Great Phillies All-Star Game Moments of Greatness: 2002 - Vicente Padilla's Cowardice Lets Phillies Celebrate at Home in 2008

by WholeCamels on Jul 5, 2011 3:00 PM EDT

The worst event in Major League Baseball history took place on July 9, 2002, at Miller Park in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The All-Star Game, until then a fairly casual exhibition game, ended with that most dreaded of American sporting outcomes -- a TIE!! -- resulting in a wholesale reworking of the entire All-Star Game and postseason schedules. Commissioner-for-Life Bud Selig, as is his custom, addressed the "problem" in a manner similar to treating dandruff through decapitation (thanks, Frank).

Selig and Co. decided that the best way to preclude this most horrible of outcomes was to make the All-Star Game "count" by assigning home-field advantage in the World Series to the league that won the Midsummer Classic. Among the problems caused by this -- including bullpen arm abuse -- are that the All-Star team managers are saddled with only so many discretionary choices. After the voted players, the "sole representative" obligation picks, and the player picks, managers generally only have a very small handful of actual players they can pick on their own. As a result, managers cannot field the best possible teams. Additionally, managers are pressured to get everyone into the game, which frankly is reasonable. But now that a couple pitchers have to be withheld in case the game goes into extra innings, some players never get to take the field.

So how does (alleged) sociopath and alcoholic Vicente Padilla come into this? Padilla was an All-Star selection for the Phillies in 2002. Padilla was brought in to pitch after the game entered extra innings tied at seven runs apiece. Padilla pitched two hitless innings, but was unable to continue. National League Manager Bob Brenly did Phillies manager Larry Bowa a solid by not grinding his starting pitcher's arm into dust. The problem? Padilla was the National League's last available pitcher.

With both leagues out of players, the umpiring crew consulted with Bud Selig, giving us this "thousand words" photograph:

Selig_medium

And so the game was called, the score tied at seven runs apiece, and America rioted. Now our All-Star Game "counts." Hooray!

The upshot to all of this? You may recall that the American League triumphed in the 2008 All-Star Game, giving the AL home-field advantage in the World Series. Thanks to this, the World Champion Phillies were able to celebrate their four games to one victory on their homefield. So, thanks Vicente! Drinks on me. You can take your "Fallacy of the Pre-Determined Outcome" and shove it, Plato! Baseball is a man's game!

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One can make the statistical argument that now that the all-star game decides homefield advantage, the result of that game is more important than any of the Phillies other games in early July.
Using a model:

p(world series championship) = P * N * W, where

P = p(making the postseason)
N = p(winning first two rounds given that the team made the postseason)
W = p(winning the world series given that the team gets into it)

Let’s assume for now that W is a 50/50 proposition to start with, before the all star game. If the NL wins the game, NL now has home field advantage. Using a simple binomial distribution model, W now goes to 0.513. The methodology that I use for this part is best described by this article.

So, new p(worldseries) = .513/.510 * old p(world series). That represents a 2.6% increase.

In order to determine the benefit to winning a regular season game, first one must start with a model of postseason probability. For this I prefer coolstandings.com as opposed to baseball prospectus; I just have a sense that they have a way of working kurtosis into their distribution that is better for analysis of tail probabilities. (In any event, using BP would make the Phillies an even greater postseason lock and place more relative emphasis on the all-star game result.)

So, the result of a regular season game will have an approximate +/- 0.5 win impact on ExpW of the Phillies (which is currently 97.7). This difference in expected win will result in an approximate postseason probability difference of 1.0%. (As a for example, on June 30 the ExpW of the Phillies went down by 1.0 while the Braves were off and the rest of the NL posted mixed results. The Phils postseason probability dropped 2.1%).

Thus, the net result of a regular season game loss is postseason probability going from 87.4% to 86.4%. This is only a decrease of 1.1% in P, and thus a 1.1% decrease in overall p(world series victory).

The analsyis misses a few concepts. Some of them are: the Phils regular season win might come against the Braves which is more valuable, also the regular season win slightly increases the probability of homefield advantage in the NL playoffs, which is worth something, and also finally the win will often correlate with a good performance which will increase the perceived strength of the team). But overall, I don’t think these are enough to make a difference in the conclusion.

by Vaughn Haze on Jul 5, 2011 4:10 PM EDT reply actions

this is longer than the article.

The Jruth shall be told.

by packimop on Jul 5, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Should read .513/.500 = 2.6% increase

by Vaughn Haze on Jul 5, 2011 4:11 PM EDT reply actions

You may recall that the American League triumphed in the 2008 All-Star Game, giving the AL home-field advantage in the World Series. Thanks to this, the World Champion Phillies were able to celebrate their four games to one victory on their homefield. So, thanks Vicente! Drinks on me.

On the other hand, if they hadn’t changed the rule, the Rays would have had home field in the ’08 Series anyway. The Angels had home field in the ’02 Series, so the AL was on even-numbered years. (It used to be AL in odd years, NL in even years, but it flipped after the strike.)

by taco pal on Jul 5, 2011 5:27 PM EDT reply actions

Good point. But the Phillies would have had home field advantage in 2009 when it might have mattered vs. the Yankees.

by phillyinportland on Jul 5, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

might have mattered? Take a look at the impact each team had from the “DH” position, whatever the hell that is.

"My grandmom's favorite grandson, ask my grandmom" --Rone

by layout ultimate on Jul 5, 2011 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions

You have a way with words. :)

by phillyinportland on Jul 5, 2011 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Look at Bud, throwing the gang signs

The “sole representative” BS always annoyed me, as does the stars who get selected for past success (welcome back, Mr Jeter). The game deciding home field in the WS only makes both of these annoyances worse for me. If the point of the ASG is to include the best players in the game, it should be an automatic cut based on numbers, not fond memories, Gilette commercials and the fact that you’re the one slightly above average player on a terrible team.

I liked the idea for the Home Run Derby this year until Fielder and Ortiz selected, what to me, a rather uninspiring cast of contestants. No Mark Reynolds? Hell the only thing he’s capable of is power hitting. Besides, it might be fun to watch a guy strike out in a HR Derby (his other specialty). I would have liked to see Mike Stanton or Carlos Pena in the NL.

I am seriously grumpy today.

by Cormican on Jul 6, 2011 1:31 PM EDT reply actions