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
What were they before, a half-serious franchise, a joking franchise? They must have been kidding half the time; that explains the late 90s
by FearTheTurtIe on Jul 28, 2011 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
You can’t fill a team with free agents only. That’s setting yourself up for disaster. This team isn’t built on free agents, and a lot of the best players on this team aren’t getting anywhere near what they’d earn in free agency. Utley, Victorino, Chooch, Rollins, Hamels, Bastardo, all get paid well under their true value.
by philsandthrills on Jul 28, 2011 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I’d even throw in Halladay, as he took a below-market value contract to sign here.
by philsandthrills on Jul 28, 2011 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
And Lee, since he took less than the Yankees offered, which makes him a below-market contract.
Bob.
by The Dark on Jul 28, 2011 12:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
(yes, we got him in FA, but we shouldn’t rely on discounts like that from free agents)
Bob.
by The Dark on Jul 28, 2011 12:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If the Phillies aren’t winning a lot, payroll will go down and there will be less money for FA’s. You have to have lots of contributions from within to stay competitive.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
I don’t mean they’d fill the team with free agents, but that they will fill holes in their team with the best available players. Adding Cliff Lee makes a big difference than adding Kyle Lohse.
I don’t expect the Phillies in 2015 to be a team made of Free Agents, and I am very confident on their drafting and scouting (though I wish they’d spend a little more.), but they have shown that desire to get one or two big pieces in the offseason. That’s a big change. Remember when the Phillies would add a 6th inning bullpen guy at the deadline and call it a contending team? That’s not where we are right now. And I think it makes a huge difference.
Not to mention how attractive Philadelphia is to players now. I doubt the next JD Drew wouldn’t want to sign here.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
Well, my fears are that if they do hit a bump in the road and fans stop packing the CBP joint, will they still pay for the big pieces?
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
It’s a bit of an odd idea. To hit that bump, they’d have to have not paid for big pieces. So, which happens first, they stop paying for big pieces and fans leave, or fans leave and then they stop paying for big pieces?
I feel this city has always been a baseball town. And while I don’t think we will win the division for a century, we will always be competitive, and our drafting and scouting would need to fall off immensely before I’d worry about hitting that bump. It’d require an amazing amount of bumbling and incompetence to ruin this team enough for fans to stop showing up.
Here’s an interesting question, how many did they fit in Veteran’s Stadium on average? Do we have any numbers? And I’m not talking the last year.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
Actually, no- just because you pay for a “big piece” as you call it does not mean they are successful here. Things happen- injuries, players just not succeeding in the way their teams would have expected (Uggla, Werth).
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Jul 28, 2011 9:31 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
We will be paying at least $125,000,000 for the next 6 years for THE BIG PIECE, so I would say yes.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
Serious question: How much enjoyment do you derive from a championship? A week? 2 weeks? A month on the outside? How much enjoyment do you derive from a good team such as we have now? 6-7 months at a minimum? perhaps more?
I always think what the Braves did 1995-2005 was one of the more impressive things in sports. Sure they managed only 1 world series in that time, but for 11 straight years they won the NL East every year. They never took a step back to ‘rebuild’. And by the end of the run the roster bore little resemblance to what it was when they began it. When is the Yankees window? When is the Red Sox’s window?
When is the Phillies window? At this point it may be the same as the Red Sox and Yankees, which is to say perpetually open with the resources to continually sign free agents away from smaller markets and sustained by shrewd trades that acquire talent without overly deteriorating the farm system.
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
by DirtyWaters on Jul 28, 2011 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions
How much enjoyment do you derive from a championship? A week? 2 weeks? A month on the outside?
Still basking in the glory of 2008 from time-to-time. In the offseason I pull out the DVD and watch the final inning of game 5.
I've tried 'em all, I really have, and the only church that truly feeds the soul, day in, day out, is the Church of Baseball.
by Mace Chutney on Jul 28, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
WS win= lifetime of enjoyment
perhaps because I get off living in the past. E.g., I’d trade every one of the Eagles postseason wins during McNabb’s glory years for one Superbowl win, and would have gladly suffered through some bad years for one. That said, I tend to agree with the gist of the argument here, that we’re not going to improve enough to make our WS win odds change significantly, and to merit any of the proposed trades. I’ll forego the 0.5% increase in WS win odds this year and keep Brown, Worley, or any of our best pitching prospects. However, I have doubts about several of our position prospects, and wouldn’t be too upset over their loss.
The 1964 factor
I completely agree with this post.
However, I think Wandering Moses nailed it earlier today when he suggested that there is a “1964” factor in the fanbase, compounded by years of not winning. Almost no one wants to wait. Many fans want to absolutely have a sure thing NOW. “All in!” They would trade everyone at Clearwater if they could get 2 months of Pujols (and of course, put him in RF). Beyond the “he really likes us!” factor, to those fans getting Cliff Lee also meant another ace in the rotation. Now some of the fanbase wants a HOFer in the outfield.
One additional point strengthening TP’s position is that MLB has the Phils in debt purgatory right now. That is lessened by cost-controlled players.
Kyle Kendrick, Mike Zagurski and the rights to Danys Baez for Carlos Beltran.
1964
Such a fateful year with so much baggage attached to it. One thing that may have started then (or at least become noticeable) was the effect of a big midseason signing. In this case we’re talking about someone to play first base for the Phillies that year. Started out mostly with Roy Sievers, a vet who was sold to the Senators midseason with a batting average under .200 and four HRs. John Herrnstein was a rookie who likewise failed to hit very much. So, with the final two months looming and a chance to win their first pennant in 14 years, the Phillies traded two prospects who never did anything for veteran slugger Frank Thomas of the Mets. And if the Phillies had held on that year, the Thomas deal would be remembered for the great move it was. Thomas delivered everything hoped for, but he broke his hand in early September and his replacement, Gold Glover Vic Power, did not provide any offense during the final three weeks of the season. Getting Cliff Lee in 2009 was very much in the tradition of 1964.
by phillyinportland on Jul 28, 2011 4:46 AM EDT up reply actions
1966
After coming within arms reach of a title 2 years earlier, the Phillies made an in-season trade to bolster their playoff chances. Acquired were pitchers Bob Buhl and Larry Jackson. Dealt was 23-year-old rookie Ferguson Jenkins. Seems Mauch wanted a veteran presence at the time.
Jenkins outperformed both players and went on to be a Hall of Famer. Phillies missed the postseason that year and for another decade afterwards. Trading Brown for Pence would be very much in the tradition of 1966.
I specifically mentioned this trade in an earlier thread. Right now, IMO, trading Cosart or Brown (or if you like, maybe 2010 Bastardo, since he is an even better analogy to 1966 Jenkins) has that potential of future chaos, especially in the context of Beltran or Quentin, and as you suggest, maybe even Pence.
Kyle Kendrick, Mike Zagurski and the rights to Danys Baez for Carlos Beltran.
Thomas was arguably the worst acquisition ever
as he F’d with Allen and it took the franchise 12 years to recover.
You may be right but the bad blood between Allen and Thomas may not have been there at all in 1964, when for the time he was there Thomas was probably the team’s third best offensive player. Allen was willing to forgive the team and the city enough to rejoin the organization in 1975.
by phillyinportland on Jul 30, 2011 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Well there’s only a small window of opportunity to post to it before it gets lost in the morning links, prospects reports, etc.
by TwistyWristy on Jul 28, 2011 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions
There is a window.
Charlie wasn’t lying. I know alot of people are alot of excited about our young prospects with good reason. But to think that this team with this roster is going to be a contender with only our young prospects to add to the mix in even 2014 is crazy.
Our opening day starting 8 was amongst the oldest in the league this year. Just because we will highly probably win our 5th NL east in a row, doesn’t mean we are destined to be there for the next 5.
We have the team to beat up on the NL in the reg season now but we don’t have the consistency with the Bats to win a WS right now. We need help. When you have a chance to win the WS, you have to break some eggs along the way to get it done. Rarely nowadays do you win the WS without some specialty acquisitions along the way. I say make the deal.
I actually agree that there’s a strong chance that the ~2014 Phillies won’t be all that great. The current team’s core is probably closer to decline/departure than the high-ceiling prospects (mostly in A ball or below) are to being quality major-league starters.
But the difference between a mediocre down year or two and a much longer period of decline is precisely maintaining a steady supply of young, cost-controlled talent.
As for winning the WS with the team as currently constituted, the Giants won the WS last year with a worse offense than we have now. The playoffs are a crapshoot, and though the Phillies will probably enter the playoffs with a better chance than any other single team, that chance won’t be higher than, say, 25%. And adding a guy like Hunter Pence isn’t going to change that.
So you diminish your chances greatly in the future for a year where your chances of getting to the playoffs are already at 99%?
And once that is over, the playoffs are a crapshoot where the best team does not always win. Hunter Pence, Carlos Beltran, Melky Cabrera, etc. won’t change that.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Rosey but not absurd: we'll be great in 2014 because there's a decent chance
Halladay and Lee will still be studs, Cole will be even better than them, and Worley will be the best #4 in MLB. Howard will still be driving in 130+. We will be better at both corner outfields than we are now, as those positions are the easiest to replace/improve. And we will prob be at least as good at 3B, because it won’t take much to get better offense there. We’ll be wheeze kids 2 but good for a few years. 2016 all depends if we can develop 3 more young guys other than Brown and Worley.
We will have money to spend because all the dead wood about to leave next year will allow us to resign Cole and Rollins and Victorino, and buy one or two 110 OPS+ OFers. If we need to replace Rollins we ’ll need a good fielding, 100 OPS+ SS (10 mil/yr).
Big question is how healthy Chase and Victorino will be.
But do you know who the Phillies can keep around until 2016? Dom Brown, Jon Singleton, Jarred Cosart, and Vance Worley, that’s who. And Brody Colvin, Antonio Bastardo, Sebastian Valle,
No love for Stutes? For shame TP. For shame. Murphy would be all over you for this.
Ed Snider is a crotchety old fuck.
That is all.
Or John Mayberry?!?!!? He’s a future star because he was a 1st round pick twice!
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
by Ed Van Chimp on Jul 28, 2011 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions
So you say you don't want to break up the farm...
So who might be available in August that would answer some of these “needs” we are told we have?
I felt in 09 one of the biggest reasons the Phils lost was a $13MM Designated Hitter in the other dugout. Unfortunately the Phils had to swing and miss with the likes of Ben Francisco and Matt Stairs (yes I know Ibanez was the DH in game 1 but Benny was still in the starting lineup). I feel slightly more comfortable with Mayberry and Gross Load as the first bats off the bench/DH than what they had in 09 but is there a bat that can help in the postseason for just a few more scheckles on the 2011 budget?
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
@boknows71
Damn, I hate when I use “we” when talking about the teams I root for.
I go to the box, feel shame.
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
@boknows71
I’ll be there for you. A pet peeve of mine as well.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 28, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Kinda unavoidable, and that’s why IMO they need to either get rid of the DH or apply it to both leagues.
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
by Ed Van Chimp on Jul 28, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Late to this game….
First of all, wonderful post, TP.
Secondly, you nailed it on the head that the whole thing is a solution in search of a problem. This isn’t just a problem with baseball, but in life. However, this being a baseball universe, the itch that people have to make a trade just for the sake of doing it is just getting to be incredibly annoying, when even smart people like my father and brother are clamoring for a trade to get done, consequences be damned.
They say that babies will turn coherent men into blubbering fools; the corollary is that the trading deadline turns even the most rational fans into rabid busybodies. Thank God for The Good Phight – a beacon of rationality in the insane waters.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
The hardest thing to do sometimes is to resist the temptation to “DO SOMETHING!”
Quite often, the best deals are the ones not made.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 28, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, the Politician’s Fallacy rears its ugly head over and over again.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Jul 28, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions
TRADE DREAMS
I dreamt about trades last night. Seriously. It was one of those time shift dreams, where you go from one reality to the next.
In the first, I was super excited, because I was in the clubhouse at CBP with my son, waiting to meet Kelly Shoppach, who we had just traded for (along with BJ Upton) for Ben Francisco and Brian Schneider. I should note that this was likely brought on by the fact that I have known Kelly’s wife since elementary school, her dad lives four doors down from me, and she emailed me to say shes going to be in town for a reunion this weekend, and she wants to get together with my wife and her kids to catch up, right before I fell asleep. I suggested a barbecue, by the way…
Not a bad trade, right?
Wrong. before Shoppach came out, I was immediately transported to sunday, and I’m on my lanai, talking to Jen (Kelly’s wife) and Kelly, about how pissed I was to find out that we traded Worley, Singleton, Cosart and Francisco to Houston for Wandy Rodriguez and Hunter Pence.
I can’t wait till monday.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
While rehabbing at Betty Ford, I have learned that stress is a trigger. Don’t let it take you to dark places, JoeC.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 28, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Let’s all remember that there wouldn’t be a supposed “championship window” if the Phillies had shipped off Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels and Carlos Ruiz when they were prospects for the Hunter Pences of the world. If you want an endorsement for the importance and the viability of the farm system, take a good long look at this roster.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Jul 28, 2011 10:23 AM EDT reply actions 7 recs
This makes way too much sense for people to understand.
Great point made.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Jul 28, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
This
On the other hand, this roster would not be what it is (or has been since 05-ish or so) without trading for:
Lidge (think happy 08 Lidge, not bad Lidge or decrepit Lidge), Halladay, Lee, and Oswalt. Or other players who have come and gone since.
Or without buying Polanco and Raul and Lee.
The best point is that it will take a mixed approach, and luck, and avoiding bad deals. And giving up Brown (plus others), would be a bad deal if it meant getting Pence or Quentin.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 28, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
No doubt. So to tie this back in to the overall point, the problem with the “window” argument is that it prioritizes immediacy over and above actually getting the better end of the deal. Certainly if the Phils can acquire a veteran with a value of X for prospects with a value of 0.9*X, then it’s OK for them to make the trade. But that has nothing to do with any “window.” If you bring fears of a window into your cost-benefit analysis, it places a finger on the scale that shouldn’t be there.
Agreed that the “win now” really changes what is kind of equivalent to a “discount rate” allowing the decision-maker to come up with any result wanted through an equivalent to perhaps a post hoc rationalization, except it’s sort of a pre-hoc rationalization. Maybe it’s just bullshit, I guess.
All the future benefits are disregarded in favor of looking at “NOW NOW NOW” benefits. The player development/scouting process has definite risks associated with it that teams are familiar with — see “bonuses, signing”. If they used the discount rate for signing bonuses that I sense some would apply to the trade analysis, it would be crippling to the team.
Applying a uniform, consistent approach across the board makes a lot of sense and would provide an institutional safeguard against poor “heat of the moment” decision making. In cases where the team is on a razorblade re: making the playoffs (a la the Brewers) or other under pre-determined criteria developed during “cooler heads” moments in the off season, the discount rate wouldn’t be changed arbitrarily. The payoffs would, which would make the decisions pretty clear.
My hope is that, despite pressure from Charlie and Halladay (after Sunday, he said something like “trade ’em all!” in (sort of) jest) and probably others, that RAJ has the courage to tell them all “no.” That is a really, really hard job.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 28, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
The accumulated filth will foam up about their waists and all the players and fans will look up and shout "save us!"... and I'll whisper "no"
by taco pal on Jul 28, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Rorschach : Dr. Manhattan :: Phillies : Yankees/Red Sox?
:(
by perfectdepth on Jul 28, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
To maintain the original analogy, I think it would be more like
Rorschach = Amaro
Manhattan = Monty
Veidt = Any number of local media a-holes
But I don’t think Monty will be tempted to the dark side
none of you understand. I’m not locked up in the NL East with you. you’re locked up in the NL East with me.
by perfectdepth on Jul 28, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
WFB!
It stands athwart history, yelling Stop!
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 28, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Applying a uniform, consistent approach across the board makes a lot of sense and would provide an institutional safeguard against poor "heat of the moment" decision making.
Wait, can you rent out your services to the Flyers? Or at least fax an article on this to Homer? And maybe go back in the time machine to do this?
Kyle Kendrick, Mike Zagurski and the rights to Danys Baez for Carlos Beltran.
Wow. Betty Ford, still.
I think I got the point across, but that was teetering over the edge of incomprehensible.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 28, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Although the defense of an outfield with Bourn, Vic and Werth would’ve been pretty awesome. They might’ve been just as successful. I imagine Bourn, Vic, Werth, Utley and Rollins would have been the best baserunning and defensive team in the league.
There will always be pros and cons to every move and non-move. The only way the window closes is if the Ruben makes a bunch of wrong decisions in a row.
Well maybe.
But we weren’t anywhere close to contending for anything when those guys were prospects, so why would we trade them? The Giant series showed us that the Phils, despite the better record are behind the Giants now. And now they have Beltran. And before anyone says “well yeah but Lee and halladay didn’t pitch”. 2 things.
1)It wouldn’t have mattered as you don’t win games scoring one run no matter who you have on the hill.
2) SF chewed both those pitchers up last year in the playoffs.
As bad as SF’s lineup is, ours is worse in regards to matchups with their pitchers. While everyone gets giddy when the Phils beat up on bad pitchers, they won’t see any of them come playoff time.
And for all of you in the “we gotta keep Worley at all costs crowd”, why would the Phils not deal Oswalt and his one year left on his contract?
See what I did there?
by Billygphilly on Jul 29, 2011 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions
So many things wrong
The Phillies most certainly were contending when those guys were prospects, Rollins excepted.
The Giants series showed us no such thing. It showed that in a short series the better team doesn’t always win.
How are the Phillies going to trade a guy on the disabled list?
You got me on the Oswalt DL.
But unfortunately you will see more Giant domination of our lineup next week. Unless…..
Dom Brown is not gonna be a star in this league. Terrible outfielder with a pretty swing. He’s gonna be a decent player. Not an indispens
able component. He’s will not have the impact on the league that Chase Utley, Ryan Howard or Jimmy Rollins had. Think Aaron Rowand or Michael Bourne.
by Billygphilly on Jul 29, 2011 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions
We can agree to disagree on Brown. It’s certainly possible, even likely, that he doesn’t turn into a star – most top prospects never live up to their ceiling.
But here’s the thing – Hunter Pence isn’t really a star either. He’s a bit better right now than Brown, but he also makes like 12x as much money, and will make more next year. A team that has so many resources tied up in a few players needs cheap filler, and Brown is that, at least.
Just saw the deal.
Everybody should be happy right? Just Cozart and Singleton and not Brown. As others have stated, we have our new LF’er for next year too. I think it’s gonna work out well. Kept W or’lly and kept the guy that most knowledgeable( semi-knowlegeable is me:-)) fans thought was indispensable.
by Billygphilly on Jul 29, 2011 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions
"But unfortunately you will see more Giant domination of our lineup next week. "
LOL
http://www.thegoodphight.com
I thought the first link was actually to follow Sal Paolantonio (why I thought that when he’s a football guy, I don’t know. Oy)…
Just…face to palm. And repeat. That is all.
by Airedale260 on Jul 28, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
The extent to which hating Brown has become trendy now is deeply distressing (but certainly not surprising given how many times we’ve seen this happen before).
It’s a totally shitty situation because if Ruben Amaro doesn’t make a trade, people will be mad, and a large percentage of those people will inevitably resent Brown for Amaro’s inaction. Because in their minds, it would have been fair to trade Brown for any one of the Phillies reported “targets.”
So we’ll have that, on top of these dumb shits who are ALREADY looking at Brown as a bust 200 PA into his first season as a full-time ML starter at age 23 (and I understand that there is significant overlap) and he’s already being set up as the next McNabb, or Iguodala, or Abreu, et cetera ad infinitum. It sickens me to see the early stages of this cycle play out yet again.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, and now NotGraphs. Fun!
by FuquaManuel on Jul 28, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Could you imagine the shitfest that would have occurred if we (blogosphere and twitter) were around in 1973 when Mike Schmidt hit .196 in his rookie year with an assload of strikeouts?
TRADE HIM!! USELESS!! ALL HE CAN DO IS HIT HOMERUNS AND STRIKE OUT!!
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Jul 28, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Not us at TGP, but rather the WIP’s and the Crossing Broads…
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Jul 28, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, that crowd will resent him unti he:
1. drives in the winning run in a decisive post season game, or, you know,
2. dives for a ball in the WS like he did last night and makes the catch (was it a bad judgement play? sure. Would Carlos Quentin have even GOTTEN to that ball? NO.) or
they’ll also continue to resent him if:
1. He doesn’t tear it up in the post season and we don’t bring home a ring.
2. He makes a defensive mistake in the postseason, that leads to a decisive loss.
They will continue this path until roughly July 1st 2013, when he makes his first all star game, because he’s hitting .310/.400/.550 with 16 HR’s and 55 RBI.
And he’ll make that game as a PHILLY, and all will be right in the universe.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
As rational as I am, I have always, still do, and will always continue to loathe Donovan McNabb
by FearTheTurtIe on Jul 28, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
whereas I stopped following the Eagles the day he was traded (this is in part because I don’t care enough about football, too, so it gave me as good a timing as any)
This town’s hating of Donovan McNabb never made sense to me.
by EJL on Jul 28, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
@SalPal16
@TheGoodPhight Last 28days: Brown (61 AB):13 R/0 HR/4 RBI/.311 BA/.417 OBP/.393 SLG Mayberry (48 AB): 4 R/3 HR/14 RBI/.313 BA/.340/.667 SLG
I don’t even…
Just to review:
R – 13 for Brown against 4 for Mayberry; advantage Brown.
BA – Brown’s .311 against Mayberry’s .313; push (two points is inconsequential)
OBP – Brown’s .417 against Mayberry’s .340; advantage Brown.
He just proved our point for us.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Jul 28, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Brown has much more upside then Mayberry… but you neglected the SLG which Mayberry has a HUGE edge on.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 28, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay, so Mayberry is showing more power over the past month. Do you really expect that to stay that way forever? They say Mayberry’s new batting stance has changed him, but I’m still skeptical. And even if it has, Brown has the potential to pass him in due time.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Jul 28, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I obviously agree that Brown will very likely be a much better hitter than Mayberry—that is what I meant with the upside comment above (not to mention Dom is younger). I was just pointing out that your slicing of the stats wasn’t telling the whole story. The runs are especially suspect based on differences in number of at bats.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 28, 2011 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions
As I told a buddy of mine, I could accept sending Cosart & Singleton to Houston for Pence
Provided Wade throws in Evan Longoria.
/s
Seriously, though, I agree with everything TP said. I would much rather we stay competitive in the years to come with a well-stocked farm system. I was always under the impression that failing to pay attention to player development is, historically, what had kept the Phillies in the NL’s basement for so long.
I want a WS win this year especially for our pitchers’ sakes. But, I don’t want to lose out on being at least competitive for all the years to come, too. I don’t mind us being the Yankees or Red Sox of the National League; sure, we can’t possibly win every year but we’d still have a decent chance. Makes for much more exciting watching.
That’s pretty much it, yeah. Under Bill Giles’ leadership, the ownership actually did spend some money (Lance Parrish, Gregg Jefferies, the exorbitant extensions for Dykstra and Daulton) but they spent it stupidly, and they utterly trashed the farm system. They traded away or otherwise lost at least half of the team’s best prospects, and somehow invariably chose the ones that would pan out the best as the ones they would give up (Ryne Sandberg, George Bell, Mark Davis, Julio Franco, Keith Moreland, Lonnie Smith, Mike Lavalliere) while holding onto the guys who would fail (Jeff Stone, Rick Schu, to a lesser extent Kevin Gross, Bruce Ruffin, Juan Samuel). And their draft picks were horrible, and they closed all their Latin American academies.
hey now, the Phillies did pretty well with Samuel. 12.8 WAR from 1984 to 1987, then flipped him to New York for Dykstra. you really can’t complain too much about that.
by perfectdepth on Jul 28, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
I think too, one of the things that makes me feel better about the nonsense is that WHile “winning now” is certainly important, and “the Window” is half open, whatever, what the casual fan fails to realize is this.
While the ultimate goal is to win the World Series, the REAL GOAL of the organization is to make it to the postseason every year. The want sell outs, but they want them this year, next year, and the years to follow. Players LIKE BROWN, 9and to a lesser extent, Worley) are critical to doing that.
R
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
the notion many people seem to have that this season, or any season, is a failure if the Phillies lose in the NLCS or WS again drives me nuts
What would you call them if not a “failure”?
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
@boknows71
any visit to the NLCS or WS is a successful season; obviously you want to win it all, but the post-season is, as noted often, wildly unpredictable, too much so to make it your basis of success or failure
are you serious?
A failure is being a phillies fan in the late 80’s dude. Were the Braves a failure when they were freaking AMERICA’S team, and winning the division every year for a decade because they only won one WS?
we’re talking about a game where the pinnacle of offensicve success is measured by the guy who does it WRONG 70% of the time.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
I guess on some level you can call a playoff loss a failure in that it isn’t the result you ever want. The important thing is to always recognize that it’s a failure that you can’t really control or avoid (very little, at least). So you shouldn’t blame yourself if you get to the postseason and lose there.
Alternatively, it’s a “failure” in the same sense that it’s a “failure” when you play a poker hand correctly and still lose. OK so you lost, but that doesn’t mean you should have done anything differently.
I think the distinction is that It may be a failure in execution, but it is not a failure of the system.
Bob.
by The Dark on Jul 28, 2011 12:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I was asking yola’s opinion. I’ve followed this team for a several decades so I’ve seen failure. I call 09 a shame and ’10 a friggin disappointment but that is just me and my lil opinion.
/not looking to argue
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
@boknows71
certainly 2009 & especially 2010 were disappointing finishes, and emotionally it sucks to lose when you’re that close… but if you step back a bit after the dust settles, and you kind of have to, I think it’s clear that those were both successful seasons. Also, it’s not like the Phillies got to those series and then stank up the joint. They just lost. Somebody has to.
My bad
i took your comment to mean you were suggesting anything short of a championship is a failure.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
Yes they were.
So were the Buffalo Bills HTH.
by Billygphilly on Jul 29, 2011 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Gelb striking the same tone this morning
The worst argument to trading Brown I’ve heard is that the Phillies’ window is closing and they must win now. For sure, they have to win now. They invested $175 million in this team and that is why they should seek to improve at the trade deadline. But trading Brown only negatively affects the proverbial window.
overall a pretty solid column.
dear philly.com better copyediting plz
The worst argumenttofor trading Brown
by perfectdepth on Jul 28, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Award for best use of dog-whistle words:
Brown doesn’t bust it to First doesn’t bust it to balls in Outfield and makes too many Dumb Plays in Field and basepaths…. Relacitrant in fixing Hole in his Swing Uncoachable.. Rollins Type attitude without pedigree. — Kevinmac
Award for pithiest stupidity:
Upside doesn’t win championships. — veritas1325
here’s a nice one:
…is Brown flubbing it in RF so he WON’T be a valuable trade chip?…just a thought… — bingbangbong
yes, it’s a thought…
by yolacrary on Jul 28, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
that’s fantastic. Dom Brown was on the grassy knoll!
by perfectdepth on Jul 28, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I prefer the one where Judith is cutting that dude’s head off.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 29, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions
There’s always Hagen to counteract the solid with the stupid
The Phillies face similar pressures but might have to decide if it’s worth giving up, say, outfielder Domonic Brown. Difficult as that would be, he’s still a raw talent – he lunged awkwardly at a sinking line drive by Nate Schierholtz in the seventh inning last night; the play was scored a double but it let the decisive run score – and in the right deal they’d probably have to grit their teeth and include him. And if they can trade Brown, they can trade anybody.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
And David Murphy
Still, last night’s 2-1 loss to Matt Cain and the Giants reinforced a lesson the Phillies learned last October: Everything can be rendered meaningless if they do not find a way to hit San Francisco pitching when it counts.
And
But much to the chagrin of a front office that saw one of its top trade targets drop off the board yesterday, the Phillies’ lineup turned in a repeat not of its recent solid play, but of its performance in last year’s National League Championship Series.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
Murph is aggravating in the way that he flows back and forth from enlightened journalism to sheer meme repeating that isn’t even worthy of a lowly WIP caller.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Jul 28, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Dr Hagen Honeydew spreading the germs of stupidity
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
by DirtyWaters on Jul 28, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Wise words from Hymen
#phillies seem to have all but given up on pence after big offer rejected. #braves last team in on pence. #tradedeadline
And breathe.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Or nobody. At this point, I think the Phillies are going to stand pat.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Jul 28, 2011 1:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I have a tough time believing that was the offer as well as Houston’s answer being no.
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
@boknows71
Yeah I’m a little skeptical too. But it worries me. I can’t imagine that Houston would have said no from thinking it wasn’t a good deal for them, but what if Houston said no because they legitimately thought it was possible to squeeze Brown out of the deal by shaking Ruben a little harder?
I shudder at the thought of 3 prospects + Brown for Captain Underpants. Forget mortgaging the future, that’s an outright default.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Jul 28, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Real or not, (and I have my doubts) the fact that its out there leads me to believe that Pence is gonna get traded. That info doesnt get out accidentally. Everything is said for a reason. Especially based on the timing, and how it coincided with the Beltran news.
If it was true, and Wade turned it down, he turned it down because either:
1. The new owner is crazy and is really holding out for a haul
2. He wants to make sure its the best deal he’s gonna get, be it from us, or someone else (Braves).
3. He knows NOBODY wants Philly to get Pence, or any other decent bat.
That was a direct message to Atlanta, and to some extent to RAJ, if he’;s holding out for say, Worley or Brown.
My bigger fear, though, is that the stumbling block isn’t getting more for Pence, but that Wade will only deal him if the taker takes something else, like Wandy or Myers…
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
wouldn’t it be odd to extend both Wandy and Myers in the off-season and then force them out in a trade involving another player? I can see trading either or both of them, but insisting they be included strikes me as unlikely.
There wasn’t a deal on the table before the season with a new owner who wants a 60mm payroll. They need to move one or both, and neither are garnering much interest.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
yeah, I just added it up. They’re f’ed if they want to keep it at 60MM
Carlos Lee’s salary (18MM) kiils them. If you figure 10MM and 6MM in arbitration for Pence and Bourn, if they keep Wandy and Myers, they have exactly 6MM left for their infield, entire bench, bullpen and three starters to get to 60MM
Sumpin gots ta give.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
Houston salaries for 2012
Carlos Lee (UNTRADEABLE) 18mm
Brett Myers 11mm
Wandy Rodriguez 10mm
thats 39mm bucks. Pence will get close to 10 and Bourn close to 6 in arbitration. thats 54MM
which leave 6MM in payroll for your infield, bench, relief ptchers, and 3 other starters.
Somethings gotta give.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
A survey of really bad contracts has kinda been on my mind since Howard’s deal. Carlos Lee is right there with the worst. Howard, while not good, is not catastrophic. Vernon Wells, too. K-Rod. Yow.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 28, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
a big part of that is that the Phillies spend enough money to live with overpaying Howard as long as he’s at least a decent first baseman. the Astros didn’t spend enough before to manage Lee’s contract, let alone now.
by perfectdepth on Jul 28, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Their risk profile for a bad contract is different. I absolutely agree that the Phillies clearly have more flexibility to deal with an error than do the Astros. I also think that Howard is a much better player than Carlos Lee, so there are at least those two factors demonstrating Howard’s deal isn’t a total catastrophe. This is a nascent, developing thought still. I’m still hatching it, man.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 28, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
well see in 2014
Carlos Lee made 8,500,000 in 2006.
He hit .300 with an .895 OPS with 37 HR and 116 RBI. He was 30, and it was his best season to date.
he put up decent numbers the next 3 years, but never what he did in 06. Plus, they backloaded the contract SO BAD…
11.5, 12,5, 19, 19, 18.5, 18.5
I’ll never understand that philosophy. Does it ever work out in the last two years?
Vernon Wells deal was pretty similar.
I can’t think about Howards last three years and the Trade nonsense in the same day….
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
I’m almost more concerned about 25 MM to CLiff lee for his age 37 season in 2015 than I am Howards 25 MM.
But in 2015 we owe Cliff and Ryno 50MM between the two of them.
thats more than the Indians, Pirates, PAdres, Rays and Royals ENTIRE 2011 payroll.
Dom Brown is still arbitration eligible in 2015, BTW…
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
wonderful! hopefully eddy will get teheran, delgado, or vizcaino
by 1shkabibles on Jul 28, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Looks like Big Time Timmy Jim will be starting against Krazy K tonight.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Jul 28, 2011 11:30 AM EDT reply actions
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Jul 28, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
It’s only going to be one?
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Jul 28, 2011 1:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Hey! What happened to your positive outlook? =]
by TwistyWristy on Jul 28, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
What team right now can depict the Phillies in 5 or so years?
Times change, like the climate I change. Check the forecast. I reign.
by secondroundpick on Jul 28, 2011 11:46 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
The Astros! OHNOOOOEZZZZ!!!
A not-inconsiderable quantum on information needed to answer to that question may be revealed in the next week.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 28, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Is anyone else concerned that the the more irrational fans are trying to use that as an inditement on the ability of the Phillis to hit the Giants come October? I’d say if the Giants can only strike the Phillies hitters can put the ball in play in 30 of 31 at bats they’ll be able to scrape a few runs together.
Love the post TP.
I am having one problem with people arguing with those who are saying the window is closing. I saw several times above where people mentioned possible hypotheticals of what could happen (Pence could get injured for example). Clearly this point is not relevant as any of our players could (and unfortunately have) gotten injured—which would increase our need for a bad (i.e. those hypotheticals kind of cancel out unelss you have some reason to think the FA we sign is especially likely to get injured.).
It seems like the more relevant point, which many more here are saying, is that the marginal benefit of Pence’s (or similar free agents) bat now is not worth the marginal cost based on either Dom’s expected value (his ceiling times his probability of hitting that ceiling) or on the lack of talent from Pence commiserate with the increase in payroll as compared to Brown. These argument seem strong enough to me.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 28, 2011 1:08 PM EDT reply actions
As long as our scouting and development team remains strong and we keep selling out CBP, that window doesn’t have to close.
PS- Utley must stay no matter what. It’s the one unflappable sticking point against which logic, reason & balance sheets are utterly powerless.
by Chutley's Impressed by Mac's Speed on Jul 28, 2011 3:56 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
First, I want to state that I in no way support trading Domonic Brown for Hunter Pence, agree wholeheartedly that Pence is being drastically overrated and Brown underrated.
But, I do believe that there is such a thing as a window. Certainly, making bad, shortsighted moves will make that window artificially smaller, but just because there are prospects in the organization doesn’t mean you can expect them to reach the level the current group has. This is a perfect storm in Phillies baseball and quite possibly the best time in franchise history, and if you could make a trade to drastically improve the teams fortunes over the next 2 year window, I could support that kind of move.
I just don’t view Hunter Pence as that piece.
Derek Bodner
SBN Philly || LibertyBallers || DraftExpress
@derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
Hi Derek. Love your basketball writing.
I guess I hear what you’re saying, but I also think that any advantage you would get by adding talent for this current great run [avoiding the “w” word] are neutralized by the fact that the better you get in any particular time period, the more you have diminishing returns from adding more talent. This is already a playoff team, seeding has historically had very little value, the WS home field is already locked in anyway, and in a short series, advantages in talent don’t really increase your chances of winning all that much since luck plays such a huge role. I think in the final analysis, you’d go right back to where you started – make the moves that strengthen the organization the most overall, in a time-neutral manner.
Certainly. There’s nobody I could imagine available that would be worth Brown in a short term (1.5 year) “fix”.
In a theoretical world where Matt Holliday or Kemp were available, I think they could have an appreciable enough effect on this years postseason where I would pursue them, even if it meant losing Brown. But it would take someone of that caliber to where I thought the effect was potentially high enough to part ways. Not a marginal upgrade like Hunter Pence.
Derek Bodner
SBN Philly || LibertyBallers || DraftExpress
@derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on Jul 28, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess this is kind of like the argument of an “innings eater”. If the guy were good enough to be around a few years AND help you win now (even if he improves his chances), it wouldn’t be called a trade to win now, just to get better. If the guy isn’t projected to be a part of your team in a few years, he’s probably either cost prohibitive or a marginal player.
Derek Bodner
SBN Philly || LibertyBallers || DraftExpress
@derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on Jul 28, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
By the way, thanks for the kind words. This blog is a godsend for Phillies fans that I frequent much more than I post that I’m going to try to make an effort to be more active here. You guys do a great job. I think the comments count scares me off as I don’t have the time to keep up :)
Derek Bodner
SBN Philly || LibertyBallers || DraftExpress
@derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on Jul 28, 2011 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Who would be that piece, then? No one out on the trade market really looks like they could fit that role.
by philsandthrills on Jul 28, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think that piece is out there. I’m much rather take the cheap route of trying to improve Martinez/Gload/Valdez/Carpenter.
Derek Bodner
SBN Philly || LibertyBallers || DraftExpress
@derekbodner || derek.bodner@draftexpress.com
by Derek Bodner on Jul 28, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed. Giambi seemed like a perfect fit until he got hurt. Maybe Thome, though Minnesota probably wants him around for #600.
by philsandthrills on Jul 28, 2011 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
If you don’t shut the window – you’ll let all the cold air out
by SportingFanaticism on Aug 5, 2011 6:48 PM EDT reply actions
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