Everyone Chill the &*$# Out About the Hunter Pence Trade
by WholeCamels on Jul 30, 2011 8:14 AM EDT
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The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
So it happened last night; the Phillies traded prospects Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Singleton for the Astros Hunter Pence. This is not a good trade by any stretch, but it's far from a disaster.
There's a fair amount of prospect fetishization that goes on in online fan communities, and I'm certainly guilty of it. Serious fans look down the road, and look past the big league team's box score, to see what the future holds. We had gotten fairly attached to a couple of guys who had had their praises sung by experts and scouts, watched their performances on national television, and imagined what was going to be.
But the fact remains that the prospect attrition rate is terrible. Brutal. Cosart and Singleton are far more likely to turn into washouts or fringe big leaguers than they are to post a single All-Star Game appearance between them. It also didn't help that both players had affable online personas via Twitter and elsewhere, and in some capacity, many of us got to "know" them personally.
Were they worth the price of Pence? I don't really think so, but again, it's not like Hunter Pence is a bad player. He's overrated for precisely the same reasons lots of us are ambivalent about him ("hustle," "plays the game right," etc.). But he can still hit, even if he's not a masher, and he takes the team out of the offseason market for a corner outfielder to replace Raul Ibanez. This wasn't a complete disaster, the way it would have been if Domonic Brown were part of the deal.
Further, I think the trade provides a nice amount of cover for Domonic Brown, who is under an immense amount of pressure right now. While most of you reading this understand that Brown is a work in progress, and that he's showing many promising signs of development as a player, the fact remains that had this Pence deal not been consummated, Brown would have been, in the public eye, the guy who wasn't traded for Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and that he held up the deal for Shiny Toy Hunter Pence. The pressure and scrutiny would have been unbearable.
There's still time with Brown. A demotion to Triple-A will allow him to polish his game and probably learn left field, where he may be better suited in the long run anyway. The pressure will hopefully be reduced, and fans and management will, ideally, again view Brown for what he is -- a 23 year old work-in-progress who deserves a chance to develop and mature. I sincerely believe that management knows how important Brown's development into a productive, cheap big leaguer is to this team as players like Lee and Howard start to get very, very expensive.
In conclusion: It's fine to be disappointed in losing Cosart and Singleton. I'm pretty disappointed. But this isn't the Hindenburg Disaster.
That was Ryan Howard's contract extension. ::ducks::
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I think we overpaid, but we kept Brown and May, and got a guy who can start in the OF and bat 5th for the next 2 years.
I’m starting to warm up to this trade a little, even if Pence is only slightly better than an avg OF. Your point about prospects washing out certainly puts things in perspective.
by Turkish Gold on Jul 30, 2011 8:35 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
But we already had a guy who can start in the OF and bat 5th for this year and next. He plays centerfield and he’s got better numbers than Pence. Moving Vic outta the 5 hole is a downgrade, especially against left-handed pitching. It’s a lateral move at best.
by 88Lindros88 on Jul 30, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, after having had time to sleep on this, I’ve made it to the acceptance stage of grieving. It could have been far worse, though there are definite bright spots. Chief among them that Dom is still with us. As is Biddle, and May, and Valle, et cetera.
I want Pence to do really well here. I welcome him and wish him the best.
I just hope Ruben redoubles his efforts to replenish the farm system and not use it just for bargaining chips.
by Airedale260 on Jul 30, 2011 8:49 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I agree
He’s just like us guys!
https://twitter.com/hunterpence9/status/97303839744602112
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
This really isn't a bad trade
Sure we overpaid a bit, but we didn’t lose Brown, and as you say WC this takes a ton of pressure off of him. I’m sure he’ll be disappointed to be returning to AAA but it will give him the opportunity to learn left field, and he’s a lock to be recalled in September at the very least. Next year’s outfield will probably be Brown/Victorino/Pence, which is an improvement over our current group with Ibanez, even if Francisco or Mayberry are platooning sometimes. This is really okay, and certainly much better than it could have been. It hardly seems worth it for Houston to send the $1MM they did to keep the Phillies under the luxury tax limit, it seems like only a matter of time before we cross it, but it’s a nice bonus for now.
The best thing to do for the team would be to bench Ibanez and replace him in the lineup with Pence. Probably too logical for Manuel.
by Lawlzors on Jul 30, 2011 9:20 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I’d love to see this, but Manuel probably doesn’t want someone making $11.5 mil this year sitting on the bench.
by ChasingtonvonUtleyIII on Jul 30, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
You’re right, but it’s too bad they can’t see past sunk costs and just do what’s best going forward.
by Lawlzors on Jul 30, 2011 10:54 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
not sure how this relates to Ibanez, but the Phils have certainly absorbed sunk costs before (see Eaton, Adam)
or more recent history see Baez/Romero. I think they ate over $2million combined there just to see their backside.
True, true. But perhaps Eaton and Baez were so egregiously below replacement level, their hands were forced in those cases.
It was a given that JC was maddeningly frustrating this season, but Manuel misued him immensely and the Phils didn’t seem to recognize he still had value as a LOOGY.
Which makes me wonder if they don’t even recognize that they’re better off playing Brown, and that they actually think it is in their best interests to play Ibanez, salary notwithstanding.
Totally agree. Give the kid playing time in left. We have a comfortable lead on the nl anyway. If brown is scuffling come September then you can still go back to ibanez and give him a few weeks to get his timing back before the playoffs
by aPHILLYated on Jul 30, 2011 1:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Thanks for the reality check.
You summarized my position on this, among many others’, I’m sure. Notwithstanding Brown’s potential and recent competence, the Phillies needed a solid middle of the order bat NOW, and they got him. I could (and quite possibly will) argue that they should have gone hard after Carlos Quentin; that they got gamed into a bidding war for themselves for Pence…the fact remains that Amaro kept the guy they HAD to keep and got A guy they really needed, at a price that is not off-the-charts crazy.
Still might debate that they “needed” anything, but this could’ve been much worse.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 30, 2011 10:13 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I’m starting to calm down about this trade too, but still believe that the Phillies overpaid for him. I should probably know this, but where does the high A team for Houston play?!
Triple A team is
Oklahoma City Redhawks
by chillyphilly on Jul 30, 2011 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
This seems like a very fair trade
Sure, it would’ve been nice if the Phils had ripped off the Stros, but seems like both sides gave up a lot and also got a lot.
This makes the team better* between now and 2013, which is the time through which we can be fully confident they’ll compete for titles. If Brown had been in, that wouldn’t have been the case. I do think Pence is overrated, but it’s not like he sucks.
*What they spend on him could represent a really high opportunity cost, but that’s not something we can really know, so…
by dajafi on Jul 30, 2011 9:36 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Thanks for this post
The amount of anguish and bellyaching was reaching the point of ridiculous. As I mentioned before, the pendulum swung too far into the anti-trade direction and the ‘groupthink’ everyone was bashing crept in with this particular group of Phils fans.
I don’t think it’s groupthink to not want the Phillies to make a trade for a perceived need that wasn’t real. It was groupthink that the Phils needed this RHB in the first place. Upgrading the bench would have been sufficient IMO.
Whatever, he’s here now so welcome Captain Underpants. I’ve never been a huge fan—I think he’s overrated—but we need him to perform well.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
Why does noone mention the fact that we now have our Left Field need filled for the next 2 years? There WAS a need for that, wasn’t there? And the Impact this year is REAL too, no?
We could have addressed that in the offseason when you’re somewhat less likely to overpay. I don’t have an issue with overpaying if we could have netted someone better than Pence. I just don’t like HIM. Why can’t I not like the trade based on that?
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
by doubleh on Jul 30, 2011 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
2011 OF UFAs
who would be better this offseason (without overpaying)? not sure exactly who would be available, but a search of “top 2011 mlb ufa” was quite a list. seriously who would have been better at ~10mil/yr?
by revolveevolv on Jul 30, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, right field need. Dom Brown will be the one who slots into left to replace Ibanez.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
I would like to direct this to the distinguished members of the panel: You lousy cork-soakers. You have violated my farging rights. Dis somanumbatching country was founded so that the liberties of common patriotic citizens like me could not be taken away by a bunch of fargin iceholes… like yourselves.
by j reed on Jul 30, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Each side fell prey to hysteria. Fucking Twitter, that certainly didn’t help matters. Everybody likes to burn the witch. Or are just latent pyros. I saw this shit all the time in the punk scene which prides itself on non conformity. Subcultures are just as suspectible to the very prejudices and dismissals of those they differentiate themselves from. Add some fear and you have yourself powerful drug – it takes very little to marginalize the perceived enemy. Escaping the event horizon of high school is a difficult task.
I think there’s certainly a core truth in what you’re saying, but I also think you’re falling into the DC Political Media Fallacy of reflexively assessing equal blame to both sides of any controversy. The DC Political Media finds it impossible to ever assign responsibility to any one party for a problem, it’s only capable of blaming “politicians in Washington” in some undifferentiated manner. But that isn’t right – whether equal blame should go around to both sides is a factual question that should be based on factual evidence, not just an assumption that “both sides are equally at fault.”
In this case, I think both sides were equally at fault insofar as they both believed bullsh*t rumors put out there by Jon Heyman. But both sides were not equally at fault in coming to the wrong conclusion about the trade that actually happened. The pro-trade camp’s views were totally nonsensical. I haven’t read the comments of the main post on the trade from last night (there are just too many to wade through), but I did read the recap thread and I don’t think any of the critics of the trade there said anything that was unreasonable in its criticism.
Yeah. Hymen was an ass. For me it went like this throughout the week
1. Hymen is an ass. Brown for Beltran? Cmon
2. Hymen won’t let this go
3. Now brown for pence? He’s grasping
4. There’s no way we trade brown
5. We wouldn’t trade brown would we? Rube isn’t that stupid
6. Wait, is rube that stupid?
7. Holy shit. They’re really talking brown.
8. It’s smoke right? It’s gotta be smoke.
9. Imma call 97.5 cause rube will hear me and come to his senses
10. It’s not smoke.
11. It’s smoke.
12. How did I fall for that?
13. Thank god it was smoke.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
I unfollowed Jon Heyman. Dude was just clogging up my feed with nonsense.
Now there’s more room for Jiwan James to tweet about having to poop.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 30, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh I thought the other side was wrong, well not wrong, but just had the much weaker argument. What is wrong is marginalizing them because of it. That’s the issue.
the tone of the threads went from snarky fun to dehumanizing a group of people as the hysteria got higher.
I’m actually kinda glad I was eating pizza (stupid when you have a stomach bug, but pizza is just so good) and watching Project Runway instead of panicking here and on Twitter.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 30, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
project runaway is good. I don’t watch it often but man, that is some hard ass shit they have to do.
It’s an awesome show. Love Tim Gunn.
But I’d imagine most guys would watch it for Heidi Klum.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 30, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Well my mom worked in the fashion industry, started right out of high school making peanuts as window dresser for Strawbridges and Clothier and worked he way up thru the ranks. That’s where my obsession with uniform aesthetics comes from. I grew up with a healthy respect for the textile arts and trades. Totally admire how clothes designers see shape. To me it’s soft sculpture.
The drama really only started when Dom Brown’s name was dropped. TGP’rs wont let anyone mess with Dom
“Prospect fetishization”? You come up with that yourself? If so, dolphin clap for you. Anways, guilty as charged. I had manlove for Cosart, but I’ll transfer it to Biddle.
by Boundforbeach on Jul 30, 2011 9:55 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I’ve calmed down too, based on the ramifications of the deal for the next couple of years. I took a look at the OF available this offseason and they are almost all mid-30s type players out of their prime years. I’m sure we might have been able to get something a little better on the trade market, but this works for the future a lot more than it works for now.
Baseball: the only sport whose commissioner wants you to think it is still 1960.
by phillies fan in bowie on Jul 30, 2011 10:03 AM EDT reply actions
I hate that I'm saying this because when the deal was announced it was not what I first wanted to happen
But looking back and thinking more rationally, Brown going back to AAA and learning left field for a month is probably the best move for all involved. Brown gets out of scrutiny, Brown learns his position with the Phillies as long as Hunter Pence is here, Brown gets to play everyday, and when Brown comes back, they can get the positive hype machine back out for him.
I’d rather see Brown in the line-up now than Ibanez, but if we are looking at what is best for Brown and the future, it is sending him back to Lehigh until September 1, because knowing Charlie, Brown would have ridden the bench and the regular outfield would have been Ibanez-Victorino-Pence. We saw that last year. I have no desire to ever see that again.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Samsies.
Hey, WTF happened with El Pescadito?
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
The Philadelphia Union are selling him internationally, likely to a team in Mexico (multiple clubs have been reported, none confirmed yet). Whether he actually believes it or not, I have no idea, but Nowak has taken it upon himself to blame the fans for this. Not a bright move on his part.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Why is it the fans’ fault?
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
It is as bizarre as it sounds.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Yeah, that seems like BS to me. Since when do you get rid of a player because the fans give him a hard time? Shit, if that were the case, the Phillies would consist solely of Halladay, Lee and Utley.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
and he'll no longer have to where his disguise
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
by DirtyWaters on Jul 30, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
What do they know?
Two scouts say 3rd player in Pence trade, RHP Josh Zeid, ready for bigs now in ‘pen. "I’d kill to get Zeid," one says. #tradedeadline #MLB
Samesis
Yes, it will be awkward if RAJ trades more pieces for Adams, and Zeid shows up in the ’Stros bullpen in September.
Hunter Pence will not guarantee a WS, but, then, neither does Carlos Beltran.
No
What it means is that Zeid was close to making the Show. Adams is backup for Bastardo et al. Zeid thus might have done this. OR, at the very least, this makes the Astros risk on Cosart and Singleton much much less.
Hunter Pence will not guarantee a WS, but, then, neither does Carlos Beltran.
I’m not following you. Zeid is near-ML-ready, sure. But unless he outperforms Adams (assuming the Phils acquire him) I don’t see the relevance. He wasn’t getting called up by the Phillies this year to slot into the back end of the pen, so comparing him to Adams seems to be apples to oranges.
Pence reportedly will wear #3 in Philadelphia. Not that this is crucial information for anyone, I just like that he’s going to change his number from #9, which was Brown’s number. I feel like, for Philly fans, seeing Pence come in and play well and wear Brown’s number would just contribute even more to any irrational Brown hate.
babe?
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
by DirtyWaters on Jul 30, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
How strange...
All these comments by the baseball literati and nobody comments on the mispelled “&*$#” in the title. You guys took a hit to your credibility.
by ralpharodriguez on Jul 30, 2011 10:52 AM EDT reply actions
Thanks for the reality check WC. I, for one, am waiting to see Pence play a few games before I finally make up my mind about him.
I still think this trade wasn’t absolutely necessary right now. One of these seasons, RA’s yearly big splash is going to end up hurting us, i fear…
Throw style points out the window.
Is very bad to steal Jobu's rum. Is very bad.
CHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOCH!!!!1!111!!
Well, I still think it was a bad trade. That’s just my risk/reward calculation. I actually don’t care for Cosart or Singleton all that much (never written about them much, etc.). I just don’t think Pence, including all the silver linings re: Brown, is worth what we gave up. I also think the thought process employed by the organization bodes poorly for the future. It’s true, however, that this trade standing alone, is not a team-killer. In other words, I stand by what I wrote last night. There are, of course, levels of criticism that are unwarranted, just as there are for any bad decision.
I also agree, for the most part, with Rob Neyer.
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/7/30/2304866/hunter-pence-trade-phillies-analysis-news
Ah, Neyer, the antidote to Keith Law. The part I disagree with is when he states that Singleton never would have made the roster. He’s only 19. By the time Howard’s contract is up, he’d only be 24. /sigh
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
Nah.
As much as we might have dreamed. This was singletons destiny. He never would have played for us. But we still sold low on him.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
My thoughts exactly. Never for a moment did I ever think that Singleton would make his MLB debut in a Phillies uniform. My thought/hope was they would have waited a year or two and sold higher on him. That’s my biggest qualm regarding the trade itself.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Um, he is 19. Howard debuted when he was 24, 25 in his 2005 rookie season. I believe Singleton will be 25 when Howard’s contract is up. (Let alone the LF experiment, etc.).
But your point on “selling low” is well taken.
HOWEVER, I am now more convinced that the Phils #1 draft choice might be taking the place of Singleton in the minors in any case.
Hunter Pence will not guarantee a WS, but, then, neither does Carlos Beltran.
No offense Bud
But they started selling singleton in spring training. That’s why theybtried him in LF. Tere was no way he was making it past the offseason.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
I think you are somewhat mis-interpreting what I said. My point was not what I wanted to happen from the beginning, my point was based in my (as it turned out correct) assumption and belief the Phillies were going to trade Singleton before he ever got in the majors. My hope was that based on this assumption, the Phillies would wait a year or two and sell higher than they did.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
I was really hoping to see the LF experiment revisited. There was a chance he could have made the team that way.
If he showed he could play LF they would have still trade him. But they’d have gotten a mother load. That’s all. Doesn’t the fact that we sold low on him kinda say enough about how much they thought he fit in down the line?
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
I’d argue that’s not really selling low, then.
by The Howling Fantods on Jul 30, 2011 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Astros fan here
When I woke up this morning the first thing that popped in my mind is, “did the Astros really trade Pence last night or was this all just a dream?”
Anyway, just so you know, I think the mood from Astros fans is tempered optimism at best to “I’m going to go cancel my season tickets now” at worst. Houston LOVES Hunter Pence, so this was really a tough loss. But Philly will LOVE Hunter Pence even more. He’s the sort of all outplayer and you’re going to enjoy watch patrolling RF for many years to come.
For Astros fans, it’s going to be years down the line before we know whether any of the prospects you gave up (even if a couple were top 50 guys) can even make it to the big leagues, let alone thrive there.
So, right now, I agree with the others who say win-win. You needed an impact bat to help your playoff chances and we needed the pieces to help rebuild.
I’m glad he’s a lovable guy, but that shouldn’t really be an important factor in either side’s decision matrix.
The Astros made the right trade. Pence was basically useless to them for the goal of winning a title. I don’t think the Phillies made the right decision. The Phillies didn’t “need” an impact bat. He’ll help a little but only a little.
but he instantly makes everyone around him better…didn’t you hear?
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
by DirtyWaters on Jul 30, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Well...
1) Your manager has been demanding all season a right handed bat to compliment all your lefty bats in the lineup and the GM obviously listened to what he had to say.
2) Dom Brown isn’t quite ready yet—or at least he’s not the right guy, right now for a team in “win now” mode.
If the ultimate goal is to win another championship, Pence will help you do that.
Just because our manager said it doesn’t mean it’s right. Our manager is sometimes a giant dope. What isn’t Brown ready for? He isn’t ready to perform at the highest level his talent allows. But he’s apparently ready to play on the team with the best record in major league baseball. Pence may be somewhat better for this team, but that doesn’t mean Pence was worth bringing here whatever the cost. If the benefit is modest and the cost is more than modest, then the cost exceeded the benefit and it was a bad trade.
If the ultimate goal is to win another championship, Pence will help you do that.
See, this is what I disagree with. The ultimate goal is to win as many championships as possible. As a franchise, the Phillies have 2. Before the Pence trade, we were on pace to win #3 this year anyway. Even if we do win this year, we are now built to NOT win in the future. As things stand, we need to have most of our prospects hit their full potential then before. Now you may say “well the Phillies still have an excellent farm system.” While that is certainly true, RAJ has made it clear, with this trade, that he is willing to overvalue veteran players, and undervalue the worth of his prospects. While we may not be entirely fucked at the moment, the Phillies brass aren’t showing that particularly care about the future of the franchise, and are willing to ride the team high for the next few years, and leave the mess to the next GM and his fellowship.
Samesis
I had a dream last night...
…they traded Chooch for Pence. When I woke up, I felt a lot better about the real trade. Thanks, subconscious!
You know what’s starting to worry me a little? The Phillies now have at least $125 million tied up already in their 2013 payroll (assuming extensions for Rollins and Hamels) and Victorino’s going to be a free agent. Before this season I had always assumed that Shane’s current contract was his last one with the Phillies, but he’s been so great this year that now I’m not so sure. But now they might not be able to keep both him and Pence, making it a moot point, which isn’t good. Shane will be 32 on Opening Day 2013.
Watch out, Yankees.
BUYING CHAMPIONSHIPS FTW!
No but seriously, a lot can happen between now and 2013. Gillies could get healthy and come out of no where, for all we know. Thank goodness there’s no salary cap in baseball.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 30, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Don’t worry, be happy maaaaan.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 30, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Gelb has a piece on 2012 salary implications today. Useful data.
Hunter Pence will not guarantee a WS, but, then, neither does Carlos Beltran.
Just logged on to my fantasy team. Saw “Hunter Pence, PHI-OF.” It was weird.
People in my league have been trying to trade for Pence all year and I’ve refused to give him up. He’s been one of the most productive fantasy players I have. So, I’m happy to have him on my real-life team. I also have followed him on Twitter for as long as I’ve been on Twitter.
And that’s all I have to say about that.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
Holy crap, that is really really sad.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 30, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
What this?
This bout to be 1 long xss walk from winn-dixie. Mainly because I gotta #DropADuece.lol just left #Ihop…#ShxttyTweet. Lmao
39 minutes ago
Jiwan james
But yeah, that’s sad
Hunter Pence
Wouldn’t fetishize prospects!
by JamesFromPhilly on Jul 30, 2011 11:44 AM EDT reply actions
I don’t want to think about Hunter Pence’s fetishes, thank you very much.
#FriskyPeriod
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 30, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
A big part of this is learning to accept the balance between developing talent to play for you and developing talent to get players to play for you. The hard truth is when you’re a bi market team the latter becomes the norm.
I have no problem trading Cosart or Singleton. I do have a problem with what we got in return. Not from the player perspective as much from the false cost control.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
This. Gelb’s 2012 salary estimate is cold comfort.
Hunter Pence will not guarantee a WS, but, then, neither does Carlos Beltran.
I’m not worried about next year, or really even, 2013. It’s 14 and 15’ with 70 and 50mm to 36 and 37 yo halladays, lees and Howards that worry me. That the year we pay for winning. Howard and lee are both untradable at tha point, dollar wise.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
But I thought (and I think others did too) that losing Ibanez, Lidge, Baez, (and yikes, maybe Madson) would bring more relief than it did. No chance, even in 2012.
Hunter Pence will not guarantee a WS, but, then, neither does Carlos Beltran.
I mean if we can re-sign Jimmy reasonably and Cole I’m happy with our 2012 and 2013 team… we’ll probably be losing Shane though.
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 30, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Hunter Pence Interview on 97.5 @ 12:15pm
Our savior speaks! It was recorded earlier
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
that Brace guy is a douche…he’s a Mets fan and yet he says things like this…“Now you’re going to be hitting behind Ryan Howard, that’s why we got you.” and “Will you be here in time for us to put you in the line-up tonight?”…smfh at yet another reason why I don’t like to listen to talk radio
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
by DirtyWaters on Jul 30, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for putting things in perspective, WC. For the most part I agree with you.
However, I have a hard time accepting the “this will be good for Brown” line (not saying it’s wrong, though) because all of the pressure that was suddenly placed on Brown in the last few weeks emerged in the context of people saying we NEEDED to make a trade.
First and foremost, as we had been trying to argue, Brown’s fielding left a bit to be desired, but he was doing a perfectly adequate job and there was no real need to replace him. There was no real need to add anyone, so the overpay for Pence doesn’t make much sense and is troubling in what it reveals about RAJ.
So if people only suddenly started talking about how he was a bust and such and such and needed to be traded for Pence in response to the news that Ruben was on the market, then we run into a kind of tautology: Brown is underperforming because he’s under pressure because of people have been mentioning his name in trade talks because people believe he’s a bust and can’t handle the pressure.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, and now NotGraphs. Fun!
by FuquaManuel on Jul 30, 2011 12:10 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I would love to see Thome return. Of course, that’s true for most one-time Phillies…
by Airedale260 on Jul 30, 2011 2:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I’ve been a supporter of Hunter Pence throughout this ordeal. I just never supported the package we gave up for him. In any event, I hear everyone saying, “Pence is just above-average,” but Ibanez is definitely below-average, so starting next year we’re looking at more than just a marginal improvement.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
I’m in that same camp…I’m excited to have him on the Phils, but don’t have any illusions that he is Roberto Clemente
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
by DirtyWaters on Jul 30, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
lol
No more than 5 minutes ago a friend of mine compared him to Clemente
by FanSince1993 on Jul 30, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
After sleeping on the deal, I feel much better. I still don’t like the deal, but it wasn’t disastrous. Also, phuture phillies wrote up a great piece on the deal, and i suggest you read it.
http://phuturephillies.com/2011/07/29/the-phillies-acquire-hunter-pence/
Here is another great piece by phuture phillies, this one on being a big-market team. It is a great read, and he makes some valid points.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
The point he made about fans who value prospects worrying about the window closing was completely ass-backwards though.
The only people who have been vocal about the window closing are those who were arguing to empty the farm.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, and now NotGraphs. Fun!
The number of people who overvalue Phillies prospects is minuscule. Probably less than 1% of the total fan base.
But that’s a meta-point that doesn’t really matter. The question that matters is about underlying logic. (1) Is it true that trading prospects is an appropriate response to concerns about a window closing? No – that would only make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you have prospects to trade whom others want, then by definition it isn’t inevitable that the window is closing, and that inevitability is the necessary factual premise of trading the prospects. (2) Is it true that holding onto prospects is an appropriate response to concerns about a window closing? Yes – that will decrease the probability that the window will close.
Of course, this doesn’t make any individual trade right or wrong. That depends on the specifics of that individual trade. But it’s always wrong to say that the fear of a window closing is irrationally preventing people from wanting to make the trade. That fear is appropriate under those circumstances. The only way to rebut that intelligent fear is to prove as a factual matter that the trade is worth it, value for value.
This isn’t hard to understand, or at least it shouldn’t be. But it’s hard to make a man understand a point if his agenda requires him not to understand it.
But it’s hard to make a man understand a point if his agenda requires him not to understand it.
An apt reworking of Upton Sinclair’s wonderful apothegm.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, and now NotGraphs. Fun!
My dad just said no team can be built to win now and the future, and the Phillies should choose one.
I hate my life
Samesis
Hey, Dad, the NYY and Boston Red Sox say “Hello!”
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
Then he said that the Eagles and Yankees do it with free agents and trades, not draft picks. On a quick glance, 80% of the current eagles were drafted by the Eagles. and 72% of the current Yankees wen’t through AA and AAA in their system.
Samesis
Oh, Dads and their perception bias. Mine’s the same way FWIW.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
How long is Pence's leash with the fans?
Will the same people that clamored for his arrival after vilifying Dom Brown turn on him if he struggles? or is he instantly in Utley territory where he can do no wrong?
we get Pence anyway for some prospect, and, as I just found out, Houston is kicking in cash for pence this year to keep the Phillies under the luxury cap. Amarao is a genius.
RAGEEEEEEEEEEE
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
That’s what drives me crazy, we got him for “some prospects” crap
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
by Ed Van Chimp on Jul 30, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
You don’t have to have a good farm system when you have a great team
Dirty Waters, how do you handle your dad in times like this?
Samesis
I agree completely with your post WC
But then, most of it I already posted in the earlier threads.
/shameless, trollish self-promotion’d
Won’t be in the threads during the games the next few days as I have work projects to do, that I was not doing yesterday while nearing suffocation with reporters (hopefully not RAJ) dangling Dom.
Hunter Pence will not guarantee a WS, but, then, neither does Carlos Beltran.
For what it’s worth, I hope Pence has some immediate success. He’s going to get a hero’s welcome in his first at-bat, so he might as well make a hero’s entrance. If he blasts one, I’ll applaud.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
I don’t like all of the talk in the sports pages about how the “Phillies reacted to the giants getting beltran” in all of this Pence talk. I don’t think the Phils were ever serious about renting Beltran.
Also hate to see so many of you dump on Charlie. Specifically: do you honestly believe that he doesn’t have significant input as to how to best handle Brown? Do you really believe, if not for the Phil’s front office, Charlie would work poor Dom to death? and In General: I think Charlie is an effing baseball genius and he deserves more respect from a bunch of armchair GMs.
Finally, i’m SUPER excited about Pence and believe he’s worth what we paid. Prospects are pie in the sky. his numbers are “average” but they’re consistent, and I personally believe they’ll improve with him being in a stronger lineup and in our little bandbox of a park ;o)
GO PHILLIES!!!!
And bandbox, since it’s not true at all.
Formerly... "You don't have to be sweet, to be good"
by Ed Van Chimp on Jul 30, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
unless IN is in front of it.
It's only gonna get funner
by VanceinmyPants on Jul 30, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
After some thought and sleep, I’ve come to accept this trade more. I’m still not happy about giving up Singleton and Cosart (esp. Singleton), who were 2 of my favorite prospects along with Biddle, De Fratus, and Santana. I think Singleton will be a solid player in the distant future.
But I’m willing to get behind Pence and I hope the guy has a dynamite 2nd half.
"There is no dark side in the moon, really. Matter of fact it's all dark."
Batting order
When Polanco’s back, what’s the order look like?
Maybe:
JRoll
Polanco
Utley
Howard
Pence
Victorino
Raul
Chooch
or does Victorino bat 2nd, Raul 6th, & Polanco7th?
We’ll find out in a couple of hours. Word on the street is, Polly has been activated off the DL.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 30, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I would personally like:
Jimmy
Vic
Chase
Ryno
Pence
Raul
Polly
Chooch
Lee
For tonight. Course, I really would’ve preferred Dom instead of Raul, and had Dom hit second, but that’s neither here nor there.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 30, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Rollins
Polanco
Utley
Howard
Victorino!?!?!?
Pence
Ibanez
Ruiz
P
Victorino has been doing fine in the # 5 spot, and you can’t fix whats not broken
Times change, like the climate I change. Check the forecast. I reign.
by secondroundpick on Jul 30, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
But I like Vic’s speed right behind Jimmy’s speed. I’m kind of a sucker for double steals.
Also, I’m 95% sure I read somewhere that Pence is going to be our new 5 hole dude.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 30, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
You don't know Charlie Manuel
Howard and Ibanez are a proven combo.
Rollins
Utley
Polanco
Howard
Ibanez
Pence
Victorino
Ruiz
by JamesFromPhilly on Jul 30, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
This is the actual lineup, per Matt Gelb.
/gloats
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 30, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
While it'll never happen
It tends to put Ruiz high due to his OBP, but I personally wouldn’t do that, so from what it spits out, the first non-Ruiz lead-off is:
1. Chase Utley
2. Shane Victorino
3. Placido Polonco
4. Ryan Howard
5. Hunter Pence
6. Raul Ibanez
7. Jimmy Rollins
8. Cliff Lee (This thing loves pitchers in the 8-spot.. LaRussa does this too.)
9. Carlos Ruiz
by JamesFromPhilly on Jul 30, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
That must be the same one the MLB 2K-whatever games use…because that is just weird.
OT but I hate the AI in those games. It loves to shove Ryan Howard in the three hole and Chase in leadoff. And it simulates all games like they use a DH -rarely if ever PHing. I wish The Show existed for XBox 360…
by Airedale260 on Jul 30, 2011 2:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I wish The Show existed for XBox 360.
Holycrap. This. I would love to have that game.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 30, 2011 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
The Show is a fine baseball game. Let me tell ya. But while it’s lineup AI may be superior, it’s trade/FA AI is one of the most confusing things I’ve ever seen. According to my current RttS, Ryan Howard will be a Brave by 2013.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Jul 30, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
From Salisbury
Houston Chronicle reports that Phils got 2 mill from Astros. Means Phils paying about a quarter mill for Pence
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ESPN sez $1m
Are they gasp wrong?!
"He's a bum...this one stinks...this jerk can't play."-- A father teaching his daughter the Phillies lineup from the program roster, the Vet, c.1998
In other trade news, the Mariners and the Tigers completed the greatest trade in the history of mankind today.
Link.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
Well
I’m off to New Yankee stadium for O’s/Yanks tonight. Wish me luck. Don’t think I’ll wear any Phillies/Eagles gear today for safety’s sake.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
I hope you like concrete & over priced beverages
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
Been there before. It is outrageously expensive. I don’t like it as much as old Yankee, truthfully.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
I saw 2 of 3 games there in 2009 with the Phils, the year it opened. I was not impressed by the stadium…just too over the top for my liking…then again so is the city
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
I don't agree
In fact, I think it could have and maybe should have been more over the top. It’s boring as is. Big, concrete, no personality.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook
I thought it was nice, or as nice as the old one IMO. Yankee’s fans(in NYC only) seem to be more level headed then Mets fans.
Samesis
I was there for the 2010 Doc & CC game. Not a bad place, but the concrete didn’t thrill me. It’s not like CBP or Old Yankee where it had a “real” quality to it.
by Airedale260 on Jul 30, 2011 2:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Me either. It’s a boring stadium.
Although I never understood what was so great about the old Yankee stadium. It wasn’t a nice place either. I get all the “history” there, but it was nothing special as a building.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook
it was the history that always got me…it had an aura about it
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
I guess, but objectively it was an ok stadium with poor sight lines and crappy concessions.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook
Yes I have, and I pretty much agree. ACtually I went to a night game in Fenway and then drove to the Bronx for a 1pm game the following day. Part of a 7 day, 5 stadium baseball trip.
The atmosphere around Fenway is the best in baseball, but it’s a terrible place to watch a game. The sight lines are generally good, but you are packed in there, the seats are awful and you shouldn’t even try to get to concessions or a bathroom.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook
Rock the P
At the two Marlins games I went to @Joe Robbie, I saw a LOLMets fan bedecked, and a heckler in front of us who wore a Texiera with a tiffany hat. Wear ur pride!
"He's a bum...this one stinks...this jerk can't play."-- A father teaching his daughter the Phillies lineup from the program roster, the Vet, c.1998
Marlins fans are a little nicer than NY fans. Last time we went up there with our son to NY-Phils series, we were chased down the street by some NYY fan punks. Don’t really want to subject my little son to that. Taking the safe route.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
True dat…and much less numerous.
Someday I’ll tell you the story of drunken pipefitters dressed as ladies and clowns chasing friends of mine down Philly side streets, yelling “faggots!” (Yes, it was on January 1st)
"He's a bum...this one stinks...this jerk can't play."-- A father teaching his daughter the Phillies lineup from the program roster, the Vet, c.1998
I went there last year for a Yanks Phils game and by the seventh inning it was 40% Phils fans. I didn’t run into any trouble with Yanks fans and in fact enjoyed hanging with a lot of Philly people
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook
With the addition of Pence, I’d assume Ben Francisco gets sent down. Surprisingly, he has options remaining.
I read on the Twitters: Dom, BenFran optioned…Polly activated off DL.
Don’t know how accurate that is, though.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 30, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait. Matt Gelb says he doesn’t know other roster move besides Brown. If Gelb doesn’t know, then it hasn’t been announced.
Sorry for the misinformation. Appears I’ve been punk’d.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 30, 2011 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Hunter Pence is a good player.
We got him for some prospects. Like Drabek and Gavin Floyd. Do you know who our AAA team is? The Astros. When we need someone, we’ll call easy Ed and he’ll send us what we need. There’s really no need to be upset with this trade.
Q: What do a leaky tampon and Sean McDermott's defense have in common?
A: They are equally ineffective in the red zone.
"If Roger Goodell was on fire and I had to piss on him to put him out, I wouldn't do it...I hate him and will never respect him."
--The often wrong (but right in this instance) James Harrison.
I shall pretend this is not sarcasm
And you seriously believe Ed Wade got fleeced.
You know Ed Wade’s gone in 2012, right?
by JamesFromPhilly on Jul 30, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep.
Sure do. And he’s not going to be around to have to bear responsibility for the failure of the prospects.
Q: What do a leaky tampon and Sean McDermott's defense have in common?
A: They are equally ineffective in the red zone.
"If Roger Goodell was on fire and I had to piss on him to put him out, I wouldn't do it...I hate him and will never respect him."
--The often wrong (but right in this instance) James Harrison.
So let's keep milking the fucking cow.
Q: What do a leaky tampon and Sean McDermott's defense have in common?
A: They are equally ineffective in the red zone.
"If Roger Goodell was on fire and I had to piss on him to put him out, I wouldn't do it...I hate him and will never respect him."
--The often wrong (but right in this instance) James Harrison.
Wade got the better end of both the Lidge trade and the Oswalt trade.
Thanks for your regurgitation of incorrect conventional wisdom though.
Someone should write an article about that…
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 30, 2011 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Although, I’d argue that the Oswalt trade was the most fair to the Phillies, and he is clearly the best player of the 3 they traded for
Samesis
Yep
Gose, Villar and Happ. A regular Mount Rushmore of prospects.
Q: What do a leaky tampon and Sean McDermott's defense have in common?
A: They are equally ineffective in the red zone.
"If Roger Goodell was on fire and I had to piss on him to put him out, I wouldn't do it...I hate him and will never respect him."
--The often wrong (but right in this instance) James Harrison.
Gose is one of the top 50 prospects in baseball. Oswalt will accumulate less than 4 WAR before his contract expires – the value of that WAR is less than the amount he was being paid.
I take it from your name and the quality of your commenting here that you’re an Eagles-only fan who knows nothing about baseball. Maybe you should remedy that situation before you comment again.
the easiest way to explain this is to put it in different terms…i.e. Would you be happy if the Eagles were able to trade Asante Samuel for two 1st round picks?
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
well, late 1st or early 2nd rounders…but, you get the point. Most Eagles fans understand the value of draft picks as an asset, but it is much harder for general fans who don’t follow all levels of a baseball organization to place tangible value on prospects. After you’re done with that, you hit them with this doozy…“Dom Brown has more value as an asset than Hunter Pence.”
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
And Dom Brown is still on the team.
And Drabek part 2 is not.
Q: What do a leaky tampon and Sean McDermott's defense have in common?
A: They are equally ineffective in the red zone.
"If Roger Goodell was on fire and I had to piss on him to put him out, I wouldn't do it...I hate him and will never respect him."
--The often wrong (but right in this instance) James Harrison.
You have a point; I mean, I did hear they weren’t going to play baseball ever again after 2011.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Haha. I said the exact same thing to him in an earlier thread.
The Good Phight, Big Black Kids, and now NotGraphs. Fun!
It's pretty clear.
Bill James tells you what to think about the supposedly quantifiable aspects of single A players and you eat it up. The Phillies certainly don’t to seem to give much of a shit about Bill James.
And they’re doing pretty well.
http://archive.phillyarena.com/archives/2009-11-21/Phillies-not-interested-in-Sabermetrics
Q: What do a leaky tampon and Sean McDermott's defense have in common?
A: They are equally ineffective in the red zone.
"If Roger Goodell was on fire and I had to piss on him to put him out, I wouldn't do it...I hate him and will never respect him."
--The often wrong (but right in this instance) James Harrison.
You know that sabermetrics is bullshit.
But yet, here we are.
Q: What do a leaky tampon and Sean McDermott's defense have in common?
A: They are equally ineffective in the red zone.
"If Roger Goodell was on fire and I had to piss on him to put him out, I wouldn't do it...I hate him and will never respect him."
--The often wrong (but right in this instance) James Harrison.
Well I know it now. All is clear.
Eat it nerds!!
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 31, 2011 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
I am a Phillies season ticket holder.
Q: What do a leaky tampon and Sean McDermott's defense have in common?
A: They are equally ineffective in the red zone.
"If Roger Goodell was on fire and I had to piss on him to put him out, I wouldn't do it...I hate him and will never respect him."
--The often wrong (but right in this instance) James Harrison.
The right to hope they get Hunter Pence.
And win the World Series.
Done
Q: What do a leaky tampon and Sean McDermott's defense have in common?
A: They are equally ineffective in the red zone.
"If Roger Goodell was on fire and I had to piss on him to put him out, I wouldn't do it...I hate him and will never respect him."
--The often wrong (but right in this instance) James Harrison.
Only thing i don't
like is Brown being sent down. Would rather see him in left but as long as Charlie is coach, Raul will not see the bench. If he didn’t after a miserable first half then he won’t ever.
So here is something I was thinking about
Taco pal mentioned in a prior post that the teams that make the big trade splashes don’t win, while the minor tweaks are the ones that do. Since Beltran was definitely a bigger upgrade for the Giants than Pence was for us, does that mean we aren’t screwed?
/wishful thinking.
by Airedale260 on Jul 30, 2011 2:35 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
maybe the teams that need to make minor tweaks are more successful. We NEEDED a minor tweak and we got a huge one.
It's only gonna get funner
by VanceinmyPants on Jul 30, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Any word on Polly? We’ll he be in the game tonight?
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 30, 2011 2:53 PM EDT reply actions
It is settling in now...
However, it will quickly revert back if the other shoe drops and we find out the Braves acquired Michael Bourn…fingers are crossed
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
Domonic Brown is in the lineup for triple-A Lehigh Valley tonight, playing left field. New beginning for him. No word on other roster move.
Matt Gleb
Samesis
97.5 is saying that there was an Ed Wade conspiracy and that he could run for mayor based on this trade…
by Cole_Hamels_Can on Jul 30, 2011 3:16 PM EDT reply actions
Prospects
Every time we trade prospects, somebody says well the odds are against them being anything special. But when you trade 10-20 over a few years, those odds increase that you will get bitten later on.
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