You know what we think about the Hunter Pence trade, but what are others saying? Here's a sampling.
[T]he Phillies, for all their considerable resources, can go to this well only so many times. Two years ago, the Phillies traded Carlos Carrasco and Lou Marson to the Indians for Cliff Lee. A few months later, the Phillies traded Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Travis d'Arnaud to the Blue Jays for Roy Halladay. A year ago, the Phillies traded Anthony Gose and Jonathan Villar to the Astros for Roy Oswalt. Now they've traded two more of their best prospects for Hunter Pence. And what happens when the well is dry? Ruben Amaro is going to have to figure out a new way to win. Or be willing to lose for a year or two. Because while he's obviously quite accomplished at spending gobs of money and trading oodles of prospects, it's not clear what will happen when he can do just one of those things, or neither of them.
[I]t does appear that the Phillies overpaid in acquiring Pence. For a similar price, the Phillies likely could have pried B.J. Upton from the Tampa Bay Rays, who is more than a year younger and has a higher ceiling. In the event the Phillies re-sign their outfield acquisition, Upton is better in the long-term.
Pence's addition provides Amaro and his people with "cost certainty" -- the buzz phrase used two winters ago when they inked Blanton, Victorino and Ruiz to long-term deals covering arbitration years. It takes away their need to scour the free-agent market for a corner outfielder. They know Pence is probably due around $10 million in 2012 and approximately $13 million in 2013. But it doesn't make balancing the budget any easier.
More after the jump.
Making the playoffs means more money. Research by Vince Gennaro and Nate Silver has suggested in the past that the making the playoffs can be worth more than $20 million to a team going forward. Not only is there the $1.5-2 million in gate receipts per game, but there’s also the less quantifiable good will that leads to more regular season ticket sales in consecutive seasons. If the Phillies are already a virtual lock to make the postseason, another series could still be worth at least $10 million to the team.
But it's not entirely clear that adding Pence increases their odds of winning a playoff series all that much.
If we know one thing, its that Ruben Amaro Jr. doesn’t want to be left standing without a chair when the music stops. So he got his guy, the big league team got better, and the farm system took a hit, for now. I have every confidence that the system will be fine though, and I think this trade will work out for the Phillies.
Giving up Cosart and Singleton for Pence is an overpay in my view, but it’s not exactly something I’m going to lose sleep over. Instead, I’ll merely opine that the Phillies gave up too much for a player I like, when those same players may have been capable of extracting a greater return down the road, and get ready to root like heck for him.
In conclusion, I’ll say this: The Phillies are a better team now than they were at four in the afternoon on Friday. I’m not sure how much better, but they are better, and I’m certain that Pence is going to fill us up with much glee when he ropes his first double or knocks in his first game winning run, and I’ll be cheering for him the entire way. Doesn’t mean that I can’t be a huge fan of the deal, or that I’m not on the side of those who think that Pence is the be-all, end-all for the Phillies. Either way, it gives us one more reason to tune into the Phillies each and every night from now until the end of October. Not that we needed one.
The reality is that the Phillies lineup, as it existed, was flawed. It was too lefthanded. It sorely lacked the righthanded bat that’s been missing ever since Jayson Werth departed for free-agent riches in Washington. Pence can be that bat. He increases the chances that the Phillies will be able to cash in on one of the remaining years in their window of opportunity.
Factual errors on top of flawed logic.
Had the Astros insisted on Brown in the deal and the Phillies arrived at the Sunday trade deadline, they would have had to have paid. They’d been reminded of that obligation earlier in the week when they were unable to hit the best pitching of the world champion San Francisco Giants. But in the kind of deal the Astros keep making with some weird determination to help the Phillies continue to rule the National League, Amaro was able to land Pence and keep not just Brown but 7-1 rookie pitcher Vance Worley. The preservation of Brown, though, was the genius of the deal. Brown may never hit big-league pitching. Yet enough people, Amaro included, think he will. And that’s why he has been in every Phillies trade rumor for three years.
On adding a bat like Pence when they already have the best record in baseball: I think our front office knows we’re in a special time here in Philadelphia. We have a good team and if they feel like there’s some room for improvement they’re going to make that move. … Prior to the trade we had a pretty good team. I think adding him, a power right-handed bat can definitely help us.
"Pretty good team." LOL.
#astros sold high on pence. yet still didnt get very much.
Zoo With Roy: OHAI
No comment needed.