Tit for Tat: Braves get Michael Bourn
While the Phillies enjoy their shiny new toy in right field, the Braves have gotten in on the Astros fire! sale! by acquiring center fielder Michael Bourn. A former Phillies farmhand, the 28-year old Bourn is hitting .303/.363/.403 on the year, leads the bigs with 39 stolen bases, and is generally regarded as an above average defensive player.
To get him, the Braves gave up Jordan Schafer and a trio of prospects (Brett Oberholtzer, Paul Clemens, and Juan Abreu) that won't be missed anytime soon in a strong Braves system. Frank Wren got himself a desperately needed offensive upgrade without surrendering any of his four stud pitching prospects -- or, indeed, anyone in the same neighborhood as Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Singleton -- so it's a great value deal for Atlanta. Bourn is under team control through the end of next year, as he enters his final year of arbitration in 2012.
10 months ago
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Samesies
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 31, 2011 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the Arrested Development reference, but I’m still really mad.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
WTG Rubes. Acting first really has its advantages, don’t you see?! The Braves only ended up with a better player for a lot less! Keep it up!
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, fun!
Actually I think their biggest complaint was he is left-handed…
by Airedale260 on Jul 31, 2011 10:38 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Gotta credit Wren on this one. Not ONE of the top four pitchers? Taco pal, this doesn’t really help the Ed Wade defense team. I don’t understand how the price on Bourn didn’t go up since Friday. Amazing.
Unfortunately, I don’t think there were any other bidders for Bourn. Maybe if the Phils had gotten into the game, but of course, that wasn’t to be. If the Braves were the only bidder, then the price was just whatever they were willing to pay. The market set by the Phils became irrelevant.
Especially because the Stros were forced to cut payroll and HAD to trade Bourn. I wonder if someone gets Wandy/Myers for cheap, too. Though, the market for SPs is more competitive.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 31, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
From what I have heard, There is no real interest in either Rodriguez or Myers. But then again, the Indians just paid a ton for Jimenez, so maybe somebody hopes a change of scerery would benefit one or both of those players.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Jul 31, 2011 1:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It should also be mentioned that the Phillies were really the only serious players for Pence too. I think this trade is less about Wade getting too little from the Braves as it is about Wade getting too much from the Phillies.
Bourn for that price, while Hunter is far more expensive. Wow, Wren got suckered again…haha.
…wait we did what? Oh Fuck…
by Airedale260 on Jul 31, 2011 10:33 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
So much for the whole “acceptance” thing in the grieving process. This blows. Ed wade just got ass raped. Why couldn’t RAJ have done that.
by Boundforbeach on Jul 31, 2011 10:33 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Because Ruben is either an idiot or else felt sorry for Wade…oy.
by Airedale260 on Jul 31, 2011 10:39 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Just as this news broke, some Phils beat writers tweeted quotes about how much Pence loves the fans. I see right through you, Zolecki.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 31, 2011 10:33 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
One thing I will say: Pence is definitely a better fit for the Phillies than Bourn would have been.
That said, hard not to be frustrated with this development, obviously. Jordan Schafer is an offensive non-entity, and as far as major league pieces go, he makes J.A. Happ look like an All-Star. None of the prospects are impact guys — Oberholtzer’s probably the best and looks like a potential back end starter. What’s really mind blowing is that Wade took a high risk, high reward package from the Phillies in exchange for Pence, but got absolutely no upside in the package he “wrangled” from Frank Wren.
Not to mention that Bourn is the better player of the two. This obsession with “roles” and “fit” in baseball is ridiculous.
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, fun!
by FuquaManuel on Jul 31, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Unfortunately, fan opinion seems to play a large roll in these front office decisions and a light-hitting speedster would have been greeted with revolt over fan favorite Right Handed Bat, Hunter Pence, a.k.a. Ryan Howard’s Bodyguard
Baseball: the only sport whose commissioner wants you to think it is still 1960.
by phillies fan in bowie on Jul 31, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Which is really scary, because as we have seen, most of these fans have little to no clue about how baseball actually works. A good GM takes fan opinion into account but ultimately does what is best for the organization and protects fans from themselves…
by Airedale260 on Jul 31, 2011 11:03 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don’t know if he’s that susceptible to fan opinion or if he honestly believes Pence is that much better and more valuable than Bourn.
I think it’s probably the latter.
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, fun!
by FuquaManuel on Jul 31, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I know you’re right, but deep down I don’t want to believe that the people who run baseball teams (cause it’s not just the Phillies) can be that close minded.
Baseball: the only sport whose commissioner wants you to think it is still 1960.
by phillies fan in bowie on Jul 31, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Fan opinion goes the other way real quick when you start to lose games. A few losing seasons and all of the sudden fans don’t like the moves they were lauding at the time. Fans are funny that way.
And thus should be ignored.
Some owners are the same way- LOLMets.
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Jul 31, 2011 1:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Generally agreed on the latter point, though if we’re analyzing who the Phillies would prefer on their team (not taking into account, for a minute, the cost of acquiring either), “fit” is important in the sense that Bourn has derived a lot of his value from his glove, and Victorino’s presence means there’s no real defensive alignment where you get the maximum value out of Bourn. Put another way, I’m not sure if a Victorino/Bourn defensive alignment saves you that many more runs than a Victorino/Pence defensive alignment (especially given the dimensions of CBP), at least not enough to make up for the difference between Bourn’s and Pence’s bats.
Now, all that said, you obviously have to take into account the cost of acquiring these guys, and that’s where the deal for Bourn is clearly a better move. It actually reminds me a bit of the 2009 trade deadline: sure, Cliff Lee wasn’t quite as good a pitcher as Roy Halladay, but the cost was so much less that it made the decision a no brainer.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 31, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, the defense issue is a good point.
Really seems like Amaro was the one who ended up getting played here. Sounds like the Braves drove the price up on Pence. Good for them. Smart move.
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, fun!
by FuquaManuel on Jul 31, 2011 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I’d rather jam the square peg in the circle hole if you’re tell me that the square peg is more valuable than the circle peg would have been
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 31, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Pence is definitely a better fit for the Phillies than Bourn would have been
I find it difficult to argue with this… though it doesn’t make me any happier that the Braves got a major upgrade for a negligible cost.
Wade’s punishment should be that he either doesn’t get to come back at all when Houston cans his ass, or that his job is something like “clown in stocks who gets tomatoes thrown at his face.”
As the resident TGP apologist for taking Bourn over Pence I'll argue this
It’s defensively that would have made Bourn a better fit. He would have given the Phils a better outfield in 2011, and an awesome outfield defensively in 2012, with literally two Gold Glove outfielders along with 3 outstanding defensive infielders, plus Chooch. With four aces, it’s defense you care about, not offense. I would be happy with a WS championship where all scores are 2-1 (some fans, and certainly Cholly, might disagree).
Pence’s defense is slightly above average at best. This mitigates his upgrade into the lineup. The fact that the Phils might have gotten Bourn for relative dreck only makes this more annoying.
Hunter Pence will not guarantee a WS, but, then, neither does Carlos Beltran.
the sad thing is, most Phillies fans will say Pence > Bourn. They will also say that Pence its for average when Bourn doent. they will say a lot of things to justify the trade, but none will work on me I tell you.
Samesis
Already happened to me when I told my dad that the Braves had gotten Bourne and paid much less for him. “Well, Bourne’s a good player. He’s not a great player.” Sigh. I wanted so badly to say, “You could say the same about Hunter Pence,” but I’m just tired of trying to make that argument.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Jul 31, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
You know, I always thought the pattern went pitching, defense, contact (or speed; I’ve been up all night), then power. Bourn is a better defender (although this year he has -4.3 UZR through today, if I’m reading this right.)
by corwinlinnel110 on Jul 31, 2011 11:17 AM EDT reply actions
UZR shouldn't be viewed
For less than one season. It’s a verrrrry large sample size statistic.
by JamesFromPhilly on Jul 31, 2011 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the heads up. New to saber metrics, so I’m learning as I go. Still, in that case, he would seem like a very good defender. Especially in Houston, with that deep center and the hill.
by corwinlinnel110 on Jul 31, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
good for them...
but we didnt need a bourn-type player so im chill with it
I hate new york.
by XxActionJacksonxX on Jul 31, 2011 11:23 AM EDT reply actions
I love the logic of Phillies fans: “Ohh, you hate the trade, i guess that means you hate Pence too. Stop liking the Phillies if you hate everything they do”
Samesis
Compared to what just got Bourn on the Braves…
yeah, fuck Hunter Pence, give me Bourn any day of the week
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 31, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
This is making it even tougher to swallow the Pence deal.
I swore to myself yesterday that what’s done is done, and I just need to welcome Pence as a part of the team, for better or worse.
Today I wake up and read this. The only thing that could make this whole situation worse is if a team like the Pirates or Reds manages to steal B.J. Upton away for a dirt cheap price.
God damnit.
I swore to myself yesterday that what’s done is done, and I just need to welcome Pence as a part of the team, for better or worse.
I follow this, but that doesn’t mean I still cant voice my opinion
Samesis
fuck that. I wish we had Bourn more than Pence’s leatherlooking face. I don’t give a fuck if he’s a Philly guy…give me 39 stolen bases for a leadoff man hitting 303 any day of the week
Ruben Amaro looks like a jackass right now. The smug advisory system should be very low, because Ed Wade just fucked the shit out of him compared to the ATL deal
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 31, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Don’t worry. He’ll fix this by trading for Heath Bell.
I can’t tell if my rising nausea is from the stomach flu or something else.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 31, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Does Bourn have one more year of team control beyond this one?
That’s one thing that Pence has him beat at, although probably the only thing.
by The Howling Fantods on Jul 31, 2011 11:59 AM EDT reply actions
Of course, I now see that this post mentioned the one more year of control.
by The Howling Fantods on Jul 31, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Bourn has one more year and Pence has two
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
by DirtyWaters on Jul 31, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
This is an important point. The Penter deal was a deal made at the the trade deadline, but it is no a classic “deadline deal” where a pending FA is dealt for prospects. The Phillies filled a corner OF hole with this deal knowing that the OF market this offseason is thin. Also, the Penter deal is a vote of confidence for Brown. Really. Next year, they are pretty much locked in to an OF of Vic/Pence/Brown. If this deal also buys Brown a respite and some cover from the retard wing of the fanbase until next spring, that’s a bonus, too.
I am irritated that the Phillies paid so much compared to the Braves, but the extra year may explain it a bit.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 31, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s not entirely fair to Pence. He does have more power than Bourn (.161 iso to .100 for born; and Pence’s iso is low this year compared to a .189 career). Bourn’s speed is a lot greater than Pence’s but other than that they are fairly even.
Baseball: the only sport whose commissioner wants you to think it is still 1960.
by phillies fan in bowie on Jul 31, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, forgot Bourn’s better defense.
Baseball: the only sport whose commissioner wants you to think it is still 1960.
by phillies fan in bowie on Jul 31, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
But Bourn’s +defense doesn’t add as much benefit to the Phillies because of Vic.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 31, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Right, but I was just looking at the two compared to each other, not for the Phillies. When you factor in the Phillies, Pence probably “fits” better because his defense is more complementary to Victorino and Rollins is already the team’s leadoff hitter.
Baseball: the only sport whose commissioner wants you to think it is still 1960.
by phillies fan in bowie on Jul 31, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Right. Like FM said above, “fit” is usually completely overrated, but in considering Pence and Bourn in the context of a potential Phillies acquisition, it actually has some utility here.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 31, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I strongly disagree here. See above.
Hunter Pence will not guarantee a WS, but, then, neither does Carlos Beltran.
from my leadoff hitter, i don’t care if he has power. I just want him to get on base, then steal bases.
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 31, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
But Jimmy’s your leadoff hitter.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Jul 31, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
If Jimmy’s hellbent on hitting homeruns, I’d rather slate him 3rd or 5th, and move Utley to batting 3rd or 5th
Ideally:
Bourn
Vic
Utley
Howard
Rollins
Polanco
Ibanez
Chooch
Pitcher
What we have:
Rollins
Vic
Utley
Howard
Pence
Polanco
Ibanez
Ruiz Pitcher
I’d prefer the first one, because I like the idea of speed in my 1 and 2nd batting order
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 31, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
As nice as that first lineup looks, if you drop Jimmy from the leadoff role for a trade deadline acquisition, you lose him in December to a team that’ll pay him to lead off.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: faster than your favorite team's new starting cornerback, in all likelihood.
Nnamdi Asomugha: better than your favorite team's new starting cornerback, in all likelihood.
Hunter Pence: better than your favorite team's trade deadline acquisition...I hope.
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Jul 31, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I really don’t think Jimmy would mind dropping down the lineup for Bourn
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 31, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
We can hope, but wasn’t he less than thrilled when we dropped him last year? (I could be wrong, but I feel like I remember that)
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: faster than your favorite team's new starting cornerback, in all likelihood.
Nnamdi Asomugha: better than your favorite team's new starting cornerback, in all likelihood.
Hunter Pence: better than your favorite team's trade deadline acquisition...I hope.
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Jul 31, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
and just to add to this, even if we had Bourn…you know Charlie. He’d put Bourn at 7 or something like that and lead Rollins off, even if it were plainly obvious Bourn should be first.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: faster than your favorite team's new starting cornerback, in all likelihood.
Nnamdi Asomugha: better than your favorite team's new starting cornerback, in all likelihood.
Hunter Pence: better than your favorite team's trade deadline acquisition...I hope.
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Jul 31, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
He might even pull a LaRussa and try Bourn as a “second leadoff” in the 9 hole.
Baseball: the only sport whose commissioner wants you to think it is still 1960.
by phillies fan in bowie on Jul 31, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
You know, I’m not actually sure he would. He’s shown some willingness to bat Jimmy in different spots, and Bourn is just a far and away better base stealer at this point.
You forget that Charlie always sticks with His Guys™ through thick and thin.
"What's gonna happen is that you jerk off the ball. You almost want to let this guy here jam you, and if it comes, it comes." Gary 'Sarge' Matthews
by Senor Octubre on Jul 31, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re right, that’s not really the only thing he’s better at.
In a vacuum, I definitely think Bourn is better than Pence on balance, though.
by The Howling Fantods on Jul 31, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
It is settling in now…However, it will quickly revert back if the other shoe drops and we find out the Braves acquired Michael Bourn
quoting myself from yesterday
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
and for peanuts
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
by DirtyWaters on Jul 31, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Michael Bourn, you will be missed buddy. I don’t care if you underachieved here, I’d take your prowess on the basepaths than this leatherface looking dbag any day of the week
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 31, 2011 12:04 PM EDT reply actions
It’s not Pence’s fault Ruben is an idiot.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 31, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
no, but at the same time I will always view Pence in this regard as long as he’s a Phillie: Ruben valued you more than the player you’re not as good as
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 31, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but that doesn’t make Pence a dbag. In fact, he seems like a nice guy. It isn’t really fair to be mad at Pence. Be mad at Ruben if you want.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 31, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but even if this turns out to be a bad trade for us and he isn’t worth it, it still doesn’t make sense to be mad at Pence for not making himself equal to Singleton/Cosart. Pence isn’t a jerk because Ruben overpaid for him. I don’t get the Pence hate. The guy busts his butt.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 31, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Humans are irrational beings.
I dislike Howard only because of his contract, even though I know it’s silly. If he was making like $10-15 million for the next 3-5 years I’d love him like a brother.
Not his fault, but I still don’t like it.
I guess I just don’t feel that way. Can’t fault Howard for taking a boatload of money that was offered to him.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 31, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah.
For Pence, it’s important to separate the player from the fans who love him more than they should. I’m not going to clap politely for Pence at the ballpark the way I do for, say, Ross Gload. But I’m not going to give him ovations or anything.
Yeah, I think this is what is causing some people around here to get defensive. They like the trade for more complex and well thought out reasons than the “OMG HE’S SO GRITTY HE PLAYS THE RIGHT WAY OMG” crowd, but they feel the need to push back against the snark because they feel uncomfortable being associated with this crowd in their general approval for the trade.
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, fun!
The level of disappointment here...
…is perfectly understandable given the differences between the packages surrendered for players with pretty similar value. But some of the reaction is completely over the top. Yes, Frank Wren made a far better deal than Ruben Amaro here. But reading this thread, you’d think that Bourn is an in-his-prime Carlos Beltran, while Pence is a terrible baseball player.
It’s the price tag that makes this whole thing frustrating. It’s not that Bourn is 10 times the player Pence is.
The difference in price tag is more than enough to justify these reactions, at least initially.
Rubes bid against himself and paid way more than he needed to for Pence, while the Braves completely ripped off the Astros for Bourn. What it says about the competence of our GM is the bigger concern, in my opinion.
by The Howling Fantods on Jul 31, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I have a feeling Wade may have realized how desperate Ruben was to make a deal, and thus knew he could get more out of him. The Braves’ front office may have come across as willing to make a trade only if it was right, while what we know of Ruben’s personality seems to imply he always feels the need to make a big splash trade of some sort.
Since we weren’t witness to the negotiations, we’ll never know, but this Bourn deal seems to say that Wade may have taken less for Pence if he were dealing with a GM other than Ruben. That, or maybe he undervalues Bourn for some reason.
Ahh but as noted, we did trade for two years of Pence. So this does make a bit more sense with that taken into consideration. Still surprised the Astros didn’t get at least one top prospect out of the Braves, though.
I think people are quite undervaluing the length of control for Pence’s contract. I’m certain that a big reason that Ruben wanted him was because he’d be around for 2.5 years, solving the impending OF hole during that time and allow the lineup to be more balanced (i.e. less left handed).
I don’t think that Bourn is 10x better than Pence. I think Bourn is clearly the better player than Pence, and the fact that Ruben gave up more for the inferior player bothers me
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 31, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Amaro gave up more for a slightly inferior player, but one that is still pretty good, and one that will be around for 2.3 years instead of 1.3 years.
So, Amaro received twice 2.3 * WAR of Pence vs. Wren getting 1.3 WAR of Pence. He probably should have paid more.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 31, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Wren getting 1.3 WAR of Bourne.
Bleh.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 31, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Bourn is making 4.4 million this year, and Pence is making 6.9 million this year. Now, Bourn will be a free agent next year, correct? Pence is on pace to earn (I guess it’s what, 10 million next year?)
So would 12.5 million for a 1 year contract buy us the decrease in war from potentially losing Bourn next year?
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 31, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Free agency
Born will become a free agent at the end of 2012. He’s in Atlanta for 1.5 years now, assuming he isn’t re-signed.
by JamesFromPhilly on Jul 31, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough. I’d stick to statements like that, then, instead of the “leatherface looking d bag” type comments, because while the former is a perfectly rational position, the latter makes you lose all credibility.
You make sense
I should probably withdraw the dbag comments
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 31, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Was about to say this:
Everyone’s complaining about how Pence’s BABIP is too high, but Bourn’s this season is 40 points over his career average, exactly the same as Pence.
His OBP is 8 points higher than Pence’s and 1 point lower for his career.
His OPS is 57 points lower than Pence’s this season and 120 points lower for his career.
His wOBA is 10 points lower than Pence’s this season and 30 points lower for his career.
As for defense…acknowledging SSS, Bourn has a lower UZR than Pence this year. He does have a higher UZR/150 of about 5 runs over his career, but both of their UZRs have kinda been all over the place the last few years and both were positive every year before this year.
And finally, he’s obviously a better baserunner, by a lot.
So he’s clearly a better runner than Pence, is probably a better fielder regardless of this year, and is by no means a better hitter, unless you’re putting a whole shit ton of weight into his OBP being 8 points higher this year. About 2/3 of the difference in their WAR this year and in the past is because he plays in center field while Pence plays in right, and because he’s had more PA than Pence—two things that aren’t really in Pence’s control, and play into account because Bourn’s WAR wouldn’t be as high here because he wouldn’t be in center nor would he be the leadoff hitter.
So is the only complaint here that our package was a lot better than theirs? If that’s the case, I understand, but to act like Bourn is far and away a superior player than Pence is not fair.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: faster than your favorite team's new starting cornerback, in all likelihood.
Nnamdi Asomugha: better than your favorite team's new starting cornerback, in all likelihood.
Hunter Pence: better than your favorite team's trade deadline acquisition...I hope.
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Jul 31, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait, one thing: Would Bourn’s UZR (or TZ or whatever) necessarily decrease because he’s in LF? I could be wrong, but I don’t think it works that way. The UZR can stay high, it’s just that the “positional value” stat that goes into WAR calculations goes way down.
For instance, Brett Gardner has tremendous defensive stats as a LF for the Yankees. I have a hard time believing they would be even tremendous-er if he moved to CF. Same with Carl Crawford while he was in Tampa.
If Bourn moved to LF, his UZR would likely experience a fairly decent jump while his positional adjustment would suffer. They could end up balancing out, or one may be a slightly bigger factor than the other. Over the course of a full season, the positional adjustment change going from CF to LF is -10, or ~1 WAR.
Considering UZR is peer-based (i.e. you’re putting Bourn against Ibanez instead of Victorino in relating their defensive values), I’m inclined to believe that the jump in UZR would be a tad more significant, earning him a touch more WAR overall…but that’s conjecture. WAR would likely balance out, plus/minus a couple tenths.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I don’t think I said (but if I did, I certainly didn’t mean) that his UZR would go down, just his positional adjustment—and in turn, his WAR—like you said. That was what I meant.
Bourn has produced 10.2 more runs this year than Pence, per Fangraphs. However, they’ve given Bourn 4.5 runs for playing CF while they’ve docked Pence 1.5 for playing RF. That and they give Bourn an extra 1.2 runs for having taken 36 more PAs this year. Basically, Bourn’s WAR has benefitted from playing CF and hitting leadoff, two things he would not be doing here, and outside of those he’s only 3 runs ahead of Pence. All of which are a product of his baserunning, since Pence is a better hitter and somehow has a higher UZR this year.
With that said, if you were annoyed because on the Braves he WILL be playing CF and hitting leadoff, that’s a fair point.
Furthermore, the point below about his UZR possibly going up if he switched to LF might be true. I know very little about how UZR actually works, so I’ll take your word for it.
My biggest point was basically that hailing Bourn as this ultimate leadoff hitter and defensive God is hardly fair when the guy we just got is quite obviously a better overall hitter and has played above-average defense every year before this one.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: faster than your favorite team's new starting cornerback, in all likelihood.
Nnamdi Asomugha: better than your favorite team's new starting cornerback, in all likelihood.
Hunter Pence: better than your favorite team's trade deadline acquisition...I hope.
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Jul 31, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
*point above, I guess. My bad.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: faster than your favorite team's new starting cornerback, in all likelihood.
Nnamdi Asomugha: better than your favorite team's new starting cornerback, in all likelihood.
Hunter Pence: better than your favorite team's trade deadline acquisition...I hope.
by everybodyhitswoohoo on Jul 31, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
so true…in fact I feel like I need to qualify my statements by saying I’m happy the Phils have Pence so that it doesn’t get lost in my disappointment in the deal comparison with Bourn.
"Have you seen this Perez guy pitch? I'm a pacifist, but I've never seen anything so violent look so beautiful."
by DirtyWaters on Jul 31, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope we’re done, unless we get a reliever really cheap. We have solid bullpen depth, especially considering that once we reach the playoffs we can put Worley in the pen and the other starters should go deep into games.
Baseball: the only sport whose commissioner wants you to think it is still 1960.
by phillies fan in bowie on Jul 31, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Mitch Williams is just spewing garbage on MLB Net right now.
Baseball: the only sport whose commissioner wants you to think it is still 1960.
by phillies fan in bowie on Jul 31, 2011 12:27 PM EDT reply actions
After spewing a bunch of BS about how the Phillies didn’t have a RH bat in the 5 hole behind Howard. Um… Shane Victorino?
Baseball: the only sport whose commissioner wants you to think it is still 1960.
by phillies fan in bowie on Jul 31, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s funny, I could have sworn I saw that in my completely ridiculous and overly snarky recap last night. ; )
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, fun!
by FuquaManuel on Jul 31, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Braves didn’t give up much because Bourn is not really an All-Star whereas Pence is and has more value over the long hau
Samesis
I'll one up you
It appears many more teams were in on Pence than Bourn. Bourn is a light hitting left handed center fielder. Pence was what the Phillies needed and the Phillies traded what was necessary to get him./blockquote>
Bourn is a lefty hitter with no power. Phillies needed a righty hitter with pop. Braves originally wanted Pence as well it appears. Yes, the package for Bourn appears to be smaller. Phillies didn’t want or need Bourn. Phillies wanted and needed Pence. Bourn is better than Pence will ever be? Really?
/blockquote>
and after I said protection in the lineup doesn’t even exist
statistical evaluation? I want Pence up with the first 4 guys in front of him instead of the mishmash of guys that have been in that spot. that’s all the evaluation i need. I can’t believe you are actually complaining right now?!?!/blockquote>
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 31, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
That was a lot of fail on my part
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 31, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought it was really Josef Albers of you.
by j reed on Jul 31, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The Braves gave up 4 dudes who are AA or above. The prospects they gave up were closer to the majors and were a safer bet for the Stros. Sure, they’re ceilings aren’t as high as Singleton/Cosart, but the chances of them making an impact at the mlb level should be higher. Maybe Ed Wade was willing to take a lesser package because of the relative security it offered?
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
Also, none of the Braves guys are pitchers with potentially exploding elbows. In fact, I took an (extremely cursory) look at the Braves package, and no injury/potential bat-only red flags.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 31, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Phillies are still looking for relief help before 4 p.m. deadline, but after Pence deal have fewer bullets to use.
I'm giddy
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
This is just stupid, especially with the relief help we already have at AAA. What would the reasoning be for a reliever other than just having another vet?
Baseball: the only sport whose commissioner wants you to think it is still 1960.
by phillies fan in bowie on Jul 31, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Bell no, Adams yes.
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, fun!
by FuquaManuel on Jul 31, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem with Adams is his price tag is supposedly higher than Bell’s.
Baseball: the only sport whose commissioner wants you to think it is still 1960.
by phillies fan in bowie on Jul 31, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
As it should be, because he’s a much better pitcher.
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, fun!
by FuquaManuel on Jul 31, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
But Bell has an awesome Yoda backpack. We’re missing out on goofy-closer-ness.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 31, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I retract. Madson has a finger moustache tattoo. Forgot about that.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 31, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Right. I meant it’s almost prohibitive because SD really wants to keep him.
Baseball: the only sport whose commissioner wants you to think it is still 1960.
by phillies fan in bowie on Jul 31, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Apparently not so much anymore. Latest I heard was that they were trying to move both.
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, fun!
I’d love them too (more than Hunter Pence), but what price will the Phillies be able to pay without gutting the farm? Stark says the Padres scouted the Phillies AAA pitching staff. I want Adams as long as it is not a high price tag.
Writer at SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog, The Brotherly Game. Follow me on Twitter.
trade curt schilling for him
"My grandmom's favorite grandson, ask my grandmom" --Rone
by layout ultimate on Jul 31, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
So yeah, to sum up:
1. Bourn is better than Pence, though not by that much.
2. Bourn is a better fit for the Braves while Pence is a better fit for the Phils, but this isn’t a hugely important consideration
3. Pence has another year on his contract, but Bourn is getting paid less per year
4. The Phillies paid about 3x as much for Pence as the Braves did for Bourn
But the Phillies’ package carries higher risk.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 31, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I totally missed your comment about risk above. Sorry.
I'm a left-hander in a right-hander's body.
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 31, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I think risk is encompassed within #4, or at least that’s what I intended to convey. The expected value of the Phils’ ex-prospects is higher because of their potential ceilings.
But if Pence makes this team better, and is what this team needs right now. That’s instantly more valuable than prospects who have to wait several years before making the majors. When you’re a winning club, you have to factor in everything and if there’s a move you can make that’ll make you better, you make it.
It’s when your a losing team(like say the Sixers), or when you wanna blow it up(like the Flyers did), that you trade for prospects and you protect your young players or farm system.
Also, I have to refute the point about fit being irrelevant, synergy is important in any sport. Heck, it’s important in life. If you’re a man that cares about health, would you date a woman that smokes cigarettes and has reckless abandon for her health? No, you want a woman that compliments you.
The best teams have the most synergy, guys like Rollins, Victorino and now Pence can put bat to ball and get on bases. That allows guys like Utley/Howard to be able to drive in those runs. That’s called synergy and we have a lot of it.
Hence, Pence shouldn’t be hitting behind Howard. He should be hitting ahead of him.
1:Rollins
2:Victorino
3:Utley
4:Polcanco
5:Pence
6:Howard
7:Ibanez
8:Ruiz
9:Pitcher
Utley/Howard in the 3 and 6 spots make the most sense for driving in runs. You can even play small ball because of the speed of those three(Rollins, Victorino, Utley), because 4th up, Polly is a nice contact hitter as well. And we all know Ibanez is streaky, but he has some pop.
by LeQuan Glover on Jul 31, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
If you are asking, yes, I’d take the smoking hot chick.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 31, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and lineups don’t make that much difference.
And if you were that torqued about lineups and setting the table for RBIZZZ GUYZZZ, you’d put your guy with the .350+ lifetime OBP higher in the lineup.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 31, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
If you’re a man that cares about health, would you date a woman that smokes cigarettes and has reckless abandon for her health? No, you want a woman that compliments you.
I’m a health nut, but I’m pretty sure I’d just pick the woman with the biggest breasts.
by Lawlzors on Jul 31, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You have absolutely no clue what you are talking about and yet, here you are, talking.
The Good Phight, NotGraphs, fun!
by FuquaManuel on Jul 31, 2011 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Interesting, I find that Bourn’s speed and defense fits the Phillies better. Maybe it would be a surplus.
You and I are in synch.
I’m not fully ready to post this, but here goes: I think the one advantage of the trade is that Pence would have been a better fit for the Braves. Yes, yes, I know they wanted a CF. However, the Braves offense is so terrible that the marginal upgrade of Pence on offense would have meant a lot more for the Braves than it does for the Phils. So, ironically, while I hate the idea of getting Pence for premium prospects instead of giving up virtual dreck for Bourn who I think defensively would have been a much better fit, it may work out better for the Phils by preventing the Braves from getting Pence, who I think for them would have been a much bigger upgrade as opposed to Bourn.
Hope this makes sense.
Hunter Pence will not guarantee a WS, but, then, neither does Carlos Beltran.
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