Gutted: Phillies 14, Marlins 2
by WholeCamels on Jul 5, 2011 11:38 PM EDT
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Despite the absence of their best player to date this season, as Shane Victorino made the trip to Philadelphia to have his right thumb examined, the Phillies scored a season high 14 runs and collected 18 hits, also a season high, en route to a 14-2 drubbing of the Marlins tonight in Florida.
Cole Hamels, who started to the Phillies, did a fine job, going eight full innings and allowing both Marlins runs on a two run home run from Marlins catcher John Buck in the fourth inning. Hamels struck out five and walked just one, throwing 113 pitches. Hamels collected his 10th victory, joining Roy Halladay in the double-digit win club. Membership has its privileges.
But the boxscore doesn't lie; the real story tonight was the offense. Every Phillies starter collected at least one hit, led by Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard with four apiece. The Phillies broke through in the third inning with five runs off Marlins starter Chris Volstad. The drubbing continued in the fourth, as Ryan Howard continued his absolute ownership of Volstad, ripping a two run home run (Howard's eighth career blast off Volstad), giving the Phillies a 7-0 lead.
The Phillies piled on in the ninth inning, scoring six runs, led by Michael Martinez's bases-loaded, bases clearing triple, and Raul Ibanez's 10th home run of the season.
A steep drop on this here graph. Just how I like it.
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The only thing which would've made this the best day
Is if the Braves lost
SSS or not...
It’s amazing (and awesome) how the Phils dominate Volstad. Can anyone think of instance where a team has completely owned a pitcher like this?
by FanSince1993 on Jul 5, 2011 11:50 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Yeah, I guess lannan has respectable numbers against others. But despite his W/L, it doesn’t seem like we’ve mashed him like volstad
by FanSince1993 on Jul 5, 2011 11:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
but Volstad doesn’t attempt to kill Phillies
"A flute without holes, is not a flute. A donut without a hole, is a Danish."
Per Brotherlyglove: Volstad since 2009 vs Phils 50 innings 6.97 era, 1.69 whip, 15 HRs
by FanSince1993 on Jul 6, 2011 12:24 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Mitchometer Reading: Cole Knows Pitching
If you forgot or don’t know how ridiculous Bo Jackson was in Tecmo Bowl….click here.
If you missed the previous Mitch-o-meter installments….Boston…Oakland…and the original
"A flute without holes, is not a flute. A donut without a hole, is a Danish."
by DirtyWaters on Jul 5, 2011 11:54 PM EDT reply actions 8 recs
Doin’ the Lords work.
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Jul 5, 2011 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
That Tecmo Bowl run is just sick.
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
by Christopher A on Jul 6, 2011 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Or maybe this is the true mini-mart
by FanSince1993 on Jul 6, 2011 12:04 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Who, mini-mart -
one of the great bluesmen and rampant alcoholic who died at 51…. prolly more likely than becoming the Phillies next 5 rule wonder.
mini-mart too valuable
Dom Brown and Nite Owl should do
by FanSince1993 on Jul 6, 2011 12:14 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Cole Hamels is making so much money this year, it’s just nuts.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 6, 2011 12:15 AM EDT reply actions
$9.5 mil seems like a bargain to me
by FanSince1993 on Jul 6, 2011 12:20 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He was referring to
Impending free agency and the likelyhood that we try and sign him to a long term deal before the start of next season
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
I got it. I was half kidding and half pointing out how underpaid Hamels is relative to his value
by FanSince1993 on Jul 6, 2011 10:11 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Right now I imagine Cole’s thinking 6 years $110 million. And I think we should pay it, because other teams will.
That would be a fucking bargain. He’s going to be a really, really expensive sign. He’s likely to be better than Halladay or Lee by the ends of their respective contracts, if not sooner, considering he’s virtually even with them now, and he’s five years younger than Lee and seven years younger than Halladay.
I am worried about shane. Hopefully it is not serious and he will be available this weekend. They could use him to separate some more from the braves.
Were the MRI results reported yet?
"A flute without holes, is not a flute. A donut without a hole, is a Danish."
Grade 1 Strain
Most mild. http://zozone.mlblogs.com/2011/07/05/update-victorino-grade-1-sprain/
Victorino will remain in Philadelphia and be evaluated again Friday. If he is not better he could be placed on the disabled list.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
So DL possible, but no need to tape Humpty Dumpty back together again?
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Jul 6, 2011 1:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Not to open a can of worms here, but I don’t think Cole should have pitched the 8th. Nor do I think Herndon should have warmed up, for that matter. It was “only” a six-run lead after seven, but that was plenty to hand it off to Mathieson, Baez, Perez, and Carpenter.
He had a light outing before that, perhaps Cholly thought he had extra rope to work with? Then again, that doesn’t justify him being sent out for the 8th however.
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Jul 6, 2011 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Go ahead and open it. I want Hamels ready to pitch in October, not in a laugher in July when the playoff expectancy is about 96% and the game’s win expectancy is about 99.5%. This was not exactly a high leverage moment. And with some of the Phillies’ starting pitching on the shelf (Oswalt and Blanton), taking care of Halladay/Lee/Hamels should be job #1.
Why look'st thou so?' -"With my crossbow
I shot the Albatross."
by RememberthePhitans on Jul 6, 2011 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t think he should’ve batted in the 7th
by FanSince1993 on Jul 6, 2011 12:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I threw several things at the tele when Cole was trotted back out for the 8th…my only reasonable (I use that word loosely) conclusion was that Cholly wanted to make sure that he didn’t have to use Stutes or Bastardo, and he felt comfortable with 3 outs, but not with 6 outs so he waited….I don’t get it, but that’s nothing new when it comes to Cholly
"A flute without holes, is not a flute. A donut without a hole, is a Danish."
I disagree. He’d had an easy outing to that point and didn’t exactly have to reach back for his last reserves given the six-run lead.
Because the risk of a dropoff in performance would have had a 50% greater chance of affecting the game with 3 innings instead of 2. And because Hamels had thrown 14 fewer pitches at that point, putting him 14 pitches further away from the unknown limit where something bad would happen.
Of course, I understand the general point you’re making – there’s no mathematical way to quantify how much risk is incurred at each pitch count level in order to compare it to the size of the benefit. The problem with that argument is that in formal logic terms, it “proves too much.” The necessary logical implication of buying into that viewpoint is that there never be any right or wrong answers and there would never be any right to question any decision at all. Somebody could argue that Cole should have stayed in and pitched the 9th, and you would have no way to respond to that and stay consistent with what you’re saying here.
Just because we can’t quantify the precise tipping point doesn’t mean we can’t use our intuition about risks and benefits to evaluate whether the right decision was made at the margins of an individual case. There is some unknown risk X from letting Cole pitch the 7th. We can conclude from that letting Cole pitch the 8th carries a risk of some multiplier times X. We also know that the odds of losing a 6-run lead with three innings to go and inferior pitching on the mound is significantly greater if the inferior pitching has to get 50% more outs, and significantly smaller if the inferior pitching only needs to get 33% fewer outs. I look at these factors and conclude that the risk/benefit analysis makes it acceptable for Cole to pitch the 7th but not the 8th. If you disagree, that’s fine, and we can agree to disagree. But just saying “you don’t know exactly how many pitches equals the magic number” isn’t a reasonable response.
I don’t agree that there is an unknown limit at which something bad would happen. Injuries can happen at any time. There perhaps is some correlation between overwork and injury (I assume there is) but there is no magic number.
He was well below what is considered typical for a complete game going into the 8th, and had had a considerable lead for most of it, meaning that he had few high-leverage innings. That strikes me as an ideal candidate for going the extra inning. Apparently we disagree.
I don’t follow your first two sentences here. How do they not contradict each other?
Regarding your third sentence, if what you’re saying is that harm is incremental, then yeah, of course. If you’d prefer, you can think about it “when does the level of incremental, probabilistic harm become unacceptable?” Whatever that level is, we don’t know where it is.
In any event, I think you’re missing my point. The fact that there is no “magic number” was my whole point, and it supports what I’m saying, not what you’re saying. The logical conclusion to be drawn from the absence of a magic number (or the undefinability of exactly what pitcher abuse looks like, or whatever else you want to call it) is to weigh risks and benefits and take your best guess. The logical conclusion to be drawn is not to say “you’re wrong to think he should have come out in the 8th, because you can’t prove the line wasn’t actually in the 7th.” By that standard, nobody would have any right to express any opinion at all.
I thought you were saying that there was some finite, but unknowable, number of pitches which would cause injury. That’s what I was disagreeing with, but I gather that’s not what you meant.
Anyway, in the absence of any objective evidence that 115 pitches represents a meaningful difference in injury risk over 100 pitches, I think that given that 115 is well within what’s considered normal and expected that it’s very reasonable for Cole to pitch that, even in a virtually unloseable game.
You can of course make other arguments for taking him out – getting innings to the lesser bullpen pitchers to prevent them going stale, for instance. I would have had no problem with taking Hamels out, but I also have no problem with leaving him in.
He was well below what is considered typical for a complete game going into the 8th, and had had a considerable lead for most of it, meaning that he had few high-leverage innings. That strikes me as an ideal candidate for going the extra inning.
While I do think that reference to general industry practices is a legitimate consideration in weighing risks and benefits, I think you’re applying them wrong here. Yes, he was below what’s typical for a complete game going into the 8th. But what’s typical for a complete game shouldn’t be the number you’re looking for when you’re in a game situation in which you have zero to gain by from a complete game. The fact that this particular game was nearly unloseable meant that what’s typical for a complete game was too much.
The Giants are doing it again.
Oh, and they had someone run onto the field and scare the crap out of Rowand but they didn’t show it.
Guilty… But then again I have let my mother pick the entertainment the last few off days/ day games, and Barbara Streisand has been the theme… :/
"Valdez can pitch, Lee can hit... and pigs can fly."
by dannijd on Jul 6, 2011 1:44 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Not a bad choice – but then I just finally saw The Mirror Has Two Faces because I’ve been on a Jeff Bridges kick since True Grit. I’m about to watch Winter Kills.
by phillyinportland on Jul 6, 2011 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I love Jeff Bridges and have seen them all—not to sound all hipster but I’ve been crying about lack of attention to him for decades now. The Fisher King. Also, Thunderbolt & Lightfoot with Clint Eastwood. He’s really young in that one. Fab Baker Boys, obvs. The Morning After.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
The Fisher King, one of my all-time favorites. I just watched it again and it still makes me tear up.
by phillyinportland on Jul 7, 2011 4:26 AM EDT up reply actions
phils vs. anibal sanchez lifetime
Rollins: 8 for 27, 4 BB, 4 K, .683
Polanco: 7 for 15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR (?), 1 BB, 0 K, 1.567 (!)
Utley: 13 for 28, 4 2B, 2 3B, 2 BB, 3 K, 1.266
Howard: 8 for 25, 2 2B, 2 HR, 9 BB, 6 K, 1.140
Ibanez: 3 for 17, 3 BB, 3 K, .476
Ruiz: 5 for 19, 2 2B, 6 BB, 5 K, .808
Brown: 1 for 6, 1 BB, 0 K, .452
IT’s these matchup posts you give us that drive home how damn good Utility is. Not that it needs driving in.
by Phrozen on Jul 6, 2011 2:06 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Break up the Buckos!
the Pirates moved into 2nd in the central and won their 45th game of the year….they didn’t get to 45 wins last year until Sept 3rd…36-40 down the stretch would break the 17 year losing record streak
"A flute without holes, is not a flute. A donut without a hole, is a Danish."
Starting Thursday
Cards have four (at home) against the Diamondbacks
Brewers have four (at home) against the Reds
Pirates have three (at home) against the Cubs
Pirates actually have a chance to end the first half in first place.
That’s awesome. More power to them. I just hope we don’t see them in the postseason.
I’m rooting for them, the Diamondbacks, the Royals, and the Mariners.
It's just a game. Why you have to be so mad?
by LeepinLizardz on Jul 6, 2011 6:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Going for the underdog, eh? Every once in a while you hit one.
by phillyinportland on Jul 6, 2011 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Did anyone else feel sorry for the Marlins last night? Any other opponent, I would’ve felt fine grinding them into the ground. Or I also would’ve been fine with, say, winning the game by five. It’s something about the Marlins, their young guys, their pathetic losing streak, the lack of fans in the seats…not sure what it is. It’s like kicking a sick dog.
When Ibanez hit his homer, my first thought was “Catztradamus!” and my second thought was “haha, Michael Martinez.” but my THIRD thought was “look how incredibly deflated they all look. That’s really sad.”
Maybe I’m just being a sentimental girl.
It's just a game. Why you have to be so mad?
Is he life’s consolation prize?
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Jul 6, 2011 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions
games 76-81 (currently HOT)
6 games, 23 PA. .318/.348/.682 (1.030 OPS) 2HR, 2 2B, 6 RBI, 1 BB, 5 K
all five K’s from two games where he went a collective 0-9 (to be fair, the 3K game was against Lester, and if he hadn’t have broken out the night before, probably wouldn’t have played…)
Still not sure if the Boston game was the beginning of the hot streak, or a false positive at the end of the cold streak, but we should know for sure by the weekend.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
No, because that organization already has 2 WS titles in its short existence and they’ve been a thorn in our side for so long, I enjoy returning the favor.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
That changes next year when they move into the new stadium….they will be the Miami Marlins.
A proud member of the Church of BaseBa'al
by WanderingMoses on Jul 6, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
marlins lifetime vs. kendrick
Bonifacio: 2 for 10, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K, .573
Infante: 3 for 12, 0 BB, 0 K, .500
Sanchez: 7 for 13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1.386
Ramirez: 6 for 25, 2 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K, .680
Morrison: 3 for 6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 1.500
Stanton: 2 for 8, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, .875
Buck: 0 for 1, 0 BB, 0 K, .000
Astonished but also dismayed...
that Charlie inserts Valdez AND Mini-Mart into a struggling lineup and we have an offensive explosion. Collectively 2 for 11, but I’m sure Cholly sees the 2 run single and (who cares) 3 run triple as awesome and reason to keep these 2 on the roster and playing. We need a decent utility guy who can spot start and pinch hit- Ty Wiggington maybe?
21-4 in the last 25 games at Sun Life…however, 1-7 in their last 8 road get away games
"A flute without holes, is not a flute. A donut without a hole, is a Danish."
But he did pitch against the Cardinals in that laughalooza, 12-2 game. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
by phillyinportland on Jul 6, 2011 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions
kendrick
Despite my ripping on Kyle, I have to admit that he seems to have pitched much better since May 1 or so. Relatedly, he has some massive splits between his starts (30.0 IP) and his relief appearances (24.1 IP). How much of that difference is “real” and how much of it is just a coincidence? I would think it’s more the latter since it seems to me like his stuff would actually work better out of the pen. But that could be wrong.
splits
Apr: 10.0 IP, 0.90 K/9, 5.40 BB/9, 1.80 ERA, 4.84 FIP, 6.59 xFIP
May: 18.1 IP, 5.40 K/9, 3.44 BB/9, 3.93 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 4.45 xFIP
Jun: 19.0 IP, 3.32 K/9, 0.95 BB/9, 3.32 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 3.62 xFIP
July: 7.0 IP, 6.43 K/9, 1.29 BB/9, 7.71 ERA, 6.52 FIP, 4.30 xFIP
Starts: 30.0 IP, 5.10 K/9, 1.20 BB/9, 4.80 ERA, 5.01 FIP, 3.73 xFIP
Relief: 24.1 IP, 2.59 K/9, 4.44 BB/9, 2.59 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 5.53 xFIP
Something I heard on a broadcast was that KK has more time to prepare for the hitters before a start than coming out of the pen—develop a plan and the like. Not sure how true that is.
What kind of plane is it? Oh, it's a big pretty white plane with red stripes, curtains in the windows and wheels and it looks like a big ol' Tylenol.
those numbers are all over the place. I don’t know what to think
I eat sentimentality for breakfast, but stats stop me dead in my tracks
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 6, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
A few thoughts...
The more I looked at his relief appearances this season, the more I agree with you about him being better suited to relief.
His april numbers are a bit misleading, if you consider that there was a 10 day span where he didn’t pitch between the 8th and the 18th. On the 18th, he came in in the 12th inning and gave up 3 runs (1ER) on 1 hit, but walked 3 batters. I chalk that up as much to rust as anything else.
Take that 1 inning away, and his K/9 in relief jumps up a tick, but his BB/9 drops to 3.5, his ERA drops to 2.33.
I have no idea how to calculate FIP or xFIP myself, but take those 3 BB in 1 inning away, and I would assume it drops significantly as well.
Also, the K/9 as a starter is out of whack for two reasons. Brett Hayes and Edwin Encarnacion. He struck both of them out twice in one game last time he had 5 a piece. He does that a lot, believe it or not. He’s never gonna be a big K guy in relief, mainly because throughout his career he tends to throw more strikeouts second and third time through the lineup than first AB in a game. Hence, the lack of K’s in relief.
HIs LD rate is much better in relief too (his HR% is out of whack cause he hasn’t given one up yet in relief) but both of those things tell me that in relief either he (or Chooch) handles pitch selection much better.
I also think he becomes less worried mentally about “saving his pitches” and cares less about deeper counts (hence the walks) and pitch count when he’s relieving. For him, thats a good thing. Its a big reason why he gives up those meatball homeruns like he did in Toronto. He doesn’t throw those pitches in relief.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
another interesting note
Of the 6 HR’s he’s given up this year:
Only 2 have been first time through the order. (To Giambi, on a 2-2 count, and a first pitch meatball to Logan Morrison)
The other four all came 2nd or 3rd time through the line up (one of which was a second to Giambi, on the night he hit 3 in one game).
Both HR’s in Toronto were first pitch, late in the game.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
Doesn’t this imply that Kendrick (or any pitcher) has control over when they surrender homers?
by FanSince1993 on Jul 6, 2011 5:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It would be interesting to see
the splits on his relief appearances broken down based on who he relieved for. That has to make a huge difference. Would not be surprised If the bulk of his horrendous appearances came after following the same starting pitcher.
25.8/106 CURRENTLY HOT!!!
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