Gone Cliff Lee Gone: Blue Jays 7, Phillies 4
by dajafi on Jul 3, 2011 3:49 PM EDT
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This one looked pretty comfortable: a 4-0 Phillies lead through two innings, with Cliff Lee on the mound in his first July start following a June for the ages, facing a Blue Jays pitcher, Jo-Jo Reyes, best known for the historical scarcity of his victories. But Lee lost first his scoreless innings streak, then the comfortable lead, and finally the game as Toronto unleashed a late barrage of home runs to avoid a sweep at the hands of the visiting Phils.
The second-inning four-spot began with one out, when Shane Victorino began what would be a very adventurous day with a double and scored on Ben Francisco's single up the middle. Francisco advanced to second on a Domonic Brown single and came in on a Carlos Ruiz ground-rule double. After Wilson Valdez fouled out, Jimmy Rollins singled in both runs, and a million Philadelphians probably put this one in the win column after Lee struck out the side in the bottom of the inning.
But his scoreless streak ended an inning later, when Rajai Davis led off with a triple and came in on a John McDonald groundout. Meanwhile the Phillies stranded one runner in the third and two in the fifth. Davis basically made another run for himself in the fifth, singling with one out and stealing second and third with two before scoring on an Aaron Hill single. The Phils stranded another man in the sixth, and Toronto pulled within 4-3 in the bottom of the inning when Jose Bautista walked, advanced to third on an Adam Lind bloop to left that Ben Francisco misread off the bat, and came in on an Edwin Encarnacion flyout to shallow center that Victorino caught and got ready to fire home, where he'd have had a play, before getting his foot snared in the Rogers Centre turf and falling on his face. Lee escaped without further damage, registering his ninth strikeout to end the inning.
The Phillies squandered one last opportunity in the top of the eighth, when Victorino hit a ground rule double with one out. But he was picked off second by reliever Octavio Dotel, who promptly surrendered a double to pinch-hitter Raul Ibanez on which Shane could have crawled home. Then in the bottom of the inning, the roof fell in: Eric Thames clubbed Lee's first pich for a game-tying home run, and Bautista followed with a majestic solo shot. Lind singled, and after Juan Rivera flied out, Encarnacion ended Lee's day with a two-run bomb.
Lee's day was somewhat reminiscent of his early-season "struggles," in which he racked up big strikeout numbers but was prone to the big hit. Given the hot turf, it's reasonable to wonder if he'd have stayed in to face the heart of the Blue Jays lineup were the bullpen less depleted by injury; in any event, the abrupt reversal of fortune reminded us both that nothing in this game can be taken for granted, and that for all their strengths, the Phillies probably need better at-bats with men on and some healthy arms in the bullpen if they're to fulfill the potential of the best rotation they've ever had.
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that sucked!
so my brother texted me asking who was pitching for the Jays today and when I texted back Jo Jo Reyes, the word complete function on the phone changed it to “Lol Reyes”….which would have been fitting id the Phillies didn’t mentally check out midway through the game.
"A flute without holes, is not a flute. A donut without a hole, is a Danish."
Definitely. The first two innings were beautiful. The fourth and later, not so much. Hopefully the Orioles will hold on and this game will not cost them in the standings.
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 4:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
-0.4 WAR...
…was what both Wilson Valdez and Rajai Davis had “accumulated” into this game (via Fangraphs’ numbers). Valdez kept up his end of the bargain with an error and 4 outs in 3 plate appearances, but Davis had 6 total bases and stole 3 more. Harrumph.
Really, though, you’re right WC, this is the story of Lee’s year. Cumulatively, his DIPS and results line up, but there’s a serious disconnect between them on a game-to-game basis. It’s fascinating.
Looking at Lee’s season reminds me of the discussion of kERA that we had last season on this site. It is almost like Lee doesn’t have a mediocre mode- when he is good he is absolutely lights out amazing. When he is off, you get innings like today’s eighth, the third inning against the Nationals, and the bad innings against the Braves.
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 4:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
next Lee start
hopefully Good Cliff comes back in his next start against the Braves…I am kind of sick of hearing Braves fan’s say that their team has Lee’s number, however, I won’t have much of an argument if Bad Cliff shows up again.
"A flute without holes, is not a flute. A donut without a hole, is a Danish."
I really hope so too. Right now looks like the Braves will see Halladay, Lee, and Worley (if the rotation goes in order), making all three Phillies pitchers available for the All-Star game.
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 4:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
with the off day, why not Hamels in place of Worley? It is a huge statement series similar to when they set up the rotation last year to have Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels
"A flute without holes, is not a flute. A donut without a hole, is a Danish."
They could and indeed may do this (particularly since doing this would prevent at least one Phillies pitcher from appearing in the ASG).
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 4:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Horseshit. They’ve hit him well in a SSS of games. Once they do it over several years, then we can talk about “having a guy’s number”. We’ve had Hudson’s number a few times, too—doesn’t mean it’s a given in any series.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
I’m not saying it’s right…all I’m saying is that Id like a little more ammo in an argument other than sss.
"A flute without holes, is not a flute. A donut without a hole, is a Danish."
I would point to the standings.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
that is like a Cowboys fan asking me how many super bowls the Eagles won…I’d go there, but would prefer Lee shutting them up on his own
"A flute without holes, is not a flute. A donut without a hole, is a Danish."
True. But it’s nice as a reinforcement. Cowboys fans always have a point; however, the Eagles have won 3 championships. It’s not like they’ve never won anything. Not counting those trophies is sort of stupid if you ask me.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
I hate the no Super Bowl arguments against the Eagles. It’d be like if no one counted World Series before integration or something.
by Eaglesadvocate on Jul 3, 2011 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Although it is kind of hard to call the Cowboys Super Bowl wins recent- 15 years and counting without a title for them!
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 11:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Wait a minute. I thought they were America’s most popular team. Isn’t that what all the Cowboys fans believe?
by phillyinportland on Jul 5, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
If I remember right (and granted the sample size is still small), Lee had problems with Atlanta in the past as well (either a losing record or even a lack of wins with a high ERA). Then again he was excellent career against the Jays and today happened, so in a small sample size, who knows?
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 4:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Let’s send the G20 to somewhere else, howsabouts. I heard Vancouver is a nice, peaceful West Coast city.
by Minor Leaguer on Jul 3, 2011 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s the ‘G20 means free protest zone’ effect that does it, to be honest. Every G20 meeting gets protested, everywhere.
Lets send the G20 (and protesters) to NY and have our cities enjoy some quality baseball.
37. There is no 'overkill.' There is only 'open fire' and 'I need to reload.'
Thank the Makers that IL play is over. Happy we had a winning record, but I still hate it with the white hot intensity of 1000 suns.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
Braves lose!!!!
This implosion manages to not cost the Phillies in the standings!
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 4:57 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Lol… I wouldn’t go that far. This time it just prevents salt from being rubbed in the wound.
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 5:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I would go that far.
Seriously, the Braves losing is always a good thing.
He might be 35 years old, but boy can he still fly. #FreeScottPods
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 3, 2011 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Aces Crowdsourcing...
Other than the Phillies own four, who would you guys consider to be an Ace pitcher?
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 4:59 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Currently active and healthy?
Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Jared Weaver, Clayton Kershaw…David Price is working on it…Jon Lester. My brain is kinda refusing to work right now.
He might be 35 years old, but boy can he still fly. #FreeScottPods
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 3, 2011 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes… I am working on writing something, and I need some outside aces for a larger sample size comparison.
Offense, offense, where are you?
Justin Verlander and Josh Beckett. Matt Cain is making a case for himself, but is on the outside looking in, I think. It always, of course, depends on where you set the bar.
Personally, I like the traditional viewpoint that “the ace” is the best pitcher on the team, but that probably doesn’t do much for you.
The problems I had with taking that viewpoint (which I thought of using) were dual- if I boiled it down to being the best pitcher on each team, I can only put one Phillie in. I am also stuck putting in starting pitchers from poor staffs who are nowhere near as good as some of the 2’s and 3’s I am leaving out.
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 11:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Active… I am thinking of including Johnson (with small sample size caveat) because of how good he is when he can find his way on a field.
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 11:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If I look at career data, I intend to- right noe I am focusing on this season. I am kind of kicking something around- Johnson may or may not be in depending on his number of starts- he may get kicked out or asterisked due to small sample size issues.
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 11:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
610 After the Game
They were discussing Polanco’s performance since April ended – and how it’s not good. I feel that, ERA or OBP, they should show you a monthly stat. It really shouldn’t matter outside that window how he’s been hitting. I think 30 days is a good period to determine how a guy is hitting. Polanco is being carried by his numbers in March and April they said.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
I think both numbers should be shown, as knowing a pitcher or hitter’s numbers for the season (and to a certain extent career) put numbers in perspective, letting us know that Albert Pujols, for example was having a slow start and thus should be expected to heat up, while pointing out where someone else should regress with time.
Offense, offense, where are you?
I am mainly talking next to their name in most stats. All the stats should be available, but they always pick one stat to showcase. You can’t have both, and what good is both in these cases? All you should care about is how the hitter (or pitcher I guess) has done recently.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
Really.
Over the last 31 days, Cody Ross has an OPS of .842. Chooch, on the other hand, has an OPS of .624.
Who would you rather have at-bat with the game on the line? Be honest.
Is it a game against the Phillies?
Ruiz is pretty clutch, but he’s not been hitting lately. I don’t see a reason why you wouldn’t go with Cody Ross, unless he isn’t getting lots of at-bats.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
Maybe that was a bad example, but what someone’s done recently is not “all you should care about.” Not remotely.
But I do imagine it is a good indication of how likely they are to hit. Or do you think Polanco is not in a slump?
March/April: .398
May: .248
June: .213
Current Average: .280
Is THAT reflective? This is what sparked the question. It says Polanco is a .280 hitter. Stats for month show that his April is offsetting his average by a large amount. How is showing Polanco’s .213 instead a bad indicator of how he’s hitting? .280 is the bad indicator.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
Because your answers are reflective of a small sample size- cut small enough, any player can look either great or awful. The answer to how that player really is lies in the larger sample size- the bigger the sample, the more we know about the true performance of a player. Yes, it is important to keep in mind that Polanco is slumping and struggling. But it is also just as important to realize that he is usually a decent hitter, and thus season, (and to an extent weighted life time) averages, are just as important to know.
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 11:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Shouldn’t his slumping put him down in the order more often? Or, because he’s slumping, does he get higher in the order to get out of the slump?
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
While dropping Polanco in the order may help (and at this point I agree with it), I think the decision to leave him up makes some sense, both in giving Howard some protection, and in preventing the bottom of the order from becoming really abysmal. Further, Polanco has more experience and better numbers in the 2- hole, so I guess it is best he stay there.
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 4, 2011 12:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You ever listen to talk radio? Notably, money-watch, stock-market type shows? You know, the one’s that tell you to trade in your Zimbabwean dollars to buy orange juice futures? You ever hear the disclaimer they always attach in a reallyreallyrapidimpopssibletounderstandruntogethersuperfastfastADDvoice?
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Or more or less, anyway. The point is, 30 games is not nearly enough of a sample to override the rest of the season, the previous seasons of a player’s career. Yes, Polanco is in a slump, but if you give me a choice of Peanut or Doucheross, my choice is obvious, regardless of who’s hit better in the past month.
30 games is only enough of a sample to tell you who’s hit better in 30 games. It really doesn’t tell you much more.
But why would Polanco’s early-season performance affect his current performance? I know Sunday’s game is in the past, but I’d assume it is “current performance” enough to count as that. I mean, if you want a quick look at how a hitter is doing, which stat do you want?
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
His early season performance wont “affect” his current performance, but nor will last week’s. What is a better measure of his actual skill level is his year-to-date, or better yet, last year as well.
If you want a quick look at how a hitter is doing in June, look at their OPS in June. If you want a prediction of how well they will do in July, look at their last couple seasons.
Is time of the year really linked that closely with how hitters perform? I know Howard always has big Septembers but I figured it was for reasons other than it being September.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
I don’t know that it carries over the large sample size of all players, but there are definitely players who have shown throughout their career to have slower or hotter periods- for example, many in Atlanta did not worry when Dan Uggla started off slow because that is typical for him- the concern started when he stayed bad for as long as he has.
Offense, offense, where are you?
OK… Different example, but since you brought up ERA for a month:
Cliff Lee’s April ERA: 4.18
Kevin Correa’s April ERA: 2.90
One game for all the marbles- which one of them are you going to start?
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 11:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I didn’t bring up ERA. Phrozen did. I was talking strictly ERA.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
And more to the point, pitchers only pitch one every five games. And they can have bad games. And the way ERA works is if you have one bad game, it balloons unfairly. It’s why I hardly think ERA even matters.
Hitters hit every game (excluding bench guys), and can get up to five hits on a daily basis. So they would have more chances to show their ability, and more chances to show you if they can get on base or not.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
Both are actually prone to the same small sample size issues- while ERA is more volatile due to its ability to be jacked sky high after one bad performance, batting average also takes hundreds of plate appearances to level off. While there are uses to knowing the hot hand (for example in knowing whether or not to pitch to a given hitter or intentionally walk him), the big decisions should be made using larger sample sizes that give a better understanding of the type of player involved.
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 11:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Huh? You just said both that you did not bring up ERA (which you did in your original post), and that you were strictly talking about ERA. Which one is it?
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 11:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I meant average. I don’t know why I said ERA. I can’t think of the acronym right now either.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
BA- batting average?
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 4, 2011 12:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
AVG… is what it is I guess. I’m pretty sure everyone thinks it should be replaced with OBP so I am not sure why people stick to using it.
It's in his wheelhouse!!
Carlos Ruiz, My Nickname is Chooch.
You guys are alright
The Phillies fans in the crowd were polite and were good sports, some even joined in to heckle Marquez for his crappy zone on Saturday. Hope to see yall come back soon (perhaps one day in October again).
by Minor Leaguer on Jul 3, 2011 10:23 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
No- the whole thing unravelled really fast. Lee came out for the eighth, pitch count at like 89, so they thought he would be fine. Then he gave up the first two homeruns within the space of 6 pitches, turning the win to a loss. This was followed by the Lind single (on the second pitch of the at bat) at which point they had Stutes warming up (not sure exactly when they called the pen, just know that the announcers brought it up when Dubee was talking to Lee. Without having someone warming in the 8th (and given the pitch count it was understandable), it would be near impossible for them to have gotten Stutes up faster than they did.
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 11:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Heading into the 8th.
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 11:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You wouldn’t be as annoying if you were capable of being concise.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, and now NotGraphs. Fun!
Charlie is a firm believer in the ever elusive negata-run (i.e.) when a pitcher pitches a good enough inning after giving up a run that the run is removed.
It is only believed to have happened once, with Old Hoss Radbourn on the mound, but even the veracity of that claim has been challenged by many respected historians of the game.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, and now NotGraphs. Fun!
Well I will never annouce that I want a Phillies win for my birthday. Nor will I ever ask for a CG shutput by a pitcher. I feel like I jinxed Lee.
Somebody please test Bautista foir ROIDS.
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
Somebody please test Bautista foir ROIDS.
At the risk of taking this too seriously: thanks for parroting the incredibly tired logic that threatens to suck all the fun and mystery out of baseball.
This, and because he is the straw that stirs the Team WL drink, his urine could burn a hole in my sidewalk for all I care. Just a reminder that he was the 32nd pick in the draft.
by Wet Luzinski on Jul 4, 2011 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
And to think you left Kevin Youkilis on the board to take Jose. You sly dog, you.
by phillyinportland on Jul 5, 2011 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Me either.
I really don’t think Bautista is juicing, though- he does not fit the profile- he is a powerful hitter, but his body does not have that muscled up look to it.
Offense, offense, where are you?
by dannijd on Jul 3, 2011 11:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
So, I get in my car to drive to Seattle and the Phillies are leading 4-3 with Victorino on second base in the 8th inning. When I check the score Saturday night in Seattle I see 7-4 Toronto and can’t believe Lee lost the game. Thanks for an excellent game summary. You do have to wonder why Lee was left in so long after the chance for a record shutout streak was over. My own thought is that the last thing Manuel wanted to do was walk out there and take Cliff out of the game, so once he let him start the 8th inning he kept thinking that Lee would get the next guy or two guys out and Lee could walk off the mound with his complete game, if nothing else.
by phillyinportland on Jul 5, 2011 5:12 PM EDT reply actions
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