kERA revisited- Phillies Starters and Volatility.

by dannijd on Jul 4, 2011 12:56 AM EDT

Just a little bit volatile... via media.trb.com

This afternoon, Cliff Lee started July with a performance that was as ugly as his June was beautiful. When Lee imploded in the eighth, it was sudden and traumatic- 4 runs went on the board in the blink of an eye, turning a narrow lead into an almost sure defeat. This got me thinking about just how volatile Lee is- when he is good, he is amazing (as he was in June) when he is off, he falls apart just as spectacularly. He is in many ways the pitching equivalent of the little girl with the curl right on the center of her forehead.

Last June, David S. Cohen created the kERA, or Kendrick ERA stat in response to Kyle Kendrick's volatility- to that point in the season, he had been either very bad, or very good, with almost no in between. He developed this stat by taking the difference between the pitcher's ERA in the best half of his starts, and his ERA in the bottom half of his starts. At the time, the group thought was that the better the starter, the more a smaller kERA would be desireable, as for lesser pitchers, the volatility would make it so that some of their starts would still be very winnable.

With that in mind, I looked at the Phillies starters to see how their ERAs, kERAs, and win-loss records fit together. For the purposes of this writing, I looked at every Phillies pitcher to start a game (with the obvious small sample size warnings for pitchers not named Hamels, Halladay or Lee). The results are after the jump.

Pitcher	Starts	Overall ERA	Good Starts	Bad Starts	kERA	Record	Team Record in his starts
Roy Halladay	18	2.44	1.03	3.92	2.89	11-3	15-3
Cliff Lee	18	2.92	0.50	5.86	5.36	9-6	11-7
Cole Hamels	17	2.41	0.70	4.42	3.71	9-4	11-6
Roy Oswalt	13	3.79	1.85	6.40	4.55	4-6	5-8
Vance Worley	7	2.29 (2.61)*	0.61	5.34	4.73	3-1	5-2
Joe Blanton	6	5.50	2.45	8.80	6.35	1-2	3-3
Kyle Kendrick	6	3.81 (4.80)*	0.60	9.00	8.40	2-2	3-3

* Vance Worley and Kyle Kendrick's overall ERAs include relief innings. Their ERAs as starters are indicated in parenthesis.

Unsurprisingly, Cliff Lee had the largest kERA among the four aces, almost a run higher than Roy Oswalt's. At his best, he has been the best pitcher on the team in terms of runs allowed, allowing half as many as Roy Halladay. But taking only his worst starts into account, his 5.63 ERA would tie him with J.A. Happ at 61st of 62 NL qualifiers.

More amazing, however, was Roy Halladay- while he has not had the eye-popping games Lee has (no complete game shutouts, and a higher average for his good starts), his bad starts still average up to be only slightly below league average. This is what makes him the ace of this team- his dependability. He was only truly awful once (and that was aided by a stellar relief performance by David Herndon).

While evaluating the three aces on this team is a very small sample size, it seems that for aces, unlike their lower in the rotation counterparts, consistency brings better results.

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Comments

Interesting.

1. Very surprising that Worley has made 9 starts. I mean, wow. Wouldn’t have thought it was that many,
2. In your first paragraph, your sixth word probably ought to be “July” rather than June.
3. If this were a thesis defense, I would ask you to compare this conclusion to other ace-level pitchers around the league around the league around the league, to see if it holds up. It seems obvious enough, however, that you’re probably correct.

In any case, I think this is evidence that while Cliff Lee (and Hamels) is very very good, Halladay is a generational talent, and we are blessed to have him.

by Phrozen on Jul 4, 2011 4:07 AM EDT reply actions

1. I erred- Worley has made seven starts. That has been corrected- the calculations were right.
2. Fixed.
3. This is actually why I was asking for the names of other ace level pitchers- I wanted to look at two things both involving expanded sample sizes. The first was whether a lack of volatility benefited other teams with elite pitchers (part of why I did not want to go with just #1 on the depth chart across the board) benefitted from increased consistency (and whether there was much of a correlation with a drop to overall ERA). The second, is whether such reductions to volatility carried over an increased sample size.

Offense, offense, where are you?

by dannijd on Jul 4, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

his is actually why I was asking for the names of other ace level pitchers

In the NL, I would say:
Lincecum, Carpenter, Josh Johnson (when healthy), Kershaw, Greinke, I’d be hesitant to include any Braves pitchers, as their best guys aren’t very well established yet, but I would take Hanson to be their Ace if I had to.

AL:
Verlander, Sabatthia, King Felix, Weaver,

by Cormican on Jul 5, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Interesting list. You’d take Kershaw with his 101 career starts and 3.18 ERA but not Hanson with his 71 career starts and 3.02 ERA or Jurrjens with 107 starts and 3.26? And the Braves also have Tim Hudson, with a lengthy resume including over 360 starts, 12 shutouts and a career ERA of 3.43. I have to believe that the AL has more than four aces currently. Tampa Bay has two horses in Price and Shields, Boston has a decent rotation with two big names in Beckett and Lester, and there are assorted other top-level pitchers like Mark Buehrle and Dan Haren who are just as reliable as Kershaw or Greinke. Ultimately, if dannijd or someone else does a study involving elite pitchers it will be subjective in determining who is an elite pitcher – or there will have to be a guideline that will involve its own limitations on what is being analyzed.

by phillyinportland on Jul 5, 2011 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Jurrjens doesn’t belong because his DIPS just aren’t that good. The problem with Hudson’s track record is that it’s too long – he’s still a good pitcher, but he’s past his prime.

So that leaves Kershaw vs. Hanson. Having 30 more starts is a legitimate basis for choosing one over the other, although it’s undoubtedly a thin line.

by taco pal on Jul 5, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

top 15 in xfip, last three years, min 300 ip (total 111)

1. Halladay, 2. Lincecum, 3. Wainwright, 4. Greinke, 5. Johnson, 6. Lester, 7. Haren, 8. Hernandez, 9. Lee, 10. Hamels, 11. Verlander, 12. Nolasco, 13. Kershaw, 14. Carpenter, 15. Gallardo

There are some obvious problems here. For instance, some of these guys had to face the DH. Some didn’t. Some faced the DH for part of the three-year period, but not all of it. Still, it’s a pretty good starting point for a list.

Hanson is 33rd, but given that the last three years were the first three of his career, he should be marked up from that position. Jurrjens is 66th.

by taco pal on Jul 5, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

By last three years, I meant last two-and-a-half (April 2009-ASB 2011). Hudson is in 23rd place.

by taco pal on Jul 5, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s a good list. I think Wainwright is an ace when healthy (similar to Carpenter in that regard). I forgot about Gallardo and didn’t realize Nolasco’s numbers were that good. From that elite list there are only ten teams represented, as the Phillies with three and the Cardinals, Brewers and Marlins with two each, use up the extra spots.

by phillyinportland on Jul 5, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions

If you lower the cutoff to 250 IP, Jaime Garcia slots in at 13th. Hudson gets knocked down to 26th and Hanson to 37th.

Another thing this doesn’t measure is durability. Captain Cheeseburger is only 25th on the list, but I think you’d have to rank him over someone like Josh Beckett, who’s xFIP is slightly better, but who can’t be counted on to pitch as many innings, meaning you need more innings from your middle relievers and/or injury replacement starters.

by taco pal on Jul 5, 2011 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Technically, the list was fairly top of my head, but TP actually pretty much covers my exclusion of the named pitchers. Secondly, if Danni were to use just current year’s stats, that excludes Wainwright (mentioned later). On a subjective note, neither Beckett, Buerhle or Haren strike me as Aces. #1 starters? Yes, but to me Aces are the absolute best of the best. I wouldn’t list more than, maybe 15-20 true aces in all of baseball.

by Cormican on Jul 6, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, for the record

I usually get annoyed about people who get subjective about things like that, but I crossed checked my list of double-standards, and this case is included.

by Cormican on Jul 6, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions

What I am playing with right now is actually pulling it back to cover a period similar to or even longer than the one TP suggested (I was backing it out to 2008, although I think that may be quite unwieldy. I have two theses that I am trying to test- first whether lower amounts of volatility among elite pitchers leads to more wins for their teams and whether over a larger sample size kERA tends to settle down.

"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."

by dannijd on Jul 7, 2011 12:24 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

How does Worleys bad starts look without relief innings? As I remember he had some awfull reliefs innings

by Anders Jensen on Jul 4, 2011 9:55 AM EDT reply actions

Worley’s numbers (like Kyle Kendrick’s) were calculated based solely on starts. Also, Vance Worley only has a pair of relief appearances this year, neither of which were particularly awful- he earned holds in both and only allowed one run that did not have an impact on the ultimate result.

Offense, offense, where are you?

by dannijd on Jul 4, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Side note

Is it just me, or did the Phillies do a great job of selling high on JA Happ? He’s not really as bad as that 5.5+ ERA, but he’s not exactly good, either.

by Rujasu on Jul 5, 2011 8:30 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah it was a good deal, no matter what happens with Oswalt. Gose and Villar could contribute at the ML level but I don’t think they’ll be real difference-maker type players.

Happ will probably be a 4th/5th starter somewhere, and that’s fine, but the way some people acted like he was this young superstar in the making was just absurd. He’s older than Cole Hamels, for crying out loud.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jul 5, 2011 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

It was certainly a good trade for the Phillies, but I think it was also a good trade for the Astros. Oswalt is/was a short-term, declining-value asset who could not have even produced any compensation picks because of his player option. He’ll probably give the Phillies about 4 WAR combined from last year and this year, which is/has been extremely valuable to the Phillies but would basically have done nothing for the Astros. Whatever value Happ, Gose, and Villar produce over their careers could very well exceed 4 WAR, and they’ll certainly be no worse off in any seasons that matter for them down the road.

by taco pal on Jul 5, 2011 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions

I don’t disagree that it was the right move for the Astros (I’m assuming they didn’t leave a better deal on the table) but I don’t think the Phillies lost anything of serious value. Villar or Gose might have value down the road, but neither really seems like an impact player to me. Happ is quite easily replaceable.

I do think the three of them will exceed 4 WAR over their careers, but I doubt they’ll be able to match Oswalt’s contribution per season for the Astros. Again, that doesn’t make it a bad deal for Houston at all. It reminds me a lot of the Curt Schilling deal, actually. Wade didn’t get anything of any long-term value out of that deal (well, arguably Padilla) but keeping Schilling around wouldn’t have helped much either. (I like the Oswalt deal a little better, though.)

by Rujasu on Jul 5, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

gose

By the way, I just looked at Gose’s stats for the first time in a while. He’s had an up-and-down year in AA, but he’s hitting .395/.439/.789 in his last ten, including 4 HR in his last six. Overall .261/.353/.419. Plus his walk rate’s well over 10% this year, his SB rate is at 80%, and he hasn’t turned 21 yet. I think he still has a very good shot at turning into a bigtime player, maybe even an all-star.

by taco pal on Jul 6, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I’ve always been a Gose fan, and frankly, if he got to the majors with that line, I’d call that a success for a guy with his speed.

by Cormican on Jul 6, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes and no- Happ had incredible luck as far as wriggling out of jams with men on base during his time in Philadelphia, but is also suffering from a crappy defense- His FIP is over a run below his ERA which suggests bad luck, and his BABIP is over fifty points higher than his career averages (with the caveat that his career before this season was short enough that the real J.A. Happ probably lies somewhere in between.

The important thing to realize though is that Happ was also a cost controlled player- he was under club control at a low cost for the next several years- he was what the Astros were looking for in the trade- a cost controlle major league starter, and the Phillies were helped by Oswalt’s no trade clause preventing the Astros from dealing him wherever- so while they may have sold high, it was not that high.

"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."

by dannijd on Jul 5, 2011 10:38 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I’m well aware that Happ is cost-controlled, and already acknowledged he’s better than the 5.5 ERA. I’ve looked up his numbers, and his 4.4ish FIP and xFIP sound about right to me. He’s a 4th or 5th starter as WholeCamels suggested, or could end up in the bullpen later in his career. He’s marginally better than Kyle Kendrick but marginally worse than Vance Worley. And really, at that talent level it doesn’t matter so much if he’s cost-controlled since there are guys out there you could sign in the $1M-$2M range (or even MLC) who could do the same thing. Teams don’t generally spend much money on the back end of the rotation, unless they have amazing top-to-bottom staffs (see Phillies) or they made a huge mistake giving a guy big money and relegated him to the back end (see Giants). For everyone else, you either call the next guy up from the minors or sign a dime-a-dozen veteran.

When the Phillies dealt him, he was seen as a possible #3 or possibly even a borderline #2, but that looks unlikely now. Not that we didn’t see it coming, but he was giving the kind of performance that can fool a mediocre GM such as Ed Wade. So yeah, I’d say they sold high. Happ will be in the big leagues for many years, but I don’t expect him to ever be a major commodity. A rebuilding team like the Astros isn’t going to be able to build a foundation around him, and for a contender like the Phillies, he’s expendable.

by Rujasu on Jul 5, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions

I don’t think it’s possible to conclude that Wade was “fooled” by it. The fact is that Wade had a terrible negotiating position when he made the deal because Oswalt was heading out the door whether he dealt him or not, plus his market value was declining with every passing day. Unless there was some other deal out there for the Astros that was better than the deal they made, you can’t say one way or another whether Wade overvalued Happ.

by taco pal on Jul 5, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

You’re right that we don’t know for sure. It’s possible that Wade could have overvalued a player who he drafted himself, and maybe he could have bargained for someone like Worley who could have more upside. But really, we have no idea.

Still, all I’m getting at is that Happ looked a lot sexier a year ago, and I have to think that some “baseball men” would look at him as being less valuable today. Whether Houston’s people feel that way or not, I don’t know.

But yes, I fully realize why Ed Wade made the deal, and I absolutely think he made the right deal. I do think he’s a mediocre GM who could have easily overvalued a guy like Happ, but he’s also a guy who understands the value of acquiring and keeping prospects, particularly when rebuilding.

by Rujasu on Jul 5, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, I don’t think any employable/qualified talent evaluator pegged Happ as a borderline #2.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jul 5, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions

You may be right there. Before he came up, I always heard reports putting him in the middle or back of a rotation at best. After he debuted, the media seemed to be running with the idea that he was a potential second or third starter. I didn’t buy it then, and I don’t buy it now, but apparently someone did. I don’t know if anyone employed by a major league organization believed it, though.

by Rujasu on Jul 5, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

The media did what the media does- hype a new player having a hot start without looking at whether the peripherals even supported it. Do not trust he media for your talent evaluations!

"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."

by dannijd on Jul 5, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Again, I never bought this guy as a #2 or even #3 starter. I think he’s a serviceable but easily replaceable big league starter. He doesn’t add much to a team but he’s an improvement over someone like Kendrick. If I want talent evaluations, I’m going to go to somewhere like Fangraphs or THT (or TGP!) to get it. That said, I do believe that there are still a fair number of baseball executives out there who aren’t much smarter than the guys who write for the Philly Daily News. So it figures that some team might buy into the kind of player who looks nice based on the surface-level stats. They’re the same kind of people who will say a guy has “poise,” “gets himself out of jams,” and “intangibles.” So yes, JA Happ is far from a top-of-the-rotation starter, but that doesn’t mean some GM couldn’t have been fooled by his performance. (Particularly one who once traded for Bruce Chen.)

by Rujasu on Jul 5, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Hey, the Chen trade was a great deal. All they gave up was a 32-year-old Andy Ashby, and they got a recent-top-10 prospect according to BA. The Braves were down on Chen at that moment, but it was a great risk to take.

A better example would have been Turk Wendell.

by taco pal on Jul 5, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Touche. I didn’t realize Chen was that highly regarded when they picked him up.

by Rujasu on Jul 5, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah he was a big deal. Check it out:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/people/prospects/prospectsYear.asp?Y=1999

by taco pal on Jul 5, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow. That list is fascinating. Chen at #4 in particular, but plenty of other names on there are striking.

Also, maybe that’s part of the reason Chen has managed to hang around for so long.

by Rujasu on Jul 5, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree. It is fascinating. The top five pitchers on the list are Chen, Brad Penny, Ryan Anderson (!), Matt Clement, and Roy Halladay. Surprised to see that Pat Burrell was ranked so low, #19.

by phillyinportland on Jul 5, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Anderson blew out his arm, so that wasn’t necessarily a misread on their part.

by taco pal on Jul 5, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Ryan Anderson

Who knew? As they say, young pitchers are a crapshoot and Anderson was a very young pitcher then. I was thinking how ironic that not only Chen and Halladay went to the Phillies eventually, but wasn’t Anderson on some sort of comeback trail with the Phillies last spring?

by phillyinportland on Jul 5, 2011 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

No that was Matt Anderson, whose story was very similar to Ryan’s. No relation though.

by taco pal on Jul 5, 2011 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks

Ah, yes, Matt, not Ryan Anderson. I see he was released by the Phillies on April 2nd so I guess he wasn’t even considered worthy of a minor league deal. Too bad. Would have made for a nice Lifetime Movie. Looks like both were drafted in 1997, which might be why I confused them. Ryan never made the majors, apparently, and it appears (according to Wikipedia) that he’s now shooting for the world’s tallest chef award.

by phillyinportland on Jul 5, 2011 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I was amazed that Marlon Anderson was still a prospect in 1999. I thought he surpassed the service time threshold by then.

by Cormican on Jul 6, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions

What exactly is this? How much service time makes a player not a prospect?

"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."

by dannijd on Jul 7, 2011 12:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

It is isn’t really a standard on many things, but most people use the Rookie of the Year numbers as a cutoff (130 at bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club (excluding time in military service or on the disabled list) before September 1 of the previous year).

A lot of people also use a subjective 25 years old as a cut off for prospect status. Again, though, that’s a personal cut off some use and some don’t.

by Cormican on Jul 7, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Lets hope Atlanta

doesn’t see the writing on the wall, and does what they should do, which is dangle jurrjens at the deadline to someone foolish enough to value him as a top of the rotation ACE type pitcher. Cause there are a few teams out there (The Yankees, Rangers, maybe even Red Sox )who would likely overpay OUT THE YAZOO in prospects and maybe even a RH bat to get him

Why?

He only makes 3.25 MM this year. he has two more arb eligible years.
11-3 record, 1.89 ERA hides his mediocre 3.67 xFIP, 44% gb rate and way low 4.6% HR/FB rate and .257 BABIP.

Here’s how he ranks statistically:

Wins 1st
ERA 1st
WAR 29th
FIP 24th
xFIP 50th

Seriously. They could make out like bandits, and everyone would call them crazy until the regression hits around September…

25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!

by Joecatz on Jul 6, 2011 1:00 PM EDT reply actions

Boston’s too smart for that. Probably the Rangers too. And I don’t think the Braves have the guts to do it even if they know it would be smart.

I think I saw one rumor that some team might go after Beachy. Which would be HILARIOUS if they could pull it off.

by taco pal on Jul 6, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

No way they trade Beachy.

Beachy has way too much upside, and is way too cost controlled to even think about moving. But its crazytime the next three 1/2 weeks and every year something totally ridiculous like that happens.

I agree with you on Boston, not sure about Texas. The Yanks would totally overpay for JJ, though, and Nolan ryan is old school when it comes to that stuff. Especially if he gets the nod to start the AS game, and looks decent.

And I could totally see Theo getting involved just to drive the price up, let NY and Texas know he’s in, and have no intention of making the deal happen. (Kind of like the Blanton rumors after Lee signed, which, IMO, was smoke to try and get the Ynakees to offer something for him.)

25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!

by Joecatz on Jul 6, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

not sure about Texas.

Agreed Nolan Ryan currently has a rotation made up mostly of duct taped spare parts and #3 starters and rode it clear to an AL title last year. I could see him believing Jurrjens can maintain his current success under the tutelage of Maddux and himself.

by Cormican on Jul 6, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

How involved does Nolan get in personnel matters? I guess he hasn’t been owner long enough to say. I think Jon Daniels is pretty smart, but yeah, if ownership gets involved, anything can happen.

by taco pal on Jul 6, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I doubt Ryan would have much involvement if it were a hitter trade, but a Pitcher, I’m sure he’d get his say in there.

by Cormican on Jul 6, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

What I meant was

I could see this conversation happening:

DANIELS: They want too much for what he brings to the table long term?
RYAN: You mean, like a 1.89 ERA and close to 20 wins? Daniels: I mean an xFIP thats 50th in the league…
RYAN: horseshit. He’s 1st in wins, and 1st in ERA. Don’t tell me thats smoke and mirrors. Plus hes cheap. Who’s better out there?
DANIELS: Thats not the point.
RYAN: You wanna ride this staff back to the dance?
DANIELS: not really.
RYAN: You wanna face him in October?
DANIELS: Nolan…
RYAN: I’m not telling you how to do your job, Jon, but theres more to baseball than sabermetric mumbo jumbo. this kids a winner, and hes controllable. make it happen before the yankees do.

25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!

by Joecatz on Jul 6, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Based on nothing more than his own pitching career, I would think Ryan would be partial to guys who get a lot of strikeouts.

by phatj on Jul 6, 2011 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Regarding Beachy having too much upside – yeah, you would think. It wouldn’t be the first time the Braves overpaid for a veteran though. As good as Teixeira is/was, Saltalamacchia + Andrus + Feliz was an overpayment.

by taco pal on Jul 6, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

You forgot Matt Harrison

who slid right into their rotation in 2008 at the ripe old age of 22…

Think about that.

July 31st 2007 Braves trade Andrus, Feliz, Salty, Matt Harrison and Beau Jones for Texiera and Ron Mahay. Mahay signed with KC the following off season.

July 2008 Braves trade Texiera for Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek.

Marek is still in the Minors.

Kotchman hit 237 for the braves in 2008, and they traded him the following July for Adam LaRoche.

Who left via free agency the following off season.

So essentially, they gave up 4 guys who LITERALLY took texas to the World Series in 2010, for about a year of Texiera, and another 2 years of musical chairs at 1B… That doesnt even BEGIN to talk about how bad they’ve juggled around at SS.

Thank god for us they were that STUPID.

What a great example of the carelessness of the win now at all cost mentality.

As for texas? all they netted was the ROY runner up in 2009, the ROY in 2010, and a guy (Harrison) whos been a consistent back end rotation piece for three years.

And they traded Salty for peanuts and a bag of cash, but, hey… Is what it is…

25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!

by Joecatz on Jul 6, 2011 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Boston may be smart, but any chance that they do it out of desperation? Buchholz is on the DL with a back injury and was supposed to see a specialist this week, Lester was put on the DL today with a lat strain, and Lackey has been blowing goats for most of the season. Maybe they take Juerrjins figuring that he is progress on what they have.

"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."

by dannijd on Jul 7, 2011 12:30 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

jesus

in 2008 Andrus was the 19th ranked prospect, Felis 93rd (jumped to 10 in 2009) Salty was 18th in 2007, Harrison was 90th in 2007, and Beau Jones was a first round pick in 2005.

Thats just CA-RAZ-EE!!

25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!

by Joecatz on Jul 6, 2011 3:36 PM EDT reply actions

It should be pointed out...

that John Schuerholz made that deal, in his last year as GM. No way Frank Wren would have done that deal, IMO.

"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti

by sddbaker on Jul 6, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Probably right.

But he pretty much gave Texiera away the next July for Kotchman and a former 40th round pick. Half season rental 12.5 MM salary or not, thats a pretty pathetic deal for a guy who was hitting .283/.390/.512 with 20 HR 78 RBI and a 65 BB to 70 K ratio.

He would, coincidentally, go on to hit .358/.449/.632 with 13 HR and 43 RBI (32BB to 23 K) in 54 games for the Angels, and go 7-15 with a 1.017 OPS in the postseason as well.

The initial deal for Texiera was horrible, but the give away and return back might be as bad.

25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!

by Joecatz on Jul 6, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions

A sidenote...

They also ended up with a prospect by the name of Mike Trout with the Yankees 1st round pick in 2009.

So essentially, the Braves gave Texas Andrus, Salty, Feliz, and Harrison, which gave them a trip to the world Series in 2010,

and gave Texas Texiera (who really pushed them to the postseason in 2008) AND Mike Trout, who they would not have drafted if not for the type A compensation….

Man, that deal gets WORSE AND WORSE the more you dig…

25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!

by Joecatz on Jul 6, 2011 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I think you meant to say they gave the Angels Teixeira and the draft spot to take Mike Trout – who is one of the top-rated prospects in baseball for the Angels. I don’t know if TGP would ever forgive a GM for that kind of foolishness.

by phillyinportland on Jul 6, 2011 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Over all

we are pretty happy with our front office / scouting / development. The good FAR outweighs the bad.

by sddbaker on Jul 7, 2011 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions

That's pretty much the sentiment

With just about every team in contention consistently. Doesn’t change or mask the sheer boneheadedness of both sides of that trade. It was top 5 all time bad.

25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!

by Joecatz on Jul 7, 2011 7:28 AM EDT up reply actions

It seems like scouting and personnel are two somewhat distinct functions, even though they work in conjunction with one another. The Braves have outstanding scouts, perhaps the best in MLB – this has been the case for a long time. But their major league player personnel people are not so great.

by taco pal on Jul 7, 2011 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Well, the GMs biggest responsibility is negotiation (of trades, contracts, etc.), if you suck at that it’s hard for scouting to overcome bad contracts, badly balanced trades, etc. And while the good may outweigh the bad in some ways, one could make a fairly reasoned argument that the Braves could have won a World Series last year or at least beaten the Phillies for the Division if their rotation was Hanson, Lowe, Hudson, Harrison, Feliz with a line-up also including Andrus.

Braves scouting has gotten them Freeman, Heyward, Beachy, Minor, Hanson and that helps, but not getting rid of top tier talents for a rental would also be great.

Perhaps Braves fans can say the same thing in a few years if Carrasco and Knapp develop into top of the Rotation starters and none of the Seattle 3 do much in Philly.

by Cormican on Jul 7, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions